Workflow Thursday: Retail, UI Files, PostFed and Wave 3

by

Excuse the long title, but oftentimes, we poor writers need to make a list when there is a lot to cover.  Days like today…with a lil ADHD in the air…

Now, park your sensibilities and come with me…

Retail Really Matters

Can’t run a country on political payoffs and war-making, can we?

Just out are the latest Retail Sales figures and a chart:

“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.4 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 6.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2021. Total sales for the September 2022 through November 2022 period were up 7.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2022 to October 2022 percent change was unrevised from up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2022, but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 16.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from November 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 14.1 percent (±3.0 percent) from last year…”

Big Important Note!!!

When the Fed really does get its wish – and prices come down on the inflation side – what we will see in the stark debris will be that RETAIL DOLLARS will collapse.

I know “Shut up Ure, you whine all the time about this damn made-up paper versus widget count hole that will open up and swallow America when least expected….”  

Yeah, but it’s true, I tell yah.

Any good news in retail has to be tempered with the latest shipment information coming from the ports and railroads.  Port data will dribble out between now and next week, but the rail picture (Association of American Railroads data) is worrisome:

“For the first 49 weeks of 2022, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 11,376,119 carloads, up 0.1 percent from the same point last year; and 12,810,570 intermodal units, down 4.9 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 49 weeks of 2022 was 24,186,689 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 2.6 percent compared to last year.”

Intermodal means containers.  And, honestly, the silver lining here, if you have a construction outfit, a farm in the Outback, or just want an easy get-away in the woods, you can pick up a use HI Cube 40-foot container for about $5,000 and that’s the tall containers with 9-feet of interior headroom, even after finishing.  They’re 9’6″ overall.  With only one trip on them, more money, sure: about $6,500.  But shop around, wheel and deal.

I’m always shocked that there is a “storage unit industry” in America.  If people lived more streamlined lives…less crap…lower risk of “things owning you” rather than the other way around… Rich of me to talk about…

On and new business formations has fallen on its ass, too:

I’d offer an insightful remark, except I was taught “If you can’t say anything nice, then don’t say anything at all.”  Oh, like not a democrat, huh?

U.I. Filings

We have been somewhat worried by the slowly creeping increase in unemployment compensation filings the past couple of weeks.  Since we think of these as a bellwether of things to come.  Today?

We worry too much, I suppose.

Post Fed Blues

We managed to pick off a cheap lunch with all the market machinations around the Fed rate decision Wednesday.  Up half a point and that made the dollar stronger (more buyers for our version of made-up money).  Which in turn ripples out to?  It takes fewer of the stronger dollars to “buy the Dow” and that makes the reported price go down.

This ain’t all bad, I tell you:  Reason is it keeps the price of imported goods (and raw energy products) down.  The bad news, however, is that on the long wave economics side, we see that the Big Slide (The markets and BTC peaked Nov. 8, 2021!) is likely to continue at the open today.  Early futures looked like this:

The problem that should be visually apparent:  we could drop below critical support if we slide today down more than the early futures.  All it will take for that to occur would be worrisome news out of somewhere in left field.  (Ukraine’s to our left if we look the right way.)

We will just have to see how all this unwinds, though looks to us like the market ought to rally ahead of the weekend, just based on what our odd brand of research tells us.  Differential parabolic SARs looked ready to rally, the MACD was in position to move up as were the money flows into the market (Fed uncertainty is gone) and nuttiness in Europe would drive any sane people to move their money (and future plans) out of a region which is stepping on Kosovo to join NATO.  AYFKM?

More downside action is possible, but the real line in the sand is lower support.  And although our personal money-management style is best suited for casino use, we are mainly odds players who like to bet on the side of the House.  That’s where the money is.

Crypto-Crapto

Say, if you really like buying at the high and holding, you’re really going to be sucked in with the BTC rally over $18,000 this week.  Why?  Because in our view, this is still the Elliott wave counting equivalent of a shit sandwich until it busts significantly above the overhead trend channel resistance.

We love fairytales as much as the next person, but how many conmen does it take for people to wake up, seriously?

Today’s financial therapy for the gullible includes: Where Is Gary Wang? SBF Previously Said The FTX Co-Founder ‘Is Scared’ and how about Musk Sells $3.6 Billion of Tesla Stock As Twitter, Recession Fears Grow?  What we really want to know from a financial engineering CEUs standpoint, is whether Musk moves are driven by the Tesla stock decline, the Twitter costs, or is this just what eventually happens when cryuptonistas get into rehab?

