Reliability: In Trading, Prepping, & MTBF

Several events have reminded me recently to “write up a useable guide to reliability.”  Because, with the world quickly going to hell in a Fed basket, we not only need to plan for contingencies, but contingencies on top of those!

Which is why – with the Fed announcement some six hours from now (as I write this) we will have a chance to try out our “combinatorial contingency skills” in real-life trading conditions.

We will avoid too much mathematical jargon, but a simple table and some first-hand examples will be useful to study, we’re thinking.

First, however, let’s see how the Happy Talk Choir performance is holding up as we roll through our Aggregate Index view of things.

That’s an index that combines many indices into one (assuming equal dollar weighting in each) in order to see the “real” truth about money as opposed to the widely repeated (and often wrong-headed) views.

Even before this, we will get into how SBF sent $1-million to a Texas democrat before his financial shenanigans came to light…

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57 thoughts on “Reliability: In Trading, Prepping, & MTBF”

  1. Reliability ?? you mean like BitcoinZ, no.

    Most reliable in the all the Worldz – Virtue, 4 It Is the “Foundation”

    Great post – timely. If you gotz the time, and the beer (green hieneys) then check out this rabbit whole..

    Oh my goodness Kemmosabe – its the empire dirtyworx krewe working long and hard at financial fraud – same ole same ole, cept this time they dirtied up crypto..yeah cheers!

    What is a midwest “thumper” to do in light of the fact their sun god (see dude) a “pacifist, failed chimera JC.

    – 1st class _ _ _ish ticket to the top of the economic dung heap, as he is empires original prescription of estrogen that has facilitated the enslavement of western Man”-JH

    uno, dos tres, Quatorze!

    Think aboutz it – “hanging there, limp on a stick, his pathetic face frozen in agony, his diaper soiled, blood dripping from his crown of thorns and the innumerable wounds inflicted on him by empire”-JH

    Pathetic and WEAK.

    A-dam (s) = beast (s) of burden in sumerian.

    *when its perverted & inverted = YCurve short end higher than long end always portends recession ..alwayZ.
    ** 10% yield = baseline return, if I cant achieve, default into dividend payers with provable reserves in the ground..oil/pm’s/semi pm’s

    Nein, nein, nein BTC 4G or dirty5G

    • Seems MSFT browsers (edge) report your link as a dangerous site.
      Works OK with FireFox.
      Which we infer means it’s worth a read
      And maybe saving before it disappears.

  2. I wasn’t clear a few days ago. At least 3 different prepper sites have recently complained that their long term food in number 10 cans (especially from one unnamed manufacturer ) was awful. Not good to eat. if you have never tried any of your ling term preps you need to do so now while you still have food options.

    • I strongly recommend storing what you eat daily. I do, and rotate as best I can. How long will we prep for? Ten years? That’s a long time – longer than many of us might otherwise survive. Obviously you can’t store everything long term unless you forego fresh anything, but stored supplies can be a major part of your diet.

    • …,why is manufacturer “unnamed” ? That’s down-right silly. How do I know if I have them on the shelf if I don’t know the brand name?? Pop open all my Number 10 cans to see if someone else is right?

  3. SBF is a rich man’s game. Don’t forget McCain was a part of the Keating Five and later ran for highest office. Small-fries sent him money to run!

    SBF needs to reimage as a hero ‘fighting corruption from the inside’. Kraken level threats to “release the ledger” similar to Maxine or the elusive “Dead man’s switch” like some of the others.

    After an event that causes a global EMP there isn’t enough basics like pens and paper to restart anything near the modern age. What should we write down with our few pens and a bathroom wall? Mathematical formulas for the alloys needed to restart the paper mill would be nice. Sketches of which plants are edible/poisonous would be practical.

    Humanity will be back to stone pins, wooden waterwheels and under 1,000,000,000 folks within a month.

    • even if he released the wouldn’t make any difference..look how fast they worked to say that all the photos of the satanic groups cannibalisms were false covered them over.. or the pedo’s thousands of photos and videos..
      It doesn’t make a difference.. they will say its not true.. those photos videos.. don’t mean a thing..they will stick him in prison just like they did with Julian assange ….or he will just quietly suicide himself.. this is a group with absolute power..they control everything..

