A Time to Sit Out Rallies?

If you think there’s a stock market pop in the works – and we’re coming up on the pre-holiday window leading to Turkey (and the Friday after, sometimes called “national call your broker day” – back when there were humans, not mice running the show) rallies are tempting when the news flow turns.  Retail it out and it’s up.

The problem is that since October 3, we have been in a down market.  October 3, for example, our Aggregate Index was 25,006 and change.  As of the Wednesday close it was down to 22,838.  Down more than 8-1/2 percent.  We worry there’s more downside to come.  The Stock Buy-back Bubble ending, perhaps?

Even though the futures showed +86 on the Dow when we looked earlier today, and with a sometimes buoyant holiday pending, we have found through very costly trading errors (in other words, losing $10-grand betting against the trend), that betting against the general market direction is a fools game..

Not that it hasn’t offered some “educational benefits” in personal trading style, but I’d have been money-ahead to read a half dozen books, lol.  Would have been a much cheaper education..

As always, this is NOT trading advice – your money is your own business.  We’re still mindful of the “major decline hot dates” we posted on October 26th which included the spectacularly good call for a decline starting November 9 – last Friday.  We made a bunch back on that call.

If I only had the discipline to follow my own work – rather than ad-libbing along the way – I’d be a richer man.  Had the same “ad-libbing” problem back in my radio days…  One of the hardest things to learn in life is “Sticking to the Script.”

And, when the script begins to look wrong, be willing to scamper back to cash before Mr. market administers a financial enema.

Now, having said that…still no slowdown in sight as….

Retail Sails

You can see it in the chart:

Drilling down we read:

“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $511.5 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above October 2017.

Total sales for the August 2018 through October 2018 period were up 5.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2018 to September 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Retail trade sales were up 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2018, and 4.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Gasoline Stations were up 16.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from October 2017, while Nonstore Retailers were also up 12.1 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year. “

The stock market?  Dow actually went negative after the number…so where’s the Turkey Rally?

Stay tuned….

A Note to Al Gore:

1. What is with all these ice storm warnings in the Southeast?  And 80-million in the path of a winter storm, already?

2.  Tell us again how people paid for a particular answer can pretend “objectivity”?

3.  Climate has been warming at a glacial pace since the Laurentide Ice Sheet began melting. Tell us how giving government more power and forking over more tax dollars changes that dynamic? Wasn’t NYC supposed to be underwater by now?

4,  Look up “Solar Minima and Maxima.”  No sunspots, no warming, isn’t it?

5.  Please schedule a climate talk in San Antonio which just hit the coldest date on record for 102 years…they can some hot air.

6. South of us, Houston’s earliest snowfall ever doesn’t exactly match the climate hype, either, does it?

Short answers only, since we can’t afford to pay-by-the-word like happens in, oh, politics or other vertical markets like fund-raising…

Ure’s truly… yada yada

OTOH: CalFires

56-dead so far and over 130 missing last time we checked. To be clear, It wasn’t the heat – it was the Santa Ana winds

Peloser?

Today’s “fake drama to drum up an audience” centers on the “Who Cares?” of House Speaker who will be the next Obstructionist in Chief Why, here’s a Yahoo/AP story on it.  Meantime, over on Politico we see Rep. Marcia Fudge being mentioned.  And CNN counts 17 democrats who are vowing to vote against her.

Here’s the thing:  It doesn’t matter who holds the gavel.  Politican vigilantism is coming to D.C.  You might as well put all that emotional energy (wasted on pseudo-news) into something useful.  A few extra miles on the treadmill, whether to have a croissant sandwich at lunch…you know things you can actuallty influence.  Otherwise, you’re a “Monetize Hype Enabler.”

The Peloser Meme is just that:  Emotional hot-buttoning to drive ad dollars.  because without emotionalism, people won’t be glued to [whatever] media and that’s hard on their revenue lines.

The WaPo Gets It Right

Because in a story about Hate and who should judge it, the Washington Post today subheads this:

Researchers at the Southern Poverty Law Center have set themselves up as the ultimate judges of hate in America. But are they judging fairly?”

The answer we think is an “Oh-Duh” but we’d remind you as we often do Everything’s a Business Model. 

