Fake Out Rally: We Warned You…

The Dow Jones Industrials rose some 208 points Thursday.  This morning, though, we look to give-back all but 3-bucks of that; if not all of it and then some.

So, the first thing out of the hopper today (and this is not financial advice) is that we did mention this in Thursdays column…so it isn’t like you couldn’t see it coming.

In the very-short term, we could see similar up and down action through Turkey Day, as pre-holiday rallies are relatively common.  But, after that?

55-days from an all-time-high (ATH) in our work arrives November 27- right after the holiday when everyone’s back to work (and drying out for the next holiday random-stop gaunlet).

Remember:  The time from the ATH in 1929 to the Black Monday was how many days?  55!  The only way to assure us that’s not possible in these “modern times” is if the markets manage to pull off a flippin’ miracle and trade at new all-time highs in the next  (counting today) seven trading days.  Sure, we’re optimists and all, but we ain’t damn crack-headed fools…that’s as poor a bet as you’ll find away from slot machines.

With a possible meeting between presidents Trump and Putin shortly thereafter, the futurescope looks a bit foggy.  Because there are a lot of other “moving pieces on the board” – any of which could take-down global markets in a flash collapse.  Need we remind you of these?

And – and God-forbid ALL of these – could torpedo consumer confidence.

Also of note:  Not to pull-hard on the change of the Digital Tulips Crowd, but the more than $800 drop in Bitcoin in the past week has us looking at two rather frightening notions.

One is that someone besides us has read that longish report from the Bank for International Settlements on the very limited future of Bitcoins and cryptos that we mentioned previously – got scared – and is bailing from the narrative.  By itself, no big deal, but like any other Ponzi scheme (which we hold cryptos to be) there must be “fresh meat” thrown in or the bubble collapses.  And when the digital tulip blight becomes obvious?

The other thing that may be going on?  Maybe one of the Big Banks that has been dabbling in the narrative sees something else – something REALLY BIG AND BAD coming – and they are tossing the digi-tulips in advance to “get liquid.”

Frankly, we don’t know which it is, but either possibility should scares the “new believers” who are buying similarly “made-up” products.

We warned you about fake-out rallies and suggested the BIS report from this past summer on cryptos – which simply validated a view held here from the beginning of the crypto-hype.

We hold to an extension of the late Martin Zweig’s “Never Fight the Fed…”.  The rewrite nowadays is “Never Fight Central Banks in general.”  Not that in the short-term folks like Ponzi and Madoff didn’t live large (as, indeed, some of the crypto kings are doing now…).  But, eventually, all flawed business models reveal themselves and not without some cost to society at large.

The March of Monetization

Trading markets, while fun, doesn’t solve the larger problems of the global economy just now.  We are again where we were in 1929 as you can see in our 2009-present comparison with 1929.  The black line is the track of the Dow (back when) and the red is our cobbled-up Aggregate…

Oh, I should mention that the Dow then and the Aggregate now represent almost the same total fraction of economic activity since things like the FAANGS matter now as we’ve gone down the Complexification highway…

The biggest problem we continue to worry about is “Consumer Super-Saturation” because the whole GLOBE has become far more services than goods-producing.  It’s from Econ 201:  The Shopkeeper Economy.  The phrase “nation of shopkeepers” dates to Napoleon.

To put it into modern parlance, when the baker bakes bread for the shoemaker, who makes shoes for the woodsman, and the woodsman sells firewood to the baker…you have a circle-jerk.

Not that static economies are bad…it’s just that they don’t grow – and if they aren’t growing, on what basis might prices move higher?  I mean besides hype and BS?  And buy-backs, lol.

With no global projects (save warming/climate change hype – and these don’t monetize well) what is to kep 7-billion all “playing nicely” with one-another?

Not to get into a much longer Peoplenomics length report on comparative unit sales volumes YoY, something more useful for the people in the loge seats, the question is “When does the music stop?”

That’s why seven trading days has our rapt attention.

Because so many of the headlines we’re reading are monetization efforts at their core.

Want some examples?  OK, then…

You see how all the daily “sick news” can be clearly understood once you grok Everything’s a Business Model?

