Monday’s news flow sucks. But that doesn’t mean we just sit around with our morning “cuppa” and idly pass the time.
Instead, I pass the time arguing with myself over how much of my economic viewpoint I should keep for Peoplenomics readers and how much could be safely “teased” in public.
Here’s the Answer
A single chart view MAY hint at what’s ahead.
This is much more plain that trying to figure out the Sixains of Nostradamus. But I’ll explain that in a second. Let me “decode the chart” for you, first.
This is our Aggregate Index. It is comprised of multiple market indicators. I set it up following the 2000 Internet Bubble disaster because the financial industry went from pure hype of tech to barely a mention in 9-months time. Despite the horrific (some claim up to $7-trillion in small investor) losses, with the Techs epic-fail, the stock-monetizing Hype Machine turned to the Dow and the S&P 500.
The Aggregate Index is my personal “Truth Detector.” Its main applicability is after the markets close on Friday (U.S. time). Because money needs to land somewhere. Where it lands in the “period of uncertainty” when markets are closed for weekends actually means something, to our thinking.
Red Trend Line
Four day moving average. This is a fair indicator of “the herd’s short-term direction.” If the Black (*present) trace is above the red, odds of being successfully short may be reduced.
This is a 5th order exponential trend line. Essentially, I look at this as an off-track betting adviser (OTBA). As you can see in this morning’s read, the “OTBA” might be whispering “Lower from here, George…” But, offsetting this is the possibility told in our “trading boxes” that we could still have more upside today.
This is a proprietary (which subscribers know) trend line. It’s something that has evolved from following markets since 1971, or so.
It’s my most-trusted indicator because it semi-regularly is “kissed” by the Aggregate Index. As it does so, it seems to be a good “wave count marker.”
As I look at this indicator today, it’s telling me:
- At the (black) 4 (and possible ii) we went under the indicator.
- And again, at the black iv we came down and kissed the indicator.
- Ergo, should be a wave count there…
And so, we are left this week to see which way the markets will roll. Clearly, there’s a very small 5-step, 3-wave advance over the past week, or so. But, we need fresh all-time highs. OTHERWISE we may head down to the proprietary indicator.
Of Course: This is NOT Advice
However, we see some “signs and portents” that a “top may be here or near” in the flow of the news. Let me give you some indicators.
Stock Market Stories
- We look at the Wall Street Journal as the “house organ” of “the Street.” So, when they run stories like “Americans Can’t Get Enough of the Stock Market” I can almost hear the sound of the cattle chute when I close my eyes.
- Balancing this off (besides my OTBA and chart which demands a fresh all-time high this week) there are stories where “old-hands at investing” are urging caution. Like the AP’s “Warren Buffett warns investors not to gamble on stocks.”
- And confusing everyone is the crooked, data-hiding Federal Reserve, which by my reckoning has inflated stocks more than 33 percent since what might have been a “natural high” in February of 2020. As a result of them pushing $120-billion a month into bond (and stock) markets, investors operate in a shadowland of fiat largess.
- Which is revealed in stories like the Financial Post’s report “Inflation haunts stock traders in blockbuster earnings season.“
The conjugate of which remains murky-enough that the “average American” (and ain’t we all?) is stuck in “normalcy bias.” Which is pretty-much what the titans of finance have in mind: “Spend to the End, be a Stock Operator’s Friend.”
Like Pavlov’s dogs, the “cash bells” and “good-time sells” are on and the pack is responding. “From Apple to Domino’s Pizza, U.S. Companies Scramble to Meet Surge in Demand” bludgeons the WSJ.
All of which might even convince us to play the long side, rather than skimming a few shekels from Friday’s decline. Except for one thing:
The Nostradamus Problem
G.A. Stewart’s Age of Desolation and commentary has been an especially useful futuring tool, in our view. If you haven’t taken the time for a slow, thoughtful read of “THE BEAST – I AM FIRE – I AM DEATH – it could be worth your while.
Forget about the stock market, or that other bubble (Cryptos – btw BTC is just under $59,000 U.S. this morning). The real problem is war.
Because, understand, Financial Operators and the ultra-rich periodically need a war for obvious reasons:
- People are AT consumer supersaturation. We have more shit than any of us can possibly use fully in a lifetime. So as a result, we’re renting out storage units (or storing stuff at “mom’s house” – which she got in the divorce) wondering if $800 for a video game which wastes personal energy and contributes little to society is a good investment…
- Although we have a short pop in spending due, what will happen when the wave of confidence ebbs?
The people who matter – the ones who secretly own 51% of the Class A shares of hundreds of companies – don’t plan wealth by the day, week, or month, like you do. For them, it’s intergenerational. Which is why they have money and its where, no doubt, some of that near motionless M2 Velocity comes from.
War is a GREAT financial tool. It kills people – making room for more population “growth.” It destroys “savings” so that another round of theft may be played down the road. It’s manageable, predictable, and useful in so many ways. Ways unknown to everyday worker-bees.
You’re not “all in the family.”
