Just out from the Labor Department:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In July, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care.”
Total Number of people working: Up 1.3 million for the month. But, year on year still down at 91.22% of 2019 employment levels.
But is it really that good? Since in the CES Birth-Death Model we see 241,000 jobs were estimated into existence.
Here’s the real disconnect for us:
- Almost 9% fewer Americans are working.
- Last year on this date our Aggregate stock index was 24,441.91.
- Thursday’s close was 30,005.27
- So the market is up? 22.7%!
Reason? We look at the Fed Money Stocks as the culprit:
July 2019 the Fed reports M2 supplies of 14.8621-trillion dollars. In the most recent report? 18.2864 trillion is sloshing around. 23% more money! Whee!
We will note (logically) that if the market is up 22.7% and the M2 money stocks are up 23% there is literally no real growth. And 9% fewer people working.
Are we having fun, yet?
International trade data at 10 Eastern and 3 PM this afternoon the Fed’s consumer debt report. That could move things.
After the job numbers, the Dow futures were only down 32 and trying to turn up.
More free money! Whee!
My friend Gaye Levy (https://strategiclivingblog.com) and I were talking Thursday about the next book we’re working on. (Out just after the election, since that will be the “tone setter” for which forks this ongoing collapse takes…)
She slipped and said “O…Biden...” while we were dissecting the political realms. I loved it….
Use it freely. OBiden. Because if Biden gets in, it will be like the Obama years.
Trumpt? Or Choreography?
The American Lefticy is retweeting the hell out of the goings on in NY where a “Judge [ruled]: Trump Rape Accuser Can Go Ahead With Defamation Suit.”
What were we talking about Thursday? Trump talking himself out of a job. Open mouth, insert…. On the other hand?
Details and Contexts Matter
While Trump’s accuser is identified in many reports as a “democrat,” we always wonder to what degree when a political afilliation is claimed. Since we found this on OpenSecrets.org, we’d (irresponsibly speculate) that the accuser as a “serious democrat.” And you know what Emily’s List is about, right? “...Together, we can elect more pro-choice Democratic women – up and down the ballot.”
This whole story makes us feel…sketchy. Was there actually a police report filed? Not sure if that ever happened...since a short time later USA Today reported in June 2019 that “… Carroll did not report the incident to the police.” That was on June 25, 2019.
Just the day before though, June 24, 2019, USA Today (which you’ll remember endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016) had done an opinion piece “Are we bored with rape? I hope not. Jean Carroll’s Trump allegation deserves attention. ‘Joe Biden accused of standing too close’ is apparently a way bigger story than ‘Donald Trump accused of raping a public person in a public place.‘.” It all fit too neatly into the political attack on Justice Kavanaugh, at the time.
I’m just a dumb one-time big city news exec. But you know what? When an opinion piece comes out ahead of a “big” news piece…the hairs on the back of my neck stand up.
More pertinent? The problem with DNA claims is that unless DNA from both sides is processed by a disinterested (bonded and liable) third party, the whole thing’s a joke. Chain of evidence, right? Nope – this is about defamation and whether Trump slurred the woman…
No…wait….just maybe it’s political choreography. 88-days to go.
Open Mouth, Insert Foot – Again
Market down earlier? Blame Trump! Futures Slide After Trump Opens A “Most Unwelcome Can Of Worms” With TikTok, WeChat Executive Order. Will any media credit him if we skyrocket up – again?
Gee, couldn’t have anything to do with the jobs data, could it? Screaming piles of paper debt awaiting the Bonfire of the Equities?
Notwithstanding, all in favor of a Constitutional Amendment to limit presidential tweets to 3-per 24-hour period, please raise your hand?
(*Unless someone credible (able to exercise “tweet control”) shows up in the next 88 days, I’m writing-in Dr. Ben Carson…)
In the Punch Bowl
You know what goes in the punchbowl, right?
Classroom rebellion seen in “Extra credit for masks? With no mandates at their schools, teachers urge students to wear them.” Discrimination loophole? Where’s that legal?
Election under lockdown continues to be controversial as Facebook extends coronavirus work from home policy until July 2021. More on point: Lawsuits Challenge Ohio’s Mail Voting Security Policy, Access.
