T-Day Countdown: Job Data and Philly Fed

Unemployment Filings Jump

Hot off the screen snagger:

“The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 743,460 in the week ending November 14, an increase of 18,344 (or 2.5 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 13,302 (or -1.8 percent) from the previous week. There were 227,892 initial claims in the comparable week in 2019. In addition, for the week ending November 14, 52 states reported 320,237 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.2 percent during the week ending November 7, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week.

Meantime, the Philly Fed report is also just out:

“Current Indicators Reflect Continued Recovery

The diffusion index for current activity decreased 6 points to 26.3 in November, its sixth consecutive positive reading after reaching long-term lows in April and May (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases this month (42 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (15 percent). The index for new orders decreased 5 points to a reading of 37.9. Nearly 49 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders this month, compared with 55 percent last month. The current shipments index fell 22 points to 24.9 in November. Nearly 41 percent of the firms reported higher shipments, compared with 57 percent last month.”

Source: Philly Fed news release

Like the silicon voice says on the phone:  “Please make a note of it!”  No Joe, recovering economy.  Now, drop by this coming spring…

Surprised Or Innumerate?

Hand-wringing continues by whiners  all worked up over Covid-19 and are buying into Hysteria 2.0.  Yet, it’s time to grade expectation management based on what we knew 45-days ago.  (Yes, this is a statistics class.)

In early October we projected ahead as follows:

Let’s see how this is working out, shall we?  (Hint: Spot on)

As of this morning  Global Cases was 56.358-million.  We’re on track there.

Global death today is 1,351,381…so that’s looking pretty close, too.

Cases today?  11.53-million, so we need 788,000 new cases – and by the roll of headlines that one will be close, more’n likely, too.

U.S. deaths this morning are 250,548.  We can project the death toll actually coming in a bit under 45-day old forecast levels. But we’ll see…

Still, not a bad math exercise, though pardon the grim subject matter.

Point is to use this whole situation as a “learning lab.”  In other words, we knew a month and a half back that this was coming.  My  Consigliere, who we love to have visit for Thanksgiving, saw exactly this same stats picture.  We made the “scrub the turkey visit” way about Oct. 1.  Data rules all but fools.

Swimming In Vaccines

OK, with the Moderna news this week, here comes another vax as Phase 2 results of Oxford, AstraZeneca vaccine trial show promising results.  Pretty soon (like toothpaste) we will be swimming in consumer choices.

Oh shit – Trump was right (“any day now”) and no sign of Joe being involved.  (Audience gasps…).  Days after the election?  All smells to high heaven.

Even further along strange: Suit claims Tyson managers bet money on employees getting COVID-19.  But, where’s the causation needed to win?  Gambling on the Sun coming up, for example, doesn’t change what happens at dawn, know what I mean?  Jury?  Emotions?  Ah….sales then?

Interesting human progress note comes to mind:  Remember when the shape of an ambulance and a hearse were roughly the same?  (You may not be that old now, but the box-truck config of medic units today visually differentiates and it strikes me as a “progress of humans” marker we oldsters have seen…)

Just have your votes counted in Spain and STFU.

A Lesson in Handling Panic

There are plenty lessons here, but let me toss two out because they really  are important.

  • People react to news in stupid ways.  The virus is just one.  Folks seem (and this is odd – worthy of deep study) to be anxious to show “opposition” to Reality.  In Texas, no masks by “patriots.”  On a different day, in the wake of George Floyd’s killing, people burned down their own ‘hood.  You seeing the odd behavior pattern, yet?
  • What they is the right “Personal Process Plan” to cope with things that outrage, offend, and piss you off to the point where you’re just  busting to ACT?

Just like we can write a “redirect handler” in code, we can write our own “Personal news Handler” code.  Ours goes something like this:

  • D   Define the playing field.  How big is the story?  Does it impact you personally?  Does is threaten to impact people we love?
  • A  Analyze to project a bit: Might the story have local repercussions?  In your city, on your work site?  In  your church or social group?
  • Project – what’s the  worst case and what’s the  best case and – between these extremes, what’s the middle path which has the highest payoff?  It will always be “off-center.”  Because there is no such thing as 10% dead, for example.
  • R  Respond.  We began our response in January.  Cloroxing everything coming in.  And even today, we are still handling things the same.  We’d already stopped going into “stores” back in November of last year…a spidey-sense thing that we would need to be “in-person-free” – funny how life leads a safer path if you let it…

Ain’t that hard to do.  Any time Shock” and “Awe” come along, DAPR is the answer.

