Real Estate Trends

In our usual look-ahead way, we assess a couple of trends you may be able to use to advantage in coming years.  Both having to do with real estate.

In addition to this morning’s selection of news (and fresh international trade results) we are also throwing a party as the Aggregate Index has (finally!) peeked above the old all-time high set February 12th.

We also won’t miss a few data points about war in the wings.

Normal coffee loading should suffice, though.  Spring and the season of optimism is here and now.

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47 thoughts on “Real Estate Trends”

  1. “the mortgages of farmers”

    We have to consider in the olden days, pre-depression, many “farmers” were squatters.

    From ‘Grapes:

    “Representatives of the company come to tell the tenants that they must get off the land. Sharecropping is no longer profitable, so the bank has bought the land to farm. The men representing the company are mean or nice or cold because they are ashamed of what they are doing, yet none take responsibility for their actions. It is not their fault, but the fault of the Bank, and the Bank is not a person. The squatters try to bargain, offering to rotate crops or to take a smaller share, but the bank men are not interested. The tenants argue that the land belongs to them because their families have lived and died on it, but the bank men only reply, “I’m sorry.”

    The next day, a tractor arrives, bulldozing whatever is in its path. Disconnected from the land on which he works, the driver is not a living man, but an extension of the tractor. The tenants recognize him as the son of a neighbor and question why he would help to put his neighbors out of their homes. He replies that he has his own family to take care of, and the bank will pay him three dollars a day, every day. The tenant wants to know whom he should kill to get his land back, but there is no person he can fight. While the tenant tries to figure out what to do, the tractor bites into the corner of his house.”

    If you have a couple of hours:

    The Grapes of Wrath (1940)

    https://www.freegreatmovies.com/Free-Movie/The-Grapes-of-Wrath/2809

    Reply
      • Because it is not true. This beautiful earth, that rejuvenates, and reproduces has plenty for all. It is the criminal elite that cause the famines, culling of humans and other creatures, and destruction.

  2. “lowest-cost places to retire”

    West Virginia is changing their tax law. I don’t know how much it will help them.

    “West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice introduced a fourth plan on Monday in his quest to eliminate the state personal income tax.

    He has called it “Justice 4 All,” as the plan introduced during his income tax summit with legislative leaders looks to ensure no one is financially hurt by the proposal.

    The summit was announced on the heels of debate regarding West Virginia House Bill 3300, which is the House’s version of Justice’s plan to eliminate the state’s personal income tax.

    However, Justice’s original proposal and the new Senate version of this bill would raise a number of taxes to help make up the difference – meaning under those versions you would pay slightly more for goods and services out of the thousands of dollars you would save in income tax.”

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    • What is the date and source for this announcement? West Virginia has been slowly becoming a bedroom commute for folks working in Washington, D.C. It’s a beautiful state but still remote by mid-Atlantic standards. If the governor succeeds, the state will get a huge influx of Marylanders and Virginees with money crossing the rivers.

      Pittsburgh-Charleston-Hagerstown might become the next Research Triangle.

      Thanks!

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    • Since the greenies canceled coal, there’s a ton of out of work Americans in WV. Its painful to watch, I have frequented many areas in WV, some appear on tee vee from time to time. I wont elaborate furtther, only to say in closing, that its a shame to see places in America that are as impoverished as all those other countries that the pols and banksters are sending taxpayer money to. Makes one wonder why?

      Reply
    • Any income tax other than a regressive one has a built in disincentive to work at the point where you feel you’re working for less than your time is worth(after taxes). For most people, the marginal value of a dollar decreases with increasing net worth.

      Income taxes also have a high paperwork overhead! In most cases, an accountant is necessary to not only prepare acceptable documents, but to interface with the authorities when necessary. Any reduction in the emotional and time loading of confessor style taxes will help all parties.

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  3. Good morning Sir. Sorry about the late call last night. I had just dropped off my daughter and was going to see if my buddy Gary wanted to go fishing for the even bite. Lol.

    Ok, I’m ready to do this. Make that commitment. I’m going to rearrange my website, make it a little more easy to navigate, places podcast section and post all my podcasts in that section. Make a section dedicated to links to purchase books, and reports, donate and pin that to the top of the page. And a section for written blogs.

    I have my first interview lined up to do Saturday afternoon with my good friend Asta. A Lithuania Princess who lives just outside of London. Very very gifted lady and very beautiful. she is excited to be on the show. Once I can figure out what to name the podcast. Now that I have the MP4 file figured out. All podcasts will be unedited and raw. Real as you can get.

