Will February Lows Hold?

90-minutes before the open, the Futures were holding flat to tiny declines. Dow’s beinig arb’ed up.  Normally, this would lead to the idea that the declines are done for now.  But that’s what we deal with in our charts while nervously looking at what the collapse of Globalism would mean.

After the charts, some notes from around the ranch.  Plus, a personal observation about the damage being done by “social just-us warriors.

Coffee at the ready?

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34 thoughts on “Will February Lows Hold?”

  1. George, you say today that the dollar will likely drop in value (interest rates and all)
    but you haven’t (at least recently) commented on whether gold/silver will be a viable alternative. Real estate (land) might be good but it doesn’t fulfill the fractional disposable benefits of precious metals. What are your current thoughts?

    • Buy junk silver coins 1964 & earlier with 90% silver content. Use ebay auctions. I feel % wise silver will go up more than gold. By buying junk silver you eliminate the collector coin premium.

      • Silver is an easy way to accumulate a precious metal but the problem I have with silver is, it is so heavy while gold is much lighter per $ value. Crypto’s weigh even less….lol

      • I never heard of anyone concerned about weight over total return, unless you are selling a pig at market. Crypto needs electricity & can burn you.

        Remember, there is room for the bulls, and room for the bears, but there is no room for the piggies.

    • Be very careful. Some of the long range forecasts have silver going to below $12 within four years.

      Also, don’t forget you get charged premiums when you buy and when you sell. That puts you 2%+ behind the eight ball from the git go.

    • Forget the silver and gold and Buy a freeze dryer! Then pick up whatever food is on sale and freeze dry it package it in one ounce packages. If there’s an economic apocalypse like the one that hit Germany in what 1918. (http://www.history.ucsb.edu/faculty/marcuse/classes/33d/projects/1920s/Econ20s.htm)
      See anything interesting about the conditions that caused that depression! It kind of looks exactly what Argentina and the USA is doing today. Anyway back then food was worth more than gold and silver. You would have the goods
      I can say what the source was that was way to many books ago. But during the depression in the USA in 1800’s a cup of water was worth more than an ounce of gold coffee is a good marketer to. A simple food stock has a better return than any bond. And if it doesn’t then you have lunch and save the 8 percent you would have had to pay out.
      Kind of like housing. My sister telling me about the house they paid less than fifty thousand for is now worth almost a half million my god.. and that they looked at a house here that was almost identical that was almost one.. you would be so much better off.

      • What would make the conditions for an environmental or economic collapse worse.. is if there was a natural disaster attached to it. In every severe economic catastrophe there’s been a severe drought or poor harvest associated with it.

      • Read too many times that ‘experts believe that the next great wars will be over water.’ Problem as I see it is that TPTB tend to ignore the plight of the commons and head straight for the geopolitical – power struggles.

  2. Based on your first chart and my sheets of paper i aligned on the screen, the descending triangle looks to near its break out point about the 20th of May.

  3. Hi, George,

    Thanks, again, for more thought-provoking posts and interesting ideas to consider. It seems that you have been wrestling this year with the merits of moving to a city with doctors and stores in short distances. As you are one who always wants to be prepared for most anything, your debate as to leave where you currently are for a domicile that would be less care intensive weighs heavily on your mind. I would say that the projects in and around your home keep your mind occupied and your body physically fit. You also enjoy peace and quiet, which may not be found in a city environment. Your current place is your sanctuary. I would suggest that you continue your decision to hire younger folks to do the more physically demanding yard jobs for you. I hope that I have not crossed a line in giving my opinion here.

    • Oh, not at all. We’re pretty thick skinned about commends…and thick headed, too, lol

      And we still best of class ideas whenever we can…

    • Don’t worry Nancy. One of these years, G&E will rent an AirB&B for a month in an urban setting. The first time George hears a car stereo blasting a window-rattling bass line from a mile or more away, he’ll realize how important “the outback” is to his sanity…

      • We did that 3 years back. Hate the noise. Love a 5-min drive to get fresh, shelled Dungeness crab meat….everything is a trade off

      • I know you did. The urban noise pollution has gotten much worse. The nearest stoplight is 2200 yds from me and through a dense wooded area. I have literally had my windows shook & rattled by cars stopped at that intersection…

        And then, there are the rich-kid diesel toys: Cummins, Duramax, Powerstroke, doesn’t seem to matter much, except Daddy doesn’t buy a Ford XL, he buys a Platinum, and the kiddies don’t like small pickups (F350/3500HD preferred.)

        Remove muffler (legal, because the way the federal rules are written, a turbocharger can be categorized as a “noise filtration device”), install 5″ cat-back exhaust, install tuning box, crank the tune to “stupid rich” and drive with foot firmly planted in firewall. The things make more noise and soot than a locomotive.

