Retrace Delights, Job Number Ponders

Retracements are one of the most interesting features of stock market performance.  You will see a big decline (like from Sept. 2) when people come to their senses.  Then you get often-times manic, insane rallies – like the one we have been in this week.

It’s the stuff of Elliott Wave 2 bounces  – sometimes. 

If that’s what we’re now in, the rally should come to an end shortly, but in the meantime, a lot of “bear meat” is being served to the Bull Run.  Where can we go next?

That yellow circled are in the middle is what leads us to think the run could be in the late-mature phase now.  But, like the old Greenspan saying went (going from memory here):  “Markets can remain irrational longer than most people can remain solvent.”  Or, words to that effect.

Based on market action, we wouldn’t be surprised in the H.6 money stocks confessional after the close today, to see the money supply jumping.

The Facts Showing Up?

Not that facts matter much to people.  Especially in Irrational Markets.  Still, the new Challenger Job Cuts report is sobering:  Up 186% compared with September of last year:

“Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers jumped to 118,804 in September, up 2.6% from August’s total of 115,762, according to a monthly report released Thursday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. September’s total is 186% higher than the 41,557 job cuts announced in September 2019.

Last month’s job cuts bring the yearly total so far to 2,082,262, up 348% from the 464,869 cuts at this time last year. The current year-to-date total already surpasses the record highest annual total – 1,956,876 cuts  announced in 2001 – by 125,386 cuts. Challenger began tracking job cut announcements in January 1993.

“We are setting new records for job cuts even though things have improved since the earliest days of the pandemic,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. “These are uncertain times for everyone, as many states are experiencing an uptick in the number of COVID-19 cases. It is clear we still have a long way to go before many industries can return to normal.”

The Weekly Jobs Data

Also just out from the Labor Department is the weekly claims filings and change to unemployment rates: (something to hang the hopium on…)

“In the week ending September 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 837,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 3,000 from 870,000 to 873,000. The 4-week moving average was 867,250, a decrease of 11,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 878,250 to 879,000.

I think one of the reasons the market is still (stupidly) pressing on toward a possible 1.618 Fibonacci bounce is that the ADP number was good Wednesday, and the horrible debate (The American Train Wreck, Moderated) allows everyone to claim victory.  Not realizing we’re all losers in this.

Personal Incomes

As if the Drool Day debate wasn’t enough of a joke, we have this morning’s personal income report from the Labor Commissariat.  Says – in a remarkable moment of clarity – that personal incomes are going south…

Personal income decreased $543.5 billion (2.7 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $570.9 billion (3.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $141.1 billion (1.0 percent).

Real DPI decreased 3.5 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.7 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent..

A person able to pass a drug test might wonder “How can markets rise when crap like this is hitting the fan – jobs falling and dueling idiots for the WH?”  Well, yeah:  The Data IS running sucko, Bucko:

Hell if we know why crack-driven markets would go up……just toke it up... and laugh along with us.

Speaking comic relief:  Here goes the Washington Post again with more apologist crap for the DC-Do-Nothings in The Finance 202: Economic relief talks face do-or-die moment…

There’s no excuse for all this fiddle-farting around (Nasty and Shifty aside).  It’s just the House would rather punish the victims (we tax chattel) rather than allow funds to hit prior to the Electile Dysfunction.  Re-dicking-fuculous.

Shaking and…???

We have been mentioning the increasing odds of West Coast earthquake action increasing for almost a year, now.  Reason?  There was some very good research done a while back (several years) that linked the long-term bottom in Sun cycles with changes in the seismic activity levels.  Not unexpected:  Things big bigger when hot, smaller when cold, generally.  Nothing new there.

But, while we have been waiting to see if the Golden State falls in the ocean,; cast your eyes now on the overnight quake picture out west: Swarm of more than 80 small earthquakes rattle Southern California; no damage or injuries reported.

