Year: 2013

As we mentioned to Peoplenomics subscribers, Elaine and I tried out of of those “Slow TV shows” and it was wonderful.  For one thing, it was quiet, for another – no commercials.  Just the kind of thing needed to help us adjust to getting up an hour later, going to bed an hour later…

A lot of research has been done on circadian rhythms and I was not exactly surprised this morning to awaken at the same old time, which is now being mislabeled  as 3 AM. Not that I’m really griping too loudly, since part of its my own fault: Of all the clocks around here, I don’t suppose you’d care to guess which one (on whose side of the bed?) I forgot to set?  Wasn’t self-adjusting…

Since conspiracy theories are popular, and because I haven’t run across a c9nspiracy based on the idea that Daylight Savings Time is a plot to prematurely kill people (thus keeping down the “useless eater” count), I looked through the Wikipedia entry for some support.  Check these snips out:

“Health problems can result from a disturbance to the circadian rhythm. These include seasonal affective disorder (SAD), delayed sleep phase syndrome (DSPS) and other circadian rhythm disorders.^[56] Circadian rhythms also play a part in the reticular activating system, which is crucial for maintaining a state of consciousness. In addition, a reversal in the sleep–wake cycle may be a sign or complication of uremia,^[57] azotemia or acute renal failure.

Studies have also shown that light has a direct effect on human health because of the way it influences the circadian rhythms.^{[58][59][60][61]}

Is there a link between increases in obesity and diabetes down at some low (barely measurable) level?

“Shift-work or chronic jet-lag have profound consequences on circadian and metabolic events in our body. Animals that are forced to eat during their resting period show increased body mass and altered expression of clock and metabolic genes.^[62] In humans, shift-work which favors irregular eating times, is associated with altered insulin sensitivity and higher body mass. Shift-work also leads to increased metabolic risks for cardio-metabolic syndrome, hypertension, inflammation.^[63] It is thus further assumed that this is not only what we eat but when we eat that matters.

And do disruptions in circadian rhythms have other adverse fallout – like airliner crashes?

“Due to the work nature of airline pilots, who often traverse multiple timezones and regions of sunlight and darkness in one day, and spend many hours awake both day and night, they are often unable to maintain sleep patterns that correspond to the natural human circadian rhythm; this situation can easily lead to fatigue. The NTSB cites this situation as a contributing factor to many accidents^[68] and has conducted multiple research studies in order to find methods of combating fatigue in pilots.^[69][70]

Can people adjust?  Sure, and we’re doing that now….sort of.  But it seems to me that if there’s all this obvious negative impact from circadian disruptions, why mess around with it at all?

Most people don’t realize how many versions of “time” there area.  But you’ve got a circadian clock inside you, you have “royal time” all based off Greenwich, local time (regular and daylight) to go with that UTC and Elaine has a hell of a time remembering the proper offset for the boys in Arizona.  And even there, the Navajos observe it, while the intruders down in the Valley do not.  Go figure.

Also sharing this common sense are people in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands plus the US Virgins.

And a reader of ours in Indiana sent this…

My little family lives in the southern most tip, Evansville, IN.  My husband’s family all reside in Pike County, specifically in the Winslow area.  I hate this change so damned much because it screws with my ability to meet obligations concerning them on time.  Half the time up around there, I don’t know if some of those little towns are on the change or not.  If you look close on a map, you’ll see my area is right around that damned border and not all communities are on it (if they can help it!).  It’s my personal belief that when this damned day comes, it should be referred to Daylight Menopausal Time since it gets people pissed off, hot and cold, and makes a general mess of their state of living, for a short time at least.

Although you’re have to deal with a bunch of popups, or login with a FB account, the National Geographic seems to be on this bandwagon too with an article here which questions this whole time-changing drill.

Somewhere in the dark halls of Washington, there’s got to be a group of psychologists who are laughing there asses off at the joke played on us.  I am imagine their glee…

“I’m not sure ‘Mericans could be made much dumber…we made up “time” for them, pulled on over in the Kennedy case, they believe the moon story, think contaminated vaccines are good for them, and we steal 3.24% of their wealth year-after-year by just printing up more money.  And now we’ve gone just CRAZY with that and they STILL don’t get it, ROFL. 