        After Daddy springs for 80 large for the truck, getting him to spend another $6000 for a stereo that’s loud enough to hear over the engine racket must also be easy enough. I don’t know if this is a Midwestern/Southern thing, because I avoid the left coast like the plague, but I’ve seen these ridiculous rides from the northern U.P to El Paso and Patterson, NJ to Glendale, AZ, and I am not impressed. I am also not deaf, which is a claim I’m pretty sure the owners of these vehicles cannot make…

    • As someone with a spread similar, yet different from George’s, it’s quite wonderful to have a life without a schedule and no need to leave the land except for once or twice a month. George’s greatest asset is Elaine, and living away from chaos is wonderful as a couple.

      The main reasons to be in a metro area are school, work, business, or finding a mate. The only reason I’d consider moving is the finding a mate thing, and then I’d move back. Family members can visit, and even if you move to their city, they might move away. Chasing family is a lost cause. Just use phone, net, and Skype to stay in touch, along with visits both ways.

      Nearby medical is only pivotal if you have a known medical condition that you want attended to. We all die, and dying alone or with your loved one is much cheaper for the family than doing the medical thing. I’ve not yet seen any benefit in having a hospital next door.

      Two legged predators are probably the greatest risk in either environment.

      • What I find interesting is that most of us see ourselves perched on the crest of 1928/29.
        Historically during times of climactic and economic perils there has always been a migration to the metropolitan areas of the time.
        Living in the utopian outback garden of eden, with the only real antics being those of Zeus the cat. Why in the world would you even remotely consider moving to a metropolitan area? Especially when your living in the garden now.

  4. George,

    This very morning the wife of a good friend had posted something on Farcebook that I felt I needed to respond to. I love the woman, but she’s a dyed-in-the-wool lefty and big time SJW. Her post was about ‘cishet’ white men using ‘unapproved language’ such as saying ‘you guys’ and on and on.

    My response was thus:

    Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. Their very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be ‘cured’ against one’s will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.
    —C. S. Lewis, God in the Dock

    It was unappreciated.


    • I had never read that one.. it is very well written..
      thanks for sharing it with us..

      I am afraid there will always be the Caligula’s and the Nero’s, the Hitlers and the Stalin’s.. my curiosity is whether or not there is still anyone left with any morality in their souls in DC anymore.
      the other question I have is most of us have read about the watchers.. the angels that weed out the evil. similar to Saddam and Gomorrah now if they are still here watching. I wonder just how far they will let it go on before they kick some royal butt..

    • Had ta look that one up…

      From Urban Dictionary:

      “An abbreviation of cisgendered (opposite of “transgender”) heterosexual: a person that identifies as the sex they were born as and are attracted to the opposite. Mostly used in social justice circles as an ad hominem attack to people who have to audacity to be born identifying with their birth gender and have an opinion”

  5. It was generous of you to share George II’s situation. He sounds like a fine man who is willing to act on his principles. Something that has disappeared in our society. I wish him the best, but he sounds like a strong, level headed man who will always succeed no matter the situation.

    • I commend G II for his steadfastness. I’ve experienced the reverse discrimination thing re- med school decades ago, so it’s not new. It’s just grown completely out of control. Note that Asians as well as Whites are discriminated against as potential students, since they tend to outdo their competition academically. I’m on board with Ure’s: Just seek the best, brightest, most competent, most decent, and most worthy people. Let all compete on a fair playing field and let those who don’t win to play again when they have more to offer. I’ve heard too much of the SJW ranting and ignore them when I’m on campus. I must admit though, that I’d never heard the term “cishet”! LOL.

  6. George,

    A couple of book recommendations:

    “Social Justice Warriors Always Lie” and Social Justice Warriors Always Double Down” both by Vox Day. Kindle or dead tree are available.

    These are not just descriptive, they are instructional on avoidance and defensive techniques. Sometimes retreat is not an option.

    I recommend both as vital self-defense tools in the current time.

    • I just leave the city and won’t play such childish games. Like I said, they can have Oregon.

      • I might point out – though I am of a different political mindset from you – that ‘Oregon’ -detested in your mind – has as its border, the only large honest-to-god river on the west coast of the North American continent.

        Geography is the ruler of ‘possible history’.

  7. With respect to investing in gold and silver at this point, you may want to review the ‘gold:silver ratio’, and what PMs do in a depression. The pm bug’s best case scenario is hyperinflation.

    For GII, if he considered some sort of crowdfunding site for his book, I’d contribute immediately. I just reread One Second After (the tears! I was unmanned over the fate of his daughter), and know I need a medical reference for the real world.
    Also IRL, GII and I are practically neighbors. Investing in that local specialist is important for a communities sustainability and resilience.
    For your veggie patch, consider ‘tree collards’, a perennial, nutritious, new cultivar. For preppers, get lots of high quality salt, and read up on natural lactofermentation. This is the traditional way to preserve food without special canning equipment. Think sauerkraut or kim chee.

  8. FB up $11 in after hours after earnings post. GOOGL was up $35 after hours the other day after earnings post & then crashed. Will FB follow GOOGL because of a concern about future earnings.

    • Cramer likes FB. “CASH RULE EVERYTHING” & FB has a lot of it plus very little China exposure.

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