Markets: Wreckage and After-Mess

Even if you’re not a high rolling ($40/year)  Peoplenomics® subscriber and haven’t followed our 25-years of research into economic long waves and how cyclical economics is a repetitive sport, you at least might find this “big picture” stuff of interest.  In our long-term work, what we suggested some weeks ago near the top of Wave 2 was “Half-off by Christmas?” now looms a little larger with the financial carnage today:

Here are the bullet points, as we see them:

  • The market is due to rally and the low could come anywhere between the close today and Thursday – but this is only mentioned for “entertainment porpoises” (see world?) and it’s only the ravings of an old man in the woods of East Texas.
  • That rally might come as a covering rally Friday.
  • But things on the 19th, around burial time for the Queen could become dicey.  The U.S. has pissed off many countries over the years and with heads of state coming in for the funeral, it’s a security concern.  Remember the source of World War I was the killing of the Archduke, right?
  • What Europe doesn’t do, the Fed may – their rate decision is a week and a few hours away. Driving by data sets is a form of driving in the rearview mirror.  They may not realize it in time.
  • Not that history replays (with a nod to Guns of August) but our consigliere who has even more longwave work on his C.V. than me agreed with Monday’s secondary high.  We both slapped the timers and we are about 53-calendar days from a Crash window.  See the Moon cycles work of Stephen Puetz available on Amazon, but maybe not for the destitute.

Our tenacious (if not outright manic) holding a short position which was upside down at the close Monday was vindicated today with a bit more than “lunch money” for a change.  This was dinner money, complete with airline tickets, hotel, dinner and a show. Maybe even outside of Texas.

It is said that God favors drunks and fools. Since it’s after market closing, a drink is in order lest we be lumped in with the fool’s part.

1929’s version of Sept. 3, 1929 came and went largely without notice (except here, of course) on November 8, 2021.  We are not yet to the analog of the October 1929 crash.  Almost two months off, yet. Cycles may be self-similar, but the speed of life, communications, and evolution of market asymmetries are completely different.  The “angle of the dangle” and the heat of the beat sort of thing.

But our steadfast advice:  Live below your means, never work when you are “job scared”, and don’t go into debt except once when young for a modest home in a passable blue-collar area?  That, a stress-free life and some dandy adventures is what makes life the joy it is.

Happiness can’t be bought. But being on the front row of history and following the plot line well enough?  Yessir, that is damn rewarding, some days.

Like this one. Honored to be here.

Take care and write when you get rich,

21 thoughts on “Markets: Wreckage and After-Mess”

  1. Find a way to buy your home on a cash basis. Alternate housing like tiny homes are looking even more attractive in this environment. Just make sure you have a place to park with utilities before you start. Water is the most important. Self-perform the build on a cash and carry basis.
    Debt gives narcissistic sociopaths the opening to bully and grind you under their heel. Been a target more than once. Owning property and even the most modest of homes makes you a free citizen, and gives you options that a debt slave will never have.

  2. So I am guessing you made a good decision regarding your lunch money today, bordering on dinner ?

    Unfortunately, after all these years subscribing to Peoplenomics, I have not learned a damn thing, nor the balls to try.

    It’s a damn fine adventure that I can understand in a Walter Mitty fashion.

    Thanks for all you Gure

  3. “Remember the source of World War I was the killing of the Archduke, right?”

    No, and this may be really important.

    • WW-I began because the Emperor of Austria (HIM Franz Joseph) despite ruling half the countries in Ureup, felt he was not sufficiently-respected, and got a serious hard-on to go to war with someone respected but weak, and beat the holy bejeezus out of them.

      Archduke Ferdinand was Franz’ nephew, but the Emperor really didn’t care for him and further, Ferdy had insulted the family by “marrying beneath him.” Ferdy’s funeral interrupted Franz’ vacation, but he pointedly resumed his vaca after the Archduke became a daisy planter.

      Franz’ underlings issued an impossible ultimatum to Serbia after Franz had safely resumed his vacation. It was this ultimatum which led to WW-I.

      Franz was an absolute monarch. He had been a King, Emperor, Chancellor, etc. for 64 years and felt dissed by other Urepeein Heads of State.

      The important part:

      Franz couldn’t have cared less about the Archduke, but he used the assassinations of Ferdinand and Sophia as a tool — an excuse to destroy Serbia.

      A “trigger incident” may not happen.

