Iraq: Has the US Cut a “Deal” with al Qaeda?

It’s a shocking concept, I know.  But the data is beginning to shade exactly in that direction.

The US stock market is set to open down 100 points, or so, on the Dow this morning because things have gone to crap this week in Iraq. 

Starting off in Mosul, Sunni militants/al Qaeda, are now pressing toward Baghdad and we find many people wondering how we could be so stupid as to think that Iraq could “defend itself” when that’s obviously not the case?

You will also see the price of oil has popped up to the $107 range.  Even though that oil doesn’t come to the US, it does go to other markets, like Europe, which will be going elsewhere for supply and that is going to play havoc with geopolitics going forward.

I spoke to Oilman2, a friend, rig engineer, and designer of specialized drilling bits, to get his assessment of things:

“Oil industry facts:

1) Largest recent find of natural gas is offshore of Israel/Lebanon/Syria – the Levant Basin. Egypt could also lay valid claim to southernmost part of Levant.

2) Working O&G drilling hub for Iraq is Kirkuk, freshly annexed by the Kurds today (officially – unofficially they been getting paid to conduct business freely by many service companies)

3) Just look at the map .

[Map courtesy of www.theodora.com/maps used with permission]

Mosul controls oil from Iraq overland. Kirkuk sits atop the largest oilfield in Iraq. Note the proximity of Kirkuk to Iran.

Note the distances: Tblisi Georgia to Damascus Syria = 1000 miles; Tehran Iran to Kirkuk Iraq = 550 miles

For comparison: Houston to Washington DC is 1500 miles…..

Azerbaijan is right there – as is Georgia go the north, Iran to the east and Turkey to the north….

The DC Idiocracy’s al-Queda rebels working in Syria suddenly have the firepower and manpower to actually take Iraq – wonder where they got all that??

My Egyptian friends working in Kirkuk left Monday for homes in Egypt/Dubai, etc.

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Coping: Friday at the WoWW–Shoes

Here’s one of our reader reports from the World of Woo-Woo which you might want to noodle on:

Hi George,

Got one that has my family perplexed.

Couple Sundays ago, June 1st, we had some friends over for a BBQ; Hoss and his lady-friend.

Spent a nice afternoon, into the early evening with them, had some beers and wine.

The next day went to get ready for work, couldn’t find my “good” running shoes, NB brand.

I have two pairs of running shoes, the oldest pair for gardening and the newest for casual, going to work, running errands.

When I buy new running shoes, always NB, then my casual shoes become my gardening shoes and I toss the oldest pair out. So I only ever have two pairs of “my” running shoes at any one time.

So, couldn’t find my casual runners, but there was a slightly used pair of NB runners near where I keep my shoes. They looked almost like mine, but are not. Same size, just not mine.

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Retail Post Mortem: Rigor Carrus

I don’t know why, but I had in my head that we would be getting the retail figures on Wednesday, but for some reason, I was running a day ahead of time.  So this morning, RoW catches up and we can get on with the reconciling the Retail figures with the Consumer Debt report from the Fed last week.

So here’s how the retail side looked:

“The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $437.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5)* from the
previous month, and 4.3 percent (±0.9) above May 2013.

Total sales for the March 2014 through May 2014 period were up 4.3 percent (±0.7) from the same period a year ago. The March 2014 to April 2014 percent change was revised from +0.1 percent (±0.5)* to +0.5 percent (±0.2).

Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.5)* from April 2014, and 4.3 percent (±0.9) above last year. Auto and other motor vehicle dealers
were up 11.1 percent (±3.2) from May 2013 and nonstore retailers were up 7.4 percent (±2.3) from last year.

“What’s a  “nonstore retailer?”  Folks like Amazon.  Who needs to go to the store when you can have UPS, FedEx, and the Post Office simply deliver the life you’re renting?

And STILL the only thing keeping us out of the crapper is?  AUTO SALES!!!

Gimme a big Hallelujah, brothers and sisters of the Church of the Almighty Dollar and let’s all go for a test drive.  We need to keep America solvent so we can support Mexico. Uh…..

