I’ve been re-reading a fascinating book on the how math really can ‘shave the odds’ in a gambler’s favor. The Hill and Wang book “Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street.”
What makes the book worth reading is it a) shows the relationship between technology, math, and organized crime, b) gives a lot of insight as to how the deep-thinkers of Bell Labs work, and c) it expands your frame-of-reference when comes to financial decision-making. My favorite parts are not the (easy to understand) math references; its the tie-in between concepts like the “private news wires” that fed horse racing information to bookies all over the country and organized crime. We can generalize some of it to social media behavior.
Savory, in that one can plot the speed with which illegal gains are had by leveraging the technology of the era.
Fast-forward to this morning.
As you may have figured, we’ve been working on a computational advisor to better-inform us of our trading plans.
What we are expecting today is a decent rally – one that could continue into tomorrow, though that shades toward a turn day – and then some (ostensibly) news-driven event that ought to pop and push the market down in the Thursday through Monday period.
The idea is, you’d want to get a sense of “how far up is” in the next day or two in order to decide whether a short position (for example) should be abandoned on a day-trading basis, and re-entered at tomorrow’s close, for example.
Oh…should mention that in Fortune’s Formula, you’ll find the mathematical basis of at least one hedge fund…(don’t quit your day job yet, however!)
So with a computational/graphical approach – and incorporating the last of the discussions which will be up for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow (on Probability Quadrature), we don’t worry too much about what’s to come.
If we take a few shovels-full of nut-job math, toss in a pretty solid grounding in long wave economics, what we would expect to see in the next 90-days dances like this:
- The market should rally today and maybe tomorrow.
- Hit a low in the Friday through Tuesday date range.
- Rally into the third week of August (and we don’t rule out a new all-time high, but that’s a 40 percent bet as I’m calling it this morning.
- Then we begin the descent into a terrible fall.
As I’ve warned before, most of the people in the upper end of finance are NOT republicans and the demagogues allege. No, they tend to be liberal sorts and they will predictably pull out all the stops this fall in order to continue their socialist coup d tat efforts.
You know, a lot of people don’t read history. The Nation, for example (mediabiasfactcheck scores left-center/left) did an article in 2000 that did a very effective job of painting the “right and revolution” meme into web space. See “Ford and the Führer.”
While a popular misconception on the web (republicans are evil), they are no more so than democrats. The case is more than nailed in the Kerry Bolton piece on the Counter-Currents Publishing website “Wall Street & the November 1917 Bolshevik Revolution.” :Liberal money loves a social(ist) coup.
The key thing is that under Claude Shannon’s landmark information theory (laid out nicely with historical context in Fortune’s Formula), we appreciate that the Internet has fallen in usefulness recently as the “noise floor” of the digital mob has raised the nose floor to such levels as to make clear-headed viewing of history unpopular.
Ask most people about the role of information in finance and if under 30-something, the likely answer is left-wing inspired bullshit. We hold to a little different view of things around here: Cash talks and bullshit walks. Which is why UrbanSurvival is as much about taking off the sociopolitical economic blinders as it is figuring out where to “make a stand” with your family when the banks and government take up the long-wave economic process of Screwing Everyone.
We’re almost due. Remember how much fund 2009 was? Well, more, better, different, with internet controls to boot. You’re going to love the totalitarian information regime which will be installed. Promise.
And that, after the first cup of tea, is what brings us to the Trifecta of real news that constitutes the present manifestation of that “thing” we have been yammering about for some weeks. The Webolution. Which we will refer to this morning as?
World War Web
OK, we have a reasonable guess at where the markets are going, what will happen this fall when the desperatcrats pull the plug on investments, and gee yes, a rally into late summer is still likely.
But what’s the REAL news to be keeping an eye on?
Three stories alone define what’s going on:
The first involves President Real Estate.
The showdown between the Prince of Clicks, Jeff Bezos, and President Real Estate may not be apparent if you read stories like “Trump clobbers Washington Post over claim he’s impatient with pace of North Korea nuke talks as he warns owner Bezos’s Amazon that Post Office might end its cheap shipping rates.”
