Precipitous Monday – Inky Markets

In traditional economics, money was defined generally as a “storehouse of value.”  Yet, to even the least-informed, this linkage has been mostly shit-canned.

The problem is one of runaway leverage.

Once upon a financial fairytale, the story was sold far and wide that America was using a fractional reserve currency.  In other words, when a dollar was printed, if could be re-lent as many as seven or eight times.  Thus, printing more money advanced the money supply.

This died in the shadows of 9/11.  But the “charges” were set when Nixon closed the gold convertibility window (and opened up trade with communist China) in the early 1970’s.

The problem – quite simply – is that “money creation” is well- beyond government control.  Effectively (although we despise crypto currencies because they exist mainly as a way to fund human trafficking, launder cartel money, and help tax-dodgers avoid their fair share of public costs) between cryptos and derivatives trading, the “money” in America’s monetary base is merely a small fraction of “money in play.”

Oil and Metals Tell Us Something…

The price of oil on the futures market was knocking on $85 this morning.  Gold was magically drawn above $1,800 briefly, and silver is edging back towards $24.50.

Away from public eyes (because Public is a synonym for lazy) there is data that is cause for concern.  The Notional Value of U.S. derivatives continues hanging over the world like some sword of Damocles.

“Derivative notional amounts decreased in the second quarter of 2021 by $5.5 trillion, or  2.9 percent, to $183.5 trillion.

The “good news” about notional values is that in the (cockeyed) world of financial engineering these are passed-off as totally safe.  Because (in theory) derivatives have counterparties.  Thus, arguably, derivatives are a zero-sum game.

Until, of course, they are not.

That actually happened – back in 1974 if you know where to read in Wikipedia:

Herstatt Bank (Bankhaus I.D. Herstatt K.G.a.A.) was a privately owned bank in the German city of Cologne. It went bankrupt on 26 June 1974 in a famous incident illustrating settlement risk in international finance.

It led to the creation of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision a committee composed of representatives from central banks and regulatory authorities to help find ways to avoid such risks in the future.”

The way the world was saved (that time) was through the institution of “continuous settlement.”

Risk Propagation

See, what happened with Herstatt was they were holding a ton of derivatives (until then considered good financial engineering).  However, when they defaulted, their counterparties (expecting Herstatt to make good to them, so they – in turn – could make good to others) locked-up.

The answer was a process called “continuous settlement” administered by the National Securities Clearing Corporation which, in turn, is administered by the Securities and Exchange Commission.  (Notes and details here.)

For almost 50-years now, I have been haunted by the “What could go wrong with this?” question.  Obviously, continu0us settlement worked  through the Internet Bubble collapse and the 2009 housing bubble debacle.  But at some point, is there a “bigger than government” problem?

What if Taiwan were lost?

Ure’s Nightmare

Continuous settlement works because the NSCC provides for daily netting of multiple positions.  That has worked – so far.

Think of playing several card games at the same time (which is what banks and major corporations do).  On a particular day, you might be ahead $50 playing poker, down $100 playing blackjack, and up $45 in gin rummy.

Without continuous settlement, the being down $100 (which you, by the way, don’t have…) would have busted the gambling party.  Under continuous settlement, you’d pay only the net position from all three of your card games.  $5-bucks down for the day and everyone is happy.

It’s a clever system and it has worked well ever since Herstatt.

The problem?  Will it scale?

We’re not seeing headlines like Derivatives as viable alternative for boosting stock market’s liquidity — Business — The Guardian Nigeria News – Nigeria and World News.  Financial engineering?  You bet.  Derivatives are already doing this at the global level.

I mean, come on, think about this:  US Monetary Base is how much?  $6.329 trillion in the latest Fed H.6 Money stocks.  And the “card games” come to 29-times that amount in the U.S. alone and over a quadrillion globally.  Maybe even several because there exists an analog to some “off-track betting” as well.

What Nigeria is considering is securitizing some of this (delicious!) derivatives pile.

And they are not alone.  There is also something structural going on with cryptos.  Where we read CBOE Agrees to Acquire ErisX, Entering Digital Asset Space with Spot, Derivatives and Clearing Platform (

Short version?  Derivatives are back and growing.  Fueled by unregulated “pseudo-money” cryptos, I lose sleep because of two under-appreciated possibilities..