Yessir, they believe just damn near anything…Hey!  I have it…let’s run another mixed citizenship guy for president in 2016, shall we?”  [ROFL again]

And somewhere in this [once great] Land of Ours, some hapless sonovabitch  (or daughter, for that matter) is going to arrive at work early.  Which ought to set off peels of laughter among the insiders who tell us what to believe, and what not. 

Their joy should peak around sidereal noon.

Monday at the WuJo

Further to our recent chats about how macro-time is getting a bit slippery lately:  Try this reader report on for size…

, I go out for a run every day at lunch when time allots and calendar is clear of meetings. I go with one of my dogs who loves to run too. I usually go for a quick two miler. AS I get out of my front door the mailman was putting mail in my mailbox.

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Not Everyone will be talking about the BoSox this morning, and since we don’t care about sports much (other than the sports of job-keeping and face-feeding), we wanted to gloss over all that baseball talk and get right to the nitty-gritty just out from the Bureau of Economic Amazement…except that ain’t happening until a week from tomorrow.

What’s more, some economic reports, which people actually read in order to figure who’s telling which version of economic truth will still be delayed in December.  The BEA schedule is over here, if you’re interested, but it bring up an interesting economic point.

If you had a government which has, oh, 83% of its workers around, don’tcha think the delays are a little, oh, you know, freaking absurd?  At the present “recovery rate” we may see ripples of our near-encounter with economic reality blubbering out into 2014.

Since we already know government can’t roll out software on schedule, and since they’re taking so long to play catch-up (which would never has been permitted in private industry), what say we make it three for three?

How about government spying on Google and Yahoo and putting a nail in the coffin of the arguments that “terrorism” (quick!  bow down and prostrate yourself before Authority) made ‘em do it.  The EU is planning payback…and you know what they say about payback is a…what?

The US, I’m becoming quite embarrassed to say, as lost its ever-loving mind.  And like they say, fish rot from the head.

Meantime, what we know about employment is from the Labor Department weeklies:

In the week ending October 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 340,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 350,000. The 4-week moving average was 356,250, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 348,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent for the week ending October 19, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 19 was 2,881,000, an increase of 31,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 2,850,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,878,750, a decrease of 10,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,888,750.

And the waiting resumes around here for something we can sink our teeth into besides the typical month-end beat down on gold and silver, which ought to be along any old time.

Flooding in Central Texas (Updated)

We will update this morning’s outlook as the morning wears on toward our regular publishing time ( 8 AM’ish Central) but a few notes early on (4:30 AM ) since our part of Texas has some widespread power outages and momentous rains coming down.  6” in the past say here in the East Texas Outback.

Boy, did it ever rain overnight here.  We have now had 11-inches of rain since we got back from our travels last weekend and an amazing 10.5 inches of that fell overnight.

In fact, it’s starting to make the regional (overnight) news with stories like “Flash floods swamp cars, homes in Central Texas…”  Other reporting is available here.

Are there many economic stories to cover?  Well, yes…and no.

For one, the Social Security increase this year will be a lousy 1.5% and while this is going on, there’s a “bum’s rush” starting to try and convert the benefit basis to chained dollars, which would shrink benefits even further.

A little logic will show clearly what’s going on.

First, we assume that government would never raise a benefit without overwhelming public outage.  And even then – like bankster and Detroit bailouts – they simply hang up on the calls from back in the home district.

Secondly, they would never change something unless it would have some effect.

Which gets us to curtain #3:  It’s another screw-job in the wings.  Grab your ankles, they’ve gone death in Washington once again.

Oh, speaking of bailouts gone bad, Your Tax Dollars At Work lost $9.7 BILLION on the GM bailout?

It sure feels like having bailed Detroit, the screwing of Social Security beneficiaries is part of the plan to paper things over.  And no, 1.5% isn’t keeping up with the grocery bills, since hedonic adjustments to BLS numbers understate apples to apples grocer costs over time.

This an ultra-slow-motion screwing.  How slow?  Well, the late Senator Robert Byrd wrote about it in his “Bird’s Eye View” report back in May of 1978.

And things have only gotten more-so since. 35-years is a lot of slowly screwing the numbers around.  Unanswered is the question what the 1967 market basket survey would cost today with no adjustments – just item-for-item.