Fortunately, here in the Outback, Zeus the Cat has agreed to Judge All Humans as Ultimate Supreme Arbiter of Reality.  Best of all, he’ll do it free.

“Hey, I’m a Cat, not a human – so I have no skin in the game like you bipeds. Mice – not money – for my kind.  Think about it! Only animals can Judge Humans fairly.  Get it right, Apeman.”

Alas…he may be onto something.

Woo-Woo: Perth/Fremantle?

There will be an upcoming weekend/Woo-Woo report over Thanksgiving where we’ll get into this more…BUT…

Had a hell of an “active” dream-space overnight with an adventure to Fremantle/Perth Australia.  Elements included a “Boeing office,” a college, hills, a fellow named Patrick who runs a string of rentals (AirBnB?) and so forth. No telling why the dream…just that it was very intense.

Equally curious, upon waking, I was able to watch my personal source code for a while. (First described back in 2015)

Curiously, not only did today’s “source code” reveal the usual runic symbology, but there were also charts…and they seemed to all show long-term downward trends.  Down on the right side.

Not sure what to make of it, but it was intense enough to mention and in light of coming “hot dates” for the market (we hit the 55-days from peak right after Thanksgiving) it’s worth mentioning.  Bet you can’t guess who will be watching headlines out of Australia over the next week, or so…

OK, waking-side reality has several projects on tap here, so off and running…‘moron the morrow…”

38 thoughts on “A Time to Sit Out Rallies?”

  1. re:

    re:Retail sales. As a retailer of hundreds of different things commonly needed by civilized man, inflation in the last year, and last month!, easily cancels out 4or 5% increase in retail sales.

    • Mr Wacky is Exacty right- unit sales year on year is the metric not govt stats – which is why we cite railroad stats so often…and container counts from port operations on the PN side…

    • yup Mr. Whacky.. And the 4 or 5 percent increase wipes out the 2 percent annual wage increase plus.. Which is the pebble hitting the pond.
      Now how big of a wave that creates depends on the amount of laborers that see this and cut spending which should in theory send that 4 or five percent shooting skyward in an attempt to keep doors open by covering the lost income.

  2. If I only had the discipline to follow my own work – rather than ad-libbing along the way – I’d be a richer man.  Had the same “ad-libbing” problem back in my radio days…  One of the hardest things to learn in life is “Sticking to the Script.”

    George I would like to make one change: “I WOULD BE A RICH MAN” Your advice (but not investment advice) has been right on, but for some reason you are fixated on making money when the market goes down (based on my readings over the past several years). It is not too late to change. The market goes up 75% of The time, & like in a casino, you want the odds in your favor.

    As in selling, sticking to the script is the difference between a sale or no sale. Re-read your “book on Selling” (which was excellent & should be required reading for all sales people).

    When I tried to use remote viewing & visions for investing, it was a disaster. It was fun, but not profitable, & I went back to the script.

  3. I have already petitioned my Congressmen to put Zeus on the ballot for Speaker of the House. At least him in an interview stretched out, licking his paws, yawning, and rolling over to take a nap, will just about reflect any member of Congress in their daily routine.

  4. Al Gore is a Climate Change Whore. He has made hundreds of millions of dollars off it, but continues to heat his pool & has one of the largest monthly electric bills in the country. And, of course, he is a liberal democrat, therefore not subject to press scruntity, like PT.

    • Or, notice how the MSM don’t laud George Bush 2 for his environmentally sustainable home over in Crawford, TX… just no pleezin the whiners…

  5. I religiously protect my health by not watching national news, but only the channel that broadcasts local info, and then not daily. By definition, all news is about bad stuff. Only rarely does news tell us about good things that are happening.

    At least with web surfing, I can control what I expose my mind to. I have no interest in taking what others are feeding us without evaluating whether it is worth my time. It usually isn’t.

  6. George, another good piece today on economics reminds me why I come to this site. But, really, another cheap shot at climate change?

    Let’s recap: 97% of published scientists say it’s a real and present human-made danger.

    Putting aside the emotional carping, if 97% of all reputable engineers said the main bridge in your town was unstable, would you drive your family over it? Or would you demand it be retrofitted? Best, Mike.