The first?  Trading of derivatives could (or will) begin to “leak into equities” markets.  In other words, could securitized derivatives be a clever way for the Bankster class to offload products they didn’t (or want) to hold anymore themselves?

Think back to Howard Hill’s book Finance Monsters: How Massive Unregulated Betting by a Small Group of Financiers Propelled the Mortgage Market Collapse Into a Global Financial Crisis which laid out the migration from an “idea” (collateralized mortgage obligations – CMO’s) to a kind of systemic abuse to “grow the bottom line.”

The second?  Losses have to go somewhere.  As we watch the situation in China with Evergrande.  This company – which had threatened to set off a global panic this weekend avoided the disaster by making an $83.5 million debt payment this weekend.

BUT, Evergrande not out of the woods.  As one reports notices Unfinished Buildings Are a Sign of China’s Evergrande Debacle – WSJ.  And in addition to our usual key business axiom (Everything is a Business Model) there is a second:  “Someone always gets the check.

Despite a lot of “rah-rah, sis-boom-bang” a thoughtful researcher will notice plenty of skepticism:  Forbes offers extremely cogent insight reporting Evergrande’s Proposed Shift From Real Estate To Electric Vehicles Fails To Convince (

Promoter Mindset

We’ve seen this in smaller companies over our half-century of writing:  A promoter of one thing has to pivot (which may or may not) work, into a new field of business.  Our sense is that’s what’s going on here:  A “promoter” personality (*common among real estate moguls) [Don’t make me say “like Trump.”] will always have “another plan” in case things don’t work out.

Color us skeptical.  Not only do first-rate companies like Tesla have a head-start, but so do Ford and GM. Toss in the electrics from Europe and the sound of a salesman “selling what he thinks a lot of people will buy” becomes clear.

How long before the next disaster looms?  Our guess is sooner than later.

Someone always gets the check.  And at some point, we worry derivative losses could spiral out of regulatory range to control.

Markets At Turning Point

There’s a time – when sailboat racing offshore (or inland waters) in light air – when a puff of wind comes along that will give the boat (*typically a ULDB) enough way-on to put the rudder over an come across the “eye of the wind.” At the decision moment, the skipper yells “Coming about!”  Crew hopefully knows enough to slightly back-wind the jib so it takes up full – quickly – on the new tack…

Well, that’s where we are this morning:  Do the markets tack or don’t they?  Tough call for any skipper…

What’s Driving?

Well, just out we have the CFNAI – Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator.

“Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.13 in September from +0.05 in August. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made a negative contribution in September, and one category deteriorated from August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.25 in September from +0.38 in August.”

Can’t they say “loss?”  Negative contribution?  Come on, fellas….

Tomorrow, two biggies:  The Case-Shiller/S&P Housing data – which should closely mimic the 31+ percent annual rise in the monetary by that that ever-printing Fed.

Then – if I have the schedule right, we will see shortly thereafter what the latest data reveals about expansion of the monetary base.  Even a fraction of a percentage points could blow a huge williwaw through the market.  “Look lively on the helm,” time…

For Shallow Thinkers

Distractions abound.

Want a liberal view of why the Buyed ’em administration wants to snoop into your personal banking info?  Try A tax fight is brewing over IRS plans to get more bank information : NPR. Here’s the reality:  The $10,000 trigger is so low (and stupid) it amounts to financial abuse of average Americans.  Take whatever amount Sloppy Joe proposes, divide by 2,000 working hours a year – and that’s who gets netted by the jab-threatening Nanny Staters.  At the moment?  It’s everyone who makes $5.00 per hour and up.  More reasonable?  People who run $150,000 a year – or more?  That would be a single income earner at $75 an hour OR two at $37.50 per hour.  Anything less?  Bullshit and arguably in violation of the privacy in our papers part of the Constitution.  (Oddly, they didn’t ask me for common sense input…last seen in Washington during the Kennedy years. – Which is still being covered up on phony excuses and bullshit, but don’t get me started on that dirty government cover-up…)

More BBBS (*Biden Bullshit Bait and Switch).  The demagogues are trying to peddle four weeks of job leave per year – typical bait and switch while they screws us with more surveillance: How 4 Weeks of U.S. Paid Leave Would Compare With the Rest of the World – The New York Times.  Free lunch-selling never goes out of style, though…

Last Day(s) of Taiwan?

