We will take care of “real news” first, today. Down toward the end of this report you’ll find the “book news” and some research notes. More tomorrow for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers.
Today Plus 2
An abbreviated trading week and before the housing numbers, the Dow futures were down a bit. Although we did a $60 “lunch money trade” Monday, there are simply too many ways the market could resolve in here.
- Bull hopes are alive because we could see one of the trading boxes “fill” with a run up to about the same market levels of Feb. 19th when our Aggregate peaked out. In the Bull’s corner is the complicit Fed, trying their damnedest to keep money in circulation. And, despite our deep distrust of Marxist Monetary Theory, even Capitalists can see that an injection of “just-more-than-enough” ready cash, could reignite manageable inflation. Which in turn would force dark pools of capital out of long-term instruments. And that would kick-start the Velocity of Money at M-2 which is (for all intents and purposes) dead.
- Bear hope live on, too. They can see that the virus impacts are not fully discounted, yet. Companies are becoming more massively over-priced by the day as revenues fall and people pull-in their spending. Not only are foreign goods price increases showing up at stores, but the longer-term capital-intensive industries like travel, cruise ships, and all that, remain at risk.
- Agnostics (like… ahem) are not above spotting short-term intraday action, and stealing lunch money from those who have “commitment to causes.” Commitment is a good thing in marriages and to personal goals in life. When comes to finance (which is always in self-optimizing flux)? Not so much.
Before Housing, Dow futures were down 125-Dow points. Pricing in Europe would suggest a bit of follow-through rally today. But after that? Who in their right mind would hold a substantial market position over the holiday weekend? (Then again, what investor is truly “in their right mind” in this fox-uniformed world, anyway?)
Data Density Dance – Pending
Tomorrow morning (for Peoplenomics readers), we will get a foretaste of the job numbers. ADP will report the hiring side. Challenger will have job cuts. And all that will tee-up Thursday when there’s federal job data, along with weekly new jobless claims, international trade, followed by factory orders (about mid-session Thursday) and after the close, the (not really ) “Federal” Reserve will confess to their print rate which we expect will be in the vicinity of 90% annualized in the close-in data (table 2).
As the Drake-Chennault radio programming service used in Top-40 radio jingles back in the 1960’s put it “And the Hits Just Keep on Coming!” Which, naturally, leads to a long discussion about “staging” of recorded music. And the intricacies that some broadcast organizations put into recording such classic jingles as the BBC Radio-2 series in 2013… but I digress.
So let’s stack up the virus stories and save the musicology class for later, shall we?
- Coronavirus updates: New ‘pandemic potential’ found in China; New Jersey bans smoking, drinking at casinos
- California enters a perilous phase as coronavirus spread intensifies
- And in Michigan, Disappearing cash scares consumers in COVID-19 era.
“And the dead just keep on comin…” (Sheesh!)
Political Sniping Season
The report that “Following weeks of dismal polls, Fox News report wonders whether Trump will drop out” has us looking to see who on the GOP side would be doing a happy-dance. Besides Romney…
Pelosi’s House of Fools is still wasting taxpayer dough on things with no hope: House passes ACA expansion bill largely as symbolic gesture. Because no way in hell will Trump sign or the Senate pass…To us, they have to be among the stupidest uprights ever not to be able to see this.
The 7th Circuit is rational: Appeals court limits Wisconsin early voting to 2 weeks before election, stops voters from receiving ballots via email, fax. Had this been to the 9th Circus in San Francisco, I’m sure there would be ballot distros just inside the border…
“Foreign Policy” is Wrong, As We See It
When they headline the article “Tearing Down Statues Won’t Undo History” we claim the data says otherwise. History is written by those in power. The winners.
We have tons of historical revisionism running amuck worldwide and I’m shocked that FP is selling such pap. Marxists, socialist, and Antifa all want to rewrite history to their own agendas. I mean come on, FP, WTF? Comes and goes? No, it’s a history of mind control written by those who prevail in conflict. Call it what it is. Mostly, counter-revolutionaries.
Castle Doctrine Questions
…. galore as we read how “St. Louis couple who pointed guns at protesters saw threat by ‘bad actors,’ lawyer says; protester says he feared ‘blood bath’. Might want to check your state’s “stand your ground” laws just to be informed.
Register Dogs, Not Guns
Why? Well… Texas Dog Attack: Infant Mauled To Death By Pit Bull, Canine Seized. Then there was the story over the weekend about how a Woman, 72, killed after being attacked by her own pit bulls: authorities. And what about Iowa man used pit bull to attack others, killed dog when it turned on him, police say?
Seems to me that people who buy “killer breeds” ought to be required to take some kind of training beforehand. This from a fellow (me) who owned a 125-pound German Shepherd at one time (“Bismarck!”). Until he jumped a five-foot fence and took down a neurosurgeon who was jogging by. Unhurt (which averted bankruptcy potential) the dog “went away” shortly thereafter.
Ure’s Next Book?
Sketching up an outline, with a possible chapter on Peoplenomics tomorrow.
“The Mad Scientist’s Notebook” will be a collection of my (admittedly peculiar) way of looking at things.
For instance, I see patterns where there may – or may not – be any.
Like this morning: Saw this email from USGS:
- 38.158°N 117.957°W
- 8.7 km
Which was very close to this “Presto Alert”
:Issued: 2020 Jun 30 0725 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
# FAST WARNING ‘PRESTO’ MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
The in situ observations show the arrival of the shock wave, this morning at 01:24 UT. The magnetic field magnitude, currently about 6 nT, showed simultaneous increase with the solar wind speed (maximum value reached was 390 km/s), density and the temperature.
The solar origin of the observed shock is presently unclear and more will be reported later. Currently the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is positive and no geomagnetic disturbance is reported (K=2 and Kp=2, as reported by Dourbes and NOAA, respectively).
Bottom line for us:
Here comes a blast from the sun and 8-hours later a quake. Now, I find this sort of thing incredibly interesting.
The book is about much more than the expected (quakes, flying, light crowns, oddities in electronics and what have you). It’s all about the inquisitive mind, how to ask questions without fear and be open to all kinds of answers.
A kind of “course on thinking styles” and how they can be applied across a wide-range of disciplines.
First chapter title? NFOR: The Noise Floor of Reality.
OK, off to fetch Housing data…
Write when you get rich,