 Global Stupidity Check

For the liable trial, we are not saying the specific entities here are stupid.  Only that their reported behaviors lead us to ask in that direction.  Some examples:

Do they own a shoe company, or something?  Planning to walk more? Europe’s largest bank vows to stop funding new oil projects globally.  Oil-hating is the new economic racism, we suppose.

Someone besides us think this is a rip-off of Heathkit?  WP: US plans to send Kyiv kits to convert conventional bombs into guided ones. Will the instructions be in…er…what language?

Having been too dumb to “work it out” we look for Ukraine to explode going into Christmas week:  They are preparing a sweeping attack from Lviv to Zhytomyr: Elite Belarusian forces with new tactical markings have been deployed on the border with Ukraine. Wait!  Did I say explode

Does this sound like nuke-talk? Sure does to us: Statements of Russian Commander: “We cannot continue the war by conventional means – Our resources have limits” (Video).

The West just keeps doing things to piss Russia off.  This week’s Ure-a-peein stroke-o-genius? Kosovo leaders sign application request to join EU.

Meanwhile, China is building 100-year supply lines from Africa while all we have is drooler-speak like Seeking to compete with China, Biden assures America’s support to Africa at leadership summit. All talk and no action – unless you kick in 10 percent.

Interesting to Notice

Women Drivers? In car crashes, women are more likely to die than men. This new crash test dummy could help save lives.

Data reach means data breach?  Senate, growing number of states move to ban TikTok – UPI.com

AND keep an eye on SEC “Reform” because we’re really wondering where the special favors carve-outs will be as US Securities and Exchange Commission proposes biggest overhaul in two decades.

ATR: Prepping Food Threat

Our long-lived (19-year-old) Zeus the Cat is holding on, but still on the mend.  He is well enough to trip people – me – and that’s got my left knee sprain re-torqued.  Thanks pal.

But the most interesting thing about Zeek’s recovery is he has decided to invade the grow room garden beds.  In the process ruining most of my Romaine crop!

As you can see, he’s lost a lot of weight.  But for whatever reason, he’s now sleeping in the lettuce.  Is there more oxygen?  I’ve told him “You’ll never put on any weight eating lettuce…”

“Want a side of cat butt on the peppers and bok choi too, fatso?” If lippy is healthy, he’s on the road to recovery.

I’ll put in a planter of iceberg next.  Hopefully, they will be too uncomfortable to sleep on.  For now, I’m wondering whether to pour some chunky bleu cheese on the cat-in-a-manger…

“Oh, just lettuce be.”

Write when you get tossed (ahem…)

George@Ure.net

41 thoughts on “Workflow Thursday: Retail, UI Files, PostFed and Wave 3”

  1. “Will the instructions be in…er…what language?” George I’d like to take English for $100! Because it will be our guys breaking the parts off the sprues and gluing them together!

  3. “war by conventional means”

    Nuclear war is our destiny.

    After Warsaw gets nuked Washington will say the same. A normal person is not going to hear the call only to be incinerated leaving generals with limited choices. We’re not talking 911 Iraq…. or Bin Laden. Some enlisted folk may pick-up and just leave service.

    A paradigm shift is coming.

    Russia should load up the tanks, get the Asians ready to caravan and neutron bomb all the major cities in Europe. After flood it with newcomers like the American Indian experience.

    • https://youtu.be/QyGTCGan1co

      Guess thats why “flee flee” was heard among the whirling derishes..coming frm some sarmoung recently, rare indeed..

      ? Why do they seer USA as under Libra ?? curious, USA is under Cancer – see birthchart – perhaps to occult S.A. and Israhell, being as how brains been ‘addled’ via those volatile and most toxic of fumes.

    • Your ignorance is showing, the American Indian experience took 400 years.

      I will take neutron bomb over 400 years, Alex, for $10,000.

      Look at the destruction of the once White majority countries via immigration, and diversity and multiculturalism. It shows you what 50 years of diabolical collusion can do. You know Barbara Spectre and ilk, George Soros, Joe O’Biden, and all the big minions along the way. George Bush’s 1 and 2, Clinton, O’Bammy, then all across the pond scum (EU, UK, et al.), one nation after another falling like dominoes to planned invasion and rape of their most vulnerable, disarmed, toothless, and lacking balls.

      People only wish they had 400 years to fight and a reservation to go to.

  4. Ummmm, me thinks Z cat is doing more than just sleeping in the lettuce. Last winter during a long cold spell the wife invited Momma the Barn cat inside. She too is getting on in years, the cat, not my wife, and not wanting to do battle over it I conceded when it was agreed I would not be on the cat box duty roster. That is until I was watering/feeding the 3 Lemon trees in the sunroom. Let’s just say I found some unwanted additional fertilizer in their containers. So Momma the barn cat was shown the door.
    Stay safe. 73.

