We have been following the “Replay of 1929” for almost 20-years now. As of the close Wednesday, here’s how things lined up in our work:
Several items of note to followers of this indicator:
- It is based on an Aggregate Index we developed in 2000. That is, equal dollars in the Dow, high tech, and the S&P 500. Because in the wake of the Tech Wreck, Wall Street wasn’t forthcoming about the costs experienced by small investors when the Internet Bubble burst.
- We are possibly in a period parallel to the period run from May 29, 1929 to the all-time high of September 3, 1929. If so, we should see a decline begin by mid-March 2020.
- Our Aggregate Index was up on Wednesday even though the Dow was down. That’s because Tech was up – again.
Good luck “investing.” Since February, the Fed and Treasury have increased the amount of money in circulation by $3.6 trillion dollars at M2. That’s a big “thumb on the scale” to the upside.
And it matters because economic statistics like Gross Domestic Product are [dollarized] numbers. What matters to humans is unit sales and calories. But in the “investment” world there’s a huge disconnect with the “living human world.”