And whether we like it, or not, the high-risk window for a regional war in Europe is here. Reprising, along the way, an event set-up very reminiscent of The Guns of August. Hand me an Archduke?
Three, Three, Three Stories in One!
Like the Mighty Circus, it’s hard to follow what’s going on in all three rings of this sucker. But let’s give it a go:
- Bitcoin is crashing. Down to the $38,000 region. All because? I mean at least in part:Federal Reserve is taking the next step toward possibly launching a digital dollar. They have no reason to convert in from anything not of their own spawn.
- There is War in the air all over the world. Donbas update: Russian mercenaries breach truce five times Jan 20. And while the U.S. had military trainers in Taiwan, where the chips could fall later this year, our next-door Canucks are training Ukrainians: Canada to continue UNIFIER military training mission in Ukraine – media (ukrinform.net) which has been extended for another six-months.
- Last, we have the Vax Breakdown. England has let it out while it’s all-over popular media. Pandemic Pessimism Grows Amid Omicron Surge (gallup.com).
Notice something missing?
Economic Collapse Card Turns
When did we tell you to brace?
- Jan. 14? Crash Alert (Not Doom Porn: BUT It’s Time to Worry)
- Jan. 15? Charts Are Warning Again
- Jan 18? Our Future: 3 Down and Bang
I told you Nov. 26 (yeah, last year) the odds were that we would not be having a good turkey in 2022. December we wanrs of war late Jan to early Feb.
Our subscriber site, Peoplenomics.com, follows a crackpot economic theory of mine that economic cycles are reasonably self-similar. Here’s today’s pickle:
That “Landing Zone” in yellow could be hit in as little as two weeks, IF we don’t get a “miracle save in the end zone” in here. Otherwise, war on!
Our Wave Count:
There was a possible 3 (4) during the rally yesterday. That rally allowed some of us “Die hard with a Checkbook” Bears to re-enter short positions with the S&P 40-points up at mid-morning Thursday before collapse into the close ending down 50.
My projected trend channel for this wave down is only based on the flimsiest of notions. Specifically, when markets are operating in reasonable channels, they tend toward being of similar size. Refer to the two vertical yellow double arrows above. The left arrow measures the eyeballed width of the Wave 1 down channel. The right one, supposes a similar channel width which – in turn – provides for a lot more downside action ahead.
And this is all leading up to the lower green arrow as a possible short-term rally in our first chart. Congrats to the Financial Fractalist, my deflationary pal Jas Jain, and even Len down in Lockstralia which dropped 2-1/3 percent overnight. Every6 so often, the Bears get fed.
Just remember what the Economic Fractalist thinks about this coming Monday. Which will have me cheering the Bull’s for a week ending rally, we hope.
Sounds terrible? I guess if you’re not agile it was a bloodbath, perhaps. But, in the event of actual war, this (argues the first chart above) this is only foreplay.
Yet, George is not the lone nutjob. “We’re in a “superbubble”, says Jeremy Grantham – so are we heading for a “superbust”? | MoneyWeek” Good company.
Problems of the G20
Look for huge pressure on the G20 to open the money spigots.
See how the US has dropped below the lower support line? Can you imagine a low taking out the early 2020 levels? Be patient and watchful. Discerning is good, too. The G20 will have to turn on all it has shortly, as we see it. SuperBubble is in danger of collapse so we must print and gimme to spend our way into prosperity, isn’t that it?
Crooked Data Dept.
OK: So with the reports piling up all over the net that vaccines don’t seem to work – especially with OhMyCon, how do the vax makers keep the charade going?
Well, as these latest stats from the UK point out, let’s only track people with three or more shots and make THAT the baseline! Scare the remaining stupes.
Also, mid right side, absolutely NO reason to vax kids yet, but that’s really subserviant to the marketing problems which are bigger.
And in Other News?
OK, Chris Tyreman (The Chronicle Project and books on Amazon) dropped us a video with a note: “This man needs to be your president.” We wholly agree, someone should be President nowadays!
(Or, for Mike who blocks videos: https://youtu.be/3eqeqqDVHKQ)
Normally in here, I would cover a lot of other “stuff and things.”
But there are no major economic news items to drop (besides the Netflix disappointment)
Short column this morning. Ure is in a trading mood. All the charts, a good bit more commentary and more thoughtful this weekend on Peoplenomics. Time to get into the Scrooge McDuck suit.
Write when you get rich,