Take the market, for example, please.
The price of oil has rallied (all the way up to $49) and the market believes this to be splendid.
Similarly, the 10-year Treasury is up to 1.95% which is about as close to hanging out the “Free Money!” sign.
And while this continues, our view that we’re now in August of 1927 remains pretty much intact.
Oh, sure, the world could roll over and collapse into an economic heap, but until one of the financially important markets makes a mistake, it’s not likely to happen.
Even the Russians have quieted down a bit. But off in the background, they have one-upped the West are are now inviting foreigners to serve in the Russian military.
And it’s not like other important fundamental state-changes aren’t happening: One of the radical Muslim killers in France has reportedly turned himself in. Yet to markets, which should be taking the Islamic take-down of Europe far more seriously, it’s been like trying to talk to drunks in mid-binge.
Maybe people who run markets really don’t study history, or, if they do, they must have missed the Moorish invasion. To help out, a little Wikipedia help is in order:
“They grew well beyond the Arabian Peninsula in the form of a Muslim empire with an area of influence that stretched from the borders of China and India, across Central Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Sicily, and the Iberian Peninsula, to the Pyrenees. Edward Gibbon writes in The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:
Under the last of the Umayyads, the Arabian empire extended two hundred days journey from east to west, from the confines of Tartary and India to the shores of the Atlantic Ocean. And if we retrench the sleeve of the robe, as it is styled by their writers, the long and narrow province of Africa, the solid and compact dominion from Fargana to Aden, from Tarsus to Surat, will spread on every side to the measure of four or five months of the march of a caravan. We should vainly seek the indissoluble union and easy obedience that pervaded the government of Augustus and the Antonines; but the progress of Islam diffused over this ample space a general resemblance of manners and opinions. The language and laws of the Quran were studied with equal devotion at Samarcand and Seville: the Moor and the Indian embraced as countrymen and brothers in the pilgrimage of Mecca; and the Arabian language was adopted as the popular idiom in all the provinces to the westward of the Tigris.
The Muslim conquests brought about the collapse of the Sassanid Empire and a great territorial loss for the Byzantine Empire, eventually also resulting in its collapse. The reasons for the Muslim success are hard to reconstruct in hindsight, primarily because only fragmentary sources from the period have survived. Most historians agree that the Sassanid Persian and Byzantine Roman empires were militarily and economically exhausted from decades of fighting one another. The rapid fall of Visigothic Spain remains less easily explicable.”
For the exceptionally stupid, this is what is going on globally right now. And it’s being facilitates in fine Ju-Jitsu fashion, by leveraging the West’s insane addition to political correctness which, as we shall observe, is getting us into more trouble than it is getting us out of. Remember, a good portion of the people coming in through that 700-miles of still-porous border with Mexico are OTMs – other than Mexicans and folks are coming from all over the world.
We are idiots and thus, doomed. Don’t tell the markets this. For them it’s the Roaring Twenties at least for another day.
Tomorrow that might change with the release of new unemployment figures. But already we have some samples and indicators of how that will play:
And this morning’s Challenger jobs report showed something even more amazing:
Based on these latest events, we are on the verge of rethinking the outlook for a market collapse from a low around February 19/20./ However before that comes off the table, we still need to see the Dow break back up above the December highs.
That would mean a rally up to 18,054 and since futures are suggestive of 200 points today, that would only get us close: around 17,800 maybe? And that could be very bad because it would be a Fibonacci kind of bounce from recent lows, and then the market could start down next week, again.
Want even more gas on today’s screaming rally? The Gallup polling organization has a hotty ou:
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, was 44.3% in December, statistically similar to the 44.2% measured in November. The percentage of Americans employed full time for an employer in 2014 did not show a steep end-of-year decline as it did in 2012 and 2013, offering hope that the P2P metric may strengthen more in the new year.
Dow futures are up 150, S&P up 16, and oil prices are still under $49. What’s not to love? Where is Dorothy Provine when we need her?
And In Other News
It’s colder than a well-digger’s butt with some parts of the country experiencing school closings and what have you.
Around East Texas, we have a chance of snow tomorrow and into the weekend, though just a bit of ice or sleet seems the smarter bet.
This morning, calm winds, low temps, a wide dew point spread…screw it. We’re going to take the plane up for a while. I will try to remember to get my copilot to shoot a vid for Friday…
More after this…