Roots of the Ure’s
If you have never used it, there’s a wealth of information about long-gone people – such as early relatives – that may be found in the extensive records of federal government’s extensive archives. Turns out, there was a Ure in American history even before there was much of a country:
“Gosport, 26 May 1791. Duff as master and Masterman as chief mate of Rachel swear that Thomas Ure swore in their presence and before John Wilkes, notary, in New York on 8 Sep. 1790 that he was a bona fide American of New York and agreed to ship as boatswain on Rachel to London and elsewhere and return at the rate of $9 per month, part of which was to be paid to his wife, monthly, during the voyage; that, on the morning of 27 Apr. 1791, Ure refused to do duty and, contrary to Duff’s orders, absented himself “and hath not since returned.”
Several things of interest historically here. First, it was common for ships to be women’s names in that era. You’ll remember the ship Charlotte was the one found icebound in the movie National Treasure.
The Plot Thickens…
Wait…so Thomas Ure no-showed for a sailing adventure under master Nicholas Duff aboard the Rachel?
Turns out, our ne’er do well progenitor seems to have been playing both sides of the War for Independence. Check this out:
“Joshua Johnson to Philip Stephens
London 25 [i.e. 26] May 1791
A Person stiling himself the King’s Solicitor, having on the 19 Instant, in company with a Tide Surveyor, and two of his Officers, gone on board the American Brigantine Rachel, Nicholas Duff, Master, now in Portsmouth Harbour, tho’ outward bound to New York, and having affixed what he called an Admiralty Paper on the Main Mast, signed by Thomas Ure, and sundry other of her Crew who had ran away from her, and entered into the King’s Service in the Navy, and having delivered her the said Brigantine, and Cargo, into the charge of the said Officers, with a threat, in six Days to return, and sell as much of her Cargo as will pay the said Deserters their Wages, which they have forfeited by their Articles with the Captain, in consequence of their said Desertion, which Deserters had all entered on board of her as Americans.
I am to request as Consul of the United States of America, that the Lords Commissioners of the Admiralty, will give instant, and effectual Orders to put an immediate stop to the perpetration of so insolent an Outrage, and I doubt not, their Lordships will see the propriety of putting a check to Practices that have a tendency so alarming to the present amicable Sentiments of the United States of America towards Great Britain.
I beg to have the honor of an Answer as soon as possible, and remain with due Consideration Sir Your most Obedient Humble Servant,
It seems genetically, the Ure clan’s American division were a bit opportunistic...claiming citizenship under one condition and flipping sides as a convenience. Not terribly uncommon in the era. Doesn’t look good on the family tree, though.
Last, having lived on my own (American-flagged) sailing vessel for over a decade, I’m amazed that anyone with the name Ure would skip a chance to go sailing.
Yo, ho, ho and a…
Long-Chain Thinking is what this is about.
You may be wondering how I stumbled into the part-time turncoat back down the family tree? Aye, there lies a tale to be told, indeed.
Babbage turned around and wrote (about 1832 if I’m tracking it right…) another book called “On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures.”
We’re working towards a longer-term research piece for our Peoplenomics subscribers. Because Babbage, effectively the inventor of modern computer thought, in this book on machines lays out a “system of classification.”
And THAT, dear reader, will become crucial to our future as a race of bipeds shortly. We are moving toward taxes on production, not human labor.
Recall that Russia is already considering a 13% tax on the output of machines.
Tax the Damn Machines!
It’s clear to us (based on today’s Jobs data) that we are miles from addressing the economic paradox of taxes revenues based on Human Labor (income taxes). Will AI‘s have to pay tax on their (hugely profitable) intellectual property outputs? We’re certain they should be taxed.
We can’t just keep making up money – Modern Monetary Theory is a hoax. It ONLY works if there are no externalities. You have been seeing how “dollar alternatives like Gold and Silver have been doing lately, right? MMT is a broken formula that can’t withstand a mark to market. Maybe in isolation…but does that describe the globalist world of competing currencies today?
Obvious to us is the need to “balance the books” and this is precisely where our interest in earliest books conceptualizing economics of “manufacturing” comes from.
Because when all the jobs are gone, we humans are at risk of perishing, as well.
Essay Question: Did Nature just piss away a million years of evolution so narcissistic children could opine, sling bullshit politics about, and retweet the uselessness of it all day long?
Write when you get rich,