Over on the Peoplenomics side of the house we keep a very interesting chart for subscribers that’s updated twice a week.
As I mentioned in the Wednesday report this week, we are in an odd divbergence globally: The US market has been dropping and the global has been rising. Figuring this can’t persist very long, our guess has been the bearish view that the global market should fall.
Indeed, the only market of those in our Aggregate Index that didn’t run in the red last night was Australia. This also has the potential to resolve another conflict: This is where our long-term global indicator has been bullish whille the US indicator has been negative. We’re standing-by for resolution.
About the Job Cuts Report
Just out from Challenger, Gray, and Christmas:
Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 40.2 percent in April to 36,081, the second lowest monthly total for the year, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
April’s total belies a trend for increased cuts after announcements in March hit a 23-month high of 60,357. March’s total was the highest since April 2016, when 64,141 job cuts were announced.
“Most of the cuts in March came from a single announcement, but an increase in large-scale job cut announcements could be on the horizon,” said John Challenger, Chief Executive Officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
“With rising wages, near full employment, and solid job creation, we may be in for a market correction over the upcoming months,” added Challenger.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compensation costs rose 2.7 percent over the last year. Employers added 326,000 jobs in February and 103,000 in March.
One of these days someone will uttery the phrase “wage-driven inflation” and the smoke in the theatre will be smelled.
The Federal “offishul” numbers at this time tomorrow. Bring popcorn.
Other Fresh Data?
And Productivity & Costs: Lasbor Departement press release:
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 0.7 percent during the first quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.8 percent and hours worked increased 2.1 percent. (All
quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 3.6-percent increase in output and a 2.2-percent increase in hours worked. (See tables A1 and 2.)
Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.
Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2018, reflecting a 3.4-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 0.7-percent increase in productivity. BLS calculates unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity. Increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor costs, and
increases in output per hour tend to reduce them. When the change in consumer prices was taken into account, real hourly compensation declined 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2018. Unit labor costs increased 1.1 percent over the last four quarters.”
Throw in the ADP job number from Wednesday and the US jobs data could be anticlimatic tomorrow.
Rudy Does Hannity
The Rudy (Trump defense team) appearance on Sea Hannity’s show last night seems to be the only story on Drudge this morlning.
The key thing we found in the Daily Beast version of the story is that Rudy says that campaign money was not used to pay off Stormy Daniels.
With everyone having “lawyered-up” on this, I come back to an interesting legal question:
It seems to me that if a person demands money for their silence that could be construed as either extortion or exaction.
In the Daniels case, I am still not following how involving lawyers as intermediaries in any way “uncolors” an extortion act – or what seems to be such.
In murder, if you farm that out to a third party, you still get the needle. So have extortion or exactly walks around this seems specious.
Greater legal minds than mine, lol.
And then there’s the fallout from Mueller’s Hooker and Fishing Expedition: ‘God damn you to hell,’ Michael Caputo tells Senate intel panel. Damn shame the whole senate didn’t get his wrath. They are all complicit swamp critters.
Can I vote, yet? They gotta go.
Kardashian for President
A good while back, we were in mid rant one morning when the keyboard spewed that since politics is more about name familiarity than competence or qualifications, it would only be a matter of time until one of the Kardashians ran for president.
Given the impossible mental fog presisting in pharmacologically-impaired ‘Merica, the Kardashian would crush all opponents. Social media’s wrecking the world…but I digress. That was then.
Was it a joke?
Well, not so much, now.
We direct your attention to Vanity Fair’s article today about how “Kim Kardashian Is Teaming Up with Jared Kushner for an Actually Good Cause.”
Repeat after me: Name Familiarity Matters! And no much else does. And social media lowers the barriers to access with the most dangerous symbol in all of modern tech.
Making Up Money in Depression II
Let’s assume you understand the following economic facts. First, deflation is afoot in the world. Second, the G-20 is trying to “out print” deflation by flooding everywhere with paper money. Third, all this paper money looks like there’s inflation, not delfation and it’s a clearly modulated use of Modern Monetary Theory as pioneered by that master of economics Robert Mugabe who turned a whole nation into trillionaires.
Now study this: ECB making ‘substantial’ inflation progress.
Hand me the pipe and the Zippo Deluxe.
Just as another example of runaway megalomania, here’s more from the cast of dancing clowns in Brussel’s: EU legislature wants Venezuela elections to be postponed.
Perhaps I missed the EU annexation of Venezuela? Venezuela needs to tell the EU (along with their two-bit commie leaders) to take a flying foxtrot uniform….
The EU still hasn’t gotten over their imperialist colonialism. Slowest damn learners on the planet. It’s like Texas claiming political superiority and telling Canada when to vote.
But this is how the socialist/left operates. Sticks in their nose in “for the good of the people.” PC when they do it, paternalistic colonialism for others. Gads.
Hawking’s Last Paper
So many worlds, so many dimensions….
Trade Talks Resume
Markets watching these trade talks closely. So are we.
Future’s down 100 on the Dow and my sense is there’s a lot more downside ahead…but that’s just a bear talkin’. We don’t offer financial advice…you pick your own hemlock. We’re just edjucatin…
Moron the ‘morrow.