imageThis is not a good one just out from Census:

New Orders  
   New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $6.6 billion or 2.8 percent to $229.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 4.2 percent January increase.  Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.0 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.9 percent.       Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $4.9 billion or 6.2 percent to $74.2 billion.   

Shipments 
   Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, down two of the last three months, decreased $2.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $238.3 billion. This followed a 1.5 percent January increase.  

Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $1.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $79.0 billion.      

Unfilled Orders  
   Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down two of the last three months, decreased $4.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,183.7 billion.  This followed a virtually unchanged January increase.  
Transportation equipment, down three consecutive months, drove the decrease, $4.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $789.1 billion.

Inventories  
   Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, down seven of the last eight months, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $394.3 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent January decrease. 

Primary metals, down thirteen consecutive months led the decrease, $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $33.2 billion.

What’s good in the report is that inventories are not building.  But what’s bad is that while orders here are down, imports through West Coast ports are booming.  All of which is what happens when an asleep-at-the-switch government let’s corporations hijack manufacturing to least-labor-cost countries.

As a class project one of these days, we may match up voting on “free trade” and TPP with corporate contributions.  Ah, but why bother?  Baltic Dry cargo index is back over 500…just barely.

Look for the Dow to drop a hundred, or so.  And with the ISIS stories about, few will likely hold big positions through Easter weekend.

Moreover, three weeks of downside seems likely from here.  A pullback to the 1,943 S&P level is one way to look at this.  More this weekend for our www.peoplenomics.com readers.

Good for Gold, though.

The News–As a Cash Flow Problem

When you look at the day’s headlines, it is sometimes easy to see what various news items will result in…and imply where future flows of funds will be moving.

For example, the report that IS has 400 fighters trained up for attacks in Europe and elsewhere means that we will see another dramatic bump in global anti-terrorism spending.

Already there is talk of reorganizing the security systems at airports so that people will have to check in outside, rather than in.  And the Israelis, admittedly, are was ahead of most of Europe on this front.  In fact, claims this article, a whopping 40-years ahead.

About every local news outlet in a major market has reporters out looking for a “local angle” to the macro developments in Brussels.  For example, here is a Houston report on security at George Bush Intercontinental.

Still, no matter how much money we throw at problems, seems like government efficiency is marginal…organizations are slow to move and almost like to prove it, “

TSA won’t make airport security report deadline — due the day of Brussels bombings.

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America’s southern border is still leaking like a sieve, too, no matter how many books of words the political class throws at that one.

And seems like you can’t trust government numbers, either (look surprised) as the head of the Border Patrol Union says people are regularly fudging numbers to make things look better than they are.

The cash flow here is rather immediate, because as Germany has experienced, hundreds of thousands of new arrivals do need places to eat, sleep, and since anyone can get a driver’s license….we know how that rolls.  In the longer term, says Pew Research, arriving immigrants turn into democrats much more often than republican or independent.  So that’s like a two-for.

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Denver airport has reopened this morning after 18-inches of snow dropped on  the Boulder area north of the airport.

Still, getting around will be messy so if you are expecting a great sales team day in Colorado, y9ou might want to dial back expectations.

That and it is the day before a holiday for many. 

That storm is heading east today and millions will be able to sing that old Easter Carol “I’m dreaming of a white Easter.

Each year about now I reveal that I’ve always been partial to bunnies; current and former.

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Politics is just as stupid as ever.  Time Magazine seems to be promoting the unelectable Paul Ryan by showcasing a major policy speech of his

This is a difficult story to file.  I put one copy in the Paul Ryan, Mouthpiece of the Obama Wing of the GOP file.  The other went in the politicians who aren’t hearing what the public is saying by running from the same-old-way politicians.

Meantime, the foolishness of University administrators is shining brightly at Emory University which is offering counseling for those offended with the words Trump 2016 being written in chalk on a school sidewalk.

As one Ohio outlet headlined:  “Emory Univ. students traumatized after seeing ‘Trump 2016’ chalk signs.”

All we can think is “Dear God, if that traumatizes the poor little darlings, don’t let them vote.”  They have a butt-load of growing the ‘eff up to do.

Still, since we are in the middle of half-ass republicans gang up on Trump month, perhaps the school president is angling to be the next head of the Department of Education.  There’s just no way of assessing the flow of favors that far out, yet.

More realistically (something the Ryan./Obama wing of the GOP is not good at) there’s a story that a new “Q POLL BLOWS A HOLE IN GOP CONVENTION FANTASIES.”

That poll, by the way shows Sander’s would beat Trump by even more than Hillary.

Why the FBI hasn’t completed their investigation of the email disaster isn’t clear…We pray daily for the health and long life of FBI Director James Comey.  “Yea though he walks in the Valley of Clintons…”

Even though political favoritism isn’t easily converted into cash equivalents, I am reminded of my favorite saying about politics.

Politics is the art of trade-offs.  You scratch my back and I’ll stab yours.

Lincoln, Lincoln, I’ve Been Thinkin’

Low oil prices has given Ford’s Lincoln design team a way to solve the oil glut singlehandedly:  While the new “Lincoln Navigator Wows At New York Auto Show” we have to ask about mileage.

Oil slides on mounting US stockpiles, strong dollar dominates things.

And speaking of Forbes, go look at some of the major brands that marijuana is outselling.

Volt Jolt

As Tesla Model S price hike rumored for US.  Time to buy a bigger piggy bank.