Since Urban is (nominally) a long wave economics site – which gets wildly off-track because its writer-in-chief is seriously ADHD – we will try to keep things in order by starting with some “economic reality.”
We continue to sit with market’s poised for a monstrous collapse in coming weeks based on our Aggregate Markets work. Yes, the Dow and the S&P are off into la-la land. But that’s because the Easy Money Fed has (essentially) made-up over $8.6 trillion dollars.
The arrival of Covid – impacting the U.S. – may be clearly seen now as a “context-changer” in exactly the same way that 9/11 terrorism back in 2001 provided a “credible scapegoat” to global economic collapse which was pending at the time.
Recall that gave the Bush administration virtually unlimited powers which were abused (Patriot Act still hasn’t been rescinded, so watch what you say on the phone or in emails) and it was used to run through the Middle East backwaters for 20-years killing people and breaking things.
Economically, terrorism did its job well. People forgot losing somewhere between $5 and $7-trillion in the Internet Bubble stock collapse. They encouraged the hiring of a third of a million people for TSA and Homeland Security (which didn’t previously exist). And your right to privacy “in your papers and affairs” was torched by Admiral John Poindexter with the Total Information Awareness (TIA) program. Which now gives the FedGov godlike powers (never abused, right?) to look at your digital footprint.
Renamed Terrorism Awareness Program this huge usurpation of rights has persisted and grown as a digital cancer ever since, This is not to critique the program because there really are people who hate America. It’s just that sometimes the cure is its own special kind of poison. Like Covid may be, but we’ll be along to that in a minute. Anyway…
That Was Then, This is Now
In place of 9/11 we have been suffering through the “government excess marketing” of Covid. Like 9/11, the megalomaniacs (TIA and its spawn) now want to lift up the skirts of ALL your personal finances. They Lied’em administration believes (based on delusional and anti-constitutional members of Congress prompting) that all financial transaction you make should be open to government surveillance.
This whole matter of listing skirts began with the Banking Secrecy Act. This summer, the CATO Institute did a dandy overview on things: A Reckoning Looms for America’s 50-Year Financial Surveillance System.
Each time we get a major panic (terrorism 2001, plandemic 2020) and the financial indo’s get bonused and bailed, government goes out front. Anti-freedom.
A number of readers have asked us “Why the full court press to get everyone vaccinated?” Ah…
You Don’t Want to Read
There have been some stories out of the UK this week being parroted on American websites following claims three weeks back that “New UK Health Security Agency report proves without a shadow of a doubt that the Covid-19 Vaccines do not work and have negative effectiveness as low as MINUS 66% – The Expose.” The source has been censored in America (by cooperative US media).
I got up this morning and tore into the underlying UK government reports and found the claims were a distant stretch. BUT, in looking over the UK underlying data sources (me and Excel are buds), I was able to finally figure out “the deal” with nearly-frantic government appeals, demands, and marginally legal “mandates” to get Vaxxed. Maybe.
The “Denominator Game”
Turns out when you compare week 32 of the UK weekly CV report with the week 41 report, there’s a big difference in vax “benefit” for certain age groups.
I have a strong personal interest in the 70-79 YO group (yep, that’d be US).
In Week 32 (Table B, page 16 of this PDF) The advantage of having a vax, versus not having full coverage was 10.5 deaths per hundred thousand and 56.9 deaths per 100,000 without being vaccinated.
More recently, we have the Week 41 report (Oct. 14) online here. Whipping down to page 16 and table B, the numbers are now 15.8 (*with) and 56.5 without.
The vaccine offered a 5.42 to 1 advantage if it was down to “To die, or not?” But then in Week 41 we see only a 3.58 to 1 answer to the same question.
Near as we can figure it, once the manic rush-to-jab slows, and the denominator in all these reports begins to settle out, we may see a real leveling of advantage in getting vaxxed.
Because if the denominator freezes and the cases keep mounting, people might figure this to be like those math tricks. As long as the denominator keeps growing the advantage may be claimed. Now toss in breakthrough cases? Yep, they’d have to hype fast. Do your own reading –
I think AIDS as an outcome is a real stretch. But at the Big Data level, vaxing and its success depends on growing the denominator. Which is how “breakthroughs” were likely there the whole time. Just covered up by the denominator game. Which in turn keeps this round of Everything’s a Business Model in play.
Mania Market and All-Time-Hype
Our unusual way of thinking around here is, admittedly, a little too real for those who are Truth Believers. (Government never lies, never abuses power, and have never read “10 Felonies a Day“)
We do, however apply this to the markets. While the Dow and S&P set records, the whole thing has been stopped by the NASDAQ pullback.
Our Aggregate based on early futures was 40,389.62 compared with the Labor Day weekend’s 40,475.85. On the close, not during jack-around hours. Unless we actually close well over the old high (and stay there a week) color us skeptical. In fact, a sell off today would actually validate this view:
If Taiwan blow or if La Palma scrubs off Florida (both of which are now interesting bets!) then the double top will break hard down. If peaches bloom again? Up, up, and Away. (Credit”: Fifth Dimension, 1968, was it? If you can remember the 60s you didn’t enjoy them!)
Early on, except for a sticky NASDAQ things were looking like Up might win.
With these kind of popularity numbers? Biden’s support is fading as concerns over the economy and Covid grow, CNBC survey finds. Could have asked around here and they would have been even worse.
PMI (purchasing managers) flash will be out shortly. Then, Jerome Powell speaks – which ought to be like a cross between reading a financial statement out loud and trying to give a good job-interview to Slo Buy’ed ’em. We’re confident thinking Powell is out. It would be a continuation of the idiot-in-chief’s marksmanship with his feet.
Speaking of Slo (*and feet)
I suggested that if Joe Biden had any stones, he would have brought the national guard out long-ago to fix the supply chain mess.
Therefore you couldn’t possibly have been surprised to read first that Biden said it and then second that the marionette strings were pulled as White House walks back Biden vow to use National Guard to untangle supply chains.
Dang, sand here I had my Carnac the Magnificent hat all ready…
BBS&B (Biden bluster, bullying, swoggles and bullshit) Biden says US will defend Taiwan if China attacks. Admiral Yuan says we’re quit on the loss of a carrier or two.
Oh, reader asked: What happened to that Russian and Chinese fleet that was seen near Taiwan during recent war games? Well…. We hear that this batch-of-sailors are still cruising – parts east of Japan. We’ll let you know if a fleet oiler or two shows up because that would dramatically increase Taiwan odds. No further position details and it’s a big ocean full of little places like Guam and bigger places like Oahu.
Long as we’re on war worries: NATO Presence In Ukraine “Already Underway” Poses “Real Threat” To Russia: Putin Reality check here? The recent spate of energy bumps has gotten long-term energy sources back front and center. Like the Dnieper-Donets basin in Ukraine.
Talk about a firefighter’s nightmare: 7 Dead in Fire at Russian Explosives Factory.
Back to tile work. Left thumb is numb from pushing things through the saw..
Write when you get rich.,