      • With respect LOOB. In all your endeavours and trials that are hard to comprehend from a blessed person.
        Why would you relinquish to the ” it is no use to struggle”. You be the man, stand with me and all other Ure gang. Forget SOG- as I responded back when he abandoned this open air that he was addicted and would be back and we would recognize his “syntax”. He is back.

      • “Why would you relinquish to the ” it is no use to struggle”. You be the man, stand with me and all other Ure gang.’

        No one questions why those that pull the strings of govt. why.. they accept that they can.. the dual standards of laws.. its one thing if you or I did it.. quite another if they do it..
        It is a non event..

    • There aren’t enough draft animals to support food production for the current population, and the ones that are with us won’t be for long once the urban dwellers armed to the teeth fan out into the countryside looking for a quick protein score.
      Either we keep the grid up, or we take a fast dry slide back to 3000 BC.

      • “Either we keep the grid up, or we take a fast dry slide back to 3000 BC.”

        3000BC will take several generations. If’fn the grid shits itself, we will lose complex machines, instantly. We will have wheels, on steel axles and greased, for several hundred years. We will retain the mechanical advantage of the block and lever. However, aside from carts (and the loading of same), we may not have much use for any simple machines because once the barn lots have been killed off, we will spend 16-18 hours a day, every day, hunting and gathering, or we will die.

    • Does this mean that the pens, pencils, erasers, and paper I’ve stocked for myself and for bartering will be hot items after an EMP? And will the addition of my mathematical skills make me “Queen of the Cave”? Maybe I’ll finally hit pay dirt!

      BTW, a Boogie Board (reusable writing pad) is also a good thing to store.

      • yes they would be hot items.. that is why I teach the kids how to make pencils.. and paper..
        the simplest things you can have become valuable.. gold.. silver.. scuse me.. who wants it.. the silver sure.. but gold.. what good is gold.. even now you buy it to collect it.. but to sell it.. you have to go back to the person you bought it from to see if he wants it.. a few years ago now.. we seen how the price of toilet paper and hand sanitizer went for more than the price of precious metals..
        do you produce your own food.. energy or do you depend on someone else to produce it for you.. five hemps with the system we have now.. would ultimately take down the whole grid.. blow up transformers burn lines.. that we depend on another country to produce.. the cascade effect.. they use to call it the butterfly effect.. but I dubed it a cascade.. dominos would start to fall.. and as they speed up the quicker it all shuts down.. the hundred year storm in texas is one prime example.. a couple decades back it was a squirrel.. that did the nasty.. and took out energy for hundreds of thousands.. I could go into my normal rant on solar towers small wind.. but it doesn’t matter .. I actually had a talk with a science type guy about the new fusion reactor and unending energy.. it won’t happen.. not in our lifetime.. the reason cheap energy or energy from the sun doesn’t fit the business model.. the solar towers don’t fit the business model.. promoting solar energy to home owners doesn’t fit the business model.. green scaping doesn’t fit the business model.. because of that it won’t happen until the business model changes.. or necessity comes up..
        doesn’t matter if the cost of one large wind turbine.. not even counting the cost of infrastructure changes needed.. could put a solar power on every home in the state.. instead of three MW of energy you would have a potential of ten thousand MW of energy for the same cost.. green scaping would replenish lost crop lands and increase crop lands.. but a kid grabbing a carrot.. well mom wasn’t buying the carrot..

      • “Does this mean that the pens, pencils, erasers, and paper I’ve stocked for myself and for bartering will be hot items after an EMP?”


        Next to his horse, rifle, and rope or riata, the cowboy’s (or stock lineman’s, explorer’s, prospector’s, etc.) most valuable possession was his notepad and pencil. In any kind of “wilds,” humans who depend on memory to live, generally don’t. It is one of the details of “simple life” which is not glamorous enough to EVER receive a journalist’s or scriptwriter’s mention, but it was essential.

        It is also the reason there’s 3 spiral-bound 3×5 (pocket-sized) notebooks and a brace of “half-length” pencils in each of our GO-Bags.