Mexification? Right On Track

In light of my comments this week on the War with Mexico that we’re also losing, and in light of yesterday’s in depth treatment in Peoplenomics, we heartily recommend you read the Bob Unruh story over at WorldNetDaily this morning: “Ex-Border Agents:  Immigrant flood ‘orchestrated.”

All proven by the numbers in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics report.  Twice the Budget and almost 2/3rd’s less apprehensions.  That kind of stuff doesn’t happen by accident.

That’s a plan.

When you see headlines like “Indiana Sheriff: We Need Military Equipment Because USA Is A War Zone” realize we aren’t really a war zone yet.

But the fine folks in Washington are trying to import one, just as fast as they can.  And they’re doing a fine damn job of it.  Unfortunately.

About to Lose Iraq

Al Qaeda now owns 1/10th of Iraq.  They are on track to grab the whole thing in a blitz war which includes shooting Iraqi soldiers in order to inspire fear in the hearts of those who would otherwise defend Baghdad and other key cities.  This is “instant ugly.”

Anarchy is spiraling in Iraq and the government of Iraq is asking the US to come back in and wipe out the al Qaeda forces that have overrun Mosul and which, if my read of things is right, are about to wipe out the rest of the country and link up with anti-Shiite forces in Syria.

Ain’t gonna happen, not with these people we have in Washington.  And wasn’t McCain supporting arms to al Qaeda in Syria? What was he thinking?  Where did the arms go?  The headlines out of Iraq should be a hint…

See last night’s special www.nostracodues.com scan of the Middle East here.

I’d give it less than a month before Baghdad falls.  And a congressional investigation into how the Obama State Department screwed this up ought to be tremendously (although uselessly) entertaining after it’s all too late.

Oh, that was the plan by the Obamanistas all along, you think?

Keep a close eye on Israel now.  Since Obama has effectively abandoned Israel, and left the militants to run wild in the Middle East, the return of revolution to Egypt within a year, once militants seize Syria, would complete the encircling of Israel.

Headlines like “Al Qaeda forms up to march on Baghdad, gathering up Iraqi Sunni rebels. Maliki cries treason…” are already making the rounds.

Don’t mind me, I’ll just be the guy setting up the pool on when Israel will go nuclear in order to hang onto it’s homeland as the encirclement cinches up.

Must be something in the wind this summer:  Borders are a mess everywhere.

Eric Cantor’s constituents just happened to figure it out.

Repeating: My Breakthrough Idea for Term Limits

1.

And if we can bank online from home, how come congress can’t legislate from home districts?

More after this…

Tomorrow’s Earthquake

Well, we can’t tell you where, exactly, but there’s a weak statistical argument that when the remnants of X class solar flares hit earth that we seem to get some quakes.  So, we have this from the Solar Influences Data Center earlier this week:

The impulsive X2.2 flare peaking at 11:44 UT and originating from NOAA AR 2087 situated close to the east solar limb was reported today. The flare was accompanied with narrow CME (angular width of about 70 degrees) which will not arrive at the Earth.

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Coping: With the Reality of Demographic Change

Warm up the coffee, mama, got us a lot of “big picture” strategic thinking to cover this morning.  Starting with the borders, but as you’ll see, the inquiry leads to Vietnam, China, Iraq,and  – for good measure – the return of Peak Oil.  To begin…

A number of emails have arrived in response to this week’s comments on the “war with Mexico” that we’re presently losing.  It’s a topic covered in additional depth in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics.com report.  In that, I explain how the whole business process/workflow analysis of presidents Bush and Obama give Mr. Obama about a 50% effectiveness compared to Bush on total inbound from Mexico and South America.

Demographic (the age, sex, racial factors) of population are constantly changing.,  Small variations in birth rates, relocations within a country, and so forth, are an everyday reality.  But when so-called “leaders” ignore law, well, that’s another item.

