Let’s begin with a “freebie” for you. Made possible by those $40/year high-rollers who subscribe to our Peoplenomics newsletter.
We use an Aggregate View of markets to reveal what the real money flows are telling us. This arose from my frustration when – in the wake of the NASDAQ blow-down as the Internet Bubble popped 2000-2003 – the financial industry quoted only “Indices of Convenience.” Those that were going UP; not the ones on the skids.
This approach has given us a unique view of the economy over the years. And this morning, a set of “trading boxes” ( a simple visual tool to understand Elliott wave relationships ) will be completing with today’s open which was a shade-higher on the futures:
As should be clear (it won’t be) the top of the smallest trading box was exceeded briefly yesterday and is likely to poke higher at the open.
But to us, there’s an Elliott count screaming “Caution” though we don’t offer financial advice. Just commentary. Of the “Don’t crush that Dwarf and Hand Me the Pliers” type.
Doesn’t mean we can’t get yet-another sub-division of the wave structure. Just means don’t walk under ladders.
Racism and its Reverse
Much is being made in the liberalista press in news stories seeming to cast White people as discriminating against Black.
An inference example? “White farmer wins temporary halt to program for Black counterparts (nbcnews.com) as an example.
Long ago, when I was teaching young 1970’s Broadcast Journalism Interns (UW CMU 367 was the course) I said the easiest way to test whether a story was “balanced” was to rewrite it with roles reversed and see how a Policy would sound.
In the example above, the headline would re-write (roles reversed) as “Black Farmer wins temporary halt to program for White counterparts.” How would that play in the mainstream?
If the story wouldn’t “play exactly the same” there’s a crooked Policy revealed – one that doesn’t support FULL ABSOLUTE TOTAL EQUALITY. (Which we DO around here.)
Simply “flipping your thinking” reveals the underlying social divider agenda in the Biden administration. Making up money for one race and responding with a program of White-shaming in the press when caught doesn’t seem to us like its Good for the country.
America’s Big Slide
This inability to simply “flip the story” – to see the other side of things – is not only part of basic critical thinking; it seems to be a massive historical shift. Humans now accept things based on unsp0ken, unvoted Agendas of others. Gibberish is accepted on its face while deeper agendas must not be questioned.
I was chatting with a highly decorated military fellow about this recently. He said something remarkable in passing: “Actually, these days Hickam has been morphed into its neighbor, and the whole mess is called Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickam. Horrible name.” Unremarkable? You think?
The observation prompted (“The Pen is Mightier than the Brain“) Ure to write back:
“LOL – just like my life-long pal “the Major” bemoans about “Jib-Lum” – Joint Base Lewis-McChord down the street from his place.
“When the Army flies BUFF’s and the Air Force digs trenches, then perhaps it would make sense.
But here in the Outback, this “gender slippage” between the service branches was merely a set-up to the grand psychological “de-barrierizing” that has moved on to merging sexes, genders, races, preferences, religions, national origins, and so much more.
We have taken a melting pot, confused it with a Blender and turned it on.
It’s “Waring” on me. And my reaction will get me “Oster-cized” for sure.”
Critical George Theory sights the shadow of something not mentioned by the Anti-Fragility sheep: As complexity multiplies, people “combine notions” – often incorrectly – in a misguided attempt to cope with information overload. Simplify to stupefy.
Apple’s persistence in computing I believe traces to having only ONE mouse button, not two. Easy-peasy for the hazy-lazy.
Not following? Check your plumbing and get back to me. Just realize that if you even countenanced the thought of looking, you may have already passed the Point of No Return.
Tyreman Answers the Why
Before we get to the personal income data (you do like a good
“official jo9ke” right?) remember that America has a terrible strategic issue looming. We are being “climatized” into financial disaster. My friend Chris Tyreman’s done a piece on how A.I. and Driverless is already bearing down on us:
The Big Ugly Financial Obstacle (*BUFO) for America’s future is we have too many people and robotics and A.I. are all lining up to invoke a Technological Feudalism on us. One where Balancing the Books won’t matter. The Warlords of Tech will just “declare” and it will be So. Crypto cynic, anyone?
