There really isn’t too much interesting news flow today, except for The War, of course.
But even here, the stories (like Hollywood Halts Releases In Russia, Including ‘The Batman’) strike us as childish. Just like throwing out good vodka.
You see, the real story here – as seen from the East Texas Outback – is more one of real estate than Reality; more resources and this includes “tax chattel” (humans).
In fact, from our odd economics based futuring perspective, the odds of nuclear weapons will be higher this weekend than even the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Back to Real Estate. Back in 2014, or thereabouts, remember the EU bigwigs let their plans out of the bag. “We envision a European Union stretching from Portugal to Vladivostok” or words to that effect.
As a result, Russia likely views Ukraine as a likely source of EU expansionism. And in what the (crooked, co-opted) western Media overlooks EU starts considering Ukraine’s application for membership (ukrinform.net).
Real estate, money and resources, and women…why else “do war”?
Ever since, Russia – no stranger to violent invasions – has gone right to the “bad place.” Recall, as my consigliere pointed out Monday, that Russia had actually asked to join NATO in 1998/1999 but was turned down. War, understand, is a good business model. Europe knows that.
Absent periodic wars to “cull the herd” human populations would already have eaten through all planetary resources and we’d be well down the “backside of Civilization” as depletion would be coming for us all.
Straightaway, then, let’s be clear: War is bad, immoral, painful, and the cause of great human sufferings.
BUT it spurs the hell out of technical innovation. And it keeps the population in check. It keeps strong governments in power, and the threat of “oppressors” (paint ’em up any color you want; red, yellow, whatever…) keeps populations paying “tribute” [taxes].
Why, in a war-free world, there would be no nuclear power, for example. And this morning, nuclear power provides 19.7 percent of America’s power. That wind provides only 8 1/2 percent confirms we don’t have enough windmills to tilt at around state and the Nation’s Capitol.
We’re Here – As We Told You
From a trading standpoint. I told you in December where our Aggregate Index was forecasting, we’d be in the immediate future. Follow the crudely scrawled yellow arrow…
Well, how about that? We got something right. Which is why I invented the Aggregate Index approach in the first place.
Now We Have Two Problems
The Future will be decided in the next week. Literally, the Future is being battled over even now. But not in ways apparent from watching Mainstream Mush Media. This is far simpler.
One: Fifth Waves under Elliott can extend downward.
So, even if Biden gets a couple of promising job numbers (which might help the market close for the week) the larger problem is the potential for a decline after severe weekend fighting over Mariupol and Odessa. (Remember? We said these would be key.)
Two: The Decline since November may be a Larger Wave 1 Down.
There are several ways this can occur. But the most OBVIOUS is that we are in the final part of only the Opening Act of War. Refer to G.A. Stewart’s book for the prophetic views of Nostradamus. Or open a newspaper and scan for the items related to the two other major wars expected: Taiwan and Israel/Iran.
Thing is, IF the decline from November is only a Larger Wave 1 down, then its 5th wave low becomes the larger degree Wave’s first decline low. Like so:
Decoder ring time:
- Green Circle: We carry the Wave 1 fifth low over to the next larger degree worksheet. That came in Wednesday of last week.
- Purple Arrow: The Wave 2 rally (in this larger count that we could already be in – just too dumb to notice) could scream up to 40,494 but at a minimum we would like to see a Fibonacci retracement of 0.382 which is the 38,347 area. Monday the Aggregate closed at 37,407 so almost up to a minimal Wave 2 rally point but could go much higher.
- The Red Arrow: This says when (whatever is ahead) happens, it could wallop the shit out of markets. Down under 31,000 in t5he Aggregate.
None of this is trading or investment advice. We don’t do that. We are, however, keenly interested in the Long Wave economics aspects.
Real Collapse in Perspective
We’ve been noodling the notion World War III started in late 2019 with the possible release at the world military games in China of Covid-19. Oh, sure, the “official” story is still “wet market,” but the data is contentious, and we the simple tax chattel will likely never know the truth.
If we run the clock from Germany’s first invasions of WW II (Poland, 1939) and run the clock out to the 2022 invasion by Russia of Ukraine in 2022, we see that it’s 83-years.
If you have a good memory, you’ll recall that a colleague of mine and I posited a long than Kondratiev wave function based on bankrupting of currencies. This was projected as an 83.5 year cycle. We did this work in 2001.