    And I have a few other things to get done organizing, report card, try to do a podcast today, and get laundry done. Early bird gets the worm. Up at 4am. In the gym by 515, and just got home. Quick shower and then it’s time to get busy on better organising the site.

    Have a few other feelers out there for interviews. One of my good friends Diana in Poland would be a good one to get her perspective on Russia and the Ukraine, the Vaccine and Covid life in Poland. Not some paid government propaganda person. A real life middle class polish woman, who works hard and raised her kids by herself.

    And see If I can talk one of my former PGA masters into doing an interview.

    Real Talk. Thanks again for all the help. Time for Action.

    Reply
  4. I heard an interview with the owner of this site and stayed up most of the night to read his free book, which is mostly pictures and ties a bunch of the conspiracies together: https://www.theorionlines.com/ For Coast fans: Soylent green is people!

    Reply
  5. Yo Treebeard,

    me thinks Ure real estate plans are lil late, kinda like Ure cyrpto views..

    Ureself explained the magic effects of low rates and high inflation for home price appreciation on these very pages.. sage advice that…

    Real estate here in NE is hotter than VP harris bicycle, like homes in the city are only lasting 2-3 days if in half decent shape.
    Good school district – award winning STEM school/state champ level athletic programs = bidding wars – no shit.
    coot gets multiple offers every week from interested buyers/agents – they are resorting to cold calling on homes and leaving notes/cardsbehind.

    Of course this give rise to Mericans having their biggest financial asset being their home, leaving them exposed to the scourge of asset managers worldwide – lack of portfolio diversification..R U “homegamers” Diversified ?

    Really ? Got any Ivermectin laying around the house ?
    http://www.myfreedoctor.com – might be place to find, Petsmart, zon..

    Know what Ure D3 serum blood level R ? Get tested – duh-ooh. Wait what U get/got tested for covert19 already ?- what exactly did they test? why?

    Over 90% of ALL ICU patients deficient in D3 -covert19 weak against D3

    No cold & flu season =myth, only low D3 season – this is why Scandinavian countries test their populations TWICE a year for serum blood levels of D3.

    We can forget War with Russia, Iran..
    -they got alien Keshe tech..remember what happened to the USS Donald Cook, Aegis destroyer completely disabled by 1 lonely Russian fighter jet, who subsequently made bombing runs on the cooked crew for 15 minutes – many of that crew resigned upon return to homeport they were so f-ed up by experience
    – RQ 170 “untouchable” Sentinal Drone dropped in Iran with same “tech”. Wonder how long retro fitting all of our ships & planes will take with old ppi radr tech (antennas) will take ?

    You dont suppose the Iranians found/uncovered a long buried space craft under the desert sands of Iran ?? One of the several hundred massive spacecraft buried 1000’s of feet beneath the sands of time…Further sharing said long buried spacecraft & associated tech with their friends in Mother RUSSIA??? nahhhh moar conspiracy bs..
    Got any 1000 lbs Silber Bars ? Neither does rothchild controlled Perth Mint, as they just fullfilled cust. request for physical from un-allocated accounts with Chinese minted 1000 lbs bars..hahahaha sure and there solid silver too, suuuure
    and the candy chicken bunny lips are moving – but aint no one cant hear what the humanbean is saying…?

    Reply
    • Don’t get sick or injured, a weakened immune system equals co morbidity. Brilliant plan. Discover CRISPR and you have the tools to cure all disease. Except, when developing something that tips the birth death model to the reduction side of the equation? That is not so helpful to us normies.

      Reply
  6. Iowa?

    Cold Weather with a lack of an Ocean or Mountains seems to keep away the vast majority of “Relocators” and Iowa has neither of those AND gets COLD in the winter time (though Warren Buffet actually lives NORTH of Iowa so it can’t be North Pole cold) “Oh my GOD!!” say those from the populous parts of California, all of Texas, Georgia, Florida and a half dozen other states if they are asked to move to such a God Foresaken place as Iowa!!.

    For me … if the COLD winters and having NO mountains or oceans keeps the masses of those who have ruined California and are now ruining Texas away then I am all in favor of COLD winters and having no mountains or oceans! Beside I don’t like lots of bugs … and a good hard winter seems to get rid of most of the ground dwelling type of bugs, though if there is lots of water around the mosquitoes don’t seem to be bothered. In that regards remember the State Bird of Minnesota is apparently the Mosquito, and there are so many and they are so big up there that it is rumored that they were the cause of multiple Yugos disappearing in the summertime back when people actually bought and drove those micro sized cars.

