Housing To the Moon

Just how high will housing go in the go-go markets of Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco?

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain in February, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.5%, up from 6.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.8% year-over-year gain, up from 6.4% in the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco continue to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 11.6% increase and San Francisco with a 10.1% increase. Thirteen of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending February 2018 versus the year ending January 2018.

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Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4% in February. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported increases of 0.7%. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase in February. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.8% month-over-month increases. All 20 cities reported increases in February before and after seasonal adjustment.

Students of charting theory, note that these are current dollar prices.  When the first peak was hit (late 2006) the dollar had not been “watered down” as much as current levels.  So Elliott counts likely still work.

Land of Double Standards

It is like Alice in Wonderland.  How deep is the rabbit hole?  We got a real kick out of “Criminal Referral Against McCabe, CNN Lives Up to ‘Fake News’ Moniker, Your Calls on Corrupt Liberals..” which popped up on the John Muir show.

UrbanSurvival readers, at least to a certain extent, would agree that this is indeed a land of double-standards anymore.  What ever happened to the conservative democrats?  The ones who were reasonable and didn’t have pay-for-play schemes and all that?

Democrats of this stripe weren’t the “bad guys” – they were just…people.

Radicals and dividers to the forefront now, the liberal media are trying to circle their wagons. Stories keep popping up about the firewalling of the FBI from “influence” outside the Bureau.

Yet the stories keep coming.  Like this morning’s “Obama Justice Dept.’s attempts to influence investigations exposed in McCabe probe” in the Washington Times.

But the problem of “double standards” is much broader than the republican vs. democrat charade in Swampland.

It’s symptomatic of a larger disease…an America that has lost her way.  And, of yes, lost core values, as well.

Need an example?  Check:

Free Speech Notes

One of our readers drew our attention to what’s going on out in Oregon. “Oregon State Bar’s statement on ‘white nationalism’ draws criticism” reports OregonLive.

A relevant quote, if I may?

“A “Statement on White Nationalism and Normalization of Violence” denounces hate mongering, referencing the white nationalist march last August in Charlottesville, Virginia, and the May stabbing attacks on the Portland MAX train. The bar’s statement calls out a “current climate of violence, extremism and exclusion” that threatens the rule of law and judicial system that serves everyone.”

The OregonLive report does mention that a half-dozen lawyers were granted partial dues refunds.  They reasoned (we think correctly)  that a Bar has no place in politics.

The O-Bar statement, near as we can figure, will do absolutely nothing to actually change anyone’s behavior.  The number of potential perpetrators of violence who read the Oregon Bar’s notes is, by our mathematical modeling, near zero.

Why did they write it, then?

MeeToo‘ism, perhaps?  Weak-minded belief in the latest leftist mental squalor about white shame?  Who knows?

We do notice, however, that this may be yet-another manifestation of how social media has generated a pernicious national mental disease:  Monetizing free speech.  Which is really monetizing hate.

To see how this works, go watch the video here.  Just the other day, a Texas constitutional law professor ventured into theradical stronghold at CUNY trying to discuss free speech.  He was victimized by “organized heckling.”

Watch the video.  See how the leftarchists are trying to take down the country?  A very cool professor with the patience of Job.

In a civil Nation, people who disagree have the right to leave. Not to go ballistic. Not to shout-down.  Disrupt.  Heckle. Mayhem.

Just leave.

These later-day Bolsheviks are looking for confrontation, seeking an  excuse, to replace civil discourse with violence-provoking hate speech.  Head-to-head conflict, it’s the stuff of the Alinskyites..  It’s just like Hitler’s constant search for a martyr to his cause.

The thinking is like “Please confront…please justify us so the revolution can grow...”

Back to point: We would have expected better from the Oregon Bar, but we also understand that Oregon is the original liberal Sanctuary State.  Left coast is no joke, you see?

Speaking of free speech – and the New Racism…white-hating and guilt-selling… try this one on for size.  In The Federalist“California Continues To Pioneer The War On Gender While Squashing Free Speech.”  As I said.

Reason be damned.  We’re a nation of sick MeeToo’ers.

Unable to achieve and compete individually, the social media misfits have packed up like wild dogs and now turn on whoever’s view differs from their pack.

I’m one of those “color blind” folks.  Also “sex blind” and “gender blind.”


Easy to see.  But it’s harder to fix.  The way we see it? Politicizing a Bar in an already left-leaning wannabe break away state is a losing proposition.

Or, failing that, can we give away Oregon as reparations?

Terror in Toronto

10-people dead and more injured from a van driver hitting people, apparently on purpose.