The defining work we’ve done on this is in the Peoplenomics subscriber library. It’s our report ” June 11, 2016: Bezos and Bentonville: Barbarians at the Mall.”
In that, we laid out the battle – now in play – for outfits like Macy’s (that owns Federated Department Stores) and anyone who is relying on mall traffic. You can see how this engagement in World War Web is working out.
The surprise (for President Real Estate) is likely that people like the Ure’s will keep shopping Amazon even if prices go up a bit because of punitive Post Office charges: It still makes sense to order online because time is the real currency today. Amazon saves time like mad! Just this morning I ordered 50-more microfiber shop towels. Time to receipt? 2-Days. Purchase c ost? $16-bucks. Friend, I can’t even drive to town and back (1-hour) for that!
So much for story #1. Our second decisive engagement is this:
War on Social is now underway as “Russia considers fake news law that would fine social networks.” We have been predicting controls on the Digital Mob’s mouthpiece outlets since my book Broken Web back in 2012. it’s inevitable. Russia is just able to get-there-first. Which is why (if you’re n ot paying attention) the Digital Mob will take down Trump long before they take down Putin. Putin’s analyzed (which a good KGB boss would) correctly and he’s tearing down Social’s barricades.
Story 3: Putin in not the only one to “get it” when comes to World War Web. But where Social’s feet are already being held to the fire, the Social Media adherents (e.g. The Digital Mob) are raising a terrible noise. See “Ugandans raise volume on social media tax protests.”
Rest 100 percent assured, not every Ugandan is protesting social media taxes. BUT the clever left-wing Digital Mob leadership will be wrapping this up in a flag of “liberty and free speech” and thus will mobilize the entire Global Social Media Uprising. And this will be spun by the rather dim-witted American co-opted media into how “Uganda is anti-Freedom” and so forth.
Meantime, the American left-leaning media can’t clean our liars running for office. Like Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren, for example. After apparently lying in order to get minority status as a Native American, publications like the New Yorker don’t even bring that up in puffery like “Leader of the Persistence .”
We hold to the “where there is smoke” concept when outfits like www.snopes.com have to put an Elizabeth Warren story as a “mixture” of truth and fiction. Notwithstanding, Snopes says in part:
“The legitimacy of Warren’s claims to Native American heritage has certainly been challenged by many critics, and it is true that while Warren was at U. Penn. Law School she put herself on the “Minority Law Teacher” list as Native American) in the faculty directory of the Association of American Law Schools, and that Harvard Law School at one time promoted Warren as a Native American faculty member.”
Republicans are demanding that she take a DNA test, but the liberal media (such as the New Yorker) are willing to overlook such truth-stretching (if that’s what it is…) in order to further an anti-Trump, anti-republican agenda. Not like electing liars to office would be anything new – and Warren can bank on voter stupidity, as well.
But again, we come back to what we’re really dealing with here: A bunch of crazy partisans engaged in a war between constitutionally elected governments worldwide and digital mob rule ascending until constitutional governments dial it back..
Our call on the Warren puffery is simple: She’s one of the Digital Mob leaders now…and as such, she gets a free-pass from the ‘Merican Left Press – which is also co-conspirator in the Great Digital Uprising.
If Mueller had an ounce of integrity, he would be off on this tangent, but don’t hold your breath. There’s no chance. Besides, Mueller is too busy playing footsy with Trump lawyers to do something useful.
So there you have it: A simple guide to the barnyard (it ain’t a swamp) so you can follow along as the world doesn’t seem to make sense. It does if you understand money and power.
The horrible secret is that that Internet is exactly like giving children matches and some crumpled up newspapers to play with and then leaving them unsupervised for a day while you go shopping and stop on the way home to get drunk.
Could something bad could happen? Even a chance?
If you’re not following this Big Picture View, you aren’t conscious. Have some tea.
Peoplenomics tomorrow: Probability Quadrature.
The only data of consequence today is the PMI flash – different than a PMS or IMS flash, we’re thinking.
And for now? Dow futures are up 138 on no real news other than Israel shooting down a Syrian warplane and commercials running the shorts. Come on, you did see the movie Wag the Dog, right?
It’s Wag-Time in Washington. Stand by to be shook. Nice puppy.