  4. Regarding reliability: MTBF really matters, and I pay attention to that metric. MTTR(Mean Time To Repair) is just as important. A virtue of the old VW Bug is that the entire engine could be removed without damage in 1/2 hour using just a floor jack and common hand tools. No modern car can claim this. Modern cars are more reliable, yet when they break, they can be a real challenge to diagnose and fix economically. There’s no good reason to cramp engine and other compartments and clearances to the point that removing a challenging bolt might take an hour even if you use a special tool. Some spark plugs are so tight that you have to raise the engine to reach them. As reliability goes up, maintainability tends to go down as designers and engineers tolerate greater time to repair.

    Everything is a business model.

  5. George, Centurystink is now trying to get an extra dollar per paper bill as an incentive to “go paperless”. I have mixed feelings about this and wonder what you and others think. Is it worth a dollar a month for paper bills? It’s just one utility, but many of us have five or more required bills to pay each month.

    • Do you trust them?

      I’m paying $4 per month, per account, to have paper bank bills. I don’t like it, and would love to “go paperless,” but I trust my bank (or your bank, or anybody else’s bank) as far as I can throw the main B&M branch…

      • It took only one experience with a mortgage company assessing me a late charge for a mailed payment that I had mailed early enough for it to easily arrive on time to convince me that online payments are more trustworthy. My original mortgage was sold to a company in CA and I had lots of trouble with them. Either the USPS was VERY slow with deliveries or the company received my payment on time but didn’t post it until after the due date so they could charge a fine. I’m sure the latter was the case with this rip-off company, but any company could do the same and you’d have no recourse.

        When you pay online, however, you get a payment confirmation almost immediately via email, which serves as a receipt. If you don’t receive the confirmation within a day, you can first check out the activity on your account, and if that is unclear as to whether or not you paid the bill, then call them and fix the problem. I’ve paid bills online for about 22 years and have never had a problem. It probably helps that I use a credit union and do NOT set up automatic bill pay.

      • I also spring for the $2/mo paper statement fee from my bank. I used to have AT&T cell coverage. The mailed statements only gave one 20 days to pay, instead of the customary 30 days. They would post the statement date, and then HOLD THE MAILING for another 10 days (proven by the postmark) so that it arrived usually about a day before it was due, guaranteeing a ‘late fee’ even if you turned the payment around immediately in the mail back. They did this to me three months in a row, and after MUCH trouble finding a number for a live customer service agent I complained and told them I had the goods on them. After some research time, the agent admitted they show ‘some mail delivery problems’ at the billing office, but no admission nor refund of the late fees. The next month they were no longer my cell service provider.

    • Don’t go paperless on financial, utility, insurance or major purchase receipts. Comm receipts I currently go paperless on, but I may start printing a single monthly paper comm receipt at the end of the year for identity verification record purposes.
      Current procedure is to condense receipts after ten years. One receipt at the end of the year is enough to hang on to after a decade. A single smallish plastic storage container can hold 6 – 10 years of condensed receipts. I try to hang on to receipts for employment changes as well.
      Tax returns and associated receipts I am holding indefinitely, for the time being. My yearly income tax folders are usually pretty thin, so a storage container will hold a decades worth.
      Shred or burn all records with identity information when you dispose of them. The same goes for mailing and address labels of all types. I collect a bag of ’em, then burn or shred them. Never put anything in the trash with any identity info. I have gotten game-camera photos of vagrants looking through my trash for identity info in the past.

  6. Since the “Twitter Truth” started spewing forth, courtesy of my new hero Elon Musk, we’ve had a complete NYPD evidence warehouse burn down:
    AND all the sudden, the FBI mysteriously finds they actually DO have Seth Rich’s personal AND work computers:
    “The FBI not only has possession of a laptop computer owned by Democratic National Committee (DNC) staffer Seth Rich—who was murdered in 2016 by unknown assailants—but a report detailing forensic imaging of what’s being described as Rich’s work computer, the bureau revealed in a new filing.”
    Is it just me, or could this be “getting out ahead of the story”? A co-inky-dink? Methinks NO!

