A short discourse today on the linkage between a good, hard sweat – while working out at manual tasks that require no higher brain function – and clearing of the mind. Which led me to a “Novel Crackpot Theory of CV19” (NCTCV19).

Part – The First

First, on the sweat-mind link.

I’ve noticed many times, that when I’m doing “mindless work” old (and sometimes buried) anger or thought-stubs about past wrongs (and people who were out to “do me bad”) come to mind.  I reflect on them, notice how they are still “hanging onto me,” bless them, and  let them go.  

A previous “Ure Crackpot Theory” (UCT) suggests a LOT of what we call “aging” is more like “swimming through the  goo of life”  in a psycho-spiritual sens ).  This type of aging is the product of confusing our own drama with the dramas of  other people’s lives.

Over time, enough “bad drama” (the “confused” think of it as karma) sticks to you.  Slows your “normal progression” and in doing so, leads to?

Aging!  (Point #1, set aside on a warm plate).

Point #2 is that IF you can “set aside”  everything at this level, you might delay aging plus enjoy a moment – or two – of “enlightenment.”

The “ocean absorbed by a drop water” experience.  Is it possible that  stress, such as induced by those “clingy” low-level “hassles” that lurk deep in memory can  zap! the efficiency of exercise induced chemistry?  Like DMT?  You know…DMT – the so-called “spiritual molecule,” right?

Which gets us to askingAre there useful insights that may arise directly from a sweat-lodge type workout (easy in East Texas when the humidity is high!) either  during or  just after exercise?

Maybe.  (Point #2 – set aside on another warm plate.)

Cooking-Up a  Crackpot CV-19 Theory

While in “sweat lodge mode” today, two things kept welling-up to consciousness that had no business being there.

The first “ingredient” was CV-19 viewpoint offered early-on in the pandemic by The Major’s Wife.  She (if you have a great memory) you’ll recall, is a PhD. in a particularly difficult part of emergency/intensive-care medicine.  Top-notch thinker.  One of her suspicions has been that CV-19 (like many other viruses) would drop down over the summer as the heat came up.  Not so far, though… over 14-million today…

The second “ingredient” was a phenomenon I noticed while director of various private vocational schools from 1986 through 2005, or so.  I ran some pretty good-sized “direct-response” media campaigns.  The largest of which was about $500,000 a year.  Lots of daytime television.  “Call now, lines are open…”

I noticed there was a decrease in response rates (i.e. higher cost per response cost seeking potential students) from about mid-April to the end of May.  After that, the cost-per inquiry went back down to “normal.”  Costs also went up from Labor Day until really cool fall weather arrived.  Double dromedary cost curve.

The response rates also varied by climate zone.  I consulted a school in Las Vegas.  Their “spring and fall holes” were bigger:  Earlier in spring, later in fall.  Made sense, because only at gunpoint would people go outside very long from May to October except for necessities!

In Seattle and Portland, the “holes” were right to into summer – smaller “holes.”

Of course, no one but a numbers-driven sales and marketing guru would have noticed it, but that was Ure, once-upon-a-time.  The difference was statistically striking:  30-40% swings on any P&L-impacting items (marketing costs) get my immediate attention.

Let’s Cook Up Some Theory!

Into a large brain, stir:  Bits of (Aging/experiential trust in self) and season with (post-exercise) change in brain chemistry.

Combine with: “Expectation of declining virus spread rate in high heat) mixed with observational data from multiple major market “ad cost per-response” data studies.

Simmer (for one sweat lodge-length workout) and reduce to something acceptable to serve the public:

Ure’s Crackpot CV-19 Theory:  Suggests that due to historically high use of  air conditioning  systems, humans no longer experience large “summer virus burnouts).  This theory implies that humans will be more likely to see virus moderation of spread when outdoor activities are engaged in widely.  (The “double-dromedary curve” periods, spring and fall…)

Modern Comfort-driven Humans do not DO extreme temps.  The theory postulates that there should be a statistical correlation between TSW (time spent watching) as in  television and CV-19.  When TSW is high, it infers that people are  indoors.  When TSW is low, the inference is people are outdoors.  Exercise, bike riding, taking sun (vitamin D, right?) and more.  People seem healthier when both “in motion” and being outside.  Instead of indoors in clouds of virus micro-exposures.”

