Jobs: The Hype, the Data and here’s the sausage. I had to put on my “eye muffs” this morning to filter out the BS about how “Economy expected to add one million jobs in April.” Well, bubba, here’s what really happened: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little … Read More
Although the markets are continuing to present “normalcy bias” numbers, the emerging – and long-expected – reality around here is that Nassim Taleb’s book “Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto)” was less than half-right. It’s a position I took a good number of years ago. Mentioned on the Peoplenomics side. But, mostly I shut-up when … Read More
We spend an exceptional amount of time focusing on the Future around here. With good reason. Because the art of making money (or, at least losing as little as possible) is predicated on getting “some notion or aspect of Future” right. And then making meaningful bets on it. Are there some “unconventional” things looming in … Read More
We have gone from a low-interest Monday to a “Things get interesting Tuesday” with events over the past 24. Let’s begin the morning roll with: Trade Wreck People – mainly being sheep – are “conditioned” to thinking charts that go UP are telling us good news. But when comes to the Trade deficit, no, they … Read More
Monday’s news flow sucks. But that doesn’t mean we just sit around with our morning “cuppa” and idly pass the time. Instead, I pass the time arguing with myself over how much of my economic viewpoint I should keep for Peoplenomics readers and how much could be safely “teased” in public. Here’s the Answer A single … Read More
Yessir: ShopTalk Sunday. As we await the opening of the “crooked casino” now part-owned by the Federal Reserve (as presumably you as a taxbleeder), we go to our Person Caves to Create. “Directions Are Wrong” Added a few more items to the stores this week. Which meant assembling another 48 X 14 x 80 inch … Read More
While we don’t expect global war this weekend, there’s plenty of reason to be concerned with the balance of the year. We ponder the global rise of “strongman socialism” and where we might be by year’s end. A deep look at our Aggregate Index charts, as well. Since charts often do hold predictive content – … Read More