Stupid is the worst co-morbidity of all.  If CV-19 is still catching you unawares with headlines, you might want to tune-up your attention skills and turn down the voice in your head.  A few STFU’s in that direction can save your life.

Flushed Newsage

With sorting labels to make this easy:

Biden Screw-ups to Expect File: Israeli settlers in the West Bank confront the Biden reality.  Since Trump has made progress, we have no doubts Joe will botch it and listen to the Neocons who’ve survived in Foggy Bottom.

Polish the Resume file.  If you work for a small company with falling sales on CV-19.  “The week in bankruptcies: Factory Sports Training dba USA Fitness.”

File under Wildfires: 2021:  ‘World’s largest helitanker’ demonstrates firefighting water drops in California.  Could have used it on the Lion’s Gate and Beachie fires in Oregon this fall.  Not sure about it’s altitude for fires like East Troublesome, which smolders on.

Climate Change file:   Think about this for a sec – Oil prices slip as new wave of COVID-19 cases weigh on outlook.  OK, if oil consumption goes down that fights climate change (ne warming), right?

Told You So File  at the NY Times still brimming: States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks.  Thankfully, we have a governor in Texas who has managed rationally.  Hasn’t sent CV-sick to nursing homes like Cuomo…which the lefterlies of NYC wanna bury to ensure re-election….

Dow futures down 77 S&P down 10 as the market loafs along on air.  Money stocks report tomorrow morning will be fun.  We will see how much “electioneering” was done…

Looking Ahead

Quick lesson in soldering Sunday in our “making section.”  On the Ultra-Make site, we have a discussion of beds and bedding materials (for printers, not the duvet, silly!).

And on Peoplenomics, some real breakthrough stuff on making Crypto’s more real.  Lisa Lyon called from Coast to Coast AM with George Noory last night.  So guess I will be on Coast Wednesday night (turkey squared (or cubed), is it?) to talk about how 3D printing is about to radically change the world.  Economic disrupters ahead.

For this morning?  Back to pondering the important:  Will there be a second season of Alex Rider?  Will Andy ever get a new post up on his https://doorfore.com site?  Will Israel attack Iran over Thanksgiving?  Will Santa bring us a pallet of $100’s?

Write when you get rich (or give Santa directions to our place),


40 thoughts on “T-Day Countdown: Job Data and Philly Fed”

  1. “Will Santa bring us a pallet of $100’s ?

    Maybe not this year George but if you drop Joe a note and move to Iran, there is a good chance for several pallets at Christmas 2021.

    • “Will Santa bring us a pallet of $100’s ?,”

      Give it a couple months Bic..and you can use those couple of pallets of 100’s to buy a big mac at Micky D’s

      • “Or, I can use a couple of pallets of Micky D’s to buy a Litecoin”

        Then again George… if it all crumbles.. you can eat a big mack cartoon coins are still just that..

  2. George, you can see the difference on Andy’s site (Doorfore) when someone who knows what he is doing gets involved. I see the Go Fund Me link is gone. Asking for $10,000 is small change. Go Fund Me goal should at least be $250,000 to sound legit & should explain the benefits of giving… $$$ wise. Ie, future video productions on how to start a commune, etc. Major Ed Dames made a fortune with Remote Viewing Videos. It did help to be on the Art Bell Show. Andy should consider George Noory when he has a product to sell. I hope you are in for a percentage…at least 50% initially & then declining over time.

    • Hey, well $250k would be great. I never have asked for money before. So I’m not very good at it. I have always worked to get it. Never really asked anyone for help. I think George reach through the screen and strangle me when I wasn’t understanding that he wanted to help me. I’m just not used to that. It so foreign that anyone wants to help me. Kinda sad a little. I guess that is just how it is.