Crackpot theory, right?

Do we have public health statistics or studies linking weather, behaviors, and human health?  Yes, some.  In fact, a quite-recent article (from PubMed.gov) seems on point.  “COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020” informs us that:

During January 26-February 10, 2020, an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in an air-conditioned restaurant in Guangzhou, China, involved 3 family clusters. The airflow direction was consistent with droplet transmission. To prevent the spread of the virus in restaurants, we recommend increasing the distance between tables and improving ventilation.

Ure’s Crackpot Theory?  As temperatures go up, virus risk may still go down.  But, thanks to “modern progress” the reduced  propagation-effect may be masked by  nearly universal air conditioning.   And that MAY mislead researchers who are having a hard time coping with the  apparent (but not real when a/c use is figured) lack of virus seasonality.

Something to think about, since next weekend at this time, the world will have more than 15-million cases.  We may passed 14-million this weekend, well-ahead of our forecast.

Part- The Second: 

Prepping Weather Forecasts: Background

As we continuously remind readers (nag!), if you’re going to have a  useful brain you have to  feed it all the time.

Our daily “brain food” (digital composting) is to read a half-hour (or more) daily from books and sources that are well off our  beaten path.

When you figure out that PDFDrive.com has a ton of .PDF and .EPUB docs on almost anything imaginable, you can simply load up .PDFs onto your computer and have the computer  “Read Aloud.” Right-click on some browsers and off you go, into the new topic while doing some of that  mindless work in Life. Sweeping shop, building something, etc…

Warning:  DO NOT UPGRADE TO “NEW MICROSOFT EDGE.”

As of today’s column, “the new” MS  Edge will not open and  read aloud from a “regular .PDF file stored on a local drive.  Non-Chromium Edge did that.

Microsoft keeps talking about “it’s coming” but (looking shocked here)  it’s late.  We learnt long-ago:  Don’t trust anyone with software until a) it’s delivered and b) it’s been wrung out.

Life’s too short to  beta test without compensation.  It’s a techno-ego sucker’s game.  *(Care to ask how I know???)

Prepping and Weather

Sunday morning is the most important part of my “weekly planning” because it’s when I look at the weather as a pilot (ASEL, thanks) does.  Look 10-days out, look at some different models, and run out which projects in your agenda fit best on which days.  Then plan 3-4 days with declining probability of being “right!”

If the project involves physical work and the “feels like temp” will be in the 80’s at 7AM Sunday, versus mid 80s after the column is done Monday, then guess how that plays out, right?

Prepping sites tend to ignore the weather.  After all, there’s not an easy way to  monetize it.   And the half-ass “prepper sites” are all about  monetization and few are really written by people who’ve spent a night in the woods.

Besides,  Davis Instruments doesn’t make a go-bag weather forecasting kit.   We do love their products (and the company_) for that matter, and have since our sailing days.

A Few Weather Basics

First and foremost is Temperature.  There are “seasonal averages” and you should have a good idea what these are where you live.  Most people, being brainless social media stooges couldn’t give you the Average December high and low for where they life if their very lives depended on it.  Seriously!

Then comes Precip.  Cold and wet leads to hypothermia. Bad stuff.  What kind of clouds bring rain?

Our Favorite Weather Tools?

Are the ones carried between the ears.

The Wind Rules:

The wind rules may be RIGHT-HAND or LEFT-HANDED.

It depends whether you want to  face the weather or  back to the weather.  Northern hemisphere.

If you  face the weather it’s the Right Hand Rule.  Facing the wind square-on, point straight out from your  right side.  The dominant low pressure center is likely out there somewhere.