    • 97 percent of climate scientists would be out of a job if there was no climate change…what is so hard about following this?

      • Are the growing seasons getting longer? Well, yes they are.

        Are the Pinot Noir growers in the Willamette valley looking to move to Yakima because it is not getting cold enough at night to set their grapes? Well, yes.

        Are the glaciers on Mt Hood disappearing (and in Glacier Natl park as well? Yup.

        No scientists required to see the climate is warming.

    • Let’s recap: 100% of published scientists believe the world is flat, and sailing too near the edge is a real and present danger.

      If 97% of all engineers said anything, I’d ignore them. Engineering is a collection of highly-specialized and unrelated fields, most of which give an engineer a conclusion, then require him to find a path to that conclusion.

      If 97% of ANYONE said the bridge in my town was unsafe, I’d go over to the bridge and check it out for myself, because, in case you missed my first sentence, sometimes 100% of nearly-everybody is wrong.

      Why do you hate plants so much?

  7. Uh George, if the climate isn’t warming, how come the growing season keeps getting longer?
    “The last frost of the spring season now occurs roughly seven days earlier than it did 100 years ago, the study concluded, and the first frost of the fall strikes about five days later — though the trends did vary by region. Those frosts traditionally mark the beginning and end of a growing season, meaning that U.S. farmers have an average of 12 more days to plant, cultivate and harvest crops.”

    The study was done by the U of Nebraska, an ag U.
    https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/115-years-of-data-reveal-longer-us-growing-season-temp-trends/

    • try something more current – not based on 2016 data.
      How abouT:…We see a cooling trend,” Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center said in late September.
      “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”
      https://sputniknews.com/science/201811131069777647-Sunspot-Activity-Record-Low-Bitter-Winters/

      “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”t https://sputniknews.com/science/201811131069777647-Sunspot-Activity-Record-Low-Bitter-Winters/

      We like to bet on NASA – as they don’t have a fiduciary interest in making careers by making claims. they just get the job done…

      • Umm, the green house theory is that heat is trapped here in the atmosphere. Which all by itself might make the “near edge of space” space colder

        The Ag U is only interested in growing crops, so they are biased in being correct as well.

    • Maybe instead of measuring the last 115 years, UnivNebrasks should’ve gone back 700 years, when last frosts in Lincoln were around March first, and growing season lasted over two months longer than it does today.

  8. Amazon stock has tanked well over $200 the past week..$337 the past 90 days. . Could this be a precursor to a stagnant retail season? Or…is it the market creating the downware side of a slingshot in anticipation of Amazon shooting to record season for profiteers? I am not sure if I should buy the downside or not. I sold it all 2 weeks ago and put it into Tesla…which performed very well for me.

    I think Tesla has topped…but I am unsure about Amazon. I don’t see any indicators including port shipments that give me any excitement to buy.

  9. About the climate…Al Gore picked the wrong horse…Warming was not the choice. Climate change isn’t either. The man made problem is pollution….in all forms. For the past week, our air quality in the Bay Area has been abysmal due to the Camp Fires near Chico. We are several hundred miles away and we can smell the smoke in the air. It hurts my eyes…the way I feel and even excercising outside has become nearly impossible. High school football playoffs and other outdoor sports have been postponed for a week.

    Our air quality is worse than Beijing’s. It hard to imagine though that Beijing lives with this almost everyday. So does About every city in India, Zavala, Riyadh, Peshawar, Kampala…and the American cities of Bakersfield, Cleveland, Harrisburg, Pittsburgh etc.

    Here in California, the Hazy, pinkish skies shields the sun and cools down the air. Our lack of high humidity keeps any heat from being trapped..so the past week or so..the days have been chilly..the nights in the 40’s.

    But, here is the kicker…bad air quality produces more emissions too…Now, most of California’s energy is renewable…less than 4% is coal generated. But imagine the states where this is not the case.

    Locally, we have seen more people staying indoors, using their furnaces on “air blow” as air filters, less people are biking to work and driving instead, which worsens our horrible traffic issues. It’s a never ending conundrum and if we don’t control emissions, we will have problems globally…not climate…My biggest fear is our own health.

    But that’s not all…We are killing our lakes, poisoning our drinking water, and our rivers which could lead to the toxic poisoning of one of the worlds largest food sources that comes from our inland waters and oceans.