What Washington policymakers seem to forget, when they are trying to minimize the cost of Social Security, is that a) every dime that seniors make is spent somewhere, thus every dime given in Social Security is spent.  And b) everyone leaves life broke.

So the common sense of it is that by trying “to cheap” on Social Security, government is actually trying to put the brakes on a key segment of the economy.  Which is NOT how to end a recession, just thinking out loud.

Dow futures down 40 and gold down $7.80 at 4:37 AM…maybe someone else gets it?

More when it get some coffee…power’s still out… and…

45-minutes before the open, gold was down almost $15-bucks, and the Dow was about flat, but that sure smells of some taping painting, since the NASDAQ and S&P were down more.  A nickel on the side says down another 50 (or more) on the Dow today, but there’s no money on it. 

It’s just not a bad expectation in a country which seems to have lost its hustle, ability to put out hard work, oh, and lost its way at the same time.  Splendid!  Wucking funderful.

Constitution’s Going, Going, Gone…

…at least so the headlines keep hinting.  And about the only one to notice is Senator Ted Cruz of Texas who is now being critical of Eric Holder;s DOJ for arguing that an international treaty can trump the Constitution!

I can hardly wait to hear how my central government apologist liberal friends defend this one. Might as well turn every local cop into a Fed and be done with it, eh?  That’s the track and that’s the push, near as I can see it.  (But then again, I’ve been up all night, so don’t mind me…)

More after this…

No Change from Fed

Not that it came as any surprise (NoDoz, please) but the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday.  And from the sound of this, it’ll continue being print-to-win for many months to come:

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens.

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The WuJo is a place not unlike the Twilight Zone, except, unlike Rod Serling’s fine capers, ours are real-life events reported by readers.  And what better way than this one from John M:

Hey George,

Last week I was celebrating my birthday by using my coupon for a free piece of cookie cake with drink purchase. I picked the piece with a vanilla frosting leaf with chocolate accents because I love vanilla and chocolate frosting and dislike the other colored frostings (they just taste different.)

So I get to my parents house and partake of my cookie cake after dinner. It was delicious as usual. Just as I had about 2 bites left my parents called me out to show me something on TV. So I put the cookie cake back on my plate and walk out.

When I sit down out there they start the show up and I go to finish my cookie cake and notice that my once delicious vanilla frosting had now become the not as good flavored yellow… just in the time it took me to walk out to see them.

They panicked a little when I mentioned this thinking something was wrong with it, however, being a long time reader of yours just figured I was the victim of some flux in space/time and now had a yellow frosted cookie cake. So I ate it and, other than the not quite as good yellow frosting, no other side effects.

Thanks for preparing me for such oddities in life,

John

He’s not the only one reporting oddities and inconsistencies in how Universe works.  We report them frequently – and if you have one of these oddities where things that shouldn’t take place in life actually do take place, by all means, send them along to george@ure.net and put the keyword WUJO somewhere in the title so they don’t get lost in the flood of emails…

Rammed and Ready

As mentioned in our 3 AM’ish (power and personal earthquake forecast post) my brother in law (Panama) wad some time Wednesday and so between us, it only took about 3-hours to get the old Dodge truck back and on the road again.  I have to say, it runs like a top, everything is just smooth as silk.  Quiet, the engine purrs, and I’m pleased.

But I’m not the only one sharing knowledge and insights on this “home vehicle repair” stuff.  LOTS of reader feedback so here’s a sampling:

You just crossed over that invisible demarcation line that separates the haves from the have nots.

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Reader Note: Check back about 8:20 AM Central for the Housing Data…

We are starting to see a number of stories appear which give us “cause to pause” and think through what could be coming in the way of further, large-scale, banking changes which could impact living in ‘Merica.

For one, last week the European Parliament voted to suspend its US SWIFT agreement over the spying on global leaders.

And, having been caught red-handed spying on leaders of France, Germany, and presumably tons of others, the Obama administration  says it MAY suspended spying on allied heads of state.

Next week see the press release out that  “U.S. and Mexican AML/CFT Supervisors Sign First-Ever MOU to Exchange Financial Information to Thwart Drug Crime.” 

As though this isn’t enough, we found it interesting that the FDIC is working on cooperation and cross border resolutions with the People’s Bank of China.

