Another Model appears!
No, you perv, not the sort with staples in her midriff. No, this is the kind that says things like “=’D-Data’!B808” and whispers sweet inferences like “=(AVERAGE(B723:B808))-B808” to our never-ending delight.
This’ll take a minute to explain, so slurp-along and follow. This is possibly useful with the Fed meeting today and announcement tomorrow.
- It is axiomatic that the role of Great Depressions is to destroy savings. I think this one is pretty clear; evidenced-based and all.
- It’s also true that in the Depression process, “capital returns to its owners.”
- In the general case of America, the capital ought to flow, therefore, back to We the People. I mean, in theory.
(I use asymptotes, rather than assumptions, because these really are “not-quite-touching ideas.)
Mechanics of the Trade
The mechanics of this will be invisible to most people – because it is spread out over nearly geologic time scales. Or, measured in Decades, not flash-trades.
So, what IF:
- A very rich group of high-minded public servants (and maybe even key bankers) came up with a mechanism to blow up bubbles over extremely long periods of time?
- This would enable the political class to spread free lunches all about.
- And all of the banker class would seem to benefit.
- But now suppose further that the logical limitation of currency saturation in the Mazurok-Ure work of 2001 is actually true? It says, in so many words that while governments can load debt into fiat currency, there is a hard deck somewhere down around 2-5% of residual value. Below this level, people will simply cast off “money.” Revolutions blow up. Venzuela, et al.
- During the “casting off” period, what would ideally happen?
- New forms of “money” would reveal themselves as popular – and we have seen this is the cryptos.
- The government would initially further the inflationary blow-off forcing end-stage long wave economic bubble prices to hit “Moonward and Muskward.”
- But then, as the debt has been (more or less) evenly foisted back on the Nuevo Rich of the cycle, the government then withdrawals its support.
- And as a consequence, the debt (to be destroyed in the economic cycle) is not that of government. Instead, it will have been “flipped” on to the balance sheets of pension funds, insurance companies, temporary billionaires, and other people who have seemingly achieved riches beyond just desserts.
This crackpot theory of the day sounds capricious and absurd. It should be relegated instantly to the land of hangovers and one-time dates.
Well, except for ONE tiny detail.
What the Fed is now in position to pull off (by announcing a steady course of tapering) is to effectively ensure that the “debt to be destroyed” takes apart all kinds of rich people’s fortunes.
Sure, it will be a miserable few years working through. But through a program I’d call “Selective Economic Demolition Planning” (SEDP) the Fed will be in a position whereby the Taper will cause huge anguish. Hedgies will go to bed at night unsure of whether there will ever be another reverse repo – and inconveniences like that.
Three things then happen:
- The Fed gets to stay in business.
- The present baked-in hyperinflation will be offset by pending deflation due to destruction.
- While a many “first level debts” will be allowed to remain, “second level and above” (like carboard boxes full of mortgages – which as a pile act sort of like a bond – and which are called Collateralized Mortgage Obligations) will become (as the ability to manage the coming complexity at a profit) will drive the “New Big but still Weak” hands from the grownup’s table.
If my son wasn’t so busy off on his adventures, I’d liken the process to a “controlled burn.” Which is how many landowners deal with brush and undergrowth. Let the brush grow its little heart out, then dry and torch with a tanker rig standing by.
The same concept (burning back to good ground) happens in economics all the time. It’s just that we can’t be sure (due to the odd mix of government security AND incompetence) whether the “controlled burn” scenario laid out here could actually be pulled off.
Nevertheless, if the Fed goes hard on tapering at the announcement tomorrow, it can be seen as part of a “controlled burn” of the economy. Still only a year since Slow Joe stumbled into office. And the “burn” will remind a few of the brighter Nuevo Rich on which side of their bread to apply butter. Cash.
We expect, therefore, one party to be using economic decline to raise more money as their clientele are “nudged” via the promise of special favors. But only with a big enough check. Any other souls lost in the economic fire are collateral damage with replacements readily in place.
