We begin this morning with “the Numbers” and acknowledge in passing that even in market declines at the Macro level, there are still noisy trading patterns that require the occasional rally in order to square the books of otherwise runaway trend traders.
Retail Sales First
OK, retail is up 1 percent. Meaningless to us.
Reason? Prices. If prices are up (see the Wednesday CPI data) of course Retail Sales will be up (somewhat) based on price inflation, and this has nothing to do with real unit volumes because those are actually down.
Latest rail figures this week show it:
“For the first 27 weeks of 2022, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 6,201,367 carloads, down 0.2 percent from the same point last year; and 7,108,876 intermodal units, down 6.1 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 27 weeks of 2022 was 13,310,243 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 3.5 percent compared to last year.”
Ding-ding-ding. BS Detector goes off on Retail. Next?
(NYFed) Empire State Outlook
Equally simple to grasp:
New orders increased marginally, and
shipments expanded significantly. Unfilled
orders edged lower for a second consecutive
month. Delivery times lengthened at the
slowest pace in months, and inventories
picked up. Labor market indicators pointed to
a solid increase in employment and a slightly
longer average workweek. While still elevated,
both the prices-paid and prices received
indexes moved significantly lower, pointing to
a deceleration in price increases. Firms turned
pessimistic about the six-month outlook, a
rare occurrence in the survey’s history.”
That’s maybe because I have been telling you for six months recession in Q3 – and since Q1 was down, we expect Q2 to be a stinker, too. Could just be a GOM (grouchy old man) effect, too though. Not ‘vestment advice, fo sho.
(BLS) Ex-Im Prices
What comes in:
The price index for U.S. imports advanced 0.2 percent in June following a 0.5-percent increase in May and a 0.4-percent rise in April. U.S. import prices last recorded a monthly decline in December 2021. The 1.2- percent advance for the second quarter of 2022 was the smallest 3-month increase since a 0.5-percent rise for the third quarter of 2021. Prices for U.S. imports advanced 10.7 percent over the past year.
And what goes out:
Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.7 percent in June, after advancing 2.9 percent the previous month. Higher nonagricultural prices in June more than offset lower agricultural prices. U.S. export prices increased 18.2 percent from June 2021 to June 2022.”
Of all of ’em this morning, this one is the most useless because again, it’s all about prices and the Dollar is strong against other currencies (esp. Euros) and this skews the report which, in turn, skews our thinking.
To wit, flying numbers Dow futures were up 150-ish. But our screaming pessimism insists we put this in context here:
Yes, we’re still on the road to Perdition. This just happens to be a burger break and pee stop along the way.
Gold is about to drop into the 1600’s and this should tell any thinking person that the Biden administration will suffer huge inflation ahead of mid-terms, but by the next presidential election in 2024 we will be back in deflationary depression (with a nod to Jas Jain’s modeling the way forward).
Maybe when Europe as collapsed by then, huh?
By now, everyone knows that pseudo-bank Celsius has gone BK. Embattled crypto lender Celsius files for bankruptcy protection. Also of note this morning, the BTC prices have almost touched 21,000.
Meanwhile, we don’t know what to make of Brazil’s Largest Private Bank To Offer Crypto Custody Services. Are they stupid and on some self-aggrandizing that will blow-up on them? Or financial geniuses? Too early to tell for sure, but my guess is the former.
Our whole complaint with Crypto-Corrupto comes down to two points. First, there is nothing of value inherent in the con. A unique number? Shit dude, we can duchy those out all day. Are you effin kidding me?
The second point (and remember where you heard this) is that IF CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL – CRYPTO-CORRUPTO mining is a crime against humanity. Pisses away power like there’s no tomorrow and gives made-up bullshit numbers in return. This as the world faces famine on the near-term horizon this winter.
Typical indicator (beyond mining using more power than the whole country of Iceland) include temporal topics like Texas’ fragile grid isn’t ready for crypto mining’s explosive growth.
Any idea how much food could be produced with the energy wasted by con artists making up their pseudo-revolutionary fairytale?
If you can imagine a Ponzi scheme where the world’s food potential is squandered to con the slow who can’t see a con.
Anyone who trades Crypto-Corrupto has placed greed over logic, as we net it out. They are tied-at the hip to the Old-World Order. And yes, things are changing. And yes, they need to own up to crimes against humanity.
Well, Except the Basics…
…like WAR, for example.
A little war-gore with your hashbrowns this morning? Russia-Ukraine war live: children among the dead as rescuers search for dozens missing in Vinnytsia attack.
Which has the expected impact on global food production getting real asWhich part of surprised are we supposed to act?
Meantime, we laughed at G20 finance leaders in Bali to tackle Ukraine, inflation. Sounds like a waste of jet fuel to us. Just a meeting to keep the international financial order manipulated. Warm up the Gulfstream?