      I been living on my own since I was 16. I learned along time ago. Nobody really cares. Lol. 99% just think about themselves. If you want it you have to go get it or figure it out on your own. Lol. I had a friend give me some fancy suits and clothes and stuff down when I was down I the desert. It was so foreign for anyone to do that I thought he maybe was trying be weird.

      That was the first time anyone gave me anything in so long I couldnt remember. I didn’t get anything for Christmas or my birthday From anyone in the last 4 years. Lol. My ex girlfriend forgot to give me a Christmas present last year. And I spent $1200 on her. Just how it is.

      My point is,

      I just figured $10k would help me alot. Get tires on my car, they litterally have the belts about to pop out. catch up on a few bills, get some video equipment and audio equipment. I spent my whole stash to go make sure my mom was ready for the winter and to get her some wood her house winterized after her stroke etc etc.

      I’m on unemployment. So I’m a broke ass mf. I litterally has $12 to my name when I started my site. Hahahaa.

      Anyway. Hope to just set up a PayPal address. I’m gonna stop giving away free reports when it comes to the future. I will do quarterly with some long term stuff. Charge a fee for them.

      Ohhhhhhh ohhhh Mark bought me a cup of coffee at the Paper Moon in silicon valley last summer. That was the last time anyone gave me anything to be nice and didn’t expect anything in return. Thanks Mark! I appreciate that.

      Get some adds up and get the pod cast going and start doing shows with guests. For now I’m just learning the way things work on the new system. I’m
      It just gonna take some consistency and a little bit to get used to it.

      I certainly couldnt have done it without George. Can’t thank him enough. Now it’s time to get busy writing etc. Etc.

      New one is up. Have a great day. I been up all night tinkering with the new site.

    • I mean dude. I bought myself a $5.00 coffee cup from Walmart for my 49th birthday. The only birthday present I got. And someone stole it 3 weeks later. A shitty little coffee cup. My shitty little coffee cup. Really??! Someone visiting from Jersey where I was staying liked it and took it with them back to Jersey and didn’t ask. Like what the F?! ROTFLMAO!

      If you seen my picture, the where I’m not wearing a shirt and I’m holding the cup with poop emoji on it. That was the cup I bought myself. Now all I have is a picture of it. Hahahahahahhahah. I’m just like wow. This my life. Hahaha.

      So, I’m gonna try something different and be someone important I guess. This chick gave a computer tower to help me so I wasn’t doing it all on my phone THEN expected me to sleep with her after.

      Dude, I’m just out here selling my ass to be a rising star on the interwebs. Hahahahaha! Fack! I didn’t sleep with her. It’s just so rediculous.

      I can hear my mom in the background, “This is why we can’t have anything nice.” FMTT!


      I need to get some sleep for a couple hours. Have a good day. All is well. Life is good and we are right on schedule.

      • ” I bought myself a $5.00 coffee cup from Walmart for my 49th birthday. The only birthday present I got. And someone stole it 3 weeks later. ”

        Dam Andy.. do what i do. Carry your coffee with the lid off as you walk into the bank… make sure you have a dull brainless look and trust me people will drop change in that cup of coffee.. lol
        There use to be a guy outside the Riggs national bank .. he got change all the time ..when he passed on there was a huge story in the paper he was the CEO of a big company and worth millions..lol lol

  3. Holy Scheisse Gman!

    Ure a statistical genius – oh my, nailed the fatality “numbers game”. Congratulations.

    If in U really wanted to show Ure statistical chops, not BS, Ure would have Predicted the Number of Fatalities in 2020 Due to: Flu = 0, Seasonal Cold/rhinovirus =0, Tuberculous = 0

    Really WHO could have seen that coming?

    What is Ethiopia, What is a Communist, What is a Muzzie, Who is close associate of bill&melinda gates, WHO received VAST quantities of Yuan/renminbi funding while govt official in Ethiopia, What is a Tigray Rebel – think Hezzbollah.
    Check out FB history of one Tedros Adhanom Ghereyesus for pics of all the above info.
    We have the paper trail of US documents Proving USAID & b&M gates fdn funded the Gain of Function studies at UNC -chapel hill ..shhhhhhh, in 2007 they inserted HIV and AIDS into SARS infected bats.
    = Vit C efficacy in combating SARS at the insert point..