Two bets here:  Psych drugs?  And social media radicalization?

A Social Note to Melania

Congratulations on planning the upcoming State Dinner.

Could Elaine and I please get tickets?

Hell, I’d rent a penguin suite and Elaine owns a gen-u-ine Versace.  Tells me it looks better on her than me.

Old News from Peoplenomics

Bitcoin rose over $9,300 this morning.  Had you subscribed to our Peoplenomics service, you would have see the call that BTC’s were breaking higher Saturday…

We hope our subscribers who play the digi game enjoy an entry around $8,700.

If you’re not a subscriber.  Do the subscription math:  BTC $8,700 entry and 4-days later $9,300.  For a $40 subscription?  Are you kidding? Oh, well.

Market’s Scream Skyward

Dow futures were up 150 with an hour before the open.  I clicked out of my short position Monday and made a couple of ham sandwiches worth.

I’m expecting one more good run up into early May before financial sobriety sets in.

Trade Hopes, Maybe?

Good piece in the LA Times worth a read on how Trump et al are working toward a better NAFTA deal.  Problem then will be getting it past the elitist congressoids.



25 thoughts on “Housing To the Moon”

  1. What effect is the 10 year rate busting thru 3% going to have. A few weeks back it was a big deal.

  2. “Just how high will housing go”

    God I know right.. I am shocked..I just had this discussion with my son in laws and my daughters the other day while having a cup of coffee discussing my summer plans for them.. housing here for an example my sister was telling me that her house in Seattle is just close to a half million.. around here it is a quarter million.. thirty years ago the house was less than fifty thousand..
    rent.. a thousand dollars a month plus utilities.. the daughter was showing me one her friend has up for rent.. 2500.00 a month for a four bedroom plus utilities..
    my question to her was.. where do these people work. I know her husband doesn’t pay his employees enough to pay that rent..roughly take home would have to be twenty five dollars an hour clear just for the rent. in a different discussion with her husband earlier he was upset that McDonald employees wanted higher wages..
    if the average home is a quarter million and the average rent is a thousand.. they have to be making what they are asking clear.. not to mention everything else..

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    • I tried to be a more active investor, but I am in and out all day & miss market turns. My conclusion is that I am not willing to put in the time because I would have to sacrifice other activities. It is a lot of work to be an active trader & mentally exhausting.

  3. Las Vegas was one of the giant bubble markets back in 2005-2008. Oh well, I guess the experience did not sink-in the first time. Let’s see if Trump is as liberal with the bale out money as GWB.

  4. Since I live in an area affected by the high housing prices, I thought I’d put my two cents worth in. (Put your insanity goggles on – this is connected to ‘the homeless problem’.)

    By dint of my health I barely managed to get into a senior living facility, but had I not been able – and it was looking dicey there for a while – I would have been in deep doo-doo. (My sister kept yelling at me that I couldn’t be homeless. Wow like I hadn’t noticed . . .)

    Literally, fifty years ago one could get a decent house for thirteen grand in an established neighborhood. (What my parents sold their house for at the time.)

    Today this kind of house is selling ‘north of’ two hundred and sixty grand – a twenty times increase at least, probably much more. (It’s mind boggling – not in a good way.)

    Ordinary people cannot hope to earn enough to ever afford to buy a house. And renting is not any better – thousand plus a month just for a studio in a concrete pile . . . (Older people on pensions, I guess must just die.)

    Our mayor gets flack because he allows homeless people to ‘camp’ – Yes, all the ‘dregs of society have shown up – but no help given by other responsible ‘leaders’, one of which just sold a facility that could have helped for five cents on the dollar. (So who is really responsible?)

    No end in sight . . . yet . . . but I bet that it won’t be pretty! (Can remove goggles now, but brace for impact!)

  5. “I’m one of those “color blind” folks. Also “sex blind” and “gender blind.”” REALLY? ;-)

    I realize that everything is a business model but sometimes it’s advantageous not to know too much, especially with stock trading. JMO

  6. I think white people hating started when Obama referred to whites as WHITE FOLKS. Whites never questioned this which showed a sign of weakness. So now the press & all are running over all the while folks.

    White males are taking the brunt of this hatred. White females seem to get a hate pass.

    • You gotta be a man, & men & women are different no matter what Me Too or Ellen says. But most are gentleman, but the Fake News concentrates on the wasted 10%. My suggestion is that Me Tooers & Ellen watch the movie Saturday Night Fever with John Travolta. The movie shows both strong & weak men & strong & weak women in their young horny years. This is reality.