Drippings and Drivel
Illiterate socialists in Congress who can’t Read the Constitution dept: UPDATE 1-U.S. House panel to weigh assault weapons ban next week. While we have the luxury of a 100-meter rifle (and pistol) range in the back yard – meaning we might have above-average gun awareness – you DO know that lefties who talk about assault weapons don’t know full-auto is one of the technical descriptors of an assault weapon?
Naw… reading is just too much work. While we are sympathetic to raising the semi-auto gun purchasing age to 21, we also could only countenance that if ALL constitutional rights and duties were tied to that age. No income tax till age 21, no military service, and so forth. Lefty’s are in the business of picking the Constitution apart – piece by piece – their idea of a New Deal.
Fewer parties to choose from this weekend: 1 million fentanyl pills linked to Sinaloa Cartel seized in record-breaking drug bust. This is ALL thanks to the commies in Congress and the revolutionaries on the Buy’ed ‘Em team. SINALOA drugs. From what Country – which is in a war with us and whose borders we can’t close – because they produce food, human trafficking and…hey! Does Hunter get stash from down there? See how the National Media can’t even HINT at possible Truth? Don’t ask, don’t tell news control, Am I right?
Biden’s Knee Pad tour update: Biden’s Saudi Lesson: The Only Path Runs Through M.B.S. President Shuffles so far on this trip has managed to make Israel’s war on Iran (next month) OUR WAR here in the U.S. as U.S., Israel sign joint pledge to deny Iran nuclear weaponry. Hmmm. Not the power of law because it’s not a treaty. Just more red flag-waving in front of the mullahs in Tehran. But, gee, just think about power to ration food and institute martial law that comes with radioactive fallout, huh? Bigger plans afoot here? Befrore elections, anyone?
Liberals Attacking Online Media. Oh, sure, we’re watching for DoJ expected to file antitrust lawsuit against Google in weeks. Please – again – refer to the mid-term elections calendar. Lawsuits like this could be used to influence Internet search, videos, and advertising impact ahead of an election. Which – in our view is the most likely motivator. Anyone with a LAMP stack and an ISP CAN compete with Google.
ATR/Woo: The “Gifting Cloud”
Justin, my UPS guy came by last night to drop off a delivery. Before the package came a vacuum sealed package of his “nuclear fuel rod cooling pond” jerky.
Then, when I open the package, it’s a dandy package of black tea courtesy of Bullish Bob Bagley Securities up in Dallas.
The day before, a package of hand-selected Hawaiian pepper seeds landed – from reader Hank out on the Big Island.
Same day that a book from reader Jester up in Canada showed up, too.
And last week, reader LOOB sent me a brand-new CPAP machine – which I transferred the registration on, only to find it was on a recall list, so now a WHOLE NEW Philips Respironics unit is enroute.
Not only that, but LOOB included two bottles of homemade wine. One of which is the Emperor’s wine recipe.
It’s not just readers who have suddenly jumped on this “be generous to George” meme. Amazon Prime Day netted us a new 5-speakerphone rig for my office line for just over a hundred bucks. And on eBay, an offer for a “near museum quality” vintage Hallicrafters SX 100 general coverage receiver was accepted for $250 including shipping. Normally a $450 – $500 range kind of thing.
Week before that, Chris McCleary (who runs the National Dream Center (.com) sent Elaine and me a new anti-aging protocol to test.
See what I mean? That’s a whole TON of generosity landing in a very small space – and in a very short time. And that, by God, is odd.
On my side, there’s been some giving back going on, too. So, it’s not like an unbalanced energy exchange:
Besides the “usual” for the kids I sent a long-time friend a couple of model ships to build. He’s been under huge stress – not a good thing.
Gave some power tools to my neighbor up the hill, too.
But here’s to woo-woo, though, I can’t remember a period where there has been this much generosity flowing around in my vicinity.
Not sure if it’s meaningful. But a couple of theories emerged from inspection.
One is that the whole Planet is in some kind of a “Giving Cloud” now. Not sure what causes it, but I worry it’s a last-minute expression of planetary love before the nukes come out.
Or, less gruesome (not to be confused with the governor of California, but that would be excusable) way, has the global consciousness awakened to the Christmas in July idea? I’ve had that percolating down at the subconscious level for a couple of months now. Looking for the DUDE to answer the question.
Here you loud and clear, buddy!
The Ultra Woo-Woo Part
As you know, I do a lot of “dream work.” What I have begun to notice is that when an exchange completes there is a very subtle (or sometimes not) relationship change.
For example, my friend who I sent the ship models to? His work showed up in dream content overnight. I’ll send him a note on this, but it’s likely just a mental construct/thought stub – which most dream content (but not ALL of it) is.
It’s almost like a completed exchange of goods is somehow like a “subconscious ticket” to a different level of connection with people.
Wonder if this is how shamanism functions? Comments on experiences and insights would be appreciated. For now, I’m somewhere between gently awed and seriously impressed with the grandeur of process.
Write when you get rich(er),