Which gets me to a question for Stu this morning: Is it possible that Nostradamus’ references to (Orthodox Easter) and a “demented president” might be referencing “Ukraine, Baltics, Poland leaders meet on Polish holiday“?
Moreover, we also see Tony “Blinken Aims to Pressure China, Bolster Ukraine on European Trip.”
Asked by one of my daughters this weekend, what I saw ahead, I simply answered with a few personal data points:
- When war is coming, the stock market should sell off first. The 1941 attack on Japan was when the U.S. was at the end of a horrific decade-long market decline.
- The U.S. is getting non-essential personnel out of Russia by June 15th.
- As our consigliere noted, it could be that Ukraine has told us that they have a date in mind for a possible drive to seize the Dnieper-Donets petroleum reserve region. Which will all be under the banner of “freedom” with a hefty shake of NATO.
Few people ask the really important questions when things like War pop up. but, in the world of intergenerational wealth – we have the French lineages in the USA and competitors (think oligarchs) in Russia. The Intergenerational prize?
“The Dnieper-Donets basin is almost entirely in Ukraine, and it is the principal producer of hydrocarbons in that country. A small southeastern part of the basin is in Russia. The basin is bounded by the Voronezh high of the Russian craton to the northeast and by the Ukrainian shield to the southwest. The basin is principally a Late Devonian rift that is overlain by a Carboniferous to Early Permian postrift sag. The Devonian rift structure extends northwestward into the Pripyat basin of Belarus; the two basins are separated by the Bragin-Loev uplift, which is a Devonian volcanic center. Southeastward, the Dnieper-Donets basin has a gradational boundary with the Donbas foldbelt, which is a structurally inverted and deformed part of the basin.”
That from USGS in 2001. The pools of future wealth haven’t gone anywhere.
Now that you’re armed with a semi-cohesive package of Ure’s perspective, we will now rejoin the sheep on their unwitting way to market…
Urgent? But Important?
Big Money Truck Driving: We have all read the exploits and adventures of Andy – our PNW dump truck and pup trailer gear-jammer. No matter what happens on his path, I never worry much about him. Because a clean record and a CDL ticket these days is like golden. See “$70,000 For A Part-Time Driver over on ZeroHedge.
With no Trump to kick around, and unable to criticize the Kamunist or Open-Border Joe, we’re not surprised to see CNN running “Biden’s climate push promises ‘jobs, jobs, jobs.’ Here’s what that might look like.”
Speaking of dirty politics, Texas can give lessons. “Republicans into Texas runoff after robocall claims leader killed husband with Covid.”
Which gets us into our Covid pile: Brothels reopen in Nevada; California restrictions ease; India sets global records: Live COVID updates
You sent your resume where? “Chad’s New Junta Names Transition Government.”
Things are still looking up, though. Which accounts for a “Possible UFOs spotted off Florida coast.”
ATR (Around the Ranch)
Other than watering greenhouse plants, no outside work this weekend due to the heavy rain (and flooding down in the Houston) area this weekend. One more day of showers tomorrow and then into the spring cycle.
Ure’s time Sunday was nailed with computer issues: Rolling over an aging 5200 RPM HDD to a new Crucial MX500 1TB 3D NAND SATA 2.5 Inch Internal SSD ($98). That’s got Elaine smiling at the much zippier response on her Samsung 17.3 laptop. Worked on slow server response here.
Over in the shop, plans to repair the brush hog keep running into issues. Didn’t have a set of extra-deep, extra large sockets needed to remove the stump bumper underneath. Uses as 1 1/2 inch nut. My previous largest was 1 1/4 inch.
My life-long chum, the Major, is sending 36-pounds of Rose Brand Chinese Egg Noodles down via UPS today. Company has the regular/retail (25% egg) which is what’s in many retail stores. But, if you can find the place in Seattle, the limited production (75% egg) can be had on occasion. Much better for prepping and for Ure’s NEDF (not-exactly-diet-food) breakfasts.
I’d tell you what’s on tap today around here, but honestly, the To Do list before Elaine’s second hip replacement (coming around in a few weeks) is 4 pages single-spaced in Word. Almost afraid to open the damn thing.
Got most of the outline for my next book done (“Packing for Death”) which will be serialized on Peoplenomics.
You know, sometimes I think Life ought to have a better instruction manual. If I have known that the first 2/3rds of life was accumulating thing and the final third would be playing the role of “maintenance worker on your empire” I might have been a bit more circumspect. Not complaining, just there’s not a rule book out there. I’m going to fix that in the next book.
Drop by tomorrow and we’ll see how close to last Thursday’s close we get today. Tomorrow, international trade data.
But the data highlight of the week will be another three-day jobs roll. Wednesday is the ADP new jobs number, Job Cut report and with new unemployment filings Thursday and the Federal job report out Friday.,
Today, a final PMI number at 9:45 AM but not expecting any surprise there. (I could be wrong, but I can’t recall any time recently, lol.)
Off to 750 calories of high protein breakfast and then I’ll see about opening that word.docx.
Write when you get rich,