Reader CJ opines:

Twenty plus years ago when I was volunteering in the local public school system although I was homeschooling my daughter and yet son attended… the librarian told me (I was working on a database entry for her) in 2025 whites would be a minority with Spanish speaking persons equal to or exceeding Blacks (local and from other countries) yet with Asians in the mix. Whites are a minority at the school now. The school district is a first ring suburb from Minneapolis, MN. This area started growing after the war in 1948.

My neighborhood is as such, whites as the rule own their home, with some moving out/dying and renting homes to Mexicans, Blacks, Asians (mostly Hmong and Vietnamese. Though some non white are homeowners in the area, it is not the norm. Presently there are 3 homes on this average city block that are rentals. 35 years ago (we “bought” (LOL- i know the deed says we are tenants, taxes prove it) our home in 1979), there were zero rentals, with only white couple “homeowners”.

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What Business Process Mapping Says About Immigration

A friend of mine called Tuesday morning, after I had posted the UrbanSurvival report and claimed that president Obama had “deported more than any other president in history!” Not ready to believe anything, until at least noon local time, I agreed to do a serious look at the immigration statistics, and (not surprisingly) this is another case of Ure being right, much to the consternation of many of my friends. The main lesson this morning is not to be critical of the administration’s immigration policies, but to demonstrate how Business Process Re-Engineering (BPR) is a very useful tool when you come across a complex issue, such as immigration. More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW! ||| Subscriber Help Center

Amnesty: Political “Fix” in, or Economics

No, you’re not alone:  A LOT of people are asking  a bit WT(actual)F is going on with the political parties in America on this child amnesty disaster of the administration’s making?

One outfit wondering where has the real GOP gone is Investor’s Business Daily which wonders on the Investors.com site:

“Instead of sending them back home to their parents, Attorney General Eric Holder made it a priority to hire taxpayer-funded lawyers for them. Why don’t we hear Cantor, Ryan and other GOP leaders shout that Democrats are exploiting children to further their political agenda?

Moreover, this whole crisis is of the administration’s making. Its Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program two years ago prevented minors’ deportation for two years, and now Obama has added two more years. As the immigration system becomes overloaded, disease and hygiene issues are coming into play.”

Is it a corporate/government conspiracy to rob us of an America that we knew, by brining in tons of people who historically out-produce the majority races in America by 37%?

As I noted yesterday,  perhaps.

But something else is going on, methinks and it is something so bad, so ugly, so terrible, that no one in government – on either side of the aisle – is talking about it.  So let me take a whack at it for you:

Let me remind you of what Forbes included in this 8/28/2013 story “How accurate is the concern that Social Security will one day run out?” (Emphasis added)

The Simpson-Bowles Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform had a large section on Social Security, and a chart that showed this effect, was projected to happen in 2037. Now, only three years later, the new guess might be 2033.

Now, let’s look at the Simpson-Bowles report itself which is summarized (in part) over at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

What most people don’t realize is that starting in 2020, there will be reductions in the benefits for maximum income Social Security recipients.  So the people who paid the most in will get the biggest penalty.  How’s that for fair? 

THAT in turn depends on who you ask:  All of my liberal friends will spew a cleaned up version of “From each according to their ability, to each according to their need” while the rabid conservatives will be screaming “Socialism” but that’s really a cover for “screw the needy.”

None of this stuff is simple.

But the point this morning is to suggest that the government likely knows more than it is telling us – which is likely why Ryan, et al, at turning turncoats and rolling over on amnesty.

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Coping: Adventures Beyond Sheetrock

So there I was Monday, aided by Panama and Elaine, finally getting the last of the sheetrock put into our new room on the north end of the house.

It’s not a big deal; it is sheetrock, after all.  Two learning notes for the personal collection, however, are worth sharing.

First note is to be sure and get a sheetrock square before you tackle a project like this.  The one I got was a Johnson Level and Tool JTS48 48-Inch Aluminum Drywall T-Square for about $20 bucks.

The second hint is not to try and hang it all in a single day.

Hint #3?  I know, I didn’t say anything about #3, but by now you probably forgot the “Rend a sheetrock jack” to do the ceiling” advice.