If you like  back to the weather (which I always found drier in the rain!) it becomes the Left Hand Rule.  Back squarely to the wind, point straight out with your LEFT HAND and the low pressure is likely out there somewhere.

Low pressure centers tend to have counterclockwise rotations.  On a boat, a starboard tack (northern hemisphere) should avoid a troubled voyage.

Books On Weather

Preppers, as a rule, are “cash-heavy” and “brain-poor” in a lot of regards.  Marketer’s Delight!

A natural byproduct of living in an information (with lots of fiction) world.  A nice way of saying people like to believe they can “buy their stairway to heaven.

T’ain’t necessarily so.

Weather forecasting (like firecraft, practiced in the rain) is something you don’t really  master until you’ve done it – consistently – to the point where everything is a natural reaction.

Once you have basics of “which clouds bring rain” – which wind directions bring storms – and some of that, the real learning begins.

Depending on where you live?  When I lived in the Pacific Northwest, Walter Rue’s  “Weather of the Pacific Coast: Washington, Oregon, British Columbia” was as crucial to safe sailing and boat-handling as was the “Pacific Coast Pilot.

Surrounded in Texas by a 1,000-mile “warning zone” – the continuous NOAA weather radars and lots of METARS to decode from [wherever] I admit to being complacent.  But the book “ Weather in Texas: The Essential Handbook” by George Bomar (see Amazon – $22 bucks for the  Kindlized version) has clawed its way up to the top of my reading stack.  Weather is savory stuff if you have salt in your veins and dirt in your fingernails.

Read Old Books, Too

One of my spare time [whatever  that is] reading projects is a wide and deep read into lost treasures of Texas.  I have always been amazed at the ratio of people who will watch a series about some  Oak Island Treasure on the one hand, to the number of people who will actually buy a good metal detector.  Then use it.

Like a lotto ticket, if you don’t at  least try, you’re going to lose for a certainty.

Maybe its OK for you,  but I don’t need to go through life celebrating other people’s success because I’ve sat on my own ass, too much.  Know what I’m saying?

One of the books currently being “consumed” is “Rainbow in the Morning” a publication [1926] of the  Texas Folklore Society.   In the chapter “Superstitions of Bexar County [Texas] by E.R. Bogusch, I found some of the most useful “observational weather tools”  ever for this part of the world.  This is “deep in the heart of…” stuff.

  • “When wasps fly into the house, rain is coming…”
  • “If roosters crow after dark, rain is coming…”
  • “If cattle run around with their tails up, a storm is coming…”
  • “If a storm passes away quietly, there will be more rain…”
  • “If there is heavy thunder in September, there will be a good fruit crop next year…”
  • “Seeds planted in the light of the moon will grow well above ground, but will form few roots…”
  • “If the moon has a halo, the next day will be foggy or hazy…”
  • “If the soot on the bottom of the coffee pot burns, there will be rain…”
  • “When the sun sends its rays down through a dark bank of clouds, it’s drawing up water…”
  • “When wolves howl, weather will change…”
  • “Restlessness of geese indicates a storm…”
  • “When the leaves of the peach or mesquite tree become rusty, rain is not far away…”
  • “If snails crawl up the side of a house, rain is coming…”

Seems every county in Texas has an assortment of such tails.  Here in  Anderson County, it’s an established fact that if you see a turtle crossing the road, it will rain within 48-hours.

Crazy as some of these “old sayings” are, I have seen them work out to “be so” often-enough to make me a believer.

And that’s the hell of modern life.

We are very “well-instrumented” in the digital sense, yet the gradient sensitive minds  are all calcified and a ton of ancient wisdom about “walking lightly on the Earth is gone.”  Virtualized, online.

And we all do know a few things about data quantization losses, do we not?

Some things to think about.

Especially before Tuesday, when rain is due here.  Bugs told me so.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net