To get “out of the Rat Race” you don’t have to “kill all the rats.” You just have to out-think them. We’ll run down the job cut data and more, in a sec. but it’s important to start with the big contexts and then gnaw our way toward the cheese.
You see, most people don’t spend as much time studying their problems in life. Instead, we are programmed – from the ground up – to be reactive.
What causes me to begin with the “Get Out of the Rat Race!” discussion?
Planet of the Rats
First, “Successful Geezerhood” is the focus piece in Peoplenomics Saturday.
Second, that was spurred by the shocking discovery when I ran our year-on-year net worth Wednesday and discovered it had gone up more than half-way to six-figures for the year. Paper? Sure. But, it still spends. Now, if we could just find an open casino that’s people-free…
Third, this was because I plan to live a successful “Geezerhood” (with my ex-bunny “geezer-pleaser”) for years to come.
Two Words About Rats
The Fed is (superficially) supposed to be maximizing growth and full employment. This is the so-called “dual mandate.”
It’s also either a) a bald-faced lie or b) a horrific failure.
Because we have been in both growth collapse and employment collapse since we began reporting on CV-19 back in January. I don’t put them on the free site here anymore because people would freak out. Half past Grimm.
Which – in turn – is because a) there’s no vaccine that works, b) doctors are going to court to overturn official gag efforts on cheap solutions, and c) Trump opened his mouth instead of letting medicine work the problem.
As a result, he’s well on his way to “talking himself out of a job” – which fits one of the late Pappy Ure’s greatest pearls of wisdom:
“Your mouth will generally get you into more trouble than it will ever get you out of.”
Yea, verily, 71+ years of close observation has confirmed this statistical Truth. (We assume you know Truth is nothing more than the highest-available statistical correlation, right? It’s all axiom and rule scoring. “The Truth” is never absolute – which explains why lawyers behave as they do. But that’s a discussion for another morning…)
Rats In Motion
The Fed Rats (not to be confused with Fed Rates) don’t have many options. They don’t own factories, so they can’t go out and hire people. Instead, they CAN (and do) Make Up Money. How Much?
February 19th, our Aggregate Index hit its previous all-time high. M2 was pegged at $15.447 trillion. In the weekly report last week, M2 had blazed ahead to $18.318 trillion. That’s only 18.6% (rounded), but, you can see we’re only 6-months into the American Slow-Motion Train Wreck. ASMTW.
If the ASMTW continues to confuse and confound, the reason is three-fold.
- The president didn’t articulate what was coming well. (See “Open mouth, insert foot.”).
- The Fed couldn’t reduce economic gobbledygook to consumables fit for IQ 95 Americans.
- And the Nasty Nancy and the shift-show in Congress kept Trump off focus and spending like crazy.
We can address the issue of “Voting all the bastards out” in what…89-days? But, we have to tunnel through to understanding the unsolvable problem:
The Silence of the Rats
All you need to do is look at long-term monetary inflation – which the Fed doesn’t like to do – because it’s a national embarrassment. “How so?” Ure thinking…
In 1913 you could get a nice steak dinner for (then backed by silver) ONE U.S. Dollar.
Today, same dinner, but paid for with Feral Reserve Notes and back by nothing more solid than political speechmaking, will cost about $27-FRNs.
Regression time kids? (Know how to use the “solve-for” function in Excel?
I haven’t run it for several years, but the CAIR *(compound annual interest rate) was about 3.4 percent, or so. Based on the folks up at Neel Kashkari’s shop, the Minneapolis Fed.
On that site, if you put $1.00 and set the start date to 1913, you will see the 2019 dollars came out to $25.88. But, it doesn’t stop there, even though this ugly all by itself reveals the U.S. dollar has held-on to only 3.864-percent of its 1913 purchasing power. The rest? Gone with inflation/interest.
Actually, it gets worse. I reckon real inflation this year could come in upwards of 3-1/2%. Which would put the real 1913 costs in today’s “dollars” at 26.786. And that, dear rat lover means only 3.73% of purchasing power is left vis-à-vis 1913.
Where is the Honest Rat?
If the Fed were really honest about looking out for IQ-95 America, they would teach the following curriculum every time the Fed Boss opens his mouth (boca de raton, right?):
- “We have to make up money because your Congress is spending more than we make as a country.”
- “This means long-term inflation is a GIVEN.”
- “To get rich, leverage inflation.
- “Buy things that will go up in Value.” Like Housing, collectibles, precious metals and gems…..”
- “WARNING: the crooks in Congress will try to tax away you’re gains because everyone in Washington is literally on the Take.”
