13-Million Cases: We Were Right, Damn it!

The Globe is just passing 13- million cases. Right now, today.  And the worldwide death toll is in excess of 570-thousand.

This gives you – the American news scavenger – an opportunity to do some serious “sorting of bullshit from fact”.

UrbanSurvival is (and continues to be) one of the few sites not focused on the “horrors” and “blaming Trump.” Instead, we try to make measured, reasonable predictions.  Then take measured, responsible positions.

We’ve been gloving and masking since February.

A number of our readers were appalledand promised never to return – when on March 9th, we presented the column:

Forget the Virus: Fear The Greater Depression

In which, while virtually no one else was “putting it out there” we unabashedly forecast that by July 12, the global case count would be in the vicinity of 9,525,218.

We were wrong.  It’s just now passing 13- million.

In that same report, we forecast a death toll globally of 333,299.

Wrong again.

The  actual came in over 570,000 dead.

We were LOW.

“Why Are You Mentioning This?”

Two reasons:

The first is to those cranky readers who blamed  us for spreading the word (and  fear) about the pandemic.  And who called this site a “doom-porn” operation.

The facts are becoming pretty clear on that point.  We were underestimated.

The second reason?

The stock market, a couple of hours back, hit what we have long-held to be the possibility.  That is, that our Aggregate Index would likely retest (and maybe better) the February 19 Aggregate all-time highs.  It would be fueled by made-up money, not reality.

On that one, we’ve been right.

Whether the market rolls over from here (possibility #1) or whether the Fed can continue to “Make Up Money” and further dilute the purchasing power of the U.S. Buck and we keep going up – at least for a while (possibility #2), remains to be seen.

But, I would match our simple, home-spun 5-day rate of change virus model as being at least as good – and likely better – than ANY other media (and our own government was forecasting) in the mid-March period.

We don’t know what you’ve done with the information; whether you stocked up “between the wave” or not.

A Final Point

In this morning’s first column, I mentioned a report that has projections from the IMF for the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa region.  In a nutshell, “sucks mightily” is too gentle a way to put it.

In the report itself (direct from the IMF report here) you can see in stark relief what governments ALL OVER THRE WORLD are doing:  Trying to “paper over disaster” by printing up too much money.

Here’s the part to pay critical attention to:  (See yellow highlights)

“What am I looking at?”

Overall fiscal balance line:  Going down 10.6% this year and a further decline of 8.7% next year.

But on the inflation line:  Up 8.3 and up 8.9 this year and next.

And for the oil producers?  EVEN WORSE.

Our Fed is pumping double the dough…which means we could see much higher inflation much sooner than later.

Fiscal Symmetry in Collapse?

Close enough for home use, Bubba.  Inflating money to “balance off” a nearly equal (or thereabouts) decline.

This is why the (crazy) stock market looks like it might yet on to new highs.  Because its like the airspeed indicator on an aircraft in a fully developed stall (which is what CV19 is becoming):  The ASI will still  read zero, as the plane’s wings are ripped away at terminal velocity.

That’s where the world is this very second.  

(You can thank  Peoplenomics subscribers later-  for making this site and our research possible.)

What matters most RIGHT THIS SECOND is to look clearly now at where WE’RE REALLY going.

The mainstream is too controlled.  The political parties too partisan.  The 1% only interested in themselves.  And the Marxist / Antifa types are two-bit thugs sensing a power vacuum.  Which it’s not.  Bernie-nomics is bankrupt…demand destruction has gone global.  The IMF calls it.

It’s something else. Something much worse.   It’s why I wrote in Mid March:

Forget the Virus: Fear The Greater Depression.

It’s almost time.   As Jimi put it:  “ …the hour’s getting late…”

Write when you get rich,


15 thoughts on “13-Million Cases: We Were Right, Damn it!”

  1. With the choice of two certifiably mentally ill presidential candidates to choose from, I think it’s fair to call the USA a failed state.

    I communicate regularly with Argentinians who experienced the complete failure of their currency, and Venezuelans who saw their country go from the wealthiest in SA to the poorest, and they have no doubt what the USA will look like 5 years from now.

