Probability Quadrature

by

Breakthrough time:  One of the most startling things to emerge from our recent explorations to evolve a “mechanical trading system” has been more than just the discovery of a semi-regular heartbeat to the market.

What we’ve stumbled into is something I call “Probability Quadrature.” It has the potential to rewrite our understanding of “event measurement.”  Oh…,and make a butt-load of money – which would be the point.

I’ll school you on it after headlines, tea, and charts…

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22 thoughts on “Probability Quadrature”

  1. Re: new car prices

    I read a financial advisor back in the early nineties who said never buy a new car, buy one two years old instead, and he outlined why this was the smart thing to do. I subsequently bought two cars that. It only makes sense to buy a new or almost new car when it is driven to 300,000 miles and “the wheels fall off”.

    • If I wait long enough, someone ends up giving me a car. The problem is that now I have too many cars and need to selectively scrap or sell them. My daily driver has 325K on it and works just fine.

    • URE MAKES AND ERROR! Write down the date!
      Molex is HQ’ed in Illinois. I was thinking (Electrical) connector and out came Molex…apologies for that gaff!

      It is Schneider Electric that is HQ’ed in France (Rueil-Malmaison, France since 2000) but since they have A USA office….

      As to companies moving? They are using tariffs as an excuse more’n likely.

      G (as in gaff)

  3. Brilliant column today. Probability Quadrature is right up my alley. I like the thought process. I gave it to my financial advisor. Your commission check is in the mail :)

    On the tariffs however. If tariffs aren’t a big deal, then why are companies like Whirlpool and Harley Davidson moving jobs oversees? Our incoming tariffs aren’t the problem. It’s the tit for tat tariffs that hurt Americans. The post tarriff price of American goods in foreign countries will end up costing Americans jobs.

    And of course, it is costing American taxpayers more money now that Trump wants to give $12 billion in farm aid to help offset tariffs losses. What’s the point of a tariff if we end up paying out the same dollar amount in aid. Spend a dime to save a nickel strategy. Of course our deficit problems are much deeper than a paltry $12 billion.

    And about that tape. No conspiracy here. Michael Cohens lawyer, Lanny Davis released it to CNN. He was on with Chris Cuomo last night and explained in detail why he did it. There are many more tapes. This is just the first. So much corruption with this President. Can we get a real businessman in office? Like the concept…just not the fake fool we have now. Maybe Mark Cuban and Michael Bloomberg can run. Bloomberg has said he is very interested. Both actually run large corporations, not a shady family business.

    • Your hatred for anything trump is misguided…what if he is all you say he is and what he does results in bringing down the military/industrial scumbags and their minions….as he may do…that is a plus for this controlled nation…imo

      • All I am going to say about Anti-Trumpers is this. All of them belong to one party, and that party is COMMIECRAT! I rest my case!

      • Conspiracy Theory…No basis in fact! Here is a fact. Listen to Trump talk. His speeches are non-sensical…If he sounds like the type of person you want managing your portfolio, running your business, etc….you are the misguided one. If he sounds like a delirious dolt to you, then you are a true American Patriot that needs to be applauded.

        To hater number 2..Commie? Really? I am a card carrying, right leaning capitalist! George knows what I do and how I conduct my business. Voted Republican my entire life…since 1976. In 2016, I rebelled and voted for a write in candidate… Worst choices for President ever in the history of elections. I had one brain freeze in 2012 and voted for Obama…Romney just didn’t do it for me at the time. But now he looks like a dream team President compared to what we have in office now.

      • To tell you the truth, I think Trump is borrowing a page from the Hegelian Dialectic and creating his own version of control.

  4. …another possible analog to viddy-o:

    When one observes the (formerly standard) NTSC color bars, the lowest-most and leftist–most square blue “chips” are the “I” and “Q” quadrature signals. When these two “seem” to the eye to be of equal blue saturation, then it will be seen that the other color bars are all correct. If you will, the “blue-ness content” of the I and Q need to be balanced and equal.

    Important ideas to your quadrature theory, which theory I buy, are the ideas of Acceleration, Inflection Point, Momentum, and Delay.

    From this, one can begin to form an abstract grok of the whole thing — not easily put into words.

    I also like the idea of a Quantum Decision at the inception point as being The Moment. “Timing,” as they say, “is Everything…”

    • Probability Quadrature – balancing data

      Acceleration, the speed induced by an outside force
      Inflection Point, a turning point in direction
      Momentum, inertia of an object – product of motion and mass
      Delay, a delay or postponement

      My first reaction to your description of the system model is that it is objectifying of the data on a 2d interpretation.

    • how to approximate 3d in a 2d model – add volume

      acceleration – add resistance, sum valuation – potential change = preexisting resistance
      inflection point – check it using inverse fibonacci – is it null
      momemtum – bouyancy, projected float points – supply/demand
      delay – credibility

      • I’ve suffered through a lot of math and seen the gibberish line before… Is this one of those random text generators?

      • Sounds like more Sativa in your hybrid than not…step away from the 29% total THC…

      • George,

        Random text generator? Youre not referring to woo woo dreams are you George? If so, probably but on a waking basis! lol

        I always thought the game battleship was a aptitude test for career testing! lol

      • I apologize George, I did play battleship once. My analysis was that it did test one’s capacity for blind trust. lol

    • Ah, William, you are giving away the trade secrets of us OLD tv engineers! Of course this is obsolete technology now. But quadrature modulation is still used in complex ways for digital transmissions now.

  5. I drive every car until the wheels fall off. If you’re going to always have a payment, you’re better off to lease. Not having a payment for 5+ years is banked $.

    Put 330k on my ’01 Dodge Durango. Best truck I’ve ever had. Gave it to my vehicle-less son, and he put another 40 on it before he wrecked it. I cried a little.

  6. This a Holy Crap! post, George. You articulate an inner dialogue I’ve had for years about this abstraction. Gaining an ‘edge’ and calling it luck because our mental practice includes constant observations and deep linking. Some life experiences and training sharpen these skills in order to be able to maximize the moment when preparation and opportunity are nearest each other on the Quadrature. It is very similar to magic, if defined as “as the art and science of causing change in consciousness in accordance with will”.

    By your encantations, and your sigils of the Quadrature, you’ve cemented your wizardly reputation. By giving us a familiar mental dashboard to kickstart our own visualizations, and the aforementioned tools to meditate on, you’ve also just opened the Ure School of Quadrature Magic. I say that you’re mathematizing magic!

    This should blow some minds wide open.

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