This latter memorandum of understand (MOU) is particularly interesting because it essentially sets up something that in banking would be akin to the Washington-Moscow hotline that was set up back in president Kennedy’s time.  Except this one says (in part):

In emergency situations, it is expected that cooperation between the Parties will intensify as well. The Parties will endeavor to notify each other of the emergency situation and communicate information to the other as would be appropriate in the particular circumstances, taking into account all relevant factors, including the status of efforts to address the emergency situation. During emergency situations, requests for information may be made in any form, including orally, provided such communication is confirmed subsequently in writing. The Parties will endeavor to provide information as quickly as possible during emergency situations. Either of the Parties may request special meetings in an emergency situation to address issues of concern, as appropriate.

To be sure, there are now some who fear the US is headed toward a two-tier currency system.  That’s a scheme under which a dollar would have one set of purchasing power inside the US while foreigners would have to pay some penalty.

That, for now, may not be in the wings, although China is reported lightening its US bond purchases. 

But around the world, two-tiered currency regimes have not worked out well, and Cuba, just last week, decided to ditch their two-tier approach.

While we await the typical month-end period where Gold is beaten down, usually by $50 or more, so big players can load up on it again, we have to wonder whether it’s only a matter of time between when additional quantitative easing collides with what have been, thus far, very contained inflation expectations.

And if you click over here and look at the Gold ETF (GLD) versus the S&P, you’ll see that gold’s long-term decline we’ve discussed with subscribers seems to be well underway, so any sudden decline in the economic outlook now might trash gold to the sub-$1,000 levels in the shorter term.

Long-term?  Government’s going to print more money.  But the trick of investing is to figure when to get off gold and into stocks, and we’ll leave if to your good sense to look at the charts and arrive at your own conclusions.

Oh, and one other banking note from Madison Avenue Mike, spied in the NY Times this morning:  People too poor in ‘Merica to get conventional (emphasis on the con part?) are now turning to microcredit.

Could it be that as microcredit evolves, it could challenge the establishment banking system?  One can only hope, since members of the House, trying to jump-start election purchases, are bending over for Wall St. to roll back Dodd-Frank.  Can’t protect the sheep forever, figure the wolves and besides, who’s looking?

More after this…

Obama Caught Lying

Remember when the president calmly said that if you had a health plan you liked, you’d be able to keep it?  Well, here we go, proof positive that the administration knew that millions would not be able to keep their health insurance but lied about it anyway.

Meantime, more than 1.5 million have reportedly lost their healthcare insurance already – and gosh, are we having fun yet?

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the NY Post headlines that “Docs Resisting ObamaCare…” and perhaps with sound reasons.

Spy vs. Spy vs. Lie

Meantime, the Obama /lie meme is appearing in headlines like “Obamacare and NSA spying: What did Obama know, and when did he find out” are showing up.

The Rasmussen Reports latest presidential tracking poll shows more than half of Americans now disapprove of how the administration is performing.  83-0percent of democorps are keeping the faith while 88% of republicorps oppose.

But to me, the independents are what matter and that’s 59% disapprove.

The Army Sucks – FAT!!!

Apparently, in order to work around obesity problems, some US forces are turning to liposuction to pass weight standards.  The ABC L.A. affiliate says nearly 2000 people were kicked out of dot mil land over weight issues in a recent one-year period.

Iran War Watch

Our resident war-gamer has this update on timing of that Israeli attack on Iran which is in the wings:

George

The LA Times has a worthy piece on the proposed nuclear negotiations with Iran:

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-ross-iran-diplomacy-20131029,0,6562941.story#axzz2j6rEcwqd

The Times offers a six step process for confronting Iran’s potential nuclear weapons program.  The 5^th step concludes with the recommendation to “initiate new military deployments and make clear the support for Israeli military action if conducted.”  The sixth step then warns the U.S.: “do not waste time!”

Diplomacy unquestionably has its place, and in this case that place is to swiftly present reasonable offers with clear deadlines backed by a visible and formidable show of regional military force.  Such a display of force might involve a group alliance or series of individual alliances with the Saudis, Turkey, Egypt and Israel and Jordan.  An Israeli alliance would certainly have to stand apart from the others, but as the only Middle Eastern nation with a viable nuclear arsenal at the ready, they must be folded into the mix.

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