    The EPA was started by Nixon to help regulate and reign in abuse. China’s own rich and powerful have seen the pollution affect them personally and has finally realized the need for monitoring air and water quality and is aggressively on board with monumental changes. India has been slower, but has taken steps in their larger cities to help comply.

    Forget the polar ice caps…Why isn’t anyone talking about human health implications? That seems way more important…and to those that make m0neynon this stuff…way more “marketable”

    • Will CA gas & electric bills rise? Pacific Gas & Electric, the largest CA Utility, seems to be on the hook for lawsuits over the fire. I noticed that PCG stock doesn’t pay a dividend, so investors don’t have to worry about a dividend cut, only the recent price cut.

      • Two reality check poionts: Utilities are govt regulated in terms of rates. Of course, with more money they would spend more on brush control etc and safety
        But more importantly, where is the conclusive proof that it was an electric co? hearing and seeing a spark in a previoyus time window is not conclusive – the only ones to make out on this fire will be law firms.

    • You are absolutely correct.

      No, Al Gore didn’t pick the wrong horse; he picked the perfect one. “Global warming” (or cooling, or “climate change”) is not a problem or an issue, past or pending.

      The only way “Global Climate Change” can EVER be an issue, is if it ceases. Should that ever happen, every plant and animal on Earth would die, within hours.

      Therefore, whether we pour contempt on the entire enterprise and religion (as I do), dump the entirety of our planetary wealth and resources into it, as the most-fervent religious nutcases believe we should, or anywhere in-between, it doesn’t matter — not now, not in a hundred years, or a thousand years, or a million years.

      “Global Climate Change” is a confidence game, nothing more, nothing less.

      As a matter of fact, it is the PERFECT con game because it can never be “solved.”

      On the other hand, global pollution IS a problem. It CAN be solved, even including that many-leagues-wide plastic island in the Pacific. However, there’s much less money to be made in solving a problem, than there is in feeding a con game, and there are actual metrics by which progress toward solutions can be measured.

      BTW, don’t know about Harrisburg, but Pittsburgh and especially Cleveland are immeasurably cleaner than they were 20-30 years ago. Until about 1995, driving through Cleveland ALWAYS meant replacing windshield wiper blades, because they would melt. I had them melt to the windshield so badly on one trip that I found myself in Lancaster, NY, on a Friday night, trying to buy steel wool pads in a rain storm, because steel wool soaked in gasoline was the only way to remove the ick. 30 years ago, on a bad-wind night, one could smell Akron from Wheeling, WV. Not any more. Real, tangible progress. We’re not there yet, but it is an actual problem, and it is getting fixed…

  10. Probably Theta Brainwaves…..

    Your process with the visual afterburn when waking from sleep is likely your way of tapping into theta brainwaves.

    Play with purple and blue colors. Do you ever see any purple or blue on the inner screen of vision? Often seen as a mist or fog, but also as more definite forms. This is the Blue Pearl of the mystics.

    Any other color is indicative of Alpha brainwave activity.

    Everybody has gone nuts for Alpha, but Theta gets you that sense of spiritual connection and/or connection to past trauma. It is your deep work and deep connection. Both PTSD flashback and Spititual Phone Line. So you have to process out the static and monsters to Phone Home.

    Most people stay in beta when awake. Little alpha and very little theta and no delta. Functional but low on creativity and intuition.

    Some people (mystics, meditators, yogis, people trained with brainwave biofeedback) can experience beta, alpha, theta, and delta – all at the same time – while wide awake. This brings creativity, spiritual connection, connection to others, and intuition/unconscious radar online with an active conscious mind — not just during sleep.

    Information source: Anna Wise/C Maxwell Cade and brainwave biofeedback training on the Mind Mirror back in the 80s.

    Interesting aside — why do people who have brain injury sometimes become psychic overnight and walk down the street hearing everyone’s thoughts? Because the healing process generates high amplitude delta waves even while awake.