Now we get to the real urban survival stuff:  Do you have a plan in case China takes Taiwan this week?  A note from my consigliere outlines the concern:

“China “may” move on Taiwan this week…and the idealized timing is about 1 to 2 hours after Biden goes to bed in Rome Thursday evening (28th), if not sooner.  (and he will be going to bed early – after his all day flight over and so he can be rested for the Pope’s meeting which will be on ROME time, 5 hours ahead of US time.

There are only two weather windows when China can move on Taiwan, October into the first week of November each year, and May into maybe the first week of June each year.  Two weeks remain for this year’s weather window.

Xi is under TREMENDOUS pressure to have Taiwan settled before he tries for an unprecedented 3rd 5 year term next October, so NEXT October is too late.  In addition his speeches about War became more and more bellicose through the spring and over the summer.

Unnoticed by most?  Xi has over the last few months managed to completely stack both the Congress and the Central Committee with HIS people, and most of them are NOT CCP politicians from around the country but are Military People who of course are loyal only to Beijing and have NO INDEPENDENT power base out in the country (about 40% of the Congress and about 60% of the Central Committee will be new after November).

In addition there is something serious going on behind the scenes wrt Xi’s power.

In addition to the rumored assassination attempt (from last winter – at least one executed so far after that) suddenly in the last two weeks his “Enforcer” who was his right hand man on his climb up the brutal ladder of power – sent most of Xi’s opponents to jail, executed a few,  you get the picture: in China high level politics is a very very brutal game, was SUDDENLY HIMSELF put under “Investigation” about a week ago (tantamount to being tried, convicted, and he is now either going to jail for the rest of his life or to the hangman’s noose).  This is the guy who did ALL of Xi’s dirty work, knows ALL the dirty secrets…and now HE is on the same chopping block he sent so many others to.

IMO the sudden “Investigation” of Xi’s right hand man/enforcer has all the echoes of Stalin – including what Stalin did just before he died when he suddenly AGAIN started getting rid of those around him who had the power – or so they thought – to stop Stalin from doing something rash (Stalin was probably assassinated since he had decided to engage in a nuclear war with the US, or so the tales are – Khrushchev will never tell)

Anyway…from the outside it looks like Xi is under considerable pressure from within China to MOVE on Taiwan QUICKLY, and it also looks like he is moving to further consolidate his own One Man Power.

At the moment there is NO LEGAL AUTHORITY for the US to come to the aid of Taiwan. The War Powers Act does NOT apply since we have NO Defense Treaty with Taiwan and China has NOT attacked the US.

There is a bill pending in the Congress, suddenly being pushed by moderate Democrats in addition to Republicans, that WOULD give him the power…but that probably won’t be passed for at least a couple of weeks, maybe not until the end of the year.  The Chinese KNOW THIS. I read it on one of their propaganda outlets!!  (In addition to the US press, so that is another reason for Xi to move quickly!!)

Biden flies to Rome on Thursday the 28th.  They will probably give him a sleeping pill when he goes to bed EARLY so he can have a good sleep before his meeting with the Pope on Friday.  IF they would start to move while he is out cold from the sleeping pill, plus being out of the country, the Chinese will buy themselves quite a few hours before the US can even start to respond to any attack since Biden will basically be “out of it” mentally at first, then on a plane flying back to the states without his national security team around him.

Unlike most of the pundits I do NOT believe China will spend two weeks softening up Taiwan via rockets and bombing before putting troops on the island.  I give them about two hours…. i.e. get Chinese troops on the ground in key locations BEFORE the Taiwanese can even get from their homes to their bases.  Shut down movement on the island ASAP.

IF China does NOT move in the next two weeks Xi ONLY HAS NEXT MAY where the weather window will allow him to move on Taiwan.  A little too close for comfort wrt to the November Party Congress where he WANTS to be elected to another 5 year term with people who may want to assassinate him, or at least replace him, circling around in the wings.  Without having the Taiwan issue settled Xi has little chance of getting his THIRD term as President.

NOT a week to be long the markets imo.  IF a sudden invasion would occur look for the US Stock Market to drop about 2/3 virtually overnight (well because of circuit breakers it would probably just have to stay closed for a few days)  since almost all of our Retail and Manufacturing businesses DEPEND upon access to Chinese made products/parts and Taiwan made chips.  What is Amazon worth without Chinese products?  ditto Wal-Mart,  ditto Apple,  etc. etc..