    • I believe we will see much damage control over the next few months, and most of it will take the form of “getting out ahead of the story…”

      Rich doesn’t matter, other than his data could probably eliminate the propaganda spin that “Russians hacked the DNC.” The CBC is safe from investigation…

  7. Yesterdays’ rally-out-of-nowhere ??
    In the minute or two before the inflation data was published, thousands of 10-year futures were traded in a window which generally has very little activity. It was so unusual and massive that the White House immediately denied any intel was leaked. Which of course means, that since the denial came so fast that it seems obvious the report ‘was’ leaked…,

  8. One more thing…..
    Does anyone here remember the movie “Terminator”? In case you missed it, the movie is set in a post apocalyptic environment where our war fight machine has been handed over to AI and determines that Humans are the enemy and must be killed.

    Jump to reality and here’s a recent meeting at the Pentagon where they announce something very similar, including the use of “commercial software” that could be tainted by the Chinese:

  9. Watched the rammed earth videos with a carpenter friend; now he wants to build a garage with attached apartment using this technique. Has a lot next to his house.
    Now we will talk with our retired building inspector friend to see what’s what. I’d like a garage shed out back too.
    And liked the compressed earth bricks, great!

    • rammed earth has been around for thousands of years..
      geopolymer stones.. the building of the pyramids..

      during ww2 there was a shortage of wood.. colleges were teaching this process.. the reason was they wanted to give returning soldiers a way to own their own home.. what happened is lumber mills picked up speed so lumber came out cheap..
      back decades ago I had been studying this process.. and the history of it.. buildings thousands of years old.. still standing tall.. while investigating a local school that taught it.. I discovered that close to one of my paper route customers places was a building .. so I stopped and asked if I could look at it.. it was not covered with another sheeting it was really impressive.. the thing is still up today..
      My wifes uncles farm.. they built a barn out of straw.. it is not only warm.. but very nice..
      bricks are made and baked.. rammed earth is not only beautiful but durable and cheap..
      what is a load of clay.. around the wastelands it is two hundred dollars a load delivered.. free if you pick it up…. a load of sand and pea fourteen dollars a ton.. now if you made the mix.. and packed it in sand bags.. then they are what a couple hundred dollars for a pallet full.. barbed wire.. fifty.. give or take..
      for under two thousand dollars you can build a rammed earth bag home.. for under a thousand you can build a rammed earth home..
      if you buy the block press..
      then three thousand.. the block press is cheap enough.. the shipping is horrible to the USA..
      I take that back.. that is what I paid for it and the leggo inserts..
      mix the material make the blocks let them cure.. an aquaintance of mine.. a professor from Kansas had summer classes teaching this principle and they made several buildings.. my thought was to get the ICF forms for concrete then put an outside form on the outside of the ICF styro forms.. ram the earth .. tie in the fiberglass rebar.. put in your electrical conduit etc.. you could lay out the whole house first.. then shuttle the rammed earth form around it.. do it in sections.. each one is three foot tall.. the earth home is built.. you would need a tamper.. or if your really strong and like to lift weights you could use a hand tamper..
      I would love to have a couple of acres.. to build one.. then used earth berming.. you not only have an earth sheltered home.. but economically built.. major cost is the land and the man made materials.. depending on how thick you want the walls.. a foot to two feet thick is normal.. ICF forms use half foot thick.. the building I seen was a little over a foot thick..
      for straw bails or grass bails.. ( grass has to be dry)
      then post and beam.. place the bails between the posts..
      I was in on a straw building several years ago at the college.. the whole building with the class went up in a day..
      I like the rammed earth.. want to do it.. they are definitely beautiful.. durable and cheap to construct..

  10. I was wondering if he had been extradited…,
    – Sam Bankman-Fried tried to use his vegan diet to get released from jail after he was arrested in the Bahamas: He will remain held in a notorious Bahamas prison without bail.
    – That’s gotta be a serious wake-up call.