    Now as for moving to and living in Texas … ever try walking a block in downtown Houston mid day during August? The blowing winds on Michigan Avenue in downtown Chicago during a mid January blizzard are a much better experience!! I have been to Texas enough to know that Houston is not the entire state, but from what I have experienced EVERYWHERE in Texas gets to just a few degrees cooler than HELL itself in the summertime, and living right next to HELL is not my idea of an ideal living location. What are those Californian transplants thinking?

    Nope. I’ll stay up here in a fly over place that all the “in crowd” thinks is a terrible place to live. AND … everytime I run into one of those types I will intentionally reinforce the idea in their mind that where I live is a TERRIBLE place to live, just so they don’t move in next door.

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  7. “FOOD is China’s Achilles heel when it comes to a potential major war. China NEEDS to import food (at least at the moment) and a major War, unless swift, “could” cut that ability to import the quantities that they need to import so as to keep their population fed.”

    A friend of mines company was almost destroyed because China bought a lot of the larger grain export companies..
    https://karnasena.com/china-won-world-war-with-economic-biowarfare
    “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting,” wrote the legendary Chinese strategist Sun Tzu 2,500 years ago.”
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/here-chinas-plan-crush-america-war-its-not-what-you-think-24427

    I personally think that the minute we decided to push industries and other companies to move outside our borders.. that was the worst mistake ever made.. first off we became a slave nation.. dumbing down our youth and forcing people to work longer hours and eliminate adult supervision of our youth. Leaving their upbringing to daycares.. television and gaming consoles..
    that is also a double edged sword to.. china is dependent on us for our consumption.. our military might is dependent on the chinese industrial complex for just about everything.. its hard to find a product that hasn’t been produced there..
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/aug/14/chinas-billion-dollar-pig-plan-met-with-loathing-by-argentinians
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/with-rising-population-and-declining-arable-land-china-may-be-staring-at-a-major-food-crisis/articleshow/77942570.cms
    on top of their search for farmland.. and crop production.. the Earths population has outgrown food production.. almost ten to one.. all while we continue to consume tillable rich farmland for growth of cities and suburban development … Even though China is one of the worlds most aggressive green scaping growth.
    at some point in time..

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  8. “Food also a hot topic in Russia as Russia’s Central Bank Demands End to Food Price Caps”

    Its not a secret that the Democrats think they can spend their way back up the ladder of prosperity… and as long as the world sees the dollar bill as the currency to cherish.. they maybe can.. but what do you do about prices..
    the thought of the small increase in the electric bill.. it wasn’t much.. back when I worked next to the utility companies shop.. and we played cards every day.. they made fifteen an hour.. the average wage was about five.. but the other day I was visiting with a couple of linemen and I asked.. so what is starting wage nowdays.. I was shocked.. ( they deserve that wage because of the hazard.. but hey.. ) the growth was so much greater than that of the mainstream hourly wages.. so what do you do.. every one should have gotten a nickle wage in crease just for the increase in utilities.. but follow that chain out and the nickle from one would mean an increase for everyone..
    Could they actually control the increases that are going to have to be made and still keep their companies solvent by putting Price Caps and stop the deregulation of essentials..
    https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2015/08/16/whats-driving-american-firms-overseas
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/corporations-go-overseas-avoid-u-s-taxes
    How can you raise taxes if you don’t tax incoming goods and services I still don’t understand what the JB administration has in mind.. they are pushing industry to move further away.. and unless the companies making money in the Consumption States of America pay taxes on the goods bought and sold here the whole thing has to implode.. but if they limit price growth could the company still make enough to survive.. I think of things I buy at the store then buy from the firms outside the USA.. the price difference is tremendous.. ..

    Reply
    • The Buy’ed people don’t have a coherent answer for this kind of common sense question. Don’t even waste time wondering. Bankrupt pols are in it for (hint) bankrupt pols…

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  9. I love this news…. once you’ve hit the economic death spiral it is hard to pull out of the spin been there done that.. now we have the thirty percent of the population facing eviction.. nothing new.. but hey lets just extend it out.. hopefully they will make enough money to get back that six month clump of cash.. (being serious it won’t happen… not unless someone is shoving it in their pockets.. just check out SanFran and the young execs living in cars and cardboard boxes.. ) so lets just push that date out a few months…
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/ban-renter-evictions-covid-19-pandemic-extended-76747843

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  10. If you use Robert Schiller (the same monthly real estate guy prices)housing prices adjusted for inflation for the past one hundred years. We are currently over valued big time.

    He introduced the graph about 2004?. Between the years 1900-2000 the housing prices adjusted for inflation graph was always in the range from 80 to 120. In the early 2000 the graph went out of control. It peaked out at 200 around 2006. That meant the houses were 40% over valued adjusted for inflation than any time in United State history. Graph bottom around 2011 at 120. A forty percent drop. Actual prices in the United States went down 35% (would have been lower but Wall Street bought 275,000 homes.