    Anyone who publishes COVID stats without publishing comparative stats for cancer, heart disease, malaria etc. along with it Is just supporting the agenda to scare the hell out of people to make them submissive.

    And keep in mind that the COVID virus has yet to be validated with an extraction test anywhere in the world. This requires an extract of nothing but the pure virus, which then must be used to infect someone that then shows the symptoms. So the possibility remains that there is no virus causing all this.

    And if you look carefully through the statistics and remove the uncertified (fraudulent) death certificates listing COVID, the diagnoses made using the wrong tests, and the actual death ratio of “infected” to deaths, this whole COVID19 thing is a nothing burger in the scheme of things.

    This whole scenario was concocted to cover the fact that the world financial system failed back in October 2019. COVID (and BLM) are just diverting attention away from the people who really caused this.

    • Sadly Mic, you’re absolutely right. But “We must, must, must improve our bust” (as Elaine quips now and then).

      The Bust we see is only a shadow of heists seen by older, wiser men who live apart. And projection, a scape-goat.

      But, hey! We rode it down today, so in the bust we trust…for now.

      Ure feels like Warren Miller looking to snowboard down an avalanche…Sense is we’re all going to go Phil Meier now (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgC35HCZUDo)

  2. But… can how the deaths are counted be trusted? Seems from what I’ve read, theres a financial incentive to overcount. The hospitals need income and they found a way to over classify to get it. The Fed is being very gracious in their compensation.

    “THOMAS PYZDEK May 20, 2020 at 12:11 pmReply
    On May 16, 2020 it was reported that The US was Dramatically Overcounting Coronavirus Deaths. The web site Town Hall reported that the definition what was a covid-19 case or death was simplistic. “The case definition is very simplistic,” Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of Illinois Department of Public Health, explains. “It means, at the time of death, it was a COVID positive diagnosis. That means, that if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means, technically even if you died of clear alternative cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it’s still listed as a COVID death.”

    • Yeah – I see that Robt. and its a damn fine point.
      The problem I face – when the analyst beanie goes on – is once you start to make adjustments to the data which are [subjective] then you quickly begin the moral hazard slide (MHS) which lands you in no better condition to state a “fact” than either of the corrupt political partease…

    • Your comment is fooey. Covid deaths are being under reported. Year over year deaths (1st qtr) in the US are 123,000 higher for 2020. This is above and beyond what is being reported as covid deaths. What could have caused this spike?

      This is a great explanation of many countries that are experiencing higher than average deaths and they aren’t being attributed to covid. Maybe there is an outbreak of heart attack or stroke deaths.


      • “Maybe there is an outbreak of heart attack or stroke deaths.”

        Congratulations for making a cogent hypothesis.

        Patients with chronic pulmonary and circulatory conditions ARE dropping dead in much higher than average numbers. They are afraid to seek medical attention, and are often discouraged from same by their medical caregivers. Their avoidance of prompt medical attention causes a manageable issue to become a fatal issue.

    • They also count deaths as COVID if the antibodies are present — indicating the deceased had the virus and survived it.

  3. George, I had a dream last night. It woke me in a sweat.

    Out of nowhere a large swarm of locusts came and ate everything in sight; the crops in the fields, the grocery shelves in the store, the supplies we had stored in our basement, even the food on the table. We swatted and smoked and tried our best to stop them but to no avail.

    Right before bed, I remember watching the news of the couple in St. Louis that protected their home and property from the “peaceful” mob that destroyed their gates and threatened them with death and destruction. The couple had their guns taken away and now face charges for protecting their property. I went to bed angry and disgusted.

    Perhaps the dream was a vision of things to come as you have predicted. The locusts seem to be multiplying!


  4. One of my favorite quotes out of Freakconomics refers to the most powerful words in the English language, “I don’t know.” IDK.

    Like you, I read stuff. Try to sit down and think what makes sense or what is my next step. We were a state epicenter in Williamsburg, VA, early on in Covid-19. We’re a tourist town. A college town. And, a small town all rolled into one. We have seen an increase in cases, but not deaths, of any consequence. People stroll Duke Gloucester street, same as the always do in summer. There are more tables and chairs.