    Atty Robert Kennedy – “pandemic planned for years by bill gates & anthony fauci”

    Who is avrille ames, who predicted pandemic in 2018,who was protagonist in the event 201 exercise, who was appointed obummas deputy director -Clowns InAction by virtue of her long collaborations w/creeepy slo bribem and dims in field of bio weapons, who is baaaaack on bribems intel team?

    There is NO HARMONY in any of this virus/election bullshit – NONE! and that is why all this BS hurtz mi head.

    That is a terrible problem for HUmans – Harmonics – Ure getting very warm..maybe peruse a copy of Huntleys,, Harmonics of Evolution and or Cathies – Harmonic 33

    Its one big sweet harmony..https://youtu.be/GdA45pfLfF0

    ..litecoin the right coin
    for transactions after fall

    Get some soonly..

  4. Does October 1929 = DOW 30,000. Not far away if so. Or will the COVID Vaccine cure all. If the vaccine works will the Fed keep pumping money into the markets or slow down? As long as the Fed pumps money into the markets, this rally won’t quit. Money is like gasoline to the stock market. Another stimulus package would be good for the Markets & the sky’s the limit. Tesla stock soon to be part of the S&P 500. Does any of the manufactured wealth DRIP down to the poor? Yes, Mark hired an illegal Immigrant to take care of his landscaping.

  5. George, couple a questions:
    Total CO-19 cases, is this from the beginning of this “epidemic”, can we trust the people who count?
    Is there a count of active cases? I would suspect that it is about 5% of the total cases
    Is there a count of cured cases?
    I do realize that the death rate is mostly co-morbidity, is there an actual death rate of CO-19 cases with out any other ailments or diseases?
    Seems to me that this CO-19 is targeted at us oldsters, primarily to get rid of us and the financial burden on society

    Thanks George, continue the good work!

  6. “to the point where you’re just busting to ACT”

    History shows at the end of the day all there is violence. One is either inflicting violence or fearing violence. It’s pretty much zero-sum.

  7. Hi George, as a follower of natural health for over 15 years, my understanding of this covid hysteria is that it is nothing more than a “casedemic.” The creator of the PCR Test, Kary Mullis, says this is not a diagnostic tool. There are no standards for how its used so it is showing mostly false positives. A good summary article is here below from Dr. Mercola. Him and Dell BigTree over at thehighwire.com do an excellent job of digging deep into the data. I have been following Dr. Mercola for over a decade and has never steered me wrong. I can count on my one hand how often i’ve been sick in those 15 years based on the advice from him and many more like him. I haven’t seen a medical doc since College and feel the same as I did than. At your age, being conservative is understandable, but the data for most of us just doesn’t indicate that this is anything but bs. I won’t opine on why the powers-that-be are pushing this, but it isn’t for our health.


  8. My first printer was a smallish thermal printer. it worked with rolls of thermally sensitive paper. Slow and ugly, the printout faded with time and temperature — and not very much of either.

    My second printer was a tractor-feed (little holes in tear-off strips on the side edges of the paper) and the head was a tiny array of pins, smashing a black “inked” strip against the roller. Noisy as hell.

    My third printer was an IBM Selectric office-style typewriter – the one that used the type “balls.” Slow, but looked good. Typescript only — no graphics. Very slow, but looked good for correspondence.

    My fourth printer (yes, I’m going somewhere with this) was an H-P laser B&W “Xerox-like” workhorse. Used dry powdered carbon in a cartridge. An expensive cartridge.

    My fifth printer was a wet-ink type — I forget now which, but it did some ugly third-rate color and graphics also.

    My sixth printer was a better ink-type — I forget by who — it did a useful, not-too-ugly job. The ink was “special,” and the maker installed Secret Code Rat Chipz in the ink carts that made it not work with third party — and much cheaper — ink. I hated the tyranny of this. There was a hack around to fool the thing and use the cheap ink.

    My current printer is a cheap Brother 5330, and uses three color and one fatter black ink cheap carts. It’s not great, but it’s useful for my simple-minded needs.

    The point?

    Look how far it’s come.

    3D printing is in its infancy, but ultimately it will be like a “replicator” in Star Trek. Food, clothing, parts — not only of plastic, but also of strong metal and currently only imagined composites and plastics. In short; anything. Ultimately, no limits. And nothing second-rate, and some things impossible to make any other way.