      However, something may happen which can be used by a desperate Administration and a complicit Press, to manufacture or create a “trigger incident” which could be used to trap us into a war or used as an excuse to slap CONUS under Martial Law and suspend both the Constitution and Posse Comitatus. Whether Democrats hold either or both chambers of Congress next year, or hold neither, when all the price gimmicks come off our daily/weekly/monthly outgo, here in the next four months, the Administration is going to become desperate.

      Be aware and beware…

  4. I don’t even read . Sorry 73 . All I know your fbi is like the gestapo ? Nah worse the ss . You got big problems . Really really really bad. The end

  5. Speaking of trigger incidents, does this sound familiar:

    Scanning Armenian, Azeri, Russian news sources.

    Despite the Russian ceasefire, there are still multiple clashes between Azeri and Armenian forces all along the border. (NOTE: this is NOT Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azeris are trying to invade Armenia itself.)

    The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is one of the few conflicts that the U.S. is officially neutral on. We have good relations with both countries, Azerbaijan being an oil-producing state who sent troops to the Iraq War and Armenia having outsized cultural influence via its diaspora. The conflict also doesn’t fit into left-wing or right-wing prejudices. It’s not a religious war, despite Azeris being Muslim (but in practice, most are secular) and Armenians being Christian. Armenia is allied with Russia, but it’s a democracy; Azerbaijan is a dictatorship.

    • “Despite the Russian ceasefire, there are still multiple clashes between Azeri and Armenian forces all along the border. (NOTE: this is NOT Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azeris are trying to invade Armenia itself.)”

      Yes but Armenia didn’t have all those enterprises going for the ones pushing the war.. otherwise we would be there in a heart beat.. dumping wage earner workers wages and future wages away

  6. Visa, Mastercard, Amex to Track Gun Shops With New Merchant Code

    Visa Inc., Mastercard Inc. and American Express Co. will add a new merchant category for firearms retailers, a victory for gun-control advocates who have pressed the financial industry to do more to help curb mass shootings. The new merchant-category code was recently approved by an international entity that sets standards for the payments industry.

    Another reason for holding some cash…

    • What about bank-issued debit cards? I’ve not seen anything mentioning them unless they’re somehow tied to V/MC or Amex.

  7. More bully business:

    I can see burner phones making a comeback. The g-mens and N$A already have phone records and mass communication drags to tell them who an individual has been communicating with. I suppose there might be text messages on phones to pilfer, but otherwise, the goal of seizing the phone would be identity theft, since many people have password verifications through their cell phone.
    Seizures come next. If you can’t beat the opposition fair and square, then steal their money and property, and provoke them into defending themselves with random attacks. Hypothetical Example- A guy is out on a prescheduled hunting adventure, so you know he is armed; gang swarm his car in some remote location with unmarked cars and gunmen without uniforms, and try and provoke a self-defense action to justify a cold-blooded political execution. Lindell appears to have escaped with his life, thanks to keeping a cool head. Been there; it’s not that easy to keep your composure with lawmen staring a hole through you by no fault of your own, but this incident is a step beyond any intimidation and provocation tactics I have ever encountered. Fifty shades of brown in action. G@rland appears to be the most politically corrupt ever in his position.

    Beware of shopping trips, G_____. Just because you aren’t supporting Trump’s career resurrection doesn’t mean some brown shirt won’t find a reason not to like you. Once these tactics are publicized, no one will be safe again anywhere in this country.

  8. You know brother. If God sends a lady a righteous man, up right and good. Just and full of good intentions. With a High Name, trusted by Rock Legend to protect them and keep them safe while their in town. Honest, hard working and forth right. The kinda Man God thinks Highly enough of to keep around in this world and resurrect him from certain death not just once but 12 times to perform miracles on God’s behalf. A good looking fella with integrity and a good name in business and success. Who is a good father. Who’s name is so good that he can call a boss he hadn’t talked to in 9 years and that boss goes buys a $300 Kenworrh the next day just to put him to work. That is a true story. I don’t know too many people that Elton John’s tour manager says tell Andy he can shower in the dressing room next to his. We just want him back stage handling stuff. Not too many at all that I can think of. As another line from my prayer takes hold “increase my reputation in buisness and success” seems to be coming true.

    And she rejects him because she would rather smoke weed and be alone?

    Well, that rejection certainly isn’t about me. It didn’t bother me until she went on a rant about it on Facebook and I thought, wow! You are just so proud of yourself. God sent me a Just and Righteous dude, a man after God’s own heart as a gift to end my loneliness. I told him to get bent.

    Huh. Good for you honey.

    Ya, shit. Now I really like her. LOL

    I had already her name in my book of life prayer journal 3 months before I ever met her. Wrote a whole page prayer over her life. You never know who is praying on your behalf. I still hope everything I wrote and spoke into her life comes to fruition.