Oh, and #4?  Just in case you get your stud spacing a bit off?  In a couple of places I had to cut lengths of 2-by-2 so I would have a screwing surface for the sheetrock.  In a perfect world, all rooms are some multiple of exactly 48-inches but not in this one.  Neither is it 96-inches high, either.

And all those design accoutrements that will let in light (small glass block windows), or the “cute” 45-degree angled section to bread up sound bounce?  Oh, yes, they add time, too.

And (if you’re building a super home studio/sound/music room, running the speaker wiring into their own boxes (runs spaced out from the AC power wiring, because I’m yes, that guy, then that adds time, too.

Still, the bulk of the “roughing in” is done and now all that (should) remain is taping and mudding.

A trip around the room to make sure all the sheetrock screws are set “just so” (dimpled, but not breaking the paper of the sheetrock, strong and easier to mud that way, and we’ll be into the taping part, probably tomorrow.

Highly recommended (unless you are really a well-practiced mud-slinger: Grabber GWNS125 Wet-N-Stick Water Activated Adhesive Joint Tape.  It’s not cheap, but if you don’t like bedding tape joints (my least favorite part of the next operation), then it’s easy to use.

I just cut up 4-foot strips (folding if it’s a corner) slop in some mud, and press on the wet (moistened) self-stick tape.  Works like a champ in the other room we used it in.

The next part of the project after that will be sorting out which paint colors to you.

My tastes run toward a “fire on the mountain red” (which is almost orange) with a chocolate brown or black ceiling, all rolled on as texture paint.

The trim molding around the big windows would be dark/black, and the accents will be of the sort you see in movie theatres.  I’m thinking some big, heavy velvet drapes, as wall hangings, a couple of half columns, and black track light, arranged to highlight the walls (wall washers is the architecting term, but we ain’t so formal out here).

Then all of our music and sound gear will get powered into the room:  18 channel mixer, all kinds of microphones, the drum kit, couple of keyboards, some guitars/the violin, an old clarinet.  On the sound side: there will be a computer, aftermarket sound card, firewire connection for the mixer.  Output will be via Bose 201’s and subs (bi-amped) on the front and Bose 901 (series 2s) for the fill speakers,

An “Ultimate Home Music/Sound/Media Room” doesn’t have to be terribly expensive.  Most of the gear I’ve been accumulating used off eBay, except for the firewire mixer, mics, and a few other things (stands and such).  If you shop and know speakers and amps, though, eBay is quite the deal if you’re patient.

Don’t know if I mentioned it, but the reason for going to all this effort is that over the years, I have been involved in sound systems and studio design a bit, including managing the design/build of over 40,000 square feet of commercial studio and media instruction facilities.

Although we’re dispensing with the double doors and sound transmission coefficient glass, I’ve always wanted to build an online school where people can learn the basics of good, solid, home studio construction and basic operation.

At present, I’ve only reserved the site name: http://recordingengineerworkshop.com/ and I’ve started to draft curriculum.  Contributors will likely include Grady of our www.nostracodeus.com project, since in addition to being a crackerjack software engineer, he’s also got a fair amount of “time in grade” as a broadcast engineer in Canada.

The real prize, however, is my friend Howard Hill’s dad may go on camera when we go on our annual Seattle Adventure in August & September.  HE was the soundman at the White House for both Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson.  (You didn’t really think I was going to Seattle just for fun, did you?)

The idea is to produce a really solid “ground up” online course that will give a lot more “bang for the buck” (including all the home construction notes you’d need to build a really good sound setup in your home) and then going through basic mic technique, basics of mixing, and some introduction to workflow management in the studio setting.

The best part of it is my price target (already approved by the State, by the way), will be $29.95.

The fine print says the course will be avocational in nature, as opposed to vocational in in nature.

But I’ve been looking at some of the “high end schools” that are out there.  What they all have in common is they are hugely expensive with many touting a four year degree program but in return getting people in debt to the tune of $35,000 and up for the four-year schools and $17,000 and up for the shorter schools.