No, this is not to say we expect this to result in SoCal becoming a big-ass island any time soon.  BUT, we have sailed the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Haro Straight up into B.C. often enough to realize that little “island forming” incidents (that caused Vancouver Island, for example) are not unheard of around the eastern Pacific Rim.

Trust you also remember that the elevation of the Salton Sea south of Palm Springs  is -226.4 feet, right?  Deep water port in waiting – just need the seismic ditch-digger to come along.

OK, What Really Matters?

You mean besides a kill-switch  called the STFU-Button for “debates”?  Well…

DEMANDS for do-overs are incredibly popular these days.  So we notice stories like how an “Ohio killer alleging racism-tainted jury seeks new trial.”

Also in Courthouse buzz today we see where Court OK’s $800M settlement from MGM Resorts to 2017 Las Vegas Strip shooting victims.  Pencils out to about $181,000 each for 4,400 claimants…

And last, but not least: Trump signs spending bill to keep the government open until Dec. 11.  Well, that’s too bad.  We ought to have at least kept funding for congress on hold until they do something right.

Oh…wait!  They’d never get paid…(Say, maybe not a bad idea there…hmmm)

Write when you get rich,

39 thoughts on “Retrace Delights, Job Number Ponders”

  1. It was John Maynard Keynes. “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can reman solvent” He got hammered a few times in his investment career.

  2. insight ? more like the truth .. watched the scum on CNBBCUUSSA . 5 minutes .. snake santelli and steve liarman .. that was enough .. garbage and puke stuff on the depression numbers for pretend employment .. ah keep it . ramp what you like .. the opposing force back the other way to truth .. that’s gunna be epic .. corrupt , greedy vegetables

  3. probably time to pull out the greatest voodoo reader of all . top of the totem pole prechter .. he will look after the boyz like he always does with mumbo jumbo .. helped em big on march 6 09 .. big government bonus .. should ask him if he has heard of Fibonacci .. probably tells you he prefers ravioli

  4. No surprise about earthquakes a couple of weeks after the equinoxes. Delta T is largest during that period and with hysteresis, it all makes sense.

    I do have to wonder what else is in that spending bill! Most people barely notice if the government is “open” or “closed”. No doubt there are perks for those who voted for it.

    Apparently the “census” is now over, even though most people in the country probably ignored it. I wonder what this will really mean, other than a make work project for 2020.

  5. Dr Ure,

    Can U shed some light on the latest HARD covert19 Scamdemic numbers for US of A for us readers ?

    Demonrat governed States:
    NY – 23k Dead/covert19
    NJ – 10k Dead/covert19
    PA – 5k Dead/covert19
    MI -5k Dead/covert19

    Total Dead =43k
    Total Pop. = 51 MM 43k/51MM+ .001 % FATALITY RATE ??????

    Rebugnican governed States:
    FL -2k Dead/covert19
    TX – 1k Dead/covert19
    GA -2k Dead/covert19
    OH -2k Dead/covert19
    Total Dead =7K – fatality rate too small to calculate..

    C’mon man! U can do it – the TRUTH will set U FREE

    (very intelligent Virus knows not to go from 2.5 ft to 4.5 ft in Restaurants and it can Discern Demonrats from Rubugnicans)

    BCN would recommend U all get out in the SUNSHINE and LIVE URE Life, instead of Hidin with Biden, in Ure basement praying&waiting for Ure Alien Savior to arrive….

    Keep Waitin Suckers – Joshua aint scheduled to arrive until AFTER the Antic Christ rises…

    Now I wonder where that might be…keep an eye on Nagorno-Karabakh region – in 2016 we were tipped off as to something ancient and powerful was afoot in that region. Stuff goes all the way back to Abraham – at least..

