The Roaring Twenties Replay

If you don’t subscribe to our reports, too bad.  Nice case was laid out this weekend explaining why this is looking more and more like the 1927 period.

It also explains why our Trading Model has been unflappably long so much of the time.

With Monday here, there’s not much of anything going on today, except the markets look to open about flat.  There will be some wholesale numbers tomorrow, Treasury budget Wednesday afternoon, Retail sales Thursday, and producer prices Friday.

But all, in all, you can tell it’s summertime:  Maybe not officially, but people are taking lots of three day weekends and the news flow is slow.

With the futures flat, we notice that silver is outperforming gold and crude oil seems to have taken up residency around $104 a barrel.

The Triple A fuel gauge report shows summertime is here:  $3.653 per gallon is the national average at the moment.

The part to notice here is that regular is only 2-cents higher than it was a year ago, which is a bad thing in one sense.  Not that I want you to be paying more, mind you, but it does argue deflation which I’ve been cursing about for the longest time.

About the only big item in business circles is that Tyson has come up with a winning bid for Hillshire products over in the supermarket.  Smart move, since it will give Tyson’s even more shelf space in the grocery stores.

Merck is planning to acquire Idenix, a maker of hepatitis C treatment options.

When money rates are so low, it’s bound to cause a spike in the mergers and acquisitions arena, so look for more of the same in other sectors as well.  Rich get richer and the poor get what?

Payback’s a Bitch Dept.

You know Russia has been very “dis-happy” with our (gum chewing at D Day) president what with all the sanctions and all.

So now, Russia is looking at paying for some of their foreign trade bills in Chinese renminbi.  Payback’s a what?

More after this.

Losing it:  The War With Mexico

While this morning’s Coping Section has a broader context, we note that the administration is expecting a quarter of a million illegal kids  to show up here in the next two years.

What’s more, looks like Eric Holder is going to turn this into the full employment for lawyers act – without the inconvenience of having congress involved, of course.

Speaking of Genius

Those Taliban leaders who were swapped for what’s his name, have been out about a week and here we go with a major airport explosion in Pakistan for which the Tali’s get scored.

28 dead in this one…so, we have to wonder, how many more are we planning to send off to the other side?

Congress?  Who?

Proof of “Domestic Terrorism?”

Five Las Vegas police dead in what’s being called a “white supremacists” attack.

Don’t look now, but this heinous crime may be used as a “reason” to up surveillance of constitutionalists and those who question authority.  I can almost envision government providing “dissent licenses” in the future, but round ups are much less work.

Remember: It’s OK to disagree, it’s not OK to take violent direction action.

Except in the voting booth and with your wallet contents, as we often remind.

Oil: This is War

Yessir, this is how the run into Peak Oil is going to look: violent.

This morning we’re watching the reports out of China on how Vietnam and Philippines are causing provocation as China is trying to get oil rigs into the potentially rich Spratley Islands and another group of islands to the west of the Spratlys, the Paracels.

The BBC story over here has a pretty good map that outlines where the contentious islands are.  I can see them making a case for the Paracels but the Spratlys?  China must have gotten a deal on some crack on that one.

Look for China to get sick of Hanoi’s intransigence on this and just go in and wipe out  Vietnam in a week or three of conflict.  That will be that.

Beyond Politics

I know you’ve seen (lost count of ‘em) politicians caught with their hands in the cookie jar, or their pechewzelwhackers somewhere else, sobbing and being all contrite, and such.

And it’s always good cocktail hour conversation to speculate if their confessions and begging for mercy and reelection is really that sincere.

So with this in mind, quick, go read the report that “Rats are capable of feeling regret, scientists say.”

We suspected it, but now we have proof.

Somehow, that’s reassuring, isn’t it?

Going, Going

Kit Webster’s Market Commentaries are going away…at least for now.

I’ve followed Kit’s work since back in the University of Colorado Long Waves discussion days in the mid 1990s.

If you haven’t been to the site, last chance…get it while you can.