Things are about to get interesting.
The way it becomes interesting is running (like an old TSR program) is in background. The news events we see swirling about this morning may be interesting, but the REAL IMPORTANT decisions about how things are going to work out are off running out of sight.
What is so important? Glad you asked.
This is a little corner of one of our Peoplenomics.com charts but I want to show you the problem.
As you can see in the chart below, the market has done a peachy-keen rally since we turned up as I was expecting in February. And if you’re a fan of Elliott Waves, the general idea is that we should work our way up into a “target zone” and this would (more or less) confirm that wave V – the one that brings new all-time highs and lots of money flowing into the market – is underway.
Now, the PROBLEM with this chart is that we are due for some kind of decline in here. And it could knock the S&P down a bit.
But then comes the question: “Will it stop at a “normal” kind of pull-back, or will be put in another low around where February did, OR will it break on down and in that case, 1.740 on the S&P could be tested.
Oh. And if THAT fails, then we are in a HUGE MOTHER OF A RECESSION OR DEPRESSION.
(Yes, this is what Donald Trump was likely referring to, but the damn MainStream Sell-Out Media is so busy trying to “influence” the political realm, that they forget that Trump is a Wharton grad with what? A degree in economics!
Do we heard questions like “What is it that you see ahead that implies a massive recession?”
We STILL haven’t got a good bead on that because the GD effin media is too damn busy trying to influence instead of (wait for it) REPORT!!!
OK, fine. The MS(fu)M is not doing it’s job. That’s fine with me because it leaves a nice niche of intelligent people who really do want to get ahead of the curve, so here we are.
Now, back to point: This is the HUGE story that is going on in background. The markets will, in coming weeks, put up a massive rally continuation up to my target zone, or they will drop to the normal pullback level of a strong rally (often around 50% of the advance) and go up from there.
In this sense, the market is like craps except we have “two ways to make the five” – there’s no easy way, lol.
OR the market pullback will go further until we hit the last-chance to avoid Depression around 1,740 on the S&P.
If THAT fails, then the very bad news (which I believe Trump was getting at) is IF we break below the 1,740 S&P level, then dropping down to the lows of 2009 become something like a 50% possibility.
And there’d also be a chance that we could drop down into the Dow 3,500 area.
Think about that for a sec. Dow 3,500 and lower than 2009 by a good bit.
There is always good news – and I try to remain balanced in my outlooks. If we drop down that low, we should set up for a hell of a rally.
In long wave economics, using Elliott tools, we would then see a rally to around 10,250 or so, and then the other shoe drops. The market could drop down to, oh, pick a number here: 750 on the Dow.
This is not to PREDICT this will happen. The market future is always changing. It’s like a snake that comes to a four-way fork in the road – which is where we are this morning.
To summarize, hand me my snake, wouldja?
What the Doof Media misses, more often than not, is this is the way our future is always unfolding: As a set of options (forks in the road) that will be influenced by current events.
Much as it saddens me to do so, we do have to look at some of the drivers there.
Panama Papers: Leak-Out Causes Freak-Out
A few headlines will capture the fine essence d’ turd coming out about many of the world’s leaders who are (no surprise) largely rich, mainly corrupt, and keeping money stashed outside of their own countries so it can’t be taken from them when the hangman comes a-calling.
The basic story is: 2.6TB Data Leak Reveals Corruption Among World Leaders
And try not to look too surprised when you learn that Global elite’s offshore accounts are revealed in 11.5 million leaked documents.
Bait and Switch!
What’s the global elite to do when the peasants of the (potentially larger than) French Revolution get to milling about in an angry and snarling way?
Get out there and stir things up a bit, of course!
Let’s cue, oh, Christine Legarde who’s the head of the International Monetary Fund to say something like “Lagarde Sees Political Dangers Galore With Global Economy Tepid.”
What she is NOT saying are the two most relevant facts about this mess.
1. The world’s problems would be a lot smaller IF there was a ban on people banking at these offshore banks with their secrets. This from a guy who lived in the Cayman Islands for a couple of years. Moi. I simply saw too much corruption there and met some of the sleaze that were refinancing and bankrupting American real estate assets and then taking the money offshore.
We tend to forget recent economic events. But this was commonplace during the 1980’s S&L disaster. But if you were to tell this kind of “businessman” that they were nothing more than crooks, stealing from the public, they would argue that it was only a coincidence that they just refinanced a massive apartment complex, pulled out $5-million and took it offshore and then the complex went banko. Stuff happens, they argue.
Yeah…when the building is refi’ed for more than it’s worth and the money is gone…you betcha.
You see, that’s the kind of shit that happens all over the world now. Crooks take money which would have to be disclosed and which would be subject to recourse if it were domiciled in a bank within their country or origin…but which becomes untouchable money when it goes offshore.
(Do I sound rather disgusted with the kinda pricks who take the money and flee? Why ‘magine that!)
2. There is NO JUSTIFICATION other than fraud, tax avoidance, and so on, that I’ve ever heard for the existence of offshore banks.
Secrecy in offshore banking is a scam to hide money from tax authorities, plain and simple.
And setting up front companies in tax havens is the same thing: A tax avoiding scam.
I figure you’ve thought this out, and yeah, yeah, I hear all the time from tax scammers how it is a “right” under the Constitution and yada, yada. But in the end, the people who have offshore accounts are (with no exceptions I ever met) trying to be two-bit chiselers who want to stick you with the dinner tab because you’re dumb enough to be honest and keep your money home.
So is Christine Legarde of the IMF pure as the driven snow? Ha!!
Go read IMF head Lagarde to face French trial over Tapie affair and decide for yourself. When in trouble, make yourself indispensible and unimpeachable, says I. Argghhh.
Cutting to the Chase
JP Morgan Chase has set up a limit on how much cash non-bank customers can take from their ATMs. They’ve been rolling from the $20-bill dispensers to the $100-bill size and people like BIG money better than SMALL money, seems.
So they line up to get Big Money. D’uh.
Already, there are people using the term “bank run” (keep this Google news search handy) but is it the end of the world?
Besides, in Ure’s alternate reality is that if there ever ARE bank runs, the place to go would not be to the bank, but to the grocery store and load up on long-term food items to top off your prepper plans.
Paper doesn’t taste very good and when comes down to really awful times, ask yourself this: Would I trade food for paper? And if yes, under any conditions?
This next item is more for Peoplenomics.com readers. Remember I said a while back that I could see where we might actually see a decrease in the BOT (balance of trade) deficit?
Well, it is not here yet…
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $47.1 billion in February, up $1.2 billion from $45.9 billion in January, revised. February exports were $178.1 billion, $1.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $225.1 billion, $3.0 billion more than January imports.
The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $64.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $17.7 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $10.8 billion, or 13.1 percent, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $20.5 billion or 5.5 percent. Imports decreased $9.7 billion or 2.1 percent.
Here’s what the long-term trend looks like…
I’m still hopeful, based on economic activity that things will improve, but hasn’t happened yes, at least so’s you’d notice. Obama and the PTB are still shoveling up deeper into the dung.
Yessir…all that TPP hype (including from sellout Paul Ryan) is just what? (Take a whiff…)
A kind of coincident indicator just out: The Gallup Economic Confidence Indicator improved a bit to a –10 reading for the past month.
Futures show the Dow should open down about 100 and a close down 150 would be about right.
Flight to safety of gold is getting legs again: Up $21 when I looked and Bitcoins are still fetching $422 per.