You ever shoot pool, or play golf? I want you to think back to the wildest of those times. To either when you rolled the golf-cart over while playing “polo golf” in the rain in Seattle at Jackson Field (Randy, my UPS driver a billion years ago, lost a $20-on that). Or the time at the sailing bar when the “table was open” while doing it’s damnedest to hold up the player… Slop shots in Life abound.
With a four-day week ahead, markets today are kinda like that.
There’s a Bear Case and there’s a Bull Case. We’ve chosen to play the “Just In Case” by sitting in cash. Here’s why — starting with how we’re “replaying 1929”:
This is what comes out of lining up the February 19th high in our Aggregate Index and norming it to market data from the September 3 high back in 19-ought-29.
We were doing fine until late March. Why, we were set to make bazillions and (actually) retire. To a life of sleeping-in and writing brilliant novels. Then the Fed went nuts at the printing press. And it is still nuts and running with the most recent 90-day window (in the H.6 money stocks report, table 2) at an annualized rate of 88.5%. Over a hundred percent in Table 1, but that’s slow-poke data.
The Trader’s Dilemma
The big pink box above can be argued as enclosing five Elliott Waves up. And since the market has recently “gone soft on us” (never a good thing for masculinity of Bulls!) there are two cases to be concerned with. IoW: Two sets of my “trading boxes” are worth pondering in here: The three box set (green) says “done, stick a fork in this market!” But the set of two boxes *(yellow) screams a rerun up to the old all-time high and a tiny bit past is also possible. When in doubt, drink beer.
The short-term problem for the market is that with the modest rally foretold by dummying-up the futures pricing into the chart (which is why we’re “flattish” today) the tight down channel could be in trouble. A tiny bit of rally – today and tomorrow? But then, who wants to hold stocks over the Fourth which begins at Miller Time on the second? (Is this a great country, or what?)
Something that 71+ year as taught me about forecasting the future? When in doubt, don’t put money on it. Wait for the trend to clarify. We could go either way today and tomorrow…so let’s watch.
Stacking Dead Like Cord Wood
Several items fell out of our work this weekend on forecasting the pandemic’s results. Some of this may not have “hit the press” yet, but we need to be “mentally ready” for some of the following to start showing up.
- Globally, we could see 1/2-a billion cases before year end.
- Barring breakthroughs in public health, year end globally could hit 522,270,628 cases.
- The current rate of spread is about 11.23469% every five days.
- Deaths will pile up: By year-end, our projections estimate 4,279,606 dead globally.
- Global deaths are compounding at a rate of 5.9626802% every five days.
There are two ways to calculate mortality: The “happy way” and the “Epidemiologically correct” way. The happy talk way (deaths divided by total cases) is presently 4.944%. But the correct calculation is higher (Cases with known outcomes into deaths) 8.887%.
The U.S. Outlook
Barring changes (which are expected) here’s how the US could wind up 2020:
- Our case count could be upwards of 131,098,363.
- The U.S. death toll could reach 1,072,382.
Because we have much better medical and public health measures than South America, for example, we could expect the real tragedies will be external.
We also expect that at some point, rather than argue for a “global climate tax” the One-Worlders will make a pitch for a “global pandemic tax.” Regardless of justifications offered, sit on your wallet and refuse. Sure the numbers are big, though smaller (but may change) as people act stupid.
Wait! Maybe it’s not an act. OMG…
Compounded by stories like Half of Tennessee coronavirus infections now come from an ‘unknown source’. Ain’t that just peachy? And the Wall Street Journal article (U.S. Coronavirus Cases Surge Amid Strains on Hospitals) makes the disease-savvy worry that as cases continue to grow, the outlook for running out of hospital equipment (PPE, ventilators, etc.) may not be past.
I had to pick up a prescription in town Saturday. Half the people in the pharmacy (though 100% of staff) were not wearing masks. Again, we reiterate our long-held position: CV-19 is NOT a political issue, it is a MEDICAL ISSUE. And people dumb-enough not to figure that out, are at serious risk. Especially in states like Arizona and Texas. Where? Country Judge up in Dallas, Clay Jenkins asks governor to require masks in Texas as Dallas County reports record 570 coronavirus cases.”