    I don’t know exactly how, but I plan to board this train before long.

  9. OTFLMAO. Not even in office and critical steps are being taken..



    I thought someone mentioned that they were planning on eliminating these things and having th er m pay taxes. Lol just dumping a little more water on the table..
    Where I got a chuckle was I had someone tell me that they needed a certificate for CPR.. ok in my life I’ve taken the classes maybe fifty times.. I’ve only had to perform cpr maybe a dozen times..
    All the hospitals and medical facilities have stopped training classes.. for those that havehad the classes previously they are just signing the paper.. you can pay a company to sign the paper..
    I ws not do that. If they want it they can pay for it.
    Even though their own education department has stopped all in staff education..lol lol

    • Had a chat with my doc today who is usually accurate in his prognostications. He says the big challenge now will be to get people to take the Covid-19 vaccine. He’s pretty bought into the virus PR; blames Trump and otherwise hates him. It’s not worthy to try and convince him otherwise, but it is interesting to hear the other side’s POV in a non-confrontational setting.
      Bottom line: There really are smart people out there who’ve bought into the MSM’s bullshit!

      • “He’s pretty bought into the virus PR”

        I am to.. but then I know people that died from it. And people that work with people that have it.

  10. Oh no Mr George –

    Another real “expert” – this time Canadas’ own Dr Rodger Hodkinson -Top Pathologist – covert19 “greatest hoax ever perpatrated..”

    Like one of Ure readers quiped “I’m sure pigs and birds have more intelligence than you..”
    But I digress – it has come to the coots attention that Everyone IS Hoarding US Coins – including the the US Mints, their vaults are full- “distro issue”insider source/ SF mint employee.
    Coinstar is said to have an even greater Inventory than US Mints – So what gives KemSabe?

    What is CUPRO = +92% Copper, 8% Nickel, – roughly current Metal composition of US Coins/ Dimes, Quarters and 1/2’s – With Jefferson Nickels having the Highest Value/Nickel content at 25%.

    Keep in the back of Ure Mind – US Federal Reserve Notes ARE NOT US MONEY – Only US COINS – its Constitutional ! Nah they would never blow up the whole shooting match – jubilee smuubilee.

    *obviously there is no room left in the back of some jabroni, lefty markzist minds..

    • About 3 or 4 years ago I started hoarding US Silver coins 1964 & earlier in anticipation of COVID. I bought junk US silver coins 1964 or earlier with only a silver value on ebay. I averaged about $17 an ounce cost. I anticipate a silver price of $100 per ounce in the near future. It is good to hear only coins are the only Constitutional money, it is soothing. If it gets to $100, I will sell them probably on ebay, or at the local pawn shop if our country turns communist.

    • “Everyone IS Hoarding US Coins – including the the US Mints, their vaults are full-”

      I think the only reason people are saving them is because the way the mint is excess printing a quarter will very soon have more value as the metal than the coins face value.

    • I have taken that as well as oil of oregano…they kill viruses without any side effects. Using a nebulizer with hydrogen peroxide will
      quickly kill corona type viruses and strengthen the lungs.

  11. china is blaming Australia for lies about trade dispute . good on them . probably true , we have become so American so liars . our pollies and authority even mainstream is bullsheet heaven . no patriotism here , that’s the last bastion of tyranny for veges

  12. and further on the death spiral of planet looney tunes nonsense economy . a heap of Chinese bonds went poof the last couple of days. like America penny in the buck . this time it was grain of rice in the yuan. here in oz we just lie about everything , we are the best in the world for lies and vege growing .

  13. Comrades,

    My understanding is that the rollout of Apple’s new Chinese-manufactured phone is underway. For the first time, beidou, China’s step up from America’s GPS, is being installed as standard on the new phones destined for the domestic Chinese market. Perhaps someone can advise if beidou is being offered optionally or installed regardless everywhere else.

    Apparently in a “skynet” moment, beidou went fully operational at the beginning of August. According to Wikipedia, it claims to offer free 10 meter resolution, or 2 meter resolution with a subscription (!), and 10 centimeter resolution to the militaries of China and Pakistan. Additionally it offers two-way 120 character messaging encrypted between users, but accessible to the Chinese state.

