“The Moment Before Touch” is where markets, Life, and petty dictator mandates have us waking today. As the future of Taiwan continues sketchy and as (we pointed out on PN yesterday) the SoCal ports last month moved 6 PERCENT LESS CARGO than a year-ago. Evidence to our simple minds that shortages (like not really vaccines) are most likely a monetization because Everything’s a Business Model.
For a different view: Larry Kudlow: Economic message on supply chain is ‘vintage Jimmy Carter’. But with 6% less inbound, where’s the containers? Governor Gruesome owes answers.
There’s a lot to cover. But because I have another 70-pieces of tile to cut and install this morning, we’ll be (blessedly) brief. Maybe even cogent. (But don’t get Ure hopes up!)
The Forbes summary of Wednesday market action is a useful start: Dow Briefly Hits New All-Time High, While S&P 500 Nears Record.
The keyword du jour to track is “all-time-high” – please make a note of it.
As you know, I invented our multi-market Aggregate Index back in 2001 specifically because Wall Street lies bother us. Back then, markets made by the S&P 500 and the Dow 30 were hailed, even as $5-7 trillion worth of losses were eaten by internet speculators on the NASDAQ and pinks. We don’t need to be smacked twice.
In out work, the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ hit an Aggregate of 40,475.85 on September 3 (with markets closed on Sept. 6 for Labor Day). The Dow was
35,369.09, while the S&P notched 4,535.43 and the NASDAQ posted 15,363.52
At the close Wednesday, we hit 40,244.34 on the Aggregate – still more than 200 points shy of a genuine break higher. As the Forbes coverage implies, the Dow did well: 35,609.34. But within 3/4’s of a point, we’d peg the S&P’s 4,536.19 effectively as a “double-top.” What keeps us from Truth Believer status is the NADSAQ (closing at 15,121.68 – almost 242 points shy of a record.
There’s another thing most investors won’t think about: How much money those “super stock traders with better insights than the public” over at the Fed have been goosing the markets. We KNOW from H.6 Money Stocks data that the monetary base was puffed up by more than 31 percent over the past year. So the short method calculation is that at the present rate of monetary puffery, the Aggregate could climb (31/12= 2.58% per month) substantially and, on an inflation-adjusted basis, still be lower on a PPP (purchasing power parity) basis.
Important to know: that’s not the right math formula, I just use it as a mental short-cut do estimate in my head, so don’t be misled. The Actual year on year was around 31.47% which would back the monthly gain to 2.3058% but we choose speed over decimal places for most decisions…
How is Our Wave Count?
Ah – this is what it comes down to: Are we going to break higher – in which case a fifth wave is likely underway and inflation-hedge commodities like metals and oil should dominate for a year? OR, are we “2 and done with a double top?”
With a 99.43% retrace, we are in “Stand by for things to get interesting!”
Let’s go to some data…
U.I. Claim Filers
Apologists for the Mandator Administration (I can’t find mandate in the Constitution, so shows you how out of touch we are around here) will point to the low UI claims as evidence “things are getting better.”
In reality, the new filers are like someone walking around (without resupply) in Death Valley. Over time, yes, they will run out of water. And this is what happens in this number: People have used ’em up.
Yep – running out of eligible people who can file.
Still, the news is not ALL bad…just mostly so. Although, just out is the Philly Fed report which tells us…
“The diffusion index for current general activity rose 11 points to 30.7 this month. The current shipments index also rose 11 points, to 29.9 in September. More than 34 percent of the firms reported increases in shipments this month, while only 4 percent reported decreases. The index for new orders fell 7 points to a reading of 15.9. Nearly 31 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders this month, while 15 percent reported decreases.”
T0morrow we get a PMI number mid-morning and then Fed Trader Boss J Powell will tell congress how great and marvelous this all is. But, since he’s up for a reappointment, I wouldn’t trust anything he asserts in what will be – effectively – a job interview. Buy’ed ’em wants higher and hype and Powell’s likely to keep economic reality out off sheep herd view (yet again).
Remember, he hid the prompt reporting of M2 Money stocks, which thinking people use as a gauge of inflation and PPP spending levels. Hiding the data is crooked and it’s been the gold standard is screwing small investors since Alan Greedspan (sic) hid M3. Facts are just too dangerous when you’re blowing up bubbles and calling it progress.
After the Data
Dow futures were down more than a hundred, S&P down over a dozen at click-time. Kinda hard, when Japan took a 1.87 percent hit to the Nikkei last night, and with Europe showing solid losses, for a lot of upside traction to be believable. Slo Joe Print ‘Mo…
Yes, with Powell’s job interview tomorrow and clouds over the Fed inside traders, they need to jack it all up via proxies, so this should be entertaining as hell.
Got a Job? Ready for Sex?
You’re about to get screwed. Royal: See total US payroll employment data in the longer-view than just (bullshit midst of plandemic) comparisons:
Biden BOHICA. (Don’t blame us, we didn’t…uh…you know…)
Thus, your Sex Ed Curriculum today includes Biden emissions pledge hanging by a thread after Manchin’s climate change budget cut. Too bad Manchin denies plans to swing republican – I don’t mind moderate republicans [cause we are them).
Further study in sex ed (to come…er…cum…er which is it?) in Senate Minority Leader McConnell on the Budget and Law Enforcement and this is so laughably OBVIOUS: NH Primary Source: Pro-Republican pollster finds NH voters oppose Biden budget reconciliation plan. Make up money, grab ankles, capisce?
Jim Cramer is worried about inflation: Jim Cramer Says Inflation ‘Much Worse Than We Thought’.
What’s this we shit, cowboy? We’ve been telling you deflation of Weimar for years and with a 32% rate of money print, WTF didja ‘spect? Paid-for real estate, some metals squirrelled away… (Remember 2004 when we told you to buy silver at $6.96 an ounce ‘cuz government was crooking the money?) Alas, let those who have ears…
The good news? With Bitcoin hitting record highs more than one was being born every minute. Slow Joe doesn’t need to know how much you spend on hash, but if you have a wallet, all THAT should be subject to reporting/audit. Just like if you have rental income or have 20 pages of stock trades to file…
While the Bile Settles
See the DRUDGE REPORT 2022® over here and see 3-Joe vax shot pictures. How many can this man take? (We’re still at zero. Waiting on the conventional vaccine from Baylor here in Texas. But that will be a while since it’s not a freakin corporate money-bag scam!)
Climate Hysteria: Oooh boy: 8 feet of snow? Storm train could deal deathblow to wildfire season. Weather does average kiddies. Take with a side of the NY Times asking “How Did California’s Drought Get So Bad?” Just a wild ass guess on our part, but maybe it didn’t rain enough? Maybe? Huh?
Global Government’s War of Humans: Let’s let people die first. EU Delays Russian Sputnik V Vaccine Approval Until 2022. The corporate fix is everywhere. Whee! Hit the hysteria button, would yah? The delta variant has a mutation that’s worrying experts: Here’s what we know so far…
Meantime in the communist worker’s paradise (Seattle) Seattle Police, Firefighters Fired Over Vaccine Mandate Turn in Their Boots in Protest, reports Newsweek.
We’ll save the discussion of Taiwan and the Sino Russian fleet moves out east of Japan for tomorrow morning. But things are positioning to try and strong arm the US into a non-response if they go for Taiwan shortly.
Now, speaking of going…of to the chow line (never understood how the cat gets to eat first!). Then miles of tiles, or so it seems…
Write when you get rich,