Which may explain why open borders is in place: Could it be that open borders are really about prepositioning White/Middle Class people replacements so they (we) can be, in turn, usefully blamed as the “cause of the meltdown.”
This is a computational model that has some merit. Regrettably, though, it may be a spontaneous artifact of processing and not a conscious plan. Because we hold the Truth self-evident that governments are usually collections of lucky fools, not deep thinkers.
It is, though, something to hold up for “fit testing” as shit runs into war and walls in 2022.
War and Walls – it’s the new ‘Merica in 2022.
Back that bad-boy up. Now pull the red lever to dump a load from Labor! PPI-PPO…yippee kai yai yai….
“The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand
index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.
In November, the index for final demand services rose 0.7 percent and prices for final demand goods increased 1.2 percent.”
Hoo-rah. If you’re not asleep yet, goods at the final demand level are going up 15.38% annualized. Shortly, misgovernment will announced plans to rescript the bad-news prices and make up some more falvorful crooked pabulum.
NFIB SBOI (“Computer, explain?” “Ure an idiot: National Federal of Independent Business, Small Business Optimism Index, your turd!”)
“A net 59% of small business owners increased prices, the highest level since 1979.
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in November by 0.2 points to 98.4. Four of the 10 Index components improved, four declined, and two were unchanged. The NFIB Uncertainty Index decreased four points to 63.”
“Key findings include:
- Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased one point to a net negative 38%, tied for the 48-year record low reading. This indicator has declined 18 points over the past four months to its lowest reading since November 2012.
- The net percent of owners raising selling prices increased six points to a net 59% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading since October 1979.
- Seasonally adjusted, a net 54% of owners plan price hikes, up three points from October and a 48-year record high reading.
- Forty-eight percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, a decrease of one point from October.
After the numbers, the market was wondering what happened to drive the Monday decline. Honestly (which means I don’t hold office!) things could fall either way right now. Into a 4(e) up or we may be in 5(i) down.
Time for a care check? Anybody care? No?
Me either. I’m in my year-end wash sale run-out period. It would take something like a sure thing and 3X return to get me swinging in this dive, again.
Facts or Vax? You make the call!
Regrettably, studies like Reduced neutralisation of SARS-COV-2 Omicron-B.1.1.529 variant by post-immunization serum | medRxiv are not terribly simple reading. However, the gist of it is: Two-dose vaccines don’t induce enough antibodies against omicron: research.
Being a simpleton (it’s easy for me, not pretending here), the choices for Elaine and me are still?
- Take the vax and throw the dice on side effects, remembering we would give up our “pureblood” standing and once you vax, no going bax.
- OR, Ounch and Fauch, get three (at least), and then every time your immune system rebels and can’t handle a new invader, toss in more vax to stimulate the declining immune system to get you past just this one more. Says the 100-day mask promise bullshitters.
Wrong method of action for omicron? São Paulo says it has fully vaccinated 100 percent of its adults. Will it be enough to stop omicron? Our money is on no. At least without another insult to the immune system for Big Money, Big Money, Big Power….Oops. Got caffeined away with myself, sorry.
Great way to depopulate America to make room for Mexico. But in reality, if population was really being killed off, there would be tons of dead people’s used cars on the market; there aren’t. There would be too many homes on the market and prices would collapse, which they haven’t.
And most pertinent of all? Flu deaths during peak flu season were running 4,500 a week according to influenza data in 2019. Yet, in 2020, only 45 a week TOPS.
To an aging simpleton like me this screams “Rent Your Life” and “mark of the Beast” but you gotta call it like you see it. Well, except in the city of Idiot Love. There, the MoB (Mark of Beast) is being test-fitted as COVID-19 in Philly: Philadelphia rolling out vaccination requirements for food establishments. Take the mark or no food or oil?
Look, I’m not a Bible thumper. I’m a science and data kind of fellow. But I do recognize a 2000-year “predictive linguistics hit” when I see one in Revelations 13: 16-17:
“16 It also forced all people, great and small, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hands or on their foreheads, 17 so that they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of its name.”
