GDP Still Weak (Why no Fed increase?)

Just Out:  GDP Data: Real gross domestic product — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the … Read More

Orders: Not So Durable & Not So Good –2.8%

This is not a good one just out from Census: New Orders      New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $6.6 billion or 2.8 percent to $229.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 4.2 percent January increase.  Excluding transportation, new orders … Read More

Coping: Markets Closed Tomorrow–Easter Etc.

Been meaning to mention this to the Religion Marketing Dept.  It’s time to remarket and change up a bit on Good Friday.  You see every Friday is good.  So how about we change this name of this one to Great Friday?

Of course, Palm Sunday might be due for an overhaul, too.  Not a lot of Palms north of the Mason-Dixon, so perhaps something more inclusive.  Bay Laurel Sunday which I think would grow everywhere…..

Back to point: Since tomorrow is a semi-Holiday, we will make an effort to be cogent and to the point his morning (for a change).

First up, I got the kick of email yesterday that makes all our hard work on the Peoplenomics side of the house totally worthwhile:

George

I am up 26.96% this year, thanks to Mr. George Ure.  THANK YOU George,  I am humbled by your superior knowledge !!

Curtis B

That makes me feel totally pleased.  Making money around here is a group effort and the more brains we can harness to pull in the same direction, the better.

Yes, occasionally, we will screw up, but our Big Picture view of investing seems to be working fairly well.  Not only for us, but others, as well.

The (ongoing) Adventures of G II

My son (the one who is getting married, though we don’t know when precisely) continues to make a name for himself in something than  the AIDS/HIV research he’s doing up at the University of Washington.

He’s an article which describes on of his recent skydiving activities which marries two hobbies together:  skydiving and electronics.  “Extreme range-testing goTenna, a half-mile off the ground.”

I’ve been  coaching him to look for other airborne “product testing” ideas. 

Elaine came up with a good one:  Remember the old TV ad where there was a suitcase thrown in a cage with a gorilla, which then beats the hell of things? 

“Why not have him drop something from, oh, 1,000 feet up, or so?”

Fine idea.  Or, something like the airborne electric shaver…”a close shave at any altitude…”  Oh, the mind reels.

ANOTHER Marriage Looms

Congratulations are in order for my brother-in-law Panama Bates.  He and the future Mrs. Bates (Donella) will be tying the knot a week from today up in Dallas.

This is turning into quite the spring for marriage announcements around us.  Something in the water?

The lucky couple has been house-shopping lately, but honestly, there isn’t much in the way of “real-deal” homes in this part of East Texas. 

On the other hand, we are thinking more and more about Killeen, Texas.  You can get 50% MORE home for the same price down there.  And since Bates is a retired SF lifer, he would have access to the BX and such which would keep the cost of living down.

But they’re having fun shopping, but I know what I would do.

Bates, meantime, has agreed to return for paid house-sitting gigs.  We never leave this joint unattended.  Just a personal security bug on our part.  I think paranoia meds might help.

The Economy Ahead

Speaking of major life changes, we have put our old Beechcrate up for sale on Trade-A-Plane.  You can see the online ad here.

Don’t get me wrong:  Secretly, I hope is doesn’t sell for a while – we’d like to do our July Seattle trip in the plane.  But driving works, if it comes to that.

Flying is not particularly difficult to learn (otherwise I wouldn’t be doing it) and we have enjoyed what are now three or four transcons not to mention umpteen closer runs that we don’t even keep track of.  Like up to Branson, MO and so forth.

I’ve priced the plane realistically:  It’s not a sleek go-fast plane, but if you don’t mind the ground going by at about 130-135 miles an hour it’s a great way to travel.  Lyft and Uber have mostly eliminated the car problems.

Might be worth thinking about if you have a younger family since the outlook for airline pilots is pretty good.   As you can read about over here, the first year after getting your commercial and ATP rating (and instrument, of course) can  be lean:  $25,000 to $50,000 – the latter if you are willing to consider moving and hook up with a regional carrier.  On the other hand, 10-years in the left seat of a big jet will be close to the $300,000 per year mark.

One of the real pluses of flying?  Most all the pilots and wives you meet are not dumb.  You can’t be dumb and fly

No, you don’t need to be Superman, but something of a head for numbers will help.  So will good eyesight and getting into the game young.

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The Junior Economist Merit Badge

This morning we have two major items on the plate.  First up is a look at our Trading Model and an armload of charts so you can see where we are in the great unfolding of events.  The second part of this morning’s report is a steely-eyed look at a bunch of data and what … Read More

Rounding Up Reality

In order to make sense of the economy, we need to lay out some corner posts and then corral our thoughts inside them.   Most mornings, you can easily enough pick out four corner posts of the day by simply skimming the headlines. For today’s Reality Corral, we have selected the following: “IHS becomes latest company … Read More

Monday at the Asylum

The Futures are just about flat this morning, and in a way, it is kinda surprising.

Here’s why:

One is the item that we went into some detail for in our discussion this weekend on the Peoplenomics.com site about the possibility that the U.S. economy is being “run” by artificial intelligence, already, at some level.  Why Bush Policy = Obama Policy.

This should not be surprising, since A.I. has been used in wargaming circles for years and the Mac game Balance of Power dating back to the 1980s should have been a major clue that if one developer (OK, a genius, I will give him that) could figure it out, so could that large hungry government near you.

The second thing is companies in the UK are scamming to get out of having to file quarter financial reports with regulators and investors.  This is perhaps the worst idea out of the UK since monarchy or King George – take Ure pick.  (More in our Coping section to follow).

But the real reason I am reeling from this asylum-like buzz, at least as portrayed on television, having never been in the deal-deal, is the assortment of headlines that lead me to believe the greater part of the U.S. population is not comprehending the reality of what’s going on.

Let me give you some examples:

Mexico’s Biggest Export?

It’s PEOPLE.

And if you’ll give me a minute to explain, there is much we can learn about U.S. relations with Mexico with a quick once-over a Denmark….yeah…Denmark.

Found by legal-beagle Jeffrey W.

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Coping; Can a Whole Planet Go Crazy?

Initially, and on the surface, I would hope the answer would be a quick and immediate: No, Unfortunately, a news story crossed the wires this weekend that argues the contrary case. I refer to the report that in the UK, a group called The Investment Association is arguing that regular, quarterly, investment performance reports to … Read More

Directorate 153: When to Brief Trump?

HUGE report this morning that may take a minute to load, if your broadband is slow. That is what 14 charts and graphics plus 7,000 words will do to things. Our “First Things” section this morning considers where gold is

Counting Chickens and Keeping Options Open

came to me as a great revelation in a dream: The Fed doesn’t know what is going to happen, either. So just in case, in the Fed decision this week, they dropped from four raises being in their forward guidance

Coping: Another Peoplenomics “I Told You So….” V-1-1

here we go again: Another damn good solution, offered first in our www.Peoplenomics.com subscriber newsletter has popped from the “Good Idea” stage into Present Reality. This, as the story ran on the wire this week that: “Israel Launches First Ever

Fed Fallout: Dollar Disintermediation

Disintermediation: Traditional disintermediation is when consumers stop using an intermediary (like a bank or brokerage firm) and deal direct. The intermediary is what is between the consumer and the supplier. When the underlying dollar value, relative to the constellation of

Coping: The Future of Home Automation

a gem of an email come in from reader JW in Georgia… George, We’re reestablishing ‘Casa de [redacted]’ here in southeast Georgia and I have a big interest in home automation systems. I like the idea of ‘smart’ home