Music production (like hanging sheetrock) is one of those things that is totally hands-on.  You can read tips and hints in a book, but when it comes down to it, there’s nothing like turning the weather stripping on a door, or setting up room equalizers using a sound pressure meter, or knowing how to use a audio generator to sweep a room’s frequency response.

I certainly understand how the high-end schools have equipment that is to drool for, and sound rooms that make your ears appreciate every nuance and note.

But, on the other hand, when you look at the student count in many of these high-end schools, they seem to have great equipment (a high end Solid State Logic (SSL mixing board, for example) the reality is that once I get my studio finished it will have technical capabilities that will be more advanced than the studio which put out the early Beatle’s records.

That’s how far things have come.

We have gone from a fairly complicated massive wiring world, where tubes and equipment and patch bays and all that were standard, to a world where a few peripherals and some kick-ass speakers is about all you need, plus a beefed up smoking PC with firewire.

Racks of equipment have been replaced with VST and other plugins, but the brick and mortar schools teaching the music arts have not “moved on” in many cases.

Just for example, most still spend a fair amount of time on theory of digital recording including long (dreadfully boring) discussions of things like “quantization error.”

Yes, if you’re going to work for Dolby, or you are planning to design your own equipment, I can see forking out a few bucks to walk through signal-to-quantization noise ratios.

But, as I told a colleague (an owner of a large and highly respected/successful school) issues like A/D conversion errors and quantization considerations are quickly fading into the background as higher quality A/Ds come to market and sample speed has been going up far and fast enough that things like “quantization” error just fades off into the obsolete pile.  If you’ve got 24-bit A/D and sample rates of 192 KHz, then some of the “old school” stuff in recording engineering fades into the background.

The course I’m building is not directed at this high-end market.  It’s designed for the home “project studio” owners, or those thousands of bands that form and then break up every year – several for each high school in America, says the research.

I’m building the definitive course for people who want to just “get something done” – whether it’s setting up a decent recording of the kid’s piano playing, recording a church choir or sermon right, or setting up a small PA system at a soccer game.

But just a little “peek under the covers” at what’s going on in George-Land where there’s always… Adventures Beyond Sheetrock.

Oh, and if you have color scheme/design ideas, please send them along: 

SO:  I’m currently hot on dark ceiling, red/orange walls, velvet hangings (more sound conditioning, right?) and engineered bamboo for the floor with a Persian or modern area run centered with the Drum throne on the edge of that with the drum kit down-lit from the track lighting which will have dimmable LED floods.

But if you have a better idea, I’m sure open to them until we get the taping and mudding done and go start mixing texture paint…

We now return you to your regularly scheduled program.

Prepping Readers Want to Know

From the Inbox:

Good morning George,

My sister inlaw wants to get these little two way ham sets for everyone in the family for a SHTF worse case. Her thinking is that we could at least stay in touch over the ham waves better than anything else and who would care if we were licensed or not in that case. Here is what she wants to buy.

Baofeng UV5RA Ham Two Way Radio 136-174/400-480 MHz Dual-Band Transceiver (Black)

Our budget is very limited and this is in the ball park budget wise. I appreciate any advise you can give

Great deal on a “starter” VHF dual band ham radio. Frankly, for a radio with this feature set, I don’t know how they do it for under $30.

Get the programming cable and some software to load frequencies, though, because the manual loading of a hundred channels is not my idea of fun, no sir.

On the license, yes, it’s true that in the event there is a terrible SHTF event, you would be able to use anything, there are several very solid reasons to go through one of the thousands of one-day ham radio licenses classes (free) that you can find by going to the www.arrl.org website and poking around.

The first is that you need to know something about how the radios work to get the most out of them.  Not everyone know was sub-audible tons are, know what I mean?

The second reason is many of the people involved in ham radio are involved in community recovery planning.  I’m in RACES *(radio amateur civil emergency service) and some of the folks in clubs go through the FEMA courses on disaster management, and so on.

So when the SHTF you’ll be able to help in community recovery, rather than isolating yourself and ignoring the community when it is more important.