Number as in vax batch? Hmm… A few inches off on the body parts, but Number of the Beast for a Philly cheese indoors rolls now…
See why I’m busting ass on additional greenhouse square-footage now? Noah did rain. Ure’s doing food and water. But this has been stated how many times around here? “Must be present to win” and “Don’t live for maximum gain’ instead live for zero loss.”
But to each their own.
But at this rate, the Mark will eventually be required to get Social Security and/or healthcare. Observe but don’t see, grasshopper.
Clippings and Snipping’s
Crooks in Congress? Well, duh! ‘Conflicted Congress’: Key Findings From Insider’s Five-Month Investigation (businessinsider.com).
Hype and joke smoke from Buyed ’em: Online passports is a big deal? WH aims to restore faith in government by improving services. Very big deal stalled by the demogress until they need to have a layup for voters. Online passports so you can MoB a flight somewhere to spend watered down dollars in similarly burdened and locked-down shitholes? Um…thanks, but we’ll pass.
Going to Spain? Please, make a note of it: The Spanish phone numbers to avoid if you don’t want to be overcharged (thelocal.es). On the other hand, caution on other destinations because U.S. – CDC Urges Americans To Avoid Travel To Italy, Greenland And Mauritius. Damn, we’ll have to pass on the Vatican Christmas party, looks like.
Oh boy! Monetizing newsrooms that are monetizing climate. Journalism and Climate Change: new guide to help newsrooms rise to the challenge. Our climate guide is much smaller. Call bullshit and ask hardball questions. Little too hard on the namby-pamby crowd? Not what Editor Thompson said.
OK, whose lap would you pick: Santa or Kim Kardashian? American’s fascination with “star power” is shocking. This is a story, alright: Kim Kardashian Reveal Insane Christmas Decoration. AYFKM?
Fools Born Every Minute file: Dogecoin Gains 25% After Elon Musk Confirms Tesla Will Accept DOGE For Goods. BTC around $47,500.
And does the Woke Idiocy ever stop? Common sense fail! Woke California school boards BAN teachers from giving D and F grades. Brilliant! Reminds me of the Garrison Keillor line “...and where all the children are above average…” Pass me a Powder Milk Bisquit, wouldja?
ATR (Around the Ranch)
Put in a useful day working on the final part of our 2022 outlook for Peoplenomics up tomorrow.
Dinner last night? That big prime rib we split Sunday resulted in some of the best-ever prime rib stroganoff over wide egg noodles last night.
Texas weather will be cloudy/rainy through Sunday, so Mr. ShopTalk will be tearing down trees, expanding storage, and laying patio block. Not as much fun to put up sidewalls in the rain. Hard on power tools, even the battery-powered ones.
Zeus the Cat came back home. Spent a couple of nights in the woods. Worried about the big Lab watchdogs.
That mystery remains unsolved. We figure someone must have found ’em and brought them home. Or they don’t like the company here. Could I even possibly be too grouchy?
Still trying to figure out what to get us for Christmas. We seem to have 2 or 3 of everything.
Funny story about too many tools, since I’m usually the guilty party: While I was making the stroganoff sauce last night, I did a quick inventory of Elaine’s cache of kitchen tools. Ready for this? 9, yessir – count ’em – 9 pancake turners.
Two of ’em are my faves: They have semi-flexible blades. One plastic, one metal. Elaine has flat and firm turners, turners with holes in them, turners for the wok and matching fishing spoon, BBQ flippers…the list goes on.
It did give me some Christmas ideas for the shop, though. A quick count says between the car tools, general shop, electronic bench, and computer rolls, there are still less than 60-screwdrivers. (Excludes Torx, 2-cycle carb adjusters, nutdrivers, and so on.)
This has to change. Right now.
Made my first New Year’s resolution, too: Going to make something in 2022 which will require the use of my Cleco clamps and pliers. You can’t be a proper tool slut without you Aircraft Specialty Original Cleco Fastener Deluxe Kit- Cleco Fasteners, Clamps, and Padded Pliers! Made in USA.
Dow futures sinking – down 100 now at clicktime.
Like Mr. the Italian Hungry Man said: “Ciao for now…”
Write when you get rich,