  7. When I was in first grade a bunch of us boys got sticks and attacked a group of girls. They proceeded to take our sticks away & kick our butts. They were never bothered again.

  8. OT, but dammit George, you haven’t given me a place to post this:

    40-something gal at the convenience store I most often frequent is up for a promotion. She’s the Assistant — cannot move up until she gets a diploma/GED, so she’s taking a high-school equivalency class, to subsequently take a GED exam.

    She marveled to me a couple days ago that the common core GED does not require science, history, social studies or civics, grammar or punctuation, or mathematics above the level of arithmetic.

    WTF? I mean, really, WTF…?

    • Ray, it astounds me to see store clerks have to use a calculator to figure out how much change to give back when a patron gives a $10 bill to pay a $5 tab.

      I wonder what kind of parenting that person you noted, had? Single parent?

      • Don’t be silly — the change to be given is displayed by the cash register, and (in most places) coin automagically dispensed. On the rare occasion I hit a fast food joint, I amuse myself by paying exact coinage to (theoretically) receive a $5 or $10 bill in return. The majority of payment clerks can’t handle the entry, and return ones, plus $1 in change.

        The lady is typical of “career” store employees. Her youngest kid is 23.

        My commentary wasn’t about her, but about the appalling lack of requirements now necessary to acquire a GED…

      • Not all stores Ive patronized have POS systems that provide the change amount. Smaller stores, in particluar, mom and pop second hand stores, rarely have high level POS cash registers.

      • When faced with two possibilities the simpler explanation is usually the correct one. So some guy showed up just like he said or Jones uncovered another conspiracy sitting right in front of everyone.

        Does Alex Jones have any credibility?

        In the past when the Deep State infiltrated protest groups it’s always been the progressive and anti-war groups. The Occupy types.

        Why, because law enforcement and intel have always leaned republican, For example, Mueller, Comey and Rosenstein are all republicans.

        I’m starting to think that you folks, the deniers, enablers and apologists, are all nuts.

  9. Stayed at an Air B&B in Seattle two Summers ago. Very cheap but very nice half basement 2 BR apt. with view of the Sound and nice ’50s or ’60s neighborhood. Owner upstairs is a retired lawyer. Asked her why the streets were so full of parked cars, at all hours. Basically one lane roads.

    Turns out the permanent renters there are often 6 people living as three couples in a three bedroom house, just to get their commute below an hour, and besides, that’s the most they can afford. Original owners are retiring and/or dying. So most houses now have 6 cars. Many use the garages for storage. Do the math.

    Met a school teacher, born and raised in Seattle, whose 900 sqft shack in East Seattle, built in the ’20s, was having its lease end. The new rental exceeded her income. Three 700 sqft houses on their block had sold for $750,000 that month. Also shacks. They could not survive on her boyfriend’s income alone, so were moving out of state to live with his parents. Perhaps 30 years old.

    Both Google and Amazon had moved their main offices there with over 30,000 new downtown employees with starting pay around $200,000. Talk about traffic and parking nightmares. The $200K people lived near poverty level or over an hour’s commute away. Maybe 2 hours.

    When interest rates renormalize, the blood in the water there will be epic.

  10. OT again but worth mentioning as another ill side effect of these social media sites that allow for sick minds to meet up and discuss and collude on how the world has mistreated them.

    Apparently the recent mass killer in Canada patronized a chat room for men who felt woman didn’t appreciate them. This group calls good looking men, Chads and good looking woman, Stacy’s…

    This group of males idolizes other mass killers who felt abused by woman who didnt find them apoealing…they refer to themselves as incels, men who are involuntarily celibate.

    I never knew such groups existed, but it does give insight into the mindsets of men I think can become serial killers..

    The common denominator behind many of these mass killings is social media sites that give these sick mindsets a place to congregate and plan their revenge with other like minds…

    Seems good looking people are the problem for these men who have acquired a sense of entitlement their looks and personality don’t equate to.

    All this is leading to eventual tough regulations on internet based free speech …the very free speech and exchange of ideas and perceptions we enjoy on this blog? At some point will all speech have to meet some central review boards approval? Its already started. Its getting creepy out there.


  11. Regarding the “knife attacks” in Oregon. There was one incident, not plural. A rude man was yelling at another passenger who happened to be an immigrant. People yell at each other all the time on our busses/trains, but I digress. A couple of do-gooders tried to stop it, but they got a bit too handsy with the perp and got stabbed to death.

    While tragic, and perhaps racist, this does not amount to any kind of trend. The problem is Oregon, make that Portland, is deeply guilty over being a very white state with a Klan background, so “one” of anything racist or nationalist is a trend.

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