    Recent data here, a radiologist friend is seeing Covid increases. All are in obese people. Should we be surprised?

    Two sides of me. Fear about Covid-19 is obsessive and depriving youth, our future, of life. Very poor communication by our government. But, it’s terrible on most subjects. And, often wrong. View Nam, WMD, Russia-collusion, etc. I don’t know why anyone would have any faith in a government spokesman (Fauci).

    Yes, we’re in a Depression. You called it, as did others, like Gerald Celente. Flat market maybe the best we do for a long time. We should assume more unrest as we wait for work to resume for the non-semi-retired people.

    In tennis doubles, the phrase, “I got mine” seems appropriate. All of us with graying hair have ours. Other than transference of paper and material wealth (homes, gold coins) to our kids, we’re the enemy of our children (student debt, killed economy). We’re darn selfish, as the gray hairs before us have been.

    I don’t know why we just don’t live, experience joy, and shut-up already. Let this next generation create whatever they want. If it is Marxism and darker complexions in their progeny, they will find out what works soon enough. Sending money to higher education institutions is not high on my list. It’s not there at all. They have ruined critical thought. We will be witnessing their spectacular demise, I would expect. They offer no value.

  5. I went back and pulled some of your predictions. You projections have evolved a bit:

    Date of prediction: date projected; total cases projected.
    02/23: 6/29; 344,174.
    03/09: 7/12; 9,525,218.
    04/30: 6/3; 9,989,133,167.
    5/13: 7/12; 23,791,173.
    6/13: 7/13; 12,416,328.

    The wild exponential growth period in late March and into April was a time of mass panic, and your projections reflect that. Your projections in early March were quite good, good in May, and pretty much spot on in mid-June to date.

    Looking back again at the mid-June projections:
    Date of prediction: date projected; total cases projected.
    6/13: 9/01: 29,347,313.
    6/13: 10/31: 82,386,968

    After that we move into the late fall to winter transition, with the possibility of mass movements of peoples away from lost jobs, evictions and foreclosures. Camps are not safe places any time, and during a pandemic, they are not the place you want to be. Cut your losses and find a cash rock in the stream to hang onto. I don’t see any large-scale happy outcomes this coming winter.

  6. “Let this next generation create whatever they want. If it is Marxism… ”

    If Marxism comes to the United States, it will come to everyone, everywhere, because the one adult in the room will cease to be. (I’ll get howled at by George’s non-U.S. readership over this comment, but y’all can’t prove me wrong…)

    Once it comes here, it will never leave anywhere. One thing the kiddies and other useful idiots don’t understand, is unlike various social and leadership “experiments” which have been tried and abandoned as not workable or viable (see “New Harmony, Indiana” or Massachusetts’ “healthcare for everyone” initiative), should we become socialist, whether communist or fascist or some hybrid or other iteration, the power structure will not allow itself to be either abandoned or “voted away,” and there’ll be no place to which to “just walk away.”

    You can only sell your granddaughter for food, so many times, before there’s no food to be had, no matter how young and attractive she is (read accounts from Venezuelan escapees.) You can only steal food while it exists (ibid.) You can only grow food if the government says you can (read Mao’s farming initiative) and there’ll never be enough (see Mugabe’s farm “plan.”) Marxism can not work, unless there’s a complementary “capitalist” system to make and grow stuff, and engage in commerce with the Marxist regime, because once people realize they will have the same amount of stuff whether they work or produce, or not, they invariably stop working. Once they do, without a working complement elsewhere to supply capital and necessities, the Marxist government, in order to survive, has no choice but to enslave the working populace, and eliminate the dead wood… And the government WILL survive, even if none of the governed do, because governments are gigantic bureaucracies, and every bureaucracy’s “prime directive” is its own survival.

    I can be utterly cold and heartless, when it comes to letting ignorant youth learn life-lessons via the “school of hard knocks,” but that is not an option in this case, because once done, it can not be undone and once systemic, assures the extinction of the human race, thousands or millions of eons before such an extinction would naturally occur.

    Such may happen in any case, but we who’re now living, are utterly worthless life forms if we do not do what we can, when we can, to inhibit and if possible, eliminate this danger to our planet and our species, while we still can.

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