God help us all.  We have no values left, only prices spreads left where morality once grew.

We are soooooooo screwed.

(Though it makes going short pretty easy, lol…)

Trends to Track

California judge orders next Monsanto weed-killer cancer trial for March.  Meantime, we’re wondering about all that GMO Round-Up ready seed that has seen how much dough poured-into?  Don’t look now, but this is the kind of sea state change that could drive famine.  Watch this one closely…

Buying oil at coming lows might make sense to some commodity traders: Oil heads for week of losses despite talk of supply cut.  thing is, if climate is flipping into cold, then more energy, not less will be needed and prices could soar, as we figure it.

Nuclear lies revealed: French Polynesian president acknowledges nuclear test lies/  But then everyone else lied, so no harm, right?

Fed’s Industrial Production and Utilization report due out shortly…click over here for it.  Futures still down around 2-bills worth…as we said, fake-out rallies, eh?

Take a Shower Tonight

Why?  (here comes a poor attempt at Friday humor…)

How to watch Leonid meteor shower this weekend.

OK, moron the morrow...and don’t forget to come back Monday, too.


11 thoughts on “Fake Out Rally: We Warned You…”

  1. You seem to be interested in dream work. Found Third Eye Chakra Tea and had a cup last evening. I havent been having recallable dreams or lucid dreams either. Last nite had a very vivid dream and also a very separate lucid dream. This moorning googled Third Eye Chakra Tea and this seems to be an effect of several of their commenters. Just had a cup this am and want to see what happens in the waking state today.

    • Interesting, wonder whats in it?

      Recently i dropped 2 hits of 4 way windowpane (LSD) for the first time in 24 years.

      A friend found 10 hits in his storage unit while getting some stuff out that was in there fot the last 15 + years (he thinks)

      Had a helluva good vision quest! LOL!

      BUT it will probably be another 24 years before i do that again. Ha ha ha

      I forgot how much that stuff makes ya think too much!

      Did have a spirit/shaman looking indian fella walk through my living room beating a drum with what looked like a chicke leg bone. And all of us who were frying saw him. Kinda like a person but a vapor at the same time. Everyone stopped talking (there eas 4 of us) and ine person said, whooooo who invited the indian shaman with the drum? And we all said I see him! I see him too! Pretty trippy.

  2. “No one in the UK seems willing to hear the Will of the People.”

    First off.. Similar to our Congress actually doing some work that the people want done….THEY CAN’T….. It would slow down or alter the plans of the puppeteers that truly control the world..start wars alter landscapes decide who lives and who dies who gets help, education, support and who doesn’t..

    Consumer confidence…
    OK..HAS ANYONE NOTICED.. The drama between brick and mortar and online sales.. The changes in retail.. I walk in there’s one checkout up and running twenty self serve..one department store tried the scan and pay.. It was working great until inventory lol seems people would walk in scan and go but wasn’t actually paying for what they took..no one on the floor..I was having to search the back room for employees..
    Where am I going with this..we all see it.. Ok automation..want two dozen eggs a gallon of milk. Toilet paper loaf of bread. Pay run in pick it up and leave.
    When as one of my hats worked retail..we had sale items and loss leaders..the things advertised to get people in the door and the staged items to get you down the isle..you pick up what your buying and stuff the cart with other things noticed..its why isles are flipped and endcaps changed.keep thecustomerfrom just walking in picking up what they want and leaving..
    So how will the online shopper affect sales if it stops the consumer from wandering the isles and impulse shopping.
    Could this flip sales and stall sales.

  3. Ahhh, disparaging Bitcoin again due to big price moves. For those with eyes, but cant see and or those with ears, but cant hear – Bitcoins are the solution to central banks and the BIS..see Scarcity as value driver.
    Nuff said, I will post a “air trade”, track the performance monthly right here.

    Gold = $1220, Oil = $57.72, USD Index = 96.55, 10yrYld = 3.09%, BTC = $5533
    as of 11:00 AM on 11-16-2018

    The wager is in one years time BTC will outperform all the others listed above on 11-16-2019. there are no stakes..air bet.