    I just think it’s odd that she had that reaction. And lately it is apparent that alot of women find me intimidating. Not scary but feel like they are not good enough to date me. And I think either A) my standards aren’t high enough or B) if a girl thinks she is not good enough? She probably isn’t.

    I was talking to the Pastor of that Church I been going to where I ran into the lady who blasted me on Facebook about her rejecting me. And I Said you know the one thing I know for sure in this world dude? He what is that. I said DUDE knows the shit I don’t. I only know a little bit. Now that little bit is more than most know. But nothing compared to what THE DUDE knows.

    My favorite thing about the Story of King David is not that be blame King, brought the ark of the covenant into his city or any of that stuff. My favorite part is this.

    When everyone was scared shitless and nobody would make a move.
    David said As sure as God has given me victory over the bear and the Lion HE will give me victory over this godless philistine. Then David goes out there and kicks his ass. Because he didnt say “I can do anything”. Or “i will whoop his ass.'” He said God will give me victory. Then after David dies. It gives a list of others who after seeing David kill Goliath when everyone else was scared shitless. Who went on to slay their own Giants. That is my favorite part. That his courage and Faith in God, gave him victory and later led others to have Courage and Faith to gain their own victory over things much bigger than them.

    God favors drunks? Huh. Ya really think so. Hope so. He seems to favor me. Lol

    And about that girl. Well I’m sure THE DUDE will have a talk to her about it. I asked Him. Hey DUDE i thought you said that one! He said Let me go Talk to her. I said OK. He laughed and said well you welcome.

    Well off the mountains and into the gym after work. Truly I am Blessed and Highly Fortunate! And that girl don’t see the light? Well, I’m sure there is one who will. Hahah

    I’m pretty good Catch. That is a fact.

    Okay okay. Enough shooting the shit. Time cowboy up! and get after it!

    Que: ~ Fast Cars and Freedom ~

    Rascle Flatts.

    • Uhem ONAR not “be blame “King. And of course ONAR means “becoming” in Norse. Father of Odin and all. Lol

      Stupid auto correct. Got a mind of its own ya know.

      Time go get busy on the dirt farm. Where all the equipment that moves mountains of dirt is mustard yellow. Kinda makes me chuckle time to time. Faith, mustard seed, mountains. Lol

    • “Truly I am Blessed and Highly Fortunate! And that girl don’t see the light? Well, I’m sure there is one who will. Hahah
      I’m pretty good Catch. That is a fact.”

      Well.. that is probably true.. you do still look good.. age hasn’t gotten the better of you YET.. it will.. you can still bench three hundred.. I use to bench three hundred and jog ten miles a day.. thought I could conquer the world.. built a house at 47 by myself.. and was working a hundred hours a week average.. two full one part time jobs..
      My grand daughters husband.. hard worker looks good.. but can’t stick with it.. he up and walks out of her and four little kids.. no job daycare is more than they will pay.. she can’t get any of those give away programs and everything.. it is a mess.. I have two homeless that I let stay in our spare rooms.. social services came out to see if we would offer shelter.. we did.. so do I boot out the homeless that cannot take care of themselves..
      I didn’t find out till two weeks ago about this.. she is being evicted and her utilities are to be shut off.. in a week I believe.. no place to go and IRS is still six months behind on the last years taxes.. ( that is one of the reasons why she can’t get any assistance..that is income)
      right now she is looking at moving into a camper with four young kids.. I will check with my neighbors to see if the camper can be put in their driveway.. and I will have a propane tank dropped .. the camper is a friend of hers grand mothers.. still to small but if that works out they will have access to our house and only need the space to sleep in.. I did look at renting a place for her.. but cannot the cost is to high.. the neighbors boyfriend the same thing up and vanished abandoning her and the baby.. couldn’t stick with it.. My niece and her two little ones.. same thing..
      Her husband didn’t have the stick to.. being a good looking catch is one thing.. but if your fifty years old and a rambling rose.. she was probably wise to just use you for the night good times and move on.. as a dancer she will make enough to survive.. it isn’t the proper way to make a living but single women need to live.. that is also why one in five college girls look for the two week tommies to help them with some of the costs of school..

  9. Last year I set a six year record in my trading account. Very good year. As of close of business yesterday I surpassed last year’s success.., and with many more trading days ahead for 2022., it looks to be a banner year. If I don’t get greedy, or stupid.., or a combo of both !
    Thanks for all you do and for keeping me thinkin’ and lookin’.

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