Third reason?  Radios have different capabilities.  By taking a ham radio license class (and get the damn license!!!) you’ll understand how line of sight works, understand repeaters, and on goes the list.

Rural Pioneer Website

OK, I am a hands-on guy and here’s the latest on my trademark ap for the Rural Pioneer website:

NOTICE OF ALLOWANCE (NOA)

ISSUE DATE: Jun 10, 2014

Serial Number: 86068949

Mark: RURAL PIONEER

Docket/Reference Number:

No opposition was filed for this published application.

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The Roaring Twenties Replay

If you don’t subscribe to our www.peoplenomics.com reports, too bad. Nice case was laid out this weekend explaining why this is looking more and more like the 1927 period. It also explains why our Trading Model has been unflappably long so much of the time.

Coping: With that Low-Motion War With Mexico

This is one of those stories which the wishy-washy, paid for, corporatized mainstream media has been failing to context for more than 40 years.  I won’t live long enough to see its end, but here’s a progress report on where we are – and more importantly – where we are going.

Not to step into a politically sensitive area, but has it occurred to anyone other than Ures truly, that Mexico is at war with the US and we are just too damn blind to see it?  This is a slow-motion war and therefore invisible.

Even more interesting is that Mexico is too smart to declare it.  And 99% of America is too lazy to see the role that narcodollars have (and will continue) to play in how American elections turn out.  They’re purchased, highest bidder, just to be clear on that nit.

Let’s begin with the definition, simplest terms, of what war is:

“…a state of armed conflict between different nations or states or different groups within a nation or state.”

Next we put on our thinking caps, because  most people consider “war” in a traditional sense; they think about AK-47s, a few crates of RPGs, and other conventionally “armed” forces.  Toss in a tank and some fighters, too, would you?

While Mexico has, in fact, been engaged in specifically this kind of armed conflict with the US it has been via population displacement and the drug cartels.  Hence, it, is true that we live in a world where “economic warfare” is just as nominally “real” or am I the only one that noticed how Russia just played the West in Ukraine’s former Crimea?  Thought about California as an analog? 

In that instance, the Russian version of our Mexico war, doctrine was to infiltrate a Russian population into the Crimea, where – over time – they became the majority.  Again, consider the US border states.

Now, I would further ask you to look very closely at the demographics of the border states, particularly California and Arizona, when illegal alien dumping and leaky borders are just an everyday fact of life.  We have a “tolerance policy” and I have never seen a good tolerance policy of any sort, but then I’m only 65 nowadays.  Maybe some day, but this ain’t it.

Obviously, the people who make policy decisions in Washington are heavily conflicted (although some say they are just out to destroy America as we knew it, as a top agenda item).  I don’t credit them as being that smart.  Still….

Conflicted in the sense that we all know that Social Security is running out of money sometime around 2040 (the last date I heard) but with any luck, and maybe if I lose 30 pounds, I will be around to be facing that financial problem.

It’s obvious to anyone with a lick of sense (which is about all I can accord an  ex-Chicago neighborhood organizer) that we need some people with incomes and an upwardly mobile lower class, all struggling and paying taxes to fund the government and Social Security system.

Germany is going great guns in Europe because Labor has a say on corporate boards of directors, so the middle class gets its bite.  But not in ‘Merica.  Here, the bite is given only to the shareholders.  The result is a hollowed out (and stupid, frankly) middle class that is uninvolved in preserving or building our country.

U.S. LOSES SEX WAR

Your memory may be faulting (what this being Monday and all) but if you look back to September of last year, CNN was reporting what?  “Baby bust:  U.S. Births at record low.”

In this story, we read how the birth rate (2012) was down to 63 births per 1,000 capable women.  But just so’s to do apples to apples, that was a (2012)  birth rate per thousand (both sexes, genpop) of  13.68.

MEXICO, on the other hand, same source, comes in at 18.87 per thousand in 2012 – basis their genpop.

So the Mexican proclivity to reproduce is 1.37 times what the US rate is in an even analysis.

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The Roaring 20’s Replay is Now Underway!