  5. “Women Drivers? In car crashes, women are more likely to die than men. This new crash test dummy could help save lives.”

    Question is, where did they find a female crash test dummy since there is no longer a definition of a woman? Wouldn’t they just use a regular crash dummy and call it a woman?

  6. Guess some folks went against sanctions and got into som trouble. Ain’t suppose to be makin deals with Russia …

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/12/13/sniper-ammo-smuggle-russia-charges/10889558002/

    Meanwhile, did ya hear Biden traded Russia a basketball player for The Merchant of Death? – I guess the only thing that matters is what side of the agenda you’re on.

    Speaking of shoes, we went Christmas shopping last night. The mall wasn’t as busy as Christmas’ past. There was a lot of merchandise to choose from, if you could dig through the mess … looked like it was thrown and scattered on the shelves. Folks really lack organization skills these days. First pair of tennis shoes I picked up … $200. Average price, $160. – most were marked down.

    Wife looking at winter coats. Shows me one and says, “Something’s lacking …” I said, “stuffing”. Winter coats are more like fall and spring jackets. Wouldn’t keep you warm if they had electric heaters in them.

    One thing I’ve noticed, Where are all the pregnant women? I’ve seen one in maybe 6 months. Use to be quite prevalent. Aren’t as many little kids at the mall as there use to be … seems that way to me.

    Oh yeah, couldn’t believe we saw a lady with a tattoo of Volodymyr Zelenskyy on her top right forearm.

    Man, it’s a (different) world out there. Sheesh.

    • I’ve noticed the lack of pregnant women too! Even a store like Target where their market is largely young married women, there are none. I’m quite convinced from many sources that the vaxx is sterilizing them and perhaps men too. A few slip through the cracks and actually maintain a pregnancy, but the common media has never mentioned this. The insane(or coopted) schools have “mandated” covid shots, including recurrent boosters and these things are still EUA. There’s strong evidence that immune activity against the “spike protein” cross-reacts with other proteins in the body and placenta. We’ll see how this all shakes out – the lack of kids will become painfully obvious rather soon.

      • @George

        “Could just be that couples, homebound during the biowar started thinking before screwing.”

        Or it could be the economy.

        You are familiar with the anecdote that women’s hemlines predict the following year’s financial trends? There actually are studies done on economics and social tendencies or proclivities, including those of sexual behaviors. The one I came across many years ago (I believe on a tip from Ruff) basically said when the economy goes to shit, people’s morals go up, they spend more time both working and at home, but they practice their procreation skills a lot less frequently. I don’t recall if the postulate was “too tired” or “not enough time between jobs” but then again, it was the early 1980s and I was looking at the data, not the theory…

  7. I stayed with my trade from yesterday., a good solid winner., and moved my stops up tight before the close. Even if I was wrong and got stopped-out I would still have a good winning trade. I did not see this kind of drop coming for this morning. I’ll take it., no complaints on my part.., I took my chips off the table and went home just a few minutes ago with the NASDAQ100 down just over 2.5%. A great two-day trade. – Watch the close and see what tomorrow brings us.

    • just need that puppy to drop another..oh roughly 9% before da coot bee in da money w/ QQQ 252 Puts-Dec16th exp..race ya to the bottom.

  9. “The West just keeps doing things to piss Russia off. This week’s Ure-a-peein stroke-o-genius? Kosovo leaders sign application request to join EU.”

    Something to contemplate, perhaps (or not?)

    Putin and Xi are tight.

    While war is raging in UKR and we’re depleting our tech, guess who is very quietly, and completely under the news radar, invading all of Ureup with their “belt in mouth” initiative…?

    Obviously, Russia wants the Donetsk Basin, and they want their more Slav (or more-Viking) neighbors to quit killing people who’re more Rus and Caucasian, but is it possible that the time chosen for Putin to take action was dictated as much by Xi, as it was the cowardly, senile pervert whom Xi helped us “elect?”

    • I still believe its a poison pawn trap..
      trying to keep all their lucrative business activities…lets face it an estimated 37 trillion money loss of business is a big deal..
      so we go all in..the other countries influenced by those that will loose are repeating their stock arms meant to protect their citizens..
      loss of energy..

  12. The market seems to be over-reacting to the retail numbers., they weren’t all “that” bad. Must be something else driving this broad-base sell-off. Did something blow-up ??
    – Looks like I should have stayed in even longer…,

  13. RR Numbers

    The one that is important for showing what the economy is doing for everyday people is the Intermodal Freight one … that is the shit everyone buys, most people don’t buy a carload of coal or limestone.