    It is now 2021. The graphs is back around 185. Which means house are over value again by 35%. The interesting thing about the graph. During the depression it hit 80. Will prices in the next five year take a huge drop 50-60% if we go back to 100. The graph is on the web up to 2008. For recent data you have to go to his college website. But data is only listed until 2019. Be careful buying a hose today if mortgage rates go back to just 6%.

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  11. Decisions.
    I bought the mini grain puffer for the grandson and his new girlfriend that loves puffed wheat..
    This way she learns how it’s made and can visualize it.. but a full size unit is forty dollars more .has the blast shield and will do two boxes of cerial at a time.
    Should I add it to my cool tool collection.. or shouldn’t I. Lol lol

    Reply
    • Theres a reason why the wife wants me to have a chaperone when I go to lowes. Lol lol
      The thing would be like my nitro brew coffee pot lol sit on a shelf. When I’m gone everyone not knowing me would wonder.. what the hell is this… lol
      I am so tempted to hit the buy it button lol

      Reply
      • where would you even start.. I think I am going to get it.. then at least I would have one… even though puffed wheat and puffed rice isn’t a big issue.. just put it on a shelf..

  12. Kansas has large acreages of Black Walnut trees east of the Flint Hills, where the terrain is similar to the Ozark lands of Missouri. West of the Flint Hills you can see “forever”, and you can “count the trees”. It’s easy to paint Kansas with a broad brush and say that it just has boring flat land, but really “it ain’t so”.

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    • We flew our plane over a lot of it – and except for washes down around Dodge City, looked like a state siezed runway with a few rivers.
      Nice folks, good bars and casino in Dodge btw

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  13. Best place to retire? Radisson Saskatchewan Canada. I know because I’m the mayor LOL. Houses are cheap, yards are huge, service is high, and both cities on each side are 35 minutes on a double lane highway. Crime? We had a truck stolen once, it was my next door neighbors’s. The lady who came out of the bar before him felt she was too drunk to walk, so she took his home. Welcome to Canada!

    Reply
    • Tell us how we can export ourselves! I heard you gotta have 3 million and start a business that Canada deems essential. Got any ideas?

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  14. Two days ago, Philistine commented

    “Can someone explain the connection between vaccine and massive population culling? This sounds like paranoid, baseless, flat earth style stupidity.”

    I learned a long time ago not to argue with a member of the flat earth society. Can’t win. Facts don’t count. I keep hoping a couple of them will sail over the edge to prove their theory but nothing yet.

    Saw someone on TV this morning repeat the mantra of the virus just being a hoax, masks don’t work and lockdowns are useless. It was followed by an ER doctor in Toronto saying that his respirators were all in use, ER beds were full, patients are being flown to hospitals 100 miles away. He looked exhausted and beaten. He said his staff are getting sick from exhaustion and are quitting. The hospitals are collapsing. He pleaded with people to get the vaccination. He was in tears.

    Is there any useful argument remaining with the anti-vaxers, anti-maskers, conspiracy theorists?

    Reply
    • Yeah, getting the virus offers ACTUAL IMMUNITY, which none of the shots do, for starters. I could go on, but I just decided you are one of those flat earthers in disguise, why waste my time as you have not been paying attention. Go to Andy’s site and see what a Rabbi had to say.

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    • Well the virus is real, no doubt about that. Masks help. Social isolation helps. I boost my innate immune system with selenium, zinc, and quercetin. But I refuse to be a ‘test participant’ of the (non-vaccine) genetic experiment of DNA-altering mRNA injections! These things code your cells to produce the ‘spike protein’ from the virus, so the body will mount an immune reaction to it. Trouble is… once injected… there is no way to TURN OFF the mRNA coding. So your body is continuously producing this ‘auto immune disease’ that allegedly gives you immunity to ONE strain. I’ve lost the link, but yesterday I read where (New York, maybe?) 246 “fully vaccinated” people came down with Covid-19, and three died. So much for ‘vax immunity’. I will wait and see what the long term effects are. I might wait a long time. I’m not going to mess with my working DNA, thanks.

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    • I did actually correspond with an individual who had a moderate reaction to the Pfizer vaccine. First contact. He’s alive and back at work. Apparently his whole family took the vaccine, and he was the only one that had a problem.
      With regard to Dr. Fauci’s inability to comprehend the rapid decline of Covid cases in Texas , I am thinking that Occam has once again been kicked to the curb: maybe Texas medical personnel took the vaccine, as opposed to what has gone on in the blue states, and are no longer spreading the virus.
      I don’t see very many people wearing masks in public anymore in Texas. It isn’t masks in restaurants and stores keeping cases down.
      I personally think that UV light is a major factor. The skies are clear and the sun is bright here.
      Locally, the hospitals are shutting down the Covid isolation wards due to lack of interest.
      People do try their best to conspire, but it usually doesn’t do them any good.