This morning’s report was to have been titled “What’ll Be Left Standing?  (2) The Matrix” but something much more important is coming into focus:  Yes, a huge blow-off top in the stock market with a Dow north of 20,000 is likely in the wings.  But it takes a lot of background to understand the dynamics and where it leads.  One reason to expect it is in the Fed’s Consumer debt report out late Friday.

In our Wednesday report, we delved into some of the drivers of the New Depression and explored how certain social trends, like “children” living with their parents well into adulthood are helping moderate what would otherwise likely be a much steeper and faster descent into economic hell.  Of course, the flip side of it isn’t all that pretty:  Kids coming home drive the parents to work well past what could otherwise have been an early retirement age, but for the kids that don’t have the jobs to support the home sales that live in the house that Jack built.Note to nonsubscribers: Finest nursery tale ever, and it explains more about economics than most four-year programs and a good number of post-grad schools:

This is the horse and the hound and the horn

That belonged to the farmer sowing his corn

That kept the rooster that crowed in the morn

That woke the judge all shaven and shorn

That married the man all tattered and torn

That kissed the maiden all forlorn

That milked the cow with the crumpled horn

That tossed the dog that worried the cat

That chased the rat that ate the cheese

That lay in the house that Jack built.

But, then again, most economists I would argue, know plenty of math yet don’t grasp the circularity firmly.

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Unemployment Rate: 6.3% Again

Hot off the press from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, and transportation and warehousing. Household Survey Data The unemployment rate held at 6.3 percent in May, following a decline of 0.4 percentage point in April.

The number of unemployed persons was unchanged in May at 9.8 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 1.2 percentage points and 1.9 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (5.9 percent), adult women (5.7 percent), teenagers (19.2 percent), whites (5.4 percent), blacks (11.5 percent), and Hispanics (7.7 percent) showed little or no change in May. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier.

As always, we have our whiteboard out to scribble some important notes on interpreting the data:

    • The report admits that the civilian labor force grew by 192,000 in May.  A cynic, if we had any of those around, might ask if these people just stepped of spacecraft or returned from Mars?  Where were they in previous reports?
    • The labor participation rate held steady at 62.8% which is exactly neutral.
    • And Table U-6 (total unemployed plus part timers) was 12.2% down from 12.3% last month.  Perhaps a few more burgers needed flipping.

    And last but not least, the CES Birth Death model created (by estimating into existence) 205,000 jobs in the latest reporting month.  Biggest increase was in trade and transportation and construction.  Business  and professional service growth got whacked.

    Other Data:  The average hours worked held steady (33.7 hours per week) and average earnings to hour was up 3-cents an hour.

    But it was 10,000 new jobs in manufacturing versus 198,000 in the services sectors, which means what?  Repeat after me “Goods jobs are going extinct.”  Thanks, robotics, China, Mexico, and lesser Asia.

    Stock market reaction?  Dow up 50.

    More after this……

    Live Gov’t Snooping Admitted!

    Holy smokes!  Out comes a report today from Vodafone which is a bombshell:  It’s called the “Law Enforcement Disclosure” report.  From the website:

    The report is intended to:

    • explain the principles, policies and processes we follow when responding to demands from agencies and authorities that we are required to assist with their law enforcement and intelligence-gathering activities;
    • explain the nature of some of the most important legal powers invoked by agencies and authorities in our countries of operation;
    • disclose the aggregate number of demands we received over the last year in each of our countries of operation unless prohibited from doing so or unless a government or other public body already discloses such information (an approach we explain later in this report); and
    • cite the relevant legislation which prevents us from publishing this information in certain countries.

    Vodafone, seems to me, is doing the stand up thing by disclosing what is going on and they have acknowledged that secret cables from government agencies are connected to network equipment and those allow live monitoring of what people are saying.

    Vodafone is calling for an end to this wide open approach, but since it’s a regulated environment, it will be interesting to see what kind of heat government applies for outing the illegal surveillance practices.