    Philatelists soon could be looking forward to the issue of Chinese provisional first day stamped covers from the occupied Australian Antarctic Territory. With the thawing of USA Operation Deep Freeze, its naval legion but not China’s in home port due to a pandemic, one may agree the Western Empire is again fraying into fractious city-states. Rome is in peril? Press “enter” for shofar with fiddle accompaniment? Be advised that Tristan da Cunha is closed for entry until further notice.

    Hot off the press per the CBC regarding only essential items can be purchased commencing Saturday: “…items deemed essential under the new (public health) orders include food, personal care and health products, baby and child-care items.

    Liquor and cannabis sales will also be permitted.”

    So there you have it; raise a glass and please roll with the choir as they light up a rousing rendition of Dylan’s “Rainy Day Women #12 and 35”.

  14. For a long part of our history we celebrated people with an independent spirit. So people that don’t want to wear a mask, want to live their lives differently then others. Some of us may not believe it is in their own best interest, but so what, it is their lives and people they interact with that will be impacted. People have always had their right as free individuals to make “bad” decisions. I don’t care if they smoke, eat bad, never exercise or participate in high adrenaline activities. As long as they don’t expect someone else to take care of them, live your life. Government should not create laws to limit peoples freedoms. I can avoid people that are not masked up in public, I can avoid shopping in areas I don’t consider safe. Businesses can set their own safety regimens. Why is it today, if we don’t act, and think like some want, people want to laws to force them to change.

    And as far as you cancelling your Thanksgiving. That is a tough call. One part of being human is togetherness, celebrating our victories and commiserating in our defeats. You are older then I, but how many more of those will you have the opportunity to experience with your long time acquaintances. For some of my family, they are older, and they are most at risk and they are asking us to come, they don’t want to miss hugging their great granddaughter, listening to her babble on with her innocent questions. It is a tough call for me, but at some point it becomes less like a life and more like a prison. Many older people have the same attitude, they don’t want everyone to put their lives on hold for their protection. Damn what a mess.

      • George, I’m a bit older than you. A dear ex died recently and that put me on alert that living in fear and delaying dreams will only assure me that I’ll miss out on the rest of my life. I recently did a 4000 road trip to violate quarantines for a while with someone I may possibly never share a bed with again. IMHO, that was worth any consequence! So far, nothing negative at all affecting the health of anyone. I doubt this Covid situation will resolve any time soon, and failing to live our dreams to the best of our abilities will result in a lesser life – perhaps much lesser. Meanwhile, the authoritarians creep closer every day, like the Weeping Angels!


        You and Elaine have it right: You’re quarantining together while living your dreams! Not all of us can succeed at this, but we can all make serious attempts.

  15. looks like only a few left that still function normally . never ever dreamed of how bad something could be . beyond satan , beyond hell , beyond psyops . well here it is . so on with the music for 10 hours then watch reruns of hogans heroes then wait for another dose . in between gym , a couple of beers and chicken and veges.. my mentor steven john Kaplan in new jersey has gone underground. wont even discuss evil with his best pupil . obviously like all gurus making a fortune toasting and roasting folks for the fourth reich

  16. don’t know why I cant get one image out of my head . like the horror that the 3rd reich put those people thru telling them they were going to be cleaned , it was good for them , then killing them . so bad . no comparison but today like saying its good for you , love the robots , love the control . I have read most of George orwells works . maybe he wasn’t a plant . that dick Nostradamus was a plant in the cave by chief evils dad keith Murdoch. gotta scare em and sell

  17. New project LOL.. five year old wanted to build a pirate ship.. so .. I guess a grandpa and grandson project is in order..
    I just hope he doesn’t get bored since it won’t be a one hour build.. I remember all the airplanes and making a model of the titanic etc.. in europe , russian , china , japan etc. they are big on parent and child crafts.. so there are thousands of paper models out there to choose from.. in france they have contests to see how far their paper airplane models can fly.. both powered with remote controls and unpowered just toss it in the air.. amazing some of them.. the 727 was one of the harder ones.. mostly because of the size of the engines.. and fuselage.. of course I did print out the smaller of the ones you could download..
    it will be great fun to start to make these again..

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