Unemployment Filings Jump
Hot off the screen snagger:
“The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 743,460 in the week ending November 14, an increase of 18,344 (or 2.5 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 13,302 (or -1.8 percent) from the previous week. There were 227,892 initial claims in the comparable week in 2019. In addition, for the week ending November 14, 52 states reported 320,237 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.2 percent during the week ending November 7, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week.
Meantime, the Philly Fed report is also just out:
“Current Indicators Reflect Continued Recovery
The diffusion index for current activity decreased 6 points to 26.3 in November, its sixth consecutive positive reading after reaching long-term lows in April and May (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases this month (42 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (15 percent). The index for new orders decreased 5 points to a reading of 37.9. Nearly 49 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders this month, compared with 55 percent last month. The current shipments index fell 22 points to 24.9 in November. Nearly 41 percent of the firms reported higher shipments, compared with 57 percent last month.”
Like the silicon voice says on the phone: “Please make a note of it!” No Joe, recovering economy. Now, drop by this coming spring…
Surprised Or Innumerate?
Hand-wringing continues by whiners all worked up over Covid-19 and are buying into Hysteria 2.0. Yet, it’s time to grade expectation management based on what we knew 45-days ago. (Yes, this is a statistics class.)
In early October we projected ahead as follows:
Let’s see how this is working out, shall we? (Hint: Spot on)
As of this morning Global Cases was 56.358-million. We’re on track there.
Global death today is 1,351,381…so that’s looking pretty close, too.
Cases today? 11.53-million, so we need 788,000 new cases – and by the roll of headlines that one will be close, more’n likely, too.
U.S. deaths this morning are 250,548. We can project the death toll actually coming in a bit under 45-day old forecast levels. But we’ll see…
Still, not a bad math exercise, though pardon the grim subject matter.
Point is to use this whole situation as a “learning lab.” In other words, we knew a month and a half back that this was coming. My Consigliere, who we love to have visit for Thanksgiving, saw exactly this same stats picture. We made the “scrub the turkey visit” way about Oct. 1. Data rules all but fools.
Swimming In Vaccines
OK, with the Moderna news this week, here comes another vax as Phase 2 results of Oxford, AstraZeneca vaccine trial show promising results. Pretty soon (like toothpaste) we will be swimming in consumer choices.
Oh shit – Trump was right (“any day now”) and no sign of Joe being involved. (Audience gasps…). Days after the election? All smells to high heaven.
Even further along strange: Suit claims Tyson managers bet money on employees getting COVID-19. But, where’s the causation needed to win? Gambling on the Sun coming up, for example, doesn’t change what happens at dawn, know what I mean? Jury? Emotions? Ah….sales then?
Interesting human progress note comes to mind: Remember when the shape of an ambulance and a hearse were roughly the same? (You may not be that old now, but the box-truck config of medic units today visually differentiates and it strikes me as a “progress of humans” marker we oldsters have seen…)
Just have your votes counted in Spain and STFU.
A Lesson in Handling Panic
There are plenty lessons here, but let me toss two out because they really are important.
- People react to news in stupid ways. The virus is just one. Folks seem (and this is odd – worthy of deep study) to be anxious to show “opposition” to Reality. In Texas, no masks by “patriots.” On a different day, in the wake of George Floyd’s killing, people burned down their own ‘hood. You seeing the odd behavior pattern, yet?
- What they is the right “Personal Process Plan” to cope with things that outrage, offend, and piss you off to the point where you’re just busting to ACT?
Just like we can write a “redirect handler” in code, we can write our own “Personal news Handler” code. Ours goes something like this:
- D Define the playing field. How big is the story? Does it impact you personally? Does is threaten to impact people we love?
- A Analyze to project a bit: Might the story have local repercussions? In your city, on your work site? In your church or social group?
- P Project – what’s the worst case and what’s the best case and – between these extremes, what’s the middle path which has the highest payoff? It will always be “off-center.” Because there is no such thing as 10% dead, for example.
- R Respond. We began our response in January. Cloroxing everything coming in. And even today, we are still handling things the same. We’d already stopped going into “stores” back in November of last year…a spidey-sense thing that we would need to be “in-person-free” – funny how life leads a safer path if you let it…
Ain’t that hard to do. Any time Shock” and “Awe” come along, DAPR is the answer.
Stupid is the worst co-morbidity of all. If CV-19 is still catching you unawares with headlines, you might want to tune-up your attention skills and turn down the voice in your head. A few STFU’s in that direction can save your life.
With sorting labels to make this easy:
Biden Screw-ups to Expect File: Israeli settlers in the West Bank confront the Biden reality. Since Trump has made progress, we have no doubts Joe will botch it and listen to the Neocons who’ve survived in Foggy Bottom.
Polish the Resume file. If you work for a small company with falling sales on CV-19. “The week in bankruptcies: Factory Sports Training dba USA Fitness.”
File under Wildfires: 2021: ‘World’s largest helitanker’ demonstrates firefighting water drops in California. Could have used it on the Lion’s Gate and Beachie fires in Oregon this fall. Not sure about it’s altitude for fires like East Troublesome, which smolders on.
Climate Change file: Think about this for a sec – Oil prices slip as new wave of COVID-19 cases weigh on outlook. OK, if oil consumption goes down that fights climate change (ne warming), right?
Told You So File at the NY Times still brimming: States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks. Thankfully, we have a governor in Texas who has managed rationally. Hasn’t sent CV-sick to nursing homes like Cuomo…which the lefterlies of NYC wanna bury to ensure re-election….
Dow futures down 77 S&P down 10 as the market loafs along on air. Money stocks report tomorrow morning will be fun. We will see how much “electioneering” was done…
Quick lesson in soldering Sunday in our “making section.” On the Ultra-Make site, we have a discussion of beds and bedding materials (for printers, not the duvet, silly!).
And on Peoplenomics, some real breakthrough stuff on making Crypto’s more real. Lisa Lyon called from Coast to Coast AM with George Noory last night. So guess I will be on Coast Wednesday night (turkey squared (or cubed), is it?) to talk about how 3D printing is about to radically change the world. Economic disrupters ahead.
For this morning? Back to pondering the important: Will there be a second season of Alex Rider? Will Andy ever get a new post up on his https://doorfore.com site? Will Israel attack Iran over Thanksgiving? Will Santa bring us a pallet of $100’s?
Write when you get rich (or give Santa directions to our place),