- “THEY TAKE FROM YOU.”
- “You never get what you paid for. Everyone takes handling charges.”
- “(OK, and we rent-back your money, but that’s a kind of Jekyll Island problem… not open to discussion. Notice how it all worked out for Kennedy? Of course that’s conspiracy theory…or is it?“)
All over the place.
Droppings of interest rates.
Droppings of Made Up Money (under the guise of commie-style “modern monetary theory” which works only if there are no externalities like competing currencies which are about to knock off the Buck) directly into bonds.
And dropping money (through proxies) into markets with what amounts to “free money for the big boyz.”
And the amount of the stimulus (for non-rats) so far? A pittance.
So, where’s our next pile of dough? The Big Orange Rat (BOR) is trying to get some cheese out to his base, as we read in “COVID-19 Unemployment Benefits: Donald Trump Says He’s Considering Executive Action On Extension, Other Relief If No Deal Reached With Democrats.”
But, Nancy Old Rat (NOR) has been clear for several weeks (showing she can read an election calendar) that “Pelosi Rejects Short-Term Extension of Unemployment Benefits, Again.”
Salon seems to see how political cheese works in “Trump has promised to stop evictions — but the GOP has a powerful incentive not to…” Another “elections are coming” trap. Where the rats battle to their political deaths to hold whatever untenable ground they started from.
Oh RATS! Job Cuts
Now we’re into The Moment: From Challenger, Gray & Christmas the monthly “rat present.”
“Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers jumped in July to 262,649, the third-largest monthly total ever behind April’s 671,129 and May’s 397,016, according to a monthly report released Thursday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.”
You remember from “Rat Training 101” this part, right?
“Moreover, the genus Market Rat is unpredictable when their food supply of “free money” is challenged. Sometimes they will “buy the rumor and sell the news” while other times they will “sell the rumor and BUY the news…”
We amateur rodentologists sensed the rats were about to turn when the market ran up on air and bullshit on Wednesday. Yeah, rats eat that up!
Despite futures prices being down 100 before the open, market rats are unpredictable. Despite disappearing jobs and soaring real prices, they ran the Dow positive before the open.
Rats on crack, bubba. Let’s talk about why the turnaround:
Oh RATS 2: New Unemployment Claims
Better than expected: “In the week ending August 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,186,000, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
CNBC cheered the rats on with Stock futures trim losses after better-than-expected jobless claims data.” Go rats!
Tomorrow’s statistical infestation will be the federal job report. As always, we recommend looking at the one Big Number that matters: Total Number of People actually working.
Because that’s who pays the taxes and those taxes ought to pay down the deficit. But, in reality won’t until we elect more Cats to Office. And get stronger Cats to take on the millions of Rats in the District of Cheese.
Ratus Americanus is not alone: Lots of other Rat News to consider.
For example in Scotland, politics and rats are a savory blend as revealed in OAP: ‘I’ll sue the council over rats in my house’. Rats are the same, worldwide.
Climate Change and Rats? Why, soitenly. as Larry, Mo, and Curly would put it. In New Zealand, no less. “More rats, hungry Kiwi: How DOC plans to prepare native species for climate change.”
Rats have bigger problems, than just hanging on in D.C. “Study finds Perth’s urban reptiles are accumulating toxic levels of rat poison.”
Fortunately, in our world of runaway Political Correctness (top of the Piped Piper’s tunes list) even rats have role models: Brooks Koepka: The ‘gym rat’ challenging the view that golfers ‘aren’t that athletic in type’. (You remember Elaine was something of a gym rat, right?)
And you know Rats are going to be the NBT ( next big thing) when Disney rolls with Take a ride on ‘Ratatouille’ at Disneyland Paris and see a ‘rat’s eye view’.
Got a PlayStation? Not bugs in software…no sir: Rats! Mad Rat Dead demo now available in Japan.
Even prestigious Nature is all over Rats, lately. See “Analysis of platelets from a diet-induced obesity rat model” and “Cognitive function and brain plasticity in a rat model of shift work” for starters.
Suffer’n Suriphobia, Rat Man
Be sure to share with your murophobic friends. Only takes a mouse.
I could go on forever…aided by my mouse. But Zeus the Cat reminds not to obsess, though it’s easy in such a target-rich nest.
“I need some chow or you need some D-Con, Fatso.”
“Shut your trap…you furry feline. A word to the bunny-gym rat hybrid and you’ll starve.”
“You too, tubby.”
OK…everyone’s got leverage. Go be a “good little gerbil” and get on the Big Wheel of Work.
We’re all caged.
Write when you get rich (or just get really sick of puns),