AI Lives – How to Spot Rally – Buying the Investment Horizon

You know the AI mania is still alive when Nvidia jumps 7% after blockbuster earnings boost AI confidence.

The trillion-dollar server farm builds continue en masse.

But, as a skeptic and House of Cards fan? Nvidia’s GAAP EPS $2.46 printed above non-GAAP $2.22 because of about $7.77 billion in net gains on equity securities — profit from stakes in its own customers, not from selling more chips that quarter.

The Wider Economy?

Readers have the economy figured about like we do and better than many financial channels.  LOOB caught our (earlier this week) ref to “masturbatory” economic numbers. “… a good solo session has more integrity than half the economic reports being spoon fed to the neighborhoods where reality never shows up.”

Still, we have more such solutions to offer.  For example: We are planning to ask Canadian reader BIC to chair the Canadian-American Syrup Reconciliation Talks.  On humanitarian grounds until tariff wars end.

How to Spot a Rally?

Website traffic to this-here ‘lil economics corner has dropped now to the 3-million-pages-a-year pace.  Which often means a big bullish move may be ahead in coming days.  I mentioned that earlier this week. So this morning we will explain how the “headline Dow” was “playing possum” again this morning in the early futures.

The whole premise of our Aggregate Index work becomes obvious when you consider this disparity:  If you imagine three piles of money – all similarly sized (but they aren’t — just go with me on this) then the percentages of change become your calculation coach.  Got it?

New Data

Some International Trade numbers:

And a side order of new Unemployment Filings.

Hell, if Trump can hold the H-1B visa crackdown, I know a lot of good brains who might last until full retirement age.  Right now, they are thinking of “ringing out early” as imports suck up well-paying jobs in tech.

News Compressor: ON

In the Himalayan glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal–Tibet corridor: at least 273 dead and more than 1,300 missing after Wednesday’s torrent, including roughly 47–63 U.S. nationals among the unaccounted foreigners. So, is it “climate gets real” or “Glacier faces collapse”?

National fire posture is still Preparedness Level 5: 93 large fires, 22,356 personnel, year-to-date 7.92 million acres (165% of the 10-year acreage average) on the 26 Aug NIFC/NICC report. The Ross Fire west of Fort Worth was 50,000 acres / 8% contained on that official list; Texas A&M and ABC had it near 80,000 acres / 12% with Palo Pinto and Jack County evacuations and a FEMA Fire Management Assistance Grant. Hawk Fire near Reno: 15,085 acres, containment 85–93% as of 26 Aug, 47 homes and one commercial building destroyed; officials called it human-caused with no suspect named. Red flags all over the west.

Iran and Oman announced a temporary Hormuz navigational corridor and mine-clearing understanding. Oil extended a multi-session slide, Thursday quotes near Brent $87.24 / WTI $81.67. In the same window: U.S. “economic D-Day” sanctions that Tehran dismissed, a reported additional tanker incident, and a Trump “Mission Accomplished” line while the war continues. So this could help light up markets.

Escalation path to WW III is widening: Russia’s Maria Zakharova said Thursday Moscow could strike British military targets inside and outside Ukraine after Ukrainian use of British weapons and after London’s Monday grant of Storm Shadow production technology; she said Britain and France were “playing with fire.” The CIA director’s Moscow visit sets a 30-day countdown in our thinking.  Which may account for the “end of September” cluster-build in our Over-the-Horizon software future scans. Public release here Sunday.  Peoplenomics readers got it yesterday.

Almost laughably: The Kremlin said it would go to court against any revived EU plan to use frozen Russian sovereign assets for Ukraine.  Like the system would allow them a win in court?  Sheesh!

Inside Pages/Planning

Drought still about:  SPC Day-1 outlook issued 27 Aug 1255 CDT: Slight Risk across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two; hail and severe gusts also flagged for western–central Nebraska into northwest Kansas. But the west is still a baker:

Labor Day travel and outdoor work collide with PL-5 fire restrictions and lingering heat from Texas to the Pacific.

IT/GEEK Note: Here comes another vulnerability patch: Patch or isolate Citrix NetScaler and exposed SQL Server before Saturday if those boxes face the internet. Back up edge devices before the NetScaler deadline in case a rushed patch cycle takes a gateway down.

Global Strategic View: Economic warfare” is being treated in Washington as a substitute for new Iran strike packages, while Beijing and Tehran treat the same package as an attack on the dollar-clearing system. Evidence: Rubio’s “for the time being,” Bessent’s D-Day language, China’s “all necessary measures.” Matters for oil, shipping insurance, and secondary-sanctions compliance. Odds: 68%. 8 days to the Long Weekend – still room to rally (or exit near tops).

Around the Ranch: Age-Durable Investment

Here we are – on the doorstep of fall – and we are looking around wondering “Could we have played Life any better?”

We got a ton of adventuring in.  Saw most of the picture-postcard sights, have close-enough to perfect health for our odometer readings, and we live a life with a break-even point less than one-third of monthly cash flow.

But that’s the point of this “mention” because we have a three-day weekend just 10 days out and you may find “thinking space” in there somewhere.  So here’s what we recommend as a planning construct:

• Ask: “What will the world be like in five, ten, fifteen, twenty, and twenty-five years out?” Best guesses are what you roll with.
• In such a world, what are the risks, pitfalls, prices to anticipate?
• What can we buy (commit to owning) right now that will be worth more in “that” world sequence we see coming?

This is not “simple pontificating” from an Old Man.  It’s what we actually did.  We looked at the “probable planet” from 2000 and decided a tentative path.  So when push came to shove, we were prepared and made the Downsizing moves laid out in that book.

Not hard to do.  And beginning any time is better than never.  Just make the list of what’s important: rainfall, taxes, climate, personal mobility and health, food, education, technology changes that aren’t fairy tales.  Then buy that “right shoe size for life.”

You’ll be glad you did.  You’ll also find “the herd” listens to cockamamie bullshit and is led around by charlatans who come out every two, four, or six years, depending on office aspirations.

Owning your own future is the ultimate stress relief formula.

Ham Radio Note

I have been remiss in not mentioning my ham radio hobby (OK, addiction, then) lately. But if you want to be the Big Voice on the bands, there’s a used AM broadcast-band transmitter that caught my eye: an older McMartin.  On eBay here and the price has dropped to $799.  (Think of this as payback to reader Ray for all the “radio deals” he’s sent me over the years.)

As a platform for 160 or 80 meters, it’s retoolble as a linear amplifier. You know how to (carefully!!!) re-bias the finals to get into AB2, right?  Don’t tell the XYL where you heard about it…

Legacy Ham Station Note:  An old Hallicrafters S-20R will land today. This will be paired with a (homebrew) 12AU7-based keyer, an Eico 723 and a Halli HA-5 VFO to replicate life in 1964 for me. Back in LBJ days which was when a QSL card from Rhodesia meant something.

For Your Calendar: A “Sunday Special” this weekend on AI and what people are missing. I know you can work out “Which day?”

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net