OK …I “AM” the crazy uncle you would rather keep locked in the closet and not let anybody see or talk to.  Please at least leave the light on … OK?”

We’ve actually done a good bit more:  We have pre-made shopping lists that are ready to be triggered on any word of a Taiwan issue.  Jeans, shirts, socks, shoes, cold weather gear.  Even a back-up small air conditioner has already arrived.  Meds. Backup microwave.  I may order even more used solar panels.

This could very-easily be a “tipping point week” and if it’s “on” this week, it won’t be long before most of Asia is down.

We are paying close attention to stories like Japan Monitoring Combined Russian and Chinese Naval Fleet Sailing Off Honshu – USNI News.  Because
Guam is 2,400 km south, any real U.S. response would likely have to involve naval assets in Japan.  So is the joint fleet just “in the area?”  And where could they be Thursday.

One more to have in your calculations: World War 3: Expert says UK should be concerned about growing tensions between China and US – EconoTimes.

Toss in reports like Solarwinds hackers are targeting the global IT supply chain, Microsoft says ( and you have the potential for a zero-warning time strike.

With all this on the table?  Markets have a way of climbing walls of worry.  but with a Biden trip ahead?  Any last-minute cancellation would indicate to us that conflict could be bigger – and closer – than even our dire contingency plans suggest.

Then there was this:  Taiwan shaken by 6.5-magnitude quake, woman hurt by rockfall (

So on that note, let’s see how the markets do:  After the CFNAI Dow futures were up.  We’ll see how that works out.

Write when you get rich,

62 thoughts on “Precipitous Monday – Inky Markets”

  1. China invading Taiwan is a monumental gamble. I am not sure the Chinese are really willing to roll the dice – yea, they love rolling the dice in Macau, but with their entire economy and global position at stake, that’s another gambling matter all togther. One thing people should note that historically the Chinese do not saber rattle before an actual invasion as they have been for the last several years. Let’s look at this historically – in 1951, China up and invaded Korea, shocking everyone from General MacArthur to Truman. No warning there (although yes, there was intelligence in theatre that was ignored). What about the Chinese invasion of Vietnam in 1979? No saber rattling again – they just up and invaded shocking then Jimmy Carter and even the Vietnamese.

    Now, this is a different China. We shall see. My biggest fear is that insiders in the Biden Administration (which is not legitimate) may have tipped the Chinese to go ahead as the US would not respond militarily. So, if you think we have supply chain issues now, the world will shake at a Chinese invasion – but of course, the Chinese have to import lots of energy and food for a billion people – So, as Clint would say ‘do you feel lucky punk?’ That’s one hell of a gamble.

  2. “$83.5 million debt payment”

    That’s not a lot of money. Musk is worth $200,000,000,000. Last Friday Trump was pulling over $100,000,000 per hour into the SPAC. $83.5 was a lot in 1974. Amtrak is getting $60,000,000,000 when the Infrastructure Bill is passed.

    American Airlines is posting “bailout” as “profit” and could takeover payments on Evergrande.

    “American Airlines on Thursday reported a $169 million profit for the third quarter thanks to more than $990 million in federal payroll support.”

    I think we should believe the world leaders. They’re calling for a reset. A reset is coming. When this thing resets, the shorts won’t be paid because paying shorts is not in the plan.

    • “$83.5 million debt payment”

      Understand, that is just a debt-service payment. Their current debt is north of $400bln…

      • It only keeps them going until this weekend and i taiwan goes in play Friday, it won’t matter. The US will be whacked in half. Evergrande will be an also ran as we collapse

  3. ““China “may” move on Taiwan this week…”
    New Moon is on 10-4 (next Thursday).
    If they ‘go’ it will be 10-3-21.
    What does The Major and Warhammer think?

    Good Luck…

    • Inevitability…? Perhaps.
      Most pieces of this geo-political military puzzle appear to be in place.
      However, Prognostication is never a 100% like true Prophesy is.
      So continue to count our blessings, pray for the Taiwanese people and enjoy good Chinese food while you can…
      (P.S. – me thinks AL means “11-3-21”)

  4. “we despise crypto currencies because they exist mainly as a way to fund human trafficking, launder cartel money, and help tax-dodgers avoid their fair share of public costs”

    How about the dollar, used mainly as a way for elites to steal from the masses by uncontrolled printing and buying real assets. Used to buy drugs and be laundered to real assets by drug dealers. And certainly no one has made cash transactions to avoid taxes. Trying to think of practically every waitress that ever existed.