    “There are some very interesting churches and monasteries in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh many of which are closed to the public. Their Eastern Orthodox Mosaics tell many stories nobody in the west has ever heard of. Any serious archaeologist doing research in the area usually ends up dead. Not surprisingly.” -Kathrine Frisk/VT2016

    NOTHING TO SEE OVER THERE – just whistle and keep on moving along…

    What a shame – The pieces for “legendary” final battle, Armageddon, are starting coalesce and yet there is still ….NEIN BTC fur dich!

    BEAR Steak – Its Whats For Dinner!

    • BCN,
      Your numbers are way off.
      Texas has had 16,102 deaths.
      Florida has had 14,316 deaths
      Georgia 6,861 deaths
      Ohio 4,804 deaths.
      What’s your point?

      New York’s high because it is a world port for everything, goods, people, tourists etc. 14 million people stacked on top of one another. The risk is higher and the numbers showed it. They shut down and they abated the problem now.

      • Mark, I’ve given up on trying to teach BCN math of any sort.
        He still holds that made-up hex numbers have intrinsic value even though convertibility changes more than Trump poll numbers. Yet I have a random hex generator and should be a gazillionaire by now…
        Old line folks like us? Real estate, calories, low (or no) debt, back up plans, shove3l, matches, seeds, a long extension cord for your car…
        Guess no bitcoins for you, either?

      • “14 million people stacked on top of one another.”

        I never noticed that because of the carpeting. ;-)

      • NYC ‘s count is so high because (as a New Yorker upstate) NYC is the asshole of the world and Albany’s a few miles up it gut and upstate gets to pay for it..There I fixed it for you and put it in perspective, and no thank you is needed.!!!

      • Again with the weak minded BS – cmon class U can do better -think

        Yes I should have labeled it as such, Monthly #’s, but you catch more morons with Simple Math.

        Yes Math can be tedious – and most lazy bastards never bother to do any – case in point.

        When U two geniuses ever learn ARITHMETIC – let me know – I got some cool Ratios U might be interested in – special ratios that should appeal U 2 minds as there Name starts with 1 of Ure favorite words – Fib.

      • it all depends on WHO is reporting the numbers and what the deaths are from,China virus alone or people who had bad health to start with and any sickness would send them to meet our maker,,,,there are a LOT of dishonest bean counters with an agenda,,bad info mucks up everything,,beware of the muckers leading US to the kill pits
        THE SHUT DOWN IS DESIGNED TO KILL AMERICA(UNITED STATES of AMERICA), do you want to live under a Chinese style government, because that is where the Rino’s, Dem’s, and the tech company controllers want US, controlled and muzzled. And it all hit the fan when Trump told China,,No more free lunches that you got from the corrupt traitors in gov,,do I need to start naming them,,Feinstein, and Pelosi and Bidens will do for a start. How damn rich did they become being public servants,,career public servants,,I call them father muckers
        REMEMBER the ships Trump sent to NY and Cali,,where was the mass of sick people???? Ya some people do die from virus sickness every year, but you dont shut down the country for such a small percent of deaths, unless it is your goal to weaken America,, the traitors deserve GITMO, it has been enlarged to handle the domestic terrorists/traitors

        The PLANNEDdemic is much more deadly to Americans as a group, we depend on our system for the survival of us all, and they are trying to muzzle and choke our systems, this site is about survival, but when you look at being a survivalist, do we get busy living or just sit at home waiting on death and I dont have any bleach, maybe Hillary has a bit I can borrow,
        LIVE FREE OR DIE for your freedom,,slavery is not an option,,
        Iamstill the other brother Darrell, just a hick from the sticks

      • “what the deaths are from,China virus alone or people who had bad health to start with and any sickness would send them to meet our maker”

        thats actually one of the reasons I am so anxious to get things settled here.. I know if that dam thing gets in our home it will take everyone out..
        I have a brand new ice cream maker I am dying to make ice cream in.. but was holding off until thanksgiving.. to do it..

    • I ran across a different kind of bitcoin projection:

      Just ’cause something worked for the last few years doesn’t mean it will work that way in the future. All crypto predictions are based on a linear projections of what is fundamentally a ponzi operation.

