Step right up, folks! With the long-term market peak in, we’re gonna play Crash Call! It’s a game where everyone can win – and everyone can lose. Get the date right? Got the right financial instruments in your pocket? You could be the Big Winner. Why the odds would embarrass Publisher’s Clearinghouse. Except, for one … Read More
Warning: Do NOT read today’s column near an open window. Yeah, it’s that bad. Here we are. Made it to Friday with a short position upside down based on early futures. Not terribly worried about it, though, since we can exit on any short-term rally. It’s NEXT WEEK we need to start thinking long and hard about. … Read More
America’s end is at hand when massive financializations replace the production of real goods and services. Which is peering out at us through the data this week. Inflation is high and the early line on a Fed hike next week of 0.75 percent (or more) was over 80-percent. As a result, we have finally figured … Read More
Even if you’re not a high rolling ($40/year) Peoplenomics® subscriber and haven’t followed our 25-years of research into economic long waves and how cyclical economics is a repetitive sport, you at least might find this “big picture” stuff of interest. In our long-term work, what we suggested some weeks ago near the top of Wave … Read More
I don’t usually comment on markets when they are open. But since I closed out my short position (with a portfolio gain for the day of 5.7 percent – I wasn’t all-in”), let’s throw the notion of my much-warned-of Wave III down (iii) getting underway, shall we? Here’s my Elliott view of the Aggregate Index. … Read More
Economics today is not the simple sport it may have been at the peak of the Industrialization of the West. Anymore, it’s a multivariate kluge (or stew, if you like) and ongoing battles for supremacy of power. You can skip ahead to the CPI and other data, but hear me out: Part of looking into … Read More
One of the more interesting “games” played in the Options world is to pick the following month’s strikes (option prices) and simply go long – or short – according to what the playah sees ahead. Options expire on the third Friday of the month – which is this week late. When a market is trending strongly … Read More
A more detailed look at a possible wave count that – if it continues on track – may be the harbinger or horror, the bringer of bummer, and the foreshadow of famine as the year rolls along. Yes, it’s likely to be even worse than our alliterations. The foreshadowing is seen in charts, murmured by … Read More
Refer to this morning’s column and our thinking that a 50% retracement of a possible 3(1) down would lead to a 50% bounce around 34,256.00. At its highs so far today, the Aggregate peak has been 34,259.43. Still, this is a 4 point error (which is this range would be a rate of 1.16767865483419e-4 (hint: … Read More
Although we had legit concerns about Taiwan being subject to a Chinese grab over the long weekend, good sense (and a super-typhoon) prevailed. So, we reckon this to be “strike three” for “Divine Winds.” (For the other two in 1274 and 1281 consult your history books.) Which brings us to this morning and what – … Read More
Been doing a lot of thinking, here lately. I happened to have been hungry at the time. I was trying to sketch up a way to communicate the “whole meal deal” that we face as co-residents in a country that is doing its damnedest to lose a once commanding lead over all other countries on … Read More
With the market down to our “bounce or kiss” line, some views of how the fall could roll out. Especially key will be how certain countries (China) are feeling the urgency to push forward with resource acquisitions. Of course, these also involve acquiring whole countries (*Taiwan with Australia down the road), so it makes sense … Read More
The government’s latest Emp-Sit (employment situation report) has just been released. But before we go there some contexting is useful. First, we had Wednesday’s ADP hiring data. This reported “ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 132,000 Jobs in August; Annual Pay was Up 7.6%”. Key part of their press release was that … Read More