Rejoining Our Game in Progress

I don’t usually comment on markets when they are open.  But since I closed out my short position (with a portfolio gain for the day of 5.7 percent – I wasn’t all-in”), let’s throw the notion of my much-warned-of Wave III down (iii) getting underway, shall we?

Here’s my Elliott view of the Aggregate Index.

In Ure’s (not quite humble, but not financial advice) view, this could STILL resolve to the upside.  It MIGHT work out that way.

But better odds that this is just the (a) down of 3 (iii) to the downside tuning up.  Which means the few points off a Fibo 0.618 retrace off 3(i) down which COULD have completed with 3(ii) at these levels from yesterday:

Am I disappointed that we overshot the idealized Fibo 0.618 by almost 72 points with the highs Monday?  Nope.  We held short and today was a payday.

From here, we could reverse and go higher any time – or, we could fall to the recent lows – and if those break – well, then Wave 3 for sure and certain and the Wave 5 downside is on the table for the election window.

From the high yesterday, we have slapped the 55-day (calendar) timer and that’s now circled as a likely real Crash window.

Off to do real work now – because when the Quest for Paper (bullshit) blows up, if you can’t grow a garden and iron sight 100-meters, you’re likely not to make 2030. Making it will take effort and an ability to see through the fog of Popular Delusions.

Write when you figure it out, but in the meantime, I’m not going to mess with the upside bounces – too risky and time consuming for an old man like me, lol.

14 thoughts on “Rejoining Our Game in Progress”

  1. Bear on the boat:

    Well, there is some dour sour news Ure required to digest today. Someone has to cover $1.5T in energy trading margin calls draining liquidity. That while the elites discuss whether to go +.75 or +1 next week (as if Fed powers can snuff out inflation with the discount rate).

    Meanwhile, we wait and wonder if the “can’t shoot straight” Admin. will side with big Rail or Union worker bees? No win for those wriggling to tamp down midterm losses -or- us consumers.

    Ms. Mkt. wiped out 60% of the gains since 9/6 in 1.5 hours. Bear action is brutal if on the wrong side of the trade.

    Write when you get Right,

  2. Game in Progress, aye, this Q game is getting real, when Trump reposts this photo of his self with a Q pin imposed on his jacket lapel. Imposed by who knows. Maybe Russia Russia Russia? Ask the FBI.
    I think the storm is upon US

    The Queen is gone , how is the Pope on a rope doing in his wheelCHAIR? ticky, tocky, recalls funds to the Vatican bank.. ?Why
    What does the new king and slo joe have have in common? Both had wives that were killed by crazies chasing them at high speeds in autos,, died in the car wreck, calling Dr Jill,, oxymoron,?, saver of lives or killer.
    The spinning wheel of the market, What goes up must come down, spinning wheels go round and round,, seems like a song is in there!
    Trump’s Truth Social link

    It is politics that has been the main driver of this permanent capital market vs a free market, and I thought drunk driving was against the law, ask Paul P. He refused the drug test.
    I AM selling tickets for idiots to stand in front of the fan. The 1% are getting nervous, what is their next move? to be ahead of the curve, one must think outside of the circle/sphere,
    “there is no spoon” Matrix Quote. Get rid of the box that the MSM paints around your mind, it is an illusion
    “Gold is money” someone once proclaimed
    “Gold shall destroy FED”, Q
    was there Gold stored in the Trade Center Buildings, before the boom n bust,, where is it? does the FED have the gold to back all the paper it prints? I got to get some more silver. Not big business but people will accept silver rounds, gladly.
    Scenario: the US goes under marshall law due to foreign interference in our elections [China][election machines][traitor politicians/China Joe] and the fed defaults, against a military it has lost control over, the military repossess the gold to the US Treasury. Hey it is just a scenario, planning involves looking at all possibilities
    I am not Rich, just a ‘Jack of all trades’
    the trend is ure friend and the humans show up in mass at every Trump rally, the 1% will do ANYTHING to reverse this trend, be prepared, the handwritting is on the wall.

    • Aint no Gold in US treasury – like everything else in the upsidedown, what they have in ft knox is FAKE – as the queen lizzy these past couple months, fake as biden mask wearing tool, fake morals, fake character.

      Its why US army has 2 steal whatever Gold they can where ever they can. Fed has some phyz vaulted in NYC – but that is leased Gold, several times over apothicated (re-leased off a lease)

      Q ? about that rumored obongo gold stashed in Indonesian mountains somewhere – heard that was not fake..

  3. “if you can’t grow a garden and iron sight 100-meters, you’re likely not to make 2030.”

    Eating is good when you can do it. If a person can’t lay down accurate fire with iron sights in most conditions and on the move then said person can’t shoot. The good news is that MOST people couldn’t hit the ground with a blunderbuss, so a little bit of regular practice increases your odds of survival exponentially. Don’t get over confident, though, because it’s NOT the bullet with your name on it that you should worry about. It’s the one with ‘to whom it may concern’ on it that will get you.

    • I’m pretty sure a half dozen rounds of Double-O at 100 yards or meters will produce enough “owies” to make a lot of people look elsewhere for resources. It’s a bit of a crap shoot to see who gets hit in a group but when a couple of your buddies get hit demoralization can set in and, hopefully, a retreat will be the result. That’s a minimum of 54 .32 or so caliber balls flying down range with deadly intent and I don’t think you can do much better with SAW. There have been demonstrations on YouTube showing that a 00 ball will fully penetrate a gel mock-up of a human, complete with bones and internal organs, at that range. Mind your windage and elevation.

      I love and can still use my Garand very well but I’d rather use it at a range greater than 100 meters to further increase the aggressors’ distance. Qualifications to get the rifle resulted in it not being unusual to put a round in that pie plate sized circle at 600 yards … but I wouldn’t tell the bad guys that. Let them find out for themselves. My hope is the biggest problem to solve is what to do with the bodies.

    • “The good news is that MOST people couldn’t hit the ground with a blunderbuss”

      Thanks, Maj.

      You gave me my laugh for the day…

  4. “The good news is that MOST people couldn’t hit the ground with a blunderbuss,”

    A guy here in my little town spent over $3,500 on a rifle- with all the bells and whistles…
    He still can’t hit a 3/4 silhouette at 100 with open sights. Not just the silhouette., but the entire target.

  5. So…, no rail strike until the 29th
    “The Tentative Agreement has been rejected and the strike authorization vote was approved by IAM District 19 members,” IAM District 19 said in a statement. “Out of respect for other unions in the ratification process, an extension has been agreed to until Sept. 29, 2022 at 12 p.m. ET. This extension will allow us to continue to negotiate changes with the NCCC in the hopes of achieving an agreement our membership would ratify.”

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