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      • Or everyone’s made a bee line to the feed store and bought up all the Ivermectin like we did. There was a doctor crying in front of a Senate panel begging them to OK Ivermectin’s use on Covid patients because he was sick of seeing them die. Those he had treated with the anti-parasitic drug fared much better than with any other approved drug. Most mis-handled NON-emergency in World history.

  15. “This may account for China being well-behaved for now. But, will the Biden administration use the “food lever” effectively? ”

    The “food lever” doesn’t exist. China (and Brazil) own a huge majority of our pork production, and a slight majority of our poultry. The Chinese have not stopped purchasing packing plants, but they’ve started buying “labels” to go along with them. Most aware folks know “Smithfield” is ChiCom-owned. The reason I made my “Eckrich and Cook’s” comment last week is THEY, (and Emge, Rob’t Morrell, et.al.) are now ChiCom-owned. The Chinese are acquiring our pork, from sow to sow-belly, to maintain their domestic supply irrespective their local conditions. In a drawn-out war this is no big deal, because backed against a wall, even creepy Joe would nationalize ChiCom companies. In a Blitz-war though, were China to take Taiwan in a weekend, or even a week, the action would be done and over with before the molasses mavens in D.C. could do anything, so China’d get to keep selling us our own Smoky Links and bacon…

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  16. IMO “Business Insider” is full of ca-ca. I consider any place where milk is over $1.50/gal and eggs over 89¢/doz to be expensive. States aggregate prices. For instance, North Central Florida is a very cheap place to live. It is also not desirable, because of the local climate. The Central U.P. of Michigan is a very cheap place to live (if you can deal with snow @ 16′ on the level.) South Dakota and Idaho, cheap every place that’s more than 50 miles from a city, etc.

    What I would look for first is a means of escape (to Canada or to International waters) then go to COL, availability of construction assets (if’fn it costs 10k to truck or fly that excavator in, you’d better only need it once), and THEN, quality of neighbors, roads, social amenities, etc. That means, within 50 miles of the Atlantic or the Great Lakes, or within a tankful in Montana, the Dakotas, or Minnesota. Upstaters in Pennsylvania and New York (ex-Erie, Buffalo, and other big towns), all along the Seaway to Maine, tend to be good folks — bitter because the city-shitties run their States, but good nonetheless. Also there’s lots of Indians & Reservations sprinkled from the Black Hills to Maine and the American Indian, of any Tribe, like the Amish, are damn’ fine folk and always ready to lend a hand, as long as you never insult or talk down to them.

    If medical issues or long-term treatment are a concern, the Lake Erie shore from Mentor to Conneaut Ohio puts you an ambulance ride away from the finest cardiac, cancer, orthopedic, ophthalmologic, and infectious disease hospital in the world (and a leisure car ride away from the amazing wineries in upstate PA and NY)…

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    • The Amish are awesome.. the colonies are beautiful.. the people are the best.. when the shtf.. they are the ones that will survive IMHO..
      So will a lot of the more organized Indian reservations.. they have had to do with what they have for years..
      those of us that are accustomed to the aspects of life that we take for granted won’t..
      many are dependent.. (me included) with the digital number.. or cartoon coin..
      We depend on going to the store and just putting it in the basket.. rather than making it ourselves.. or doing without

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      • I’m not sure the Amish will.

        They are a “peaceful at all costs” and “turn the other cheek” religious society, like the Quakers. My family learned the hard way that a savage doesn’t care how peaceful you are. “Peaceful” just makes his(her) job (of rape, pillage, plunder, murder, or usually several of the aforementioned) easier. The reason we became “Quakers with guns” is because my ancestors figured out they couldn’t be fruitful and multiply, if they were all dead.

        The Amish haven’t figured this out.

        The ones I know, the ones with whom I’m acquainted — I fear for their lives if the SHTF, because they’ll turn the other cheek until it’s cold, pressing into the ground. They, the Old Order Mennonites, and a few successful homesteaders and indigenous people are the ONLY ONES in North America who really, truly, know how to survive in a world without machines and computers. Their knowledge is more valuable than their livestock and garden, and that knowledge is what will cease, should their farms be pillaged…

      • I have a feeling that YOU and your family will do just fine, based on your comments. You’ve got FAMILY, and Friends, and they have YOU!!! Just Saying.

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