    The UK Telegraph has a good summary of what’s going on at this link, or skip back up to the top link but understand it links to the long-form Vodafone report, but it certainly lays out the playing field.

    Friday Metals: Whatsup with Gold and Silver?

    I’ve been hearing from friends in the jewelry industry that they are (in  the very short term) not particularly bullish on gold. The reason, in  part, is the US consumer isn’t really flush, and there’s good supply for now and a lot of those “used gold” shops in the strip malls have closed down.

    But here’s the interesting part: A couple of advised me that silver may be getting ready for a “big run” and one number that is popping up in the discussions is $60-$70 an ounce.

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    Coping: Restoring “The Dream” (II)

    I mentioned the other day about how much of America’s potential is being squandered because we have not been able to articulate a new – and worthy for all – American Dream.

    One of our long-term readers, William, was part of the “last big dream.”  You know the one?  About putting a man on the moon.

    His personal experience here, but notice the ‘vibe’ and now much is lost today:

    Those were brave days, they were. They were exciting. Anything was not only possible, but we figured we’d surely do those Anythings one day before too long.

    I wore the short-sleeve white shirt with the narrow tie and the engineer’s pocket pack which had several flavors of writing sticks, and a small Keiffel & Esser slide rule.

    From the mid-1960s to the mid to late 1970s those days burned brightly, and we were all IN it, and we were all DOING it.

    On a road trip for my job, I was at Hughes Aircraft in El Segundo, California, and I met a cleaning lady tidying up the men’s room, who said enthusiastically, “We’re going to the Moon!” — and she naturally included herself in the “we.” And she was dead serious.

    I was firmly in that “we” as well.

    It was exciting, thrilling, purposeful, and important.

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    Huge Depression Marker!!! Negative Interest Rates Arrive!

    OMG: Stop the presses, put your coffee down and pay attention:  The ECB this morning has announced that some of their new rates will actually be negative.  From the ECB Website:

    The Mario Draghi press conference is going on now, and it’s on streaming from the ECB website.  Key:  Negative rates!!!

    Bit for now, looks like the Dow will pop about 50 up at the open.  But we’re just sitting back remembering that “free money” interest rates cause a phenomena I call “Ure’s Discontinuity” which is when interest rates argue for infinitely high stock prices, while the reality of a collapsing economic paradigm argue for zero valuations.

    That’s the kind of asymmetry of expectation that isn’t clear to many people in advance, but when a large number of people wake up to the idea that the market is horribly overpriced because there is no growth, then you get an endogenously arising nonlinearity.

    Screw government policy…it becomes irrelevant (as negative rates prove).

    You’ll know the moment of recognition -when it gets here- by another name:  Crash.

    Jobs Numbers versus Interest Rates

    We have a couple of employment numbers to ponder while we wait for “offishul” numbers to arrive tomorrow morning (same time, same website).

    One is the ADP report which claimed creation of 179,000 jobs in the private sector last month which sounds OK on the surface, until you look at it through George-colored glasses.  Here, put these on, and I’ll show you how the world looks.

    We begin by looking at the number of people working in America in April.  This shows up in the April Employment Situation Report Table A figures:  The number employed in April was 145.669 million.

    If we add 179,000 people in may, that ought to bump the number of people working up a good bit in tomorrow’s report. That means jobs growth is running 1.48% annualized, or at least that’s one way to figure it.  So the good news is that with population growing around the 0.7% annualized level in America, there should be some progress being noted in the economy.

    And there is.  What matters is how much, and will it hold?

    This morning’s the Challenger Job Cuts report came out and hints maybe not too much longer:

    “Job cuts climbed to the highest level in more than a year, as US-based employers announced plans to reduce payrolls by 52,961 in May, according to the report Thursday from global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.”

    However, there’s the matter of the Fed’s Beige Book out Wednesday.  It found that “Consumer spending expanded across almost all Districts, to varying degrees. Non-auto retail sales grew at a moderate pace across most of the country: Although improved weather generally gave a boost to business, lingering wintry weather in the Northeast continued to weigh on sales in parts of the Boston and New York Districts.

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