If you think there’s a stock market pop in the works – and we’re coming up on the pre-holiday window leading to Turkey (and the Friday after, sometimes called “national call your broker day” – back when there were humans, not mice running the show) rallies are tempting when the news flow turns.  Retail it out and it’s up.

The problem is that since October 3, we have been in a down market.  October 3, for example, our Aggregate Index was 25,006 and change.  As of the Wednesday close it was down to 22,838.  Down more than 8-1/2 percent.  We worry there’s more downside to come.  The Stock Buy-back Bubble ending, perhaps?

Even though the futures showed +86 on the Dow when we looked earlier today, and with a sometimes buoyant holiday pending, we have found through very costly trading errors (in other words, losing $10-grand betting against the trend), that betting against the general market direction is a fools game..

Not that it hasn’t offered some “educational benefits” in personal trading style, but I’d have been money-ahead to read a half dozen books, lol.  Would have been a much cheaper education..

As always, this is NOT trading advice – your money is your own business.  We’re still mindful of the “major decline hot dates” we posted on October 26th which included the spectacularly good call for a decline starting November 9 – last Friday.  We made a bunch back on that call.

If I only had the discipline to follow my own work – rather than ad-libbing along the way – I’d be a richer man.  Had the same “ad-libbing” problem back in my radio days…  One of the hardest things to learn in life is “Sticking to the Script.”

And, when the script begins to look wrong, be willing to scamper back to cash before Mr. market administers a financial enema.

Now, having said that…still no slowdown in sight as….

Retail Sails

You can see it in the chart:

Drilling down we read:

“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $511.5 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above October 2017.

Total sales for the August 2018 through October 2018 period were up 5.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2018 to September 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Retail trade sales were up 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2018, and 4.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Gasoline Stations were up 16.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from October 2017, while Nonstore Retailers were also up 12.1 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year. “

The stock market?  Dow actually went negative after the number…so where’s the Turkey Rally?

Stay tuned….

A Note to Al Gore:

1. What is with all these ice storm warnings in the Southeast?  And 80-million in the path of a winter storm, already?

2.  Tell us again how people paid for a particular answer can pretend “objectivity”?

3.  Climate has been warming at a glacial pace since the Laurentide Ice Sheet began melting. Tell us how giving government more power and forking over more tax dollars changes that dynamic? Wasn’t NYC supposed to be underwater by now?

4,  Look up “Solar Minima and Maxima.”  No sunspots, no warming, isn’t it?

5.  Please schedule a climate talk in San Antonio which just hit the coldest date on record for 102 years…they can some hot air.

6. South of us, Houston’s earliest snowfall ever doesn’t exactly match the climate hype, either, does it?

Short answers only, since we can’t afford to pay-by-the-word like happens in, oh, politics or other vertical markets like fund-raising…

Ure’s truly… yada yada

OTOH: CalFires

56-dead so far and over 130 missing last time we checked. To be clear, It wasn’t the heat – it was the Santa Ana winds

Peloser?

Today’s “fake drama to drum up an audience” centers on the “Who Cares?” of House Speaker who will be the next Obstructionist in Chief Why, here’s a Yahoo/AP story on it.  Meantime, over on Politico we see Rep. Marcia Fudge being mentioned.  And CNN counts 17 democrats who are vowing to vote against her.

Here’s the thing:  It doesn’t matter who holds the gavel.  Politican vigilantism is coming to D.C.  You might as well put all that emotional energy (wasted on pseudo-news) into something useful.  A few extra miles on the treadmill, whether to have a croissant sandwich at lunch…you know things you can actuallty influence.  Otherwise, you’re a “Monetize Hype Enabler.”

The Peloser Meme is just that:  Emotional hot-buttoning to drive ad dollars.  because without emotionalism, people won’t be glued to [whatever] media and that’s hard on their revenue lines.

The WaPo Gets It Right

Because in a story about Hate and who should judge it, the Washington Post today subheads this:

Researchers at the Southern Poverty Law Center have set themselves up as the ultimate judges of hate in America. But are they judging fairly?”

The answer we think is an “Oh-Duh” but we’d remind you as we often do Everything’s a Business Model. 

Fortunately, here in the Outback, Zeus the Cat has agreed to Judge All Humans as Ultimate Supreme Arbiter of Reality.  Best of all, he’ll do it free.

“Hey, I’m a Cat, not a human – so I have no skin in the game like you bipeds. Mice – not money – for my kind.  Think about it! Only animals can Judge Humans fairly.  Get it right, Apeman.”

Alas…he may be onto something.

Woo-Woo: Perth/Fremantle?

There will be an upcoming weekend/Woo-Woo report over Thanksgiving where we’ll get into this more…BUT…

Had a hell of an “active” dream-space overnight with an adventure to Fremantle/Perth Australia.  Elements included a “Boeing office,” a college, hills, a fellow named Patrick who runs a string of rentals (AirBnB?) and so forth. No telling why the dream…just that it was very intense.

Equally curious, upon waking, I was able to watch my personal source code for a while. (First described back in 2015)

Curiously, not only did today’s “source code” reveal the usual runic symbology, but there were also charts…and they seemed to all show long-term downward trends.  Down on the right side.

Not sure what to make of it, but it was intense enough to mention and in light of coming “hot dates” for the market (we hit the 55-days from peak right after Thanksgiving) it’s worth mentioning.  Bet you can’t guess who will be watching headlines out of Australia over the next week, or so…

OK, waking-side reality has several projects on tap here, so off and running…‘moron the morrow…”

Fake Out Rally: We Warned You...
“News”– Its Revised Future