      But you say, how can you quote a prophetic dream in opposition to the track record of bitcoin? I say, why not ? A bitcoin nightmare has just as much basis in physical reality as a bitcoin linear projection.

      Ponzi’s continue until they spontaneously combust. It will happen; the how and when remains to be told.

      Three generations distant, elementary school kids will ponder: how could people be so gullible? At least tulips are pretty. Everytime I hear someone talking about tulip mania, I want to buy some; cryptos, not so much.

    • Michigan’s numbers are high because her highness dumped CV19 patients in nursing homes when we had an empty NatGuard field hospital waiting, and laid off doctors and nursing staff across the state.

      • Covid arrived officially in March 2020 – 7 Months

        You can do this – read slowly and carefully, please.

        14,436 / 7 =2062K


        16,132 / 7 = 2304K

        Can you see the path to the QUOTIENT ?

        That wasnt so hard….even for the Public School Edchamacated.

  6. “How can markets rise…”

    Not sure if you are kidding around or not.

    This is how I frame the markets rising during “bad layoff news”.

    Corporations are people so think of the Corporation as the head of household. One day the head of household wakes up and the family is dead.

    Capturing that moment, all the bills have been reduced.

    No more insurance premiums. The water usage drops. Money still in the piggy banks goes to the head of household. The food in the pantry only goes to one now. The head of household is flush.

  7. I had no idea 4.4k people were killed or hit in that incident. Musta been those bump stocks. Bump stocks… stocks bumping. Rhymes and reflections.

  8. The “Debate” was more in-line with classic Presidential Debates from the 1800s, which were essentially shouting matches between candidates, only brought to the public via newspaper accounts. The “Commission” is talking “kill switch” to shut Trump up, yet it was Biden who fired the first salvo (and we should ALL know by now, how Donald, from Queens, responds to an attack…)

    It was not civil, and not what we’re used to, but neither candidate was out of line. At least they didn’t get to make the wholesale sales pitches which are the stuff and “substance” of most Presidential “Debates…”

    • In other words no one has a program or even a vague idea of how the government or oval office works,in that respect they succeeded beyond all spectation’s, that both are retards that shouldn’t be permitted any where near a public office not even as dog catcher.

      As Haley said when interviewed on her meeting with Trump that he offered her any job she wanted even sec.of state, which she said she didn’t think she was qualified for,then he threw in being the U.S. spokesperson at the UN to which she replied what do they do,which puts her in the same league as the two clowns in the debate when it comes to the oval office what do they do.!!!

  9. George, make up your mind. So, you want more Keynesian deficit stimulus? Okay. But then stop bitching about watering down the value of the dollar.
    At least this time it’s deficit stimulus in bad times. Conservatives love that trick in good times, and then claim they are financial geniuses when the markets ‘magically’ go up. Goofy. Best, Mike.

    • One suspects points to ponder would be that the FDR New Deal actually built stuff, and the current tsunami of currency watering-down got traction a year ago during good times?

  10. Come November, most will be the walking dead. Obama’s The Promised Land comes out to remind us…. the OT G-d is an angry g-d and G-d giveth and taketh away. If one thinks this bullshit flu is real then wait til November when ….. your time has come.

  11. Other brother fella Darrel got some good points. Ronnie milsap great song . Any day now . Be a capitalist. Not whacked out commie pseudo Keynesian freaks . New pizza called the dalio

