I don’t usually comment on markets when they are open. But since I closed out my short position (with a portfolio gain for the day of 5.7 percent – I wasn’t all-in”), let’s throw the notion of my much-warned-of Wave III down (iii) getting underway, shall we?
Here’s my Elliott view of the Aggregate Index.
In Ure’s (not quite humble, but not financial advice) view, this could STILL resolve to the upside. It MIGHT work out that way.
But better odds that this is just the (a) down of 3 (iii) to the downside tuning up. Which means the few points off a Fibo 0.618 retrace off 3(i) down which COULD have completed with 3(ii) at these levels from yesterday:
Am I disappointed that we overshot the idealized Fibo 0.618 by almost 72 points with the highs Monday? Nope. We held short and today was a payday.
From here, we could reverse and go higher any time – or, we could fall to the recent lows – and if those break – well, then Wave 3 for sure and certain and the Wave 5 downside is on the table for the election window.
From the high yesterday, we have slapped the 55-day (calendar) timer and that’s now circled as a likely real Crash window.
Off to do real work now – because when the Quest for Paper (bullshit) blows up, if you can’t grow a garden and iron sight 100-meters, you’re likely not to make 2030. Making it will take effort and an ability to see through the fog of Popular Delusions.
Write when you figure it out, but in the meantime, I’m not going to mess with the upside bounces – too risky and time consuming for an old man like me, lol.