  11. I always found it interesting, especially now., that a crypto exchange could stop all withdraws and cease transactions on any and all digital currency – at their discretion. You can’t get your money out and you can’t trade it. You are horribly stuck, sitting there helplessly watching your funds/investment evaporate before your eyes. That one key piece of info should stop any sane person from jumping onto the crypto-wagon. .., but it doesn’t.

      • Re: Flight into Box Canyon feat. By the way


        Are the msm hyenas beginning to howl about the July and October “Reuters” reports of a crypto exchange, Russia, and Iran menage-a-trois? Will the ptb let loose the DoJ? Are the co-founders of the exchange CCP members?

        We live in interesting times.

  12. “As an example, White House silent on whether it will return $5.2M in donations from SBF”

    LOL LOL LOL ONE WORD will answer that one… NO…. LOL LOL then they would have to return the money donated from the CCP and all those others out there.. LOL LOL LOL.. hundreds of millions of dollars…
    I can see it now.. ole Joe and Kammy purebred.. standing at the corner of walmart asking for a handout.. LOL LOL..
    years ago when I was in dc there at the corner of wisconsin and K street.. at the riggs national bank.. there was a guy pitiful looking.. a few doors down was a bar sandwhich shop that made the best steak sandwhiches you ever ate.. I would go and buy him a coffee and sandwhich.. and drop some money in his can.. he had a hunk of plywood with a blanket on it.. pitiful looking gent.. I sold t shirts and jewelry on my days off from a fenders stand.. anyway.. I did that for a long time.. then one day on the front page of the news.. was this guys photo.. you may have seen this guy around.. he passed away.. but.. he wasn’t the cripple on the platform.. he did that for more money it was a hobby.. his real job was he was a multi millionaire ceo of some big company on K street LOL LOL so jo or kammy could do that.. they already look pitiful .. just gotta lay on the plywood and shake the can.. LOL

  13. The SEC charges 8 social media influencers in a $100 million stock manipulation scheme promoted on Twitter.
    The defendants would purchase stocks and tell followers to do the same, but then would dump shares without disclosing it on social media.

  14. Nearly half of US young adults are living at their parents home — a high not seen since the Great Depression.
    They are helping fuel the spending boom, Morgan Stanley analysts said.
    Living at home is freeing up their budget and leaving them with more disposable income for spending.
    Thus the higher than expected Consumer Spending numbers.

    • There spending room living at home will be greatly deminished when they start having to pay for the student loans. One of these days the mortorium will stop and payments will begin.

  15. SBF also gave over $20mln to “Republican” candidates.

    I guarantee you’ll see that factoid show up. What we won’t see in the MSM is the fact it was used to “Primary” Constitutional conservatives and elect RINOs.

    Rumor has it that Caroline Ellison is rolling on SBF, and is (or is about to be) in protective custody. I hope they put her in Ghislaine’s cellblock, and not Epstein’s…

  16. F your market and trading . The initial move after a fed meeting is always wrong . You know jack . Let us see the lines and closes . That’s sustainable. Don’t fight the tape

  17. Re: “Happy Talk Choir Performance”.


    One imagines the dignitaries of almost four dozen African nations gathered in Washington yesterday for day 1 of the US-Africa Summit would understand their host nation El Supremo’s absence. Indeed the First and Second Couple were attending a WH South Lawn shindig celebrating the President signing into law the Respect of Marriage Act which renders obsolete its more traditional predecessor Defense of Marriage Act. Live entertainment included fresh from their two night stand at the Lincoln Theatre, The Gay Men’s Choir of Washington, DC, who brought their unique blend of naughty and nice holiday cheer to the festivities. An additional headliner included the UK recording artist identifying as non-binary, Sam Smith and employer of the “they/them” pronoun. It’s a drag that American entertainer RuPaul was otherwise engaged?

    • Folks,

      Thanks for your patience. The White House has posted this afternoon’s address by President Biden which began 17 minutes late to the US-Africa Summit gathering. Top of page features an image of warm greetings between the Presidents of the USA and South Africa. Hopefully the latter will have opportunity to shop for a replacement couch for the one bearing foreign currency allegedly from cattle sales to Sudan that was stolen from his farm, and recovered somewhat worse for wear in neighboring Namibia.