    George – how come no info RF energy frequencies that PSE&G were beaming down to collector in Mojave..that was moved to Campfire fire area. There have have been several super hot – burn white fires in area since collector was moved several years ago. The other loose end on this story is the chairman at PSE&G, seems that cat is on the board of some Rothchild business concern/institution. Are not RF frequencies in your wheel G?

  4. Hit the tube this morning around 0430. Bloomburglar had a panel up, discussing the ins and outs, and associated issues, should

    the Bank of England go to negative interest.

    Whaddya think George, is a BoE tulip-toss and reverse-rental a big enough event to shake the tree…?

  5. George you know back in that day when there was those tulips that people bought and sold there was a lot of people that made a lot of money and yep you’re going to do the same thing next year too you’ll fall right on in there in the trenches and go like yeah I see that a lot of people made some money and this may happen for a few more years and you’re going to take advantage of it, you’re no fool.
    Rollin with the flow does make one richer but knowing when to get out of the flow makes one even richer than richer…lol.

    As you will see as you will read more and more Bankers are going over to kryptos you see the old Rothschild regiment Morgan Bank in regiments all of those are failing there’s no way out and this is the only way that they can leave with some dignity but most of them won’t feel just died cuz they’re getting so old but their kids and grandkids they’re going to be the ones who are the wingmakers of the kryptos and you’re going to follow into because you are no fool when someone starts flashing money in your face you’re going to take it without disgrace because you know in the end it’s got to go to someone and it could be one of your kin.

    No don’t buy that crypto it’s bad the future of that article says it’s terrible but see that article was not written for the future it was written for the past it was written by someone who does not like the new stuff coming in I mean they’re on their deathbed probably wouldn’t you say because they don’t like change change is what makes things move forward that’s who we are you know with a horse and buggy and a plow now we have the ability to not even use plows but just grow everything Underground or on ground undercover and in manners that would make the ancient farmers cream their pants.

  6. And second tulips are you going to give someone some let’s say you have a relative that lives in another country by the time that tulip gets there it’s probably dead huh well cryptos don’t work that way mr. George I sent money across the United States and it took less than 3 seconds and it cost less than a part of a penny and I help someone and I didn’t have to go through all those bad bad surcharges establishment if they need some money it can be transferred instantly not in days that’s what the to transfer money ,let’s say you’re on your Deathbed hypothetically and you have millions of dollars in a crypto wallet and your son has a crypto wallet to in his possession and at the last moment at the last breath you send him your millions of dollars this is one of the advantages of Crypt over currency not tulips Dear Sir George cryptocurrencies is here to stay all the old Banker Federal Reserve Central bankers local bankers are going out of business and they’re going to have to reconstruct their business to fit the cryptocurrency future people who believed in the fiat currency are dying they’re going out all the new babies that are coming in won’t know what a dollar is.
    I have a newborn grandchild coming into the world in the next few days this child will probably never see a dollar but instead everything will be transmitted through cryptocurrencies and of course the exchange of physical items which is called bartering.
    Like they say lead or get out of the way.


  7. You say if we have a grid down situation there won’t be no cryptos wrong and every city someone has got solar panels someone has the ability to charge a cell phone in the cell phones the new ones that we have have the ability to communicate with each other without the cell network without the cell tower Network so now we have the ability 2 Exchange money on our wallets and then when we hit a big Central node through the direct contact or through the multiple Integrations of contact let’s say that there’s a unit that works that’s up to date and it’s a thousand miles away and then we have people that are traveling or connecting with each other and as they do each cell phone brings in the new information and updates even without cell towers.
    It’s a crude and can be deceptive way of trading money at that particular time but it does work.
    Imagine the worst that could happen and it will not happen because of the backup plans that we have our government or corporations or individuals and people like you backup systems . And .
    people like me who have the ideas how to use those backup systems.

    So would I hire the guy who works hard 8 to 4 or would I hire the guy that lays in bed and comes up with ideas or would I hire a third party that has the ability to do both.
    I would hire all three of them because when you add them all together it means straightforward success

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