Essentially, it reduced as a 27.8 year Kondratiev half-way PLUS a full 44.66-year Kondratiev. Which is how long it seems to take for a nation’s currency to be wrecked. When the residual purchasing power drops into the 3% to 5% range, people’s faith in government is destroyed.
We are under 4 percent remaining purchasing power now vis the 1913 pre-Fed dollar.
Curiously, there is a “World War III over Money” angle, then, as we see how cryptos have arisen strongly as an alternative currency. Ukraine is crypto friendly and Russia distinctly not.
Another Gradient Issue
There is also the matter of sociopolitical friction.
If you have a very rich family living next door to a dirt-poor family, you’re asking for social conflict. Haves will defend and are generally disinclined to share with the have-nots. What comes as a consequence is theft, burglary, fencing stolen goods and other bad social antics; the poor don’t like being that way and will take if you turn your back on ’em.
You can literally spot the high crime rates of big cities by driving around. Look for those areas where the poor but up against the rich. There’s your high crime risk area.
Countries are much the same way. The Odessa File was a good spy novel (Forsyth) about Nazis and such. But Odessa really was (and persists) as a hotbed of national socialism, perhaps the most extreme outside of Germany. having suffered at the hands of Nazis, Russia may be seen as “still fighting the last war” in seeking a “hard win” in southern Ukraine.
My consigliere suggests we all keep an eye on Odessa. Russia will want an “example” and Odessa may be the place where the gloves come off or the NSNW launch codes come out. Just an inkling, but on the hot sheet to watch, nonetheless.
No Time to Play
In our accounts, we’re snoozing on the sidelines for now. Sure, the astrological Mars ruling pops out tomorrow. But the ADP numbers might provide an upside surprise. and if so, then the Federal numbers could be good as well. It’s a kind of given the Thursday job cuts report will be very low.
All of which would have us awaiting a week-ending potential to rally but then comes March 6th which has popped up a couple of times on dream and prophesy boards.
We may have more to report next week on our Prophets and Losses.
A little over an hour to the open, Dow futures were down more than 200 and much of Europe was down more than 2 percent. But by this afternoon or maybe tomorrow, some of that monthly 401k money may come in so we’ll just have to see what gives.
BTC is up in the $45,000 range. We’re expecting our outlook for BTC to take over the gaps created by US sanctions a bit. Which could keep pressing BTC up. As it does, old-line governments worldwide may be expected to impose hard bans on cryptos because they make it so easy to work-around government sanctions.
When government does get “hard on cryptos” it may become difficult to continue a position in them if you have one. We don’t play it, though: since we’ve seen it as an anti-government money scheme (like Tulips in 1934 Holland) from the get-go.
The Associated Press story Russia eyes sanctions workarounds in energy, gold, crypto | AP News gets into the workarounds space.
Government not only hates competition but can get downright mean and nasty when its rules are ignored. We don’t pick fights with Big Bullies.
Truckers are heading for the nation’s capitol Truckers stop in Missouri during their long-haul convoy for ‘freedom’ – qconline.com.
Neil Diamond has sold his music catalog for big bucks: Neil Diamond sells music catalog, recording rights to Universal music group | Fox Business
And if you are looking for a job, toss an app in at Target: Target to boost pay up $24 an hour in competitive markets (bostonherald.com)
ATR: Supplies Roll In
Credit where due: We don’t go into town very often: No need when you live semi-remote. Amazon brings in power tools, hardware, and occasional loads of paper products and plastic bags. Cheaper-than-Dirt keeps us supplied with plinking rounds. (Ever plink with tracer rounds?) And ViaSat keeps Skype going. The once every week to 10-days for a grocery top-off is just fine.
But we have noticed a good increase in the speed of product deliveries from Amazon, Wal-Mart, and Harbor Freight in the past couple of weeks. We’re getting “expect early delivery of….” notices now.
This is NOT to say that supply chain disruptions are ending. There will always be stories like Toyota cyberattack: Production to restart in Japan after attack on Kojima Industries – CNN.
But for now – the past week, or so – things have definitely improved on the speed and reliability of deliveries. Let’s see how long before the (slow) media picks up on the “last mile user experience” which is brightening locally. Be an interesting timing because it may tell us about the “disconnectedness” of media.
A shout-out and thank you to the US Post Office, UPS, and FedEx for coming through.
Write when you get rich,