Unfortunately (for all of us) there are national media that continue to play the POLITICAL ANGLE to all this. I’d offer as an example The Atlantic whipping up (useless partisan bullshit) in “This Is Trump’s Plague Now.” No, it’s CHINA’S PLAGUE. Has everyone lost their frigging minds? Who called Trump an idiot for closing down air travel? Jesus help up…the world’s nuts.
Need more evidence?
Global Insanity Spreading (thanks Social Media!)
Defund police? Why stop there? Let’s empty jails into the CivPop, too! Let’s try this out in, oh, California: Governor Newsom pardons 13, commutes 21 sentences. An accessory to murder among ’em… great move! Let’s all move to Seattle, huh?
Up there, the lefty’s still have their little gang-run commune stolen from property owners as the mayor sits on her ass. As KING-TV reports Barriers in Seattle’s ‘CHOP’ zone remain after city talked of dismantling it Sunday. Duh. Lefty mayor and a commie council? What could go wrong? March to chant at the mayor’s house to demand “defunding?” Stupid is as stupid votes…
Here in fly-over country, the idiocy hasn’t taken hold: ‘This is not Seattle’: Oklahoma City protest yields charges of terrorism, rioting, assault. While the Oklahoma prosecutor is getting tough on crime, the local ACLU chapter up there says terrorism charges is an “abuse of power.” So, inciting to riot, arson, rioting, attacking cops is…what, nursery school?
As a once, long-ago, member of the ACLU, this kind of sloppy thinking is why I quit. Enforcing the law is NOT AN ABUSE OF POWER. Shit – Why can’t people separate process and the law (law & order) from the Digital Uprising? Stupid…just freaking stupid. Where’s the “grown up media?” Besides here…
Blood Pressure Up Yet?
We’ll keep going, then…
We observe the Washington Post being deliriously wrong again in “The world’s climate catastrophe worsens amid the pandemic.” No, actually, with fewer people flying, driving, and locking dow, there’s less climate load… The story admits this and then goes off hand-wringing…FMTT. (Who are these people that can’t figure out that “if everyone dies, there’s no climate problem?”)
Paint Vice as another alarmist outpost for their This Map Shows Which U.S. Homes Will Flood Over the Next 30 Years Due to Climate Change. Wait…let’s go back to the Map of NY City underwater by now, can we? Can we? Huh? Huh? Please?
Well, absent facts, how about we roll with utter gibberish? Wolf this one down: Climate drives intraspecific differentiation in the expression of growth-defence trade-offs in a long-lived pine species. (We run a tree farm here and have no idea what the f*ck these Brits are getting at…so we will keep cutting down sequestered carbon sticks as mood swings, landscaping whims, and prices drive us…)
“Adaptive and plastic responses…” WTF, even Darwin didn’t go so gibberish. Elites in charge warning!…Everyone bow down to gibberish.
Fact of the matter (so far as we can figure it) is Climate preachers are learning from Marxists: Make up NuSpeak, use NuWerds and you will own Fear Factors…and that will get you published…
“Please George, Tell Us Something GOOD”
Good news doesn’t sell. And bad news does. Which is why bad news and fear-flaming is what media does now.
We are out of logical improvements and capitalism is in its death throes due to a lack of growth. The commies see a vacuum (beyond the one between their ears) so what happens next is “Life in the Blender.” Making up The Crisis Industry! (More on this in upcoming Peoplenomics reports.)
Now, we will just have a nice breakfast, watch the lawn grow, and work in the shop for a while.
Life’s too short for B.S. Real news tomorrow as we get monthly housing data from Case Shiller. Dallas Fed Manufacturing numbers mid-session today.
Dow Futures now up 210, so the Monday-Tuesday Rally theory may be in play. We don’t play in the street when the traffic is confused.
Write when you get rich,