    I once hooked a woman up to the Mind Mirror brainwave biofeedback meter and saw a huge stable delta signal. After pleasantries and other initial observations I cautiously asked if she had ever had a head injury. She had — car accident. Injury was on the side of the head where I was seeing the delta spike. And further cautiously asked if she began to have episodes of feeling like she could hear other people’s thoughts, or other psychic episodes after the wreck. Yes, she had. It had calmed down in the years since the wreck, however. That enormous delta spike was still there. She had probably learned to handle/filter out some of that unconscious radar info stream.

    Anna Wise left us a few years ago. Her books and a CD package are still available on Amazon. I miss her. A two week training class with her was life changing.

    https://www.amazon.com/Anna-Wise/e/B000APPD20/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1542301543&sr=1-2-ent

      • @NM Mike

        I’m really glad to hear that.

        I’m going to make another guess about, and recommendation for you.

        Do you tend to fall asleep any time the lights go low and you don’t have a lot of stimulation (think boring lecture), or any time you close your eyes and attempt to meditate?

        If so, find a meditation app where you can set a chime or gong to sound at intervals of your choice. Train yourself to stay awake with your eyes closed with minimal stimulation.

        Alternately, buy an ‘Ocean Drum’ or a ‘Rain Stick’. Just put those terms in Amazon. You are looking for just enough movement and sound to keep you awake and quietly aware as you learn to focus within.

        One more thing — HeartMath method. Basically just pretend you can breathe in and out of your heart. A very good organization and coordination point. Probably better than attempting to focus on the third eye area right off.

        May you find the Blue Pearl

  11. George, Ure not alone when it comes to sticking to disciplined trading program. Emotions and monkey mind are my 2 biggest culprits to successful, profitable trading. This is why I like to use a “roadmap”, as in take Ure target of 2520 on the S&P. I use that number as my target, and trade into positions that will profit greatly from any market moves(in the right direction). My personal fix for above referenced sticking to the plan is to always enter stop orders at 33% above and below strike price. Stop orders act as a cheap “hedge” or safety for me.They also help capture fleeting profits when the market is “moving” fast. And no I am not sending any $-% Ure way, Ure own fault for not trading your own “book”! bah humbug! Buy the dip in cyrptos, anyone?

    • Penny wise and pound foolish, Bear. See how my “rallies to sit out” call is working today?
      Oh…no…of course not. Too busy saving money to catch the good stuff we toss out now & then, lol.
      BTFD works until they don’t and the one getting BEARied is whom?
      BTC under $5,400 isn’t much of a dip. I’ll remind you though when they’re under $1,000…Want some pink tulips to go with them digitals? Patience…

      • I’m not one to think much about BTFD, since I’m seeking increased liquidity in my life. I do see a use for tulips though, since “businesses open to the public”, such as PayPal, refuse to honor those other businesses that they disagree with politically. Visa and MC are doing the same to a degree, though it seems that this is absolutely illegal. Bitchute was the most recent of the red flagged businesses. This is forcing use of crypto as a currency, even if it’s a questionable investment and highly volatile.

  12. After a week of the worst Hurricane anyone on my Destroyer had ever encountered, we pulled into Freemantle, Australia for some much needed R&R. It was complete with a tour of the Swan brewery in Perth. It was so nice to set foot on solid ground again. 65 foot swells are horrific. our sonar dome kept coming out of the water and were taking water over the stacks. Everyone was grateful to be alive and in such a fine and clean city. The only thing our cook could make was sloppy joes with crackers. When we left Perth they gave us enough rabbit to eat for months which we did. I had enough rabbit for a lifetime. Don’t eat the rabbit.

  13. Talk about a double standard. Today Ellen had Michelle Obama on her show for the full hour hawking Michelle’s new book.

  14. Regarding “sticking to the script”: It depends on the validity of the script and your ability to successfully ad lib. I’m very good at sticking to the script, and horrible at ad libbing. This works in the practical aspects of life, is a deal killer in the social aspects, and has variable results in the investment world.

    Slightly off topic: The supplements occasionally referred to here can be somewhat helpful in pushing the intellectual and visionary envelopes. Are there any (legal) ones that can push the other way – toward the animal/impulsive way of being? Perhaps Zeus knows of something, though I’ll pass on the dead mice.

    • This is year-old bullshit.
      Any port….err…excuse…in a storm to cover it up as a sham, huh?
      Bet on Nasa and NASA bets on colder not warmer.

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