    The overall car load numbers can get skewed badly by the shipping of coal, the biggest # of carloads after intermodal, since the coal export market fluctuates like my old batting average did, WILD swings, and of course oil shipments which can also swing wildly. Car loads of auto shipments could be informative … but those numbers are buried deep in the weeds and you usually don’t see those reported.

    Anyway with Intermodal down over 5% YoY that shows an overall weakening economy, and not by just a little. (confirmed by the lack of ships waiting to unload at LA /Long Beach unlike last year, about 5 to 8 recently down from 70 to 95 a year ago – depending upon the week)

    Higher interest rates are just starting their “bite”. Over time that bite should compound upon itself and the slowdown should become noticable to the average person. (barring of course a ramp up in the War situation … which could throw all existing logic to about the economy out the window – from the 87th floor too boot!!

  14. See what happens when you start a ‘Pussy Ranch’? You might want to change the soil in that litter… er… ‘Grow’ box before you start a new crop of cat lettuce. I have a wild cat or two that invades the yard nightly here and leaves gift piles in the lawn. The little house dog here barks at ’em, but won’t go out. Neighbors all have dogs outside, which is why the cats probably prefer my yard. I don’t want to have to clean up after a yard dog just to repel the cats, though.

    • OBD . With the Twitter files resembling a digitized version of the same playbook. Perhaps it’s a great time to get the public distracted by by all that stuff that was taking place 60 years ago. What one immediately picks up on is similarities in the design pattern of operations, only optimized for the latest technooogy. Mr Ure, in a nod to your “everything is a business model” modality, so to we see that everything has a design pattern. Pathetic that the cans of Sunshine will be served before just us . Or is that just for us? LOL

  16. Meanwhile, back at the Volcano Ranch, I have had a massive sprouting success! I have a silver dollar sized ND magnet that I taped, South Pole facing up, to the bottom of a tallish quart jar. This is alleged to increase growth and yields by 40%. Nylon mosquito screen, properly washed, was rubber-banded over the mouth of the jar later. I used about a heaping tablespoon of Mung beans in the jar for my first experiment. Soak the beans in the jar, with screen in place over the mouth, for the first night. Every day thoroughly rinse the beans, drain thru the screen, and set them in a warm, darkish place away from light. Daily expansion was very evident. On day 5 the sprouts were pushing up the screen at the top and I harvested them. Much more voluminous when spread out of the jar. Made chop-sui with them the next day.
    Ridiculously easy survival greens.

  17. Re: “Post Fed” feat. MMT Wars

    Folks,

    Welcome to another episode in The Battle of Threadneedle Street. Today the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee met and voted 7-2 to raise the UK interest rate. Yet again PM Sunak’s recently paratroopered in ethnic Indian anti-MMT warrior queen, Swati Dhingra, voted against The Fed/Goldman Sachs leaning all-white committee with one other ally to hold interest rates status quo. Unlike last month’s report which offered a gory blow-by-blow overview of the carnage rendered by the dissenting members, today’s meeting report was sanitized suitably for an all ages review via a spreadsheet. Each member’s sum total votes on interest rates over their entire committee career are offered on a spreadsheet as raise, maintain, or reduce basis. This kind of muddles outside knowledge of the each member decision goings-on by individual meeting.

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/december-2022

  18. Well…its cold windy and a nice blizzard…what’s could be better than a peppermint pattie.
    hot cocoa and peppermint schnapps..
    oh hey.. I don’t have any peppermint schnapps…
    so….. I have to make some
    hmm..
    the recipe is pretty much the same for all liquors..
    1 cup sugar
    2 cups of corn syrup
    1/4 cup or two tbsp. peppermint flavoring..add or sub track by personal taste ( depending on what liquor depends on flavoring or spices)
    3 cups of vodka

    now Making peppermint oil.. put peppermint leaves in a pan ( I put the leaves and water in the blender pulse)..place a cup in the center.. you can either put water.. or vodka invert the lid put it on medium to low heat…place ice cubs in the lid..
    the second Is to blend leaves or crush them..place in jar fill with vodka seal let sit..
    blend hard peppermint candies take the cup of water pour in it one cup of crushed peppermint candies heat and stir while the candy dissolves..
    if you do this exclude the cup of sugar..

  19. I am amazed that the staff of Zeus (the cat) was able to build a heated greenhouse for his winter nap comfort. Such a talented staff !

Comments are closed.