Already, we can see how Tech is handing out payoffs to ensure corporate autonomy. In stories like Microsoft Exemption From Antitrust Bill Followed Company Donation to Top Democrat.
Techno Dark Ages
Ure flips again. Under Feudalism of the Middle Ages:
“…nobility held lands from the Crown in exchange for military service, and vassals were in turn tenants of the nobles, while the peasants (villeins or serfs) were obliged to live on their lord’s land and give him homage, labor, and a share of the produce, notionally in exchange for military protection…”
We rewrite Future History as:
“…Technology held lands from the Government in exchange for financial service, and corporate vassals were in turn tenants of the Techs, while the mere citizens (or serfs) were obliged to live on their corporate land and pay plus a share of their labors, notionally in exchange for government protection…”
A sketch of present direction. Which ensures Globalism triumphs because with A.I. and travel limits, vax, food, and social controls, the only alternative is appeasement.
Speaking of Appeased
So much for “Feel-Good data” when comes to Personal Incomes and Expense:
“Personal income decreased $414.3 billion, or 2.0 percent at a monthly rate, while consumer spending increased $2.9 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in May. The decrease in personal income reflected declines in pandemic-related assistance programs.”
Which will drive the markets up, at least till someone figures out we’re in a balloon bigger than the Hindenburg.
Great economics observations are being tallied with the price of lumber falling almost to the $840 handle overnight. Still haven’t seen much in the Mess Media admit the histrionics about “Adding $40,000 to the price of a new home” needs a little updating. Charitably, give ’em time. Real data is hard, you know.
Since we have a deck project pending, I called the local lumber emporium this week and found prices are little changed from April when I first started pricing the job:
Several problems are coming: Not the least of which is son George II is on a 6,000 fire line in Oregon today. Small compared to the Lionshead fire at over 100,000 acres last year, but looks like building materials could be a fall & winter to “thread the needle” as supplies edge toward tight next year – depending how the fire season rolls.
That and Brinks might want to consider armed escort services for sheet-goods. Glue-ups and planers to the front of the line, please.
Passings: Robert Felix
The Obit speaks volumes: Robert Felix | Obituaries | timesargus.com.
His work on climate was monumental. We hope the website continues.
Heads-down, but empty: Strategy Analytics: Half the World Owns a Smartphone. Is half the world dumb?
Lucky you, Tax chattel: ‘We have a deal’: Biden announces bipartisan infrastructure agreement. $950 billion worth of special favors and paybacks. Can a made-up economy outlast the Great Depression or do we all sober-up at some point? ZeroHedge takes it apart in Goldman Throws Up Over Biden’s Infra Deal: It’s Too Small, It Probably Won’t Pass And We Have No Idea Who Will Pay For It.
Not in the Constitution: But the power grabs continue. San Francisco will require all city employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19: report. Meantime ‘Single most qualified’ mRNA expert speaks about vaccine risks after he says YouTube banned his video (reports Yahoo.com) We’re still isolated and in our own control group.
Recalls: Check Your Fridge for These Recalled Egg Products (lifehacker.com). Also did you see the note from PRO/AH/EDR> Foodborne illness – Ethiopia, Somalia: camel meat?
BTC was trading $33,549 this morning. Dow futures were +100 with an hour to the open.
Ham Radio Planner
Have a Great Friday. Ham radio Field Day Weekend so it you see a bunch of radio aficionados throwing things up in trees today, this is our idea of “radio sport.” Drop in and talk to ’em. Everyone is welcome.
I will post my CW (*Morse) plans tomorrow morning and offer some ideas on band conditions and such.
When Field Day is history remember there’s the Fourth a July with no mail (or markets) on Monday July 5. Also this time of year, a good chance to pick off a new ham radio certificate if you’re into that kind of thing. Might we recommend the radio “13 Colonies Special Event” stations?
Whine when you get rich,