    I get your distrust, hey, I don’t have great trust either. But crypto has a purpose similar to gold, to store value that like minded individuals can use to trade in exterme circumstances. It is to expensive now too use Bitcoin at least in transactions, similar to gold.

    I have zero trust that the dollar will retain value, and I limited capabilities currently to buy and store physical assets. So I buy some ethereum and bitcoin about 100$ per week since march Do I recommend this to everyone, no I don’t, because I know it is a risk, but if there is no risk in an investment, then it is probably little to no return involved. As of this AM my crypto is up about 44%, though has been down 10% at times during the summer. I have no intention to attempt to hide any gains from the tax man, though I also have no short term intention to sell any.

    Your mindset is flawed, crypto is a tool, like a weapon. Sure you can use it in criminal activities, that does not make it something that should be feared or banned. It is not for everyone, but with a complete loss of any fiduciary controls in all western governments, it is something that has a purpose.

  5. “although we despise crypto currencies because they exist mainly as a way to fund human trafficking, launder cartel money, and help tax-dodgers avoid their fair share of public costs”

    While I’m with you on the crypto analysis the same can be said of our “lone gold coin” we each hold in a buried can in the back yard as well. The problem behind the criminal aspect of anonymous money is more akin to how we handle malefactors when they’re caught – IF they’re caught and arrested rather than caught and released. Today’s world sees prisons full of coddled criminals educating each other in the finer aspects of their crafts and I don’t have to say anything about what’s freely coming back and forth across our Southern borders.

    While the legacy of Communist and Fascist regimes of the recent past lie moldering in mass graves around the World I can not help but think that if we had the same but filled them with verified transgressors things would be much quieter and prison populations much more manageable. Also, given the crowd that is now on the move headed North toward our Lone Star state can anyone tell me – with a straight face – that anything else will stop these people short of a Tienanmen Square event? Every person in Texas, regardless of their political leaning, knows this will only end in blood and, truth be told, blood has already been spilled but it’s far from over. Those on the Left want a massacre knowing those on the Right will be MADE to be the ones carrying it out and blamed for it all. We need to focus more on those behind the events rather than those they manipulate into overt public action.

  6. You want a hottie, dont you G-pop?
    Cant say as I blame you..

    Sorry to prick Ure hot war bubble – ChiComs wont play that way, and will not spill precious blood for Taiwan..think bloodless coups..

    Stopping the supply of Magnesium to World markets – shuts down everything that uses aluminum. Slowing down & stopping supplies of vital truck parts, chips, medicines..

    Hell if “they” can just get that la palma volcano “freqed”out enough(U see grid pattern @ Hal Turner) – it will not only be kowabunga! time on the east coast, but the blue helmets will soonly be in CONUS..oh my!
    Precious Metals (Phyz) and Crypto – “any port in the building storm”..yeah yeah it may look like “light rain” ..its just foreshadowing, a taste.

    Gotta make another popcorn run – scheisse starting to get interesting –

    “if you cling too tightly, Ure gonna loose control”- TES

    Lets Go Brandon!

    • Listen to Suspicious Observers – grid patterns are useless it’s a way of placing multiple quakes into an easily visible field. It’s primary purpose is meant to scare – however the frequency of quakes over the last week and especially the last 24hiurs is noteworthy

      • And that is one very impressive ship Bezos has, too! The masts look as if they’re free standing – that idea blows my mind.

        I’d have to say either his bunker or that ship is the way his exit strategy will go, as Ben talked about it, unless Bezos has knowledge of a place for him to meet up above the Stratosphere with … someone or something we don’t know about right now.

    • I sure wish I lived in Canada..everyone is more relaxed. you never hear about the big issues that plague the usa…. I don’t think the administration is nearly as corrupt as the USA either.. the freedoms we have are being used to corrupt our whole political system.. I think its sad to.. then Canada is absolutely beautiful country as well..

  7. RE: Taiwan: Since Nixon and Kissinger’s historic overtures to Beijing, the U.S. and our Pacific allies have walked a tightrope between the PRC and Taiwan. The U.S. established formal diplomatic relations with the PRC in ‘79, establishing the “one China” policy. While no mutual defense treaty currently exists between Taiwan and the U.S., two formal articles are in place to openly support Taiwan.