  12. well it was a good day and a bad day.. the good day.. I was able to get some grape concentrate and the sister to the teller at the bank had a basement full of wine bottles she wanted to get rid of.. needless to say I have a van load of bottles and some concentrate..
    the bad news..
    I didn’t want to have to buy any hardware for the cardboard cabinet.. the original thought was to use refrigerator magnets to hole the cooler door in place.. the door was just to heavy for those free fridge magnets.. so I bought a set of hinges for it.. oh well so much for not spending any money on this thing.. the other bad news is the three dollar hinges are now seven bucks and change.. I couldn’t believe how much they went up..
    but now I can mount the door and have it use the magnets as the catch..
    I will have to change the position of the handle to.. but that is all minor stuff.. its going to be nice now.. I can’t wait to show the pictures.. couldn’t get the grandson to finish the counter yet.. seems the kindergarten football team has their super bowl LOL LOL LOL so he has been busy with that.. LOL LOL a bunch of five year olds playing football.. its a hoot.. and of course they are all excited..
    I don’t know much about the debate don’t care.. the president this time around is just the scape goat for the stupid crap that congress does.. and if I want to watch dumb and dumber I will rent the movie on amazon prime..
    the interesting part is how long can they play number play.. jockey them around to make it look ok.. kiting the country and the world couldn’t be more interesting.. the snake has to show its ugly head eventually.. then it will get biblical.. “There will be weeping there, and gnashing of teeth, ” and if they take down the top twenty nine percent with their evil antics.. will there be people leaping from the tops of buildings..

  13. Since the Covid-19 virus has never been successfully isolated in any lab in the world, there simply is no proof that it exists. Isolation is defined as creating a pure extract of the virus with no other contaminants, then infecting an organism (human) with the virus and having them show symptoms of infection. BTW, the AIDS virus has never been isolated either. HIV is not AIDS BTW, they are Two separate issues.

    So anyone who speaks of this virus situation is either massively ignorant or guilty of “doublespeak.” And no death can honestly be attributed to ANY pathogen unless an evaluation of level of the pathogen (viral load) in the body of the dead person is done. And since the primary test for the detection of COVID is not a valid test as ascertained by the man who developed it, if one ponders this they can discover why David Icke stated, when one looks deeply behind the chaos and insanity around the plandemic, they will discover the evil genius driving it.

  14. And secondly, when interest rates go negative, which happened quite some time ago, because according to the Chapwood index of inflation the rate has been over 10% for the last 10 years. Any of you getting that kind of return on your money? If not, your real return has been negative.

    As I was saying, when interest rates go negative, what exists can no longer be called an “economic system.” So economic principles like supply and demand and markets no longer exist. So anyone who writes of “markets” or ROI or investment theory, etc. are either ignorant or again guilty of doublespeak.

    So you folks in the USA, so detached from reality it can be diagnosed as psychotic, need to grasp a few things, which if avoided will prove quite deadly.

    The masks, lockdowns and isolation are not about a virus.

    The riots, BLM, Antifa, etc are not about racism.

    The “elections” which are not elections by any definition of the word, are not about the future government of the country and have absolutely nothing to do with what is going to happen in the USA in the next 5 years. There are not two political parties in the USA, and the “presidential reality show” is simply a circus to divert your attention from the approaching demise of your culture and country.

    Americans are about to once again get the president they deserve. Stop and think about why I would say that about a nice person like you, and I do mean YOU! A choice between a raging narcissist and a senile demented senior citizen with a record of groping women and young girls.

    The plan, and there is a plan behind all of this whether you can see it or whether you believe there is a plan, is to reduce the population of the USA to 100 million by 2025. I have been watching it unfold, right on schedule, for the past 20 years, simply because I know how to look for it.

    Things are not the same everywhere, no matter what you are being told.

    That’s how it looks from Ecuador, 11 years out, where the cost of living is so low we are able to bank one of our social security checks every month.

  15. Gee, another black swan.

    {Suddenly hearing the sound of a bunker-buster being loosed from a Lancaster @ 16000ft…}

    • Were there ever any doubts Ray…
      Give it time and they will convince everyone so all believe theres nothing going on at all.

  16. “We ought to have at least kept funding for congress on hold until they do something right.”

    As if the pennies we give congress makes any difference at all.. the lobbyists would have just sent them out to the island getaway do the macarena again like they did the last time..

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