With the stock market dropping more than 1,000 points (by the Dow) Monday, it’s hard to imagine how things could get worse.
The problem is in the data – and the data is saying much bad juju is still ahead.
Today, we have cases at 80,289 and deaths at 2,704.
Let’s plug these latest into our handy-dandy paranoid planning tools and see what gives. First is our “OUTING METHODOLY LIES spreadsheet. Notice how the rate of infection has dropped? LOL…not in Nature, no silly, of course NOT. But in government, I’d wager…or in lack of working test kits? Hell yeah:
This is not particularly useful as a projector (juju to come), but it really slams home the results of a) not having enough good, working tests, and b) it shows how governments (worldwide) are sitting on the data now. They’re in full panic mode, trying to remain calm.
Importantly, though, South Korea will today, we expect, pass through 1,000 cases. In the USA we’re up to 53 cases now. One doctor pal says when the USA gets to 100 cases, your odds of exposure go to about a in 670, or thereabouts.
(Tell me, you already have a month of food stored, right????)
OK, let’s go to method of projecting, then: Here’s how we pencil this out: We take this morning’s numbers (80,289 and the 2,704) and we compare them with the WHO 5-day-ago number. This gives us a simple 5-day percent change which we then project forward into the early summer to see how good (or bad) things will be:
A little blurry (trying to make it fast-loading for phones) but you can see that we could pass through 10,000 dead and a third of a million cases by, oh, end of June, or so.
UNLESS – and this is the part that’s hard to estimate – the global system begins to implode sooner – and that’s what yesterday’s market drop was about.
Here’s the thing: Now that we have begun to have a moment of recognition, we can predict something of a “Turn-Around Tuesday.”
In Elliott wave terms, the question is “Was Monday a Wave 1 Down” and how long might a Wave 2 Up from today last?”
Planning a trip to South Korea? Coronavirus live updates: CDC raises travel warning for South Korea, US airlines waive cancellation fees. With one daughter & hubby planning to vacation in Japan in September….I keep telling them “make an alt. plan…”
Hey…speaking of Asia travel, did you see where Boeing close to deal to supply more 787 Dreamliners to Japan’s ANA, sources say? We gotta wonder what the deal-breakers (lawyers) will put in the fine print for a “Just in case there’s no international air travel” clause. (Or, am I the only one so paranoid and forward-looking? Boeing hasn’t been the same since Roberto retired, as I see it.)
One oddity of supply chain, that I hadn’t thought through: Paramount Pictures halts production of ‘Mission: Impossible VII’ in Italy due to coronavirus outbreak. (That and will there be a John Wick IV coming? Now we’re into mindless ‘Merican supply chain stuff…but we can’t work all the damn time, can we?)
Dumbest headline of the day: NY Times gets our nod for “The World Isn’t Ready for a Major Coronavirus Outbreak.” No shit, they figure this out without help?
One cornerstone to surfing CVM (corona virus markets) will be the Housing data which will be along in a few minutes and we’ll have it on about 16-minutes past the hour.
And since we both eat on a regular basis, here’s some actual news/data that’s useful: Trader Joe’s, Wegmans, and H-E-B in Three-Way Tie Atop Retail Sector, Besting Amazon, American Customer Satisfaction Index Data Show.
IT Job Security?
May depend how much managers know about AI and how to deploy it in the server-farm world. Based on a quick scan of Gartner Says Over 40% of Privacy Compliance Technology Will Rely on Artificial Intelligence in the Next Three Years.
You have coded all your passwords to vendors and services, right?
Ah, the selling of socialism marches on! Also known as complete lack of budget sense and nationalization ala Venezuela, is seen in Bernie Sanders calls Donald Trump a liar and explains democratic socialism. Not as honest as “Taking 101” but near enough. As we’ve said many times, “Free luncher’s” sound great if you’re hungry, dumb, or both. If you get stuck with the tab for everyone? Well, not so appetizing. You go Bernie Castro…to some other worker’s paradise, pah-leez…
Dear Left-Wing BS’er
There’s a part of this website that you may not be aware of – and it’s the part where I personally review everything posted as a comment before it goes up on the site. As you might expect, there is a ton of spam and also a fair amount of personal attack crap.
Take this morning, for example: Had one comment with the subject line “You just lost a subscriber…” And then it went off on a wildly imaginary take on what we write here.
But, here’s the thing (and it’s laughably simple, if you’re a grown-up): The I.P. address logged as the comment origination point is NOT a Peoplenomics subscriber I.P. address. People come and go from Urban all the time.
I have to admit, I ran it out of curiosity. Because there wasn’t ONE part of the rant that Peoplenomics goes off on. Peoplenomics is generally very light on politics. For the simple reason that politics – at its core – is an essentially useless endeavor. And, to underscore the point, remember that as an American
Victim Voter, you only get a single really solid “moment of input” to your elected officials every two, four, or six YEARS. When you pull the lever or mark a box.
The rest of the time, government is on auto-pilot.
There are exceptions, of course. Those being if you have money and can “buy a grassroots movement.” Budget from $1,000 for a mid-sized city government issue, on up to (what is the NRA spending, for example?) millions defending a constitutional right. Cue the Vanna White “Big Money! Big Money!” track. Which, BTW, is the only reason I play Wheel of Fortune at the slots…but I digress.
If you are a subscriber, and really have a beef, you have my personal email address. I’m very responsive (as real subscribers know). But, if you’re so wrapped up in hate that you have to write bullshit like “You just lost a subscriber” anonymously – at least man-the-f*ck up and use a real name and email. People are brave in the dark, aren’t they?
More in the Housing numbers in about 15-minutes…
Whee! Fed just dropped $74.46 billion in from the repo depot. Feel the rally, yet?
Write when you get rich,