I am so fit to be tied I could just spit.  Just when I thought democrats couldn’t get anymore stupid, this headline in the  Washington Times catches my eye:

“Smart move or grave mistake? NYC keeps schools open.”

What God’s name is their demagogic logic?  Well, says the story “They’re keeping the nation’s largest school system open to ensure that health and emergency workers aren’t tied down with kids at home…” 

WTF??? Why does NYC ONLY elect imbeciles?  Is it a requirement?

Here we have a crystal-clear example of how left-wing, political bullshit – serving an agenda of “political convenience and correctness” is doing its best to kill America. 

Consider some facts:

Sorry about convenient meals for kids programs which would be shut. Tought, that.  But everyone needs to step up in tough times – including and especially parents who have a responsibility from birth to age 18 to care for those they brought into the world.

We view this PANDEMIC as ultra-serious – as we have consistently said since day one.

Looks to us like the democrat agenda is in full-swing in NYC.

Secret?  Sure:  First responders already know that when TSHTF they need to be ready with plans for their childcare options.  Anmd wives/spouses, loved one.  The job comes first.   The runaway tax-bandits of New York’s Nanny-State have shown their true colors again.

New York politicians are taking an active role in helping COVID kill Americans.

Granted that’s hard for a rational person to grasp…but we have multiple pandemics in play right now.  One, nominally, is COVID-19.  The others are Media Hysteria, Political Stupidity, and Inept Leadership (and in both parties).

Don’t know if you’ve got the “upstairs horsepower” to generalize this, but here’s how we see it:

America is like an airplane in flight.  We have suffered a major upset of normal flight configuration…the aircraft is out of control and a Crash may be imminent. (Or, hadn’t you noticed the markets?)  Now we have self-righteous of both parties making absolutely bogus political decisions on what anyone with a spreadsheet can see are unconscionable decisions. The politicians are working to ensure the Crash.

Today’s Spreadsheets

You know my son is a firefighter/EMT/HazMat/infectious disease tracker.  So obviously, I run out numbers for him on a daily basis.  Here are some numbers you need to know:

Caution:  Don’t get complacent because the number of new cases rate dropped a bit today:  It’s the weekend and reporting is noisy from a statistical standpoint.

Looking at the Global Case count and projecting 5 Days:

Then, projecting deaths at the 3.5% mortality rate (noisy) it looks like this into late summer globally:

By Labor Day, the global death count could be 285-million.  Optimistically, let’s call it half that (142.5-million) because not everyone will be infected.  Germany is worrying a much higher rate, 70%, but we will think in terms of 142.5-million.

There are 7.6 billion people in the world, .330 billion (330-million) in the US, so our share of the pain could run upwards of 6-million.  CDC has copped to 1.87-million in their worst case outlooks –  so far

Good News for My Son’s Department

My son’s fire departement is semi-rural on the east slopes of the Washington Cascades.  Population of the county is around 76,000.  Here’s the outlook I’ve given him for coming weeks:

As you can see, right there are likelyonly 1 or 2 carriers/cases in a small county.  Even less here in Anderson County Texas with a population of under 60,000.

That’s why we are not completely freaked:  Low pop density is a good thing.

Still, you can see that the case count will be ramping up quickly now and shortly thereafter, the deaths will be along.

Which is why being ready to self quarantine is important and has been since we ramped up coverage in early February.  Speaking of which:

An Urban Self-Check

We want to puke at the lack of media work and coverage on how bad this could be.  You may remember we started pushing out date and frequency forecasts in mid February.

Here, on Feb 25, you will see we were forecasting that by March 16 we would be at 101,343 and deaths would be 3,413.  As it turns out, we were about 40 percent low, but then again, we didn’t know how stupid public officials would be (he said, gesturing in the direction of NYC again…).

Remarkably, the Mortality rate number we forecast early-on  – 3.368% – isn’t that far from what’s shown  in the larger sample today (3.533%).

We are in no way presenting that our work is any better than more mathematically-based outlooks, but our ball park numbers – from almost a month ago – have been specific and head & shoulders above what other so-called “media experts” have been using.  We give dates and numbers for what they’re worth.

In  real journalism you put in all the caveats, but in order for people to make useful plans,specificity is required.  Generalities are what get people killed.  (*That and bad decision, with another nod to the northeast…) Information needs to be specific both in number and in the timeframe.  Otherwise its useless.

One last thing on point:  Make sure in your news intake you stick to KNOWLEDGE and run from statements of BELIEF.  KNOWEDGE is based on FACTS and this other thing…science.  Beliefs are based on human bullshit. Can;t anyone in NYC run a forecast??? FMTT!

It’s time now to hunker down, watch the numbers like a hawk, and see whether (as we posed early) the US FedGov can out-print a freefalling economy.

Drop by Monday for more as we update the “fight for control of the aircraft” as the plane’s ultimate impact with the ground looks to us like it’s becoming more inevitable.

Oh…and when more cases come, be sure to thank the political expediency gang in NY for at least part of of the horror.

When it’s over, we need a Bioweapon version of Nuremberg Trial and we need a wall.

Crimes against humanity are NEVER in style.  Hear that, New York?

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

FED Panics: Synthetic Depression Looms
Prepping for Quarantine