      Transcript features of today:

      Mr. Biden promotes the Millennium Challenge Corporation which is a republican-created US government foreign aid agency whose slogan includes “reducing poverty through growth”. Overall the Summit seems to be a slam-dunk of the ship having set sail with the usual big names as course is dialed in for the “Digital Transformation with Africa”. Cheques on your behalf will be in the mail. Merry Christmas.

      • stuffing sofas with cash is very fine and worthy should try it sometime..what do think Ukey generals are doing with all the cash they are receiving from the Ruskies for selling em Nato weapons system…actually they been using olive drab duffle bags, but I digress.
        See Patriot Anti Missile system will be in Russian hands before Ukey’s fire one missile, not that they are very accurate..just ask the bloodsuckers in ME.

  18. …, ta da !! Nailed that trade right ! Market now down 270 points .., and I win $50 from a fellow miscreant. He predicted a 75 basis point hike., so I bet him it would be just 50, with a mention of future hikes for next year.
    – It’s been a good morning !!

  19. “The Beetles were different: Lower cost, they were easy to work on”

    Until the early 1060s, the VW “Beetle” was available in kit form. In 1959 a “turnkey” VW was $1695, but a “VW in a crate,” complete, but unassembled was $1195. Volkswagen was not alone. Americans could buy a Triumph TR-2, or later, an Austin Healey (original “Bugeye”) Sprite in a crate, both also around $1200 delivered. I’d not be surprised if there were others, as well, but with these three, I am personally familiar. All three were dead simple to work on, but the VW lent itself to other backyard projects because there were, simply, so many of them. In a time period when Austin Morris made a couple thousand Sprites, VWAG made a million Beetles…

      • Way begone your comprehension. Cheeze?/Milk/ Butter/Toadstool. Born in the USA? Those whom ignore history are going to experience it again.

    • A friend of mine found an Austin Healey still in it’s crate in a barn in northern California. He refurbished, rebuilt and assembled it. Still drives it now. Even though he is six-three and has a hell of time getting in and out.
      – He preserved the crate too.

    • Working on a friends ‘bug’ in his garage in the late 60s, we got the strong kid from school on his back on a creeper with the repaired engine on his chest. He would slide under the bug and bench press the engine into place while the rest of us quick put nuts on the mounting bolts. I remember we could set the points with a lightbulb and aligator clips on the contacts. I had VWs in Wisconsin winters because you didn’t need antifreeze. Thin oil and a plug in heater so it would turn over at -40f. But you needed a frost scraper for the INSIDE of the windshield. It never got warm inside in the winter.

      • friggin awesome..scraper for inside of window – no wonderz Ure living in tropical paradise nowadayz. Now about those photos of Army “men” in dog masks and S&M gear posing in Hawaii on base ??? methinkz they should be renaming the Hale Koa Hotel – The Hale Homo Hotel.
        Stayed there over a Thanksgiving holiday in mid 80’s- the Momz visiting from mainland, beachfront -ocean view on enlisted pay grade – a very sweet deal. Almost as much fun as going to Army v Navy game – Phila in 80’s and sitting family friends super box, on leave in civies – everytime I stumbled to bathrooms, I would be fucking with the cake-eaters/scrambled egg wearing/pampered princes of the pentagon, who were all on 400 level/superbox level at old Vet stadium = too much fun.
        1st family car I can remember..burlap on back window “dash” area..rough and tough peopleswagon -vunderbar.

        ? U got those big Centipedes to deal with in Ure neck of paradise? one of few things that still scare the crap out of me..

      • But the darn lightweight Beetle, settin’ on those 5.60×15 tyres, was nearly impossible to stick in the snow, so we scraped our windshield until the dash looked like a snowscape (nobody scrapes the ice off their windshield, just once) and kept on, keepin’ on…

        Those are some long-forgot memories… Thanks (I think.)

  20. So much bullsheet and backslapping here today . What happened to your Farken USD . Worthless . The ultimate gold . Fools

  21. Everything could go to hell tonite !!!! Yayyyy . Where’s the. Great d lynn and 73 ??? What’s going on ?

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