    The 1st is the Taiwan Relations Act, which is primarily economic:

    The 2nd is “Six Assurances” placed into agreement with the Republic:

    The U.S. conducts robust foreign military sales (FMS) with Taiwan each year. America provided Taiwan with over $3.5B in arms sales in 2018, or 95% of the republic’s purchases. Germany and Italy also provide yearly foreign military sales to the republic. in 2018 Taiwan ranked 9th in U.S. FMS.

    During the final days of Trump’s presidency, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo terminated the most severe restrictions on U.S. contact with Taiwan. While not formalizing diplomatic relations, he opened the door for using the ‘American Institute in Taiwan’ as a quasi-diplomatic government-to-government conduit. Joebama has yet to formally countermand Pompeo’s actions. Beijing demands full adherence to Carter’s “one China” policy. Sadly, Taiwan seems little more than a pawn on the chessboard of global power. The big elephant in the room is ‘will China use a Taiwan takedown in a “Queen’s Gambit” type of move?’ Taiwan became strategically important to the anti-communist West after the start of the Korean War. If Taiwan falls, S. Korea is generally expected to follow. Then it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to deduce China’s overall plans for the S. China Sea, Malacca Straits, Indonesia, Thailand, India, E. Africa and possibly various islands of Japan. I personally believe China will move when least expected and when most advantageous to the PRC’s overall goals. Few accurately predicted Pearl Harbor. Following the timeless precepts of Sun Tzu, President for Life Xi and his faithful minions will use deception and use a “win without fighting: strategy where and when ever possible.

    • The US would be stupid to risk the near certain sinking of an aircraft carrier by sending one in to “help” Taiwan if an invasion did occur. That kind of strategic asset NEEDS to be held in reserve for the later defense of South Korea, Japan and yep … even Australia.

      Taiwan has become a Pawn … and China would love nothing better than for the US to WASTE some major military assets (which we will NOT be able to replace anytime in the next 6 to 10 years) on a military battle that is 100 miles from their shores and 6400 miles from US shores and that the US would lose.

      As for “unknown” US technology … say something on the order of a breakthrough item like the Atomic Bomb was? Yep … that “may” exist, I certainly do not know but if we do have something like that I doubt we would dare to reveal it in a defense of Taiwan in any case.

      Since currently NO Defense Treaty applies to Taiwan wrt the US the issue of US involvement in the fight becomes strictly a US Decision. IMO China is NOT going to attack any US forces FIRST … they will keep the Taiwan adventure WHEN it occurs strictly a China vs China event.

      “IF” the US “chooses” to go to War with China, well then we are involved in that proverbial Land War in Asia with all that entails. Is the US public really wanting that?
      (the Neocon WAR WAR WAR types sure do … but where have their Wars of Choice in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya gotten us other than a severely degraded military that is stretched to the limit with now mostly old outdated equipment?)

      • “Taiwan has become a Pawn … and China would love nothing better than for the US to WASTE some major military assets (which we will NOT be able to replace anytime in the next 6 to 10 years) on a military battle that is 100 miles from their shores and 6400 miles from US shores and that the US would lose.”

        Exactly.. I say its the poison all while we have the whole country surrounded with what.. container ships….during a distribution collapse.. are there a few.. I think that is something we won’t know..but strategically.. that is what I would do.. we sold our ports.. we don’t check containers.. not enough manpower.. we sold our tole roads.. and big companies all around the USA.. each needing necessary stock to sell the public.. oh it gets good and scary if you look at the abstract part of this possible scenario and the absolute stupidity of those in power selling their support for a few silver coins..,1

        Seriously.. just give that a tumble and think about it for a bit..
        HOW many container ships are there.. and how many companies owned by countries outside the usa that has containers on ships coming. How much was being spent by these countries as donations to those in power.. that whole scenario could be a nightmare..

        Here is my personal assessment with all the corruption in DC and all that they have done.. who better to tell it than Clint..

      • “The US would be stupid to risk the near certain sinking of an aircraft carrier by sending one in to “help” Taiwan”

        So, who’s the current CiC and what is his level of intellect (or even cognizance?)

        The schism in the Democratic Party in the late 1960s and early ’70s which created “NeoCons” happened because when they decided to stop following the Constitution, one faction followed Marx (modern Dems) and the other followed Mussolini (neoconservatives.)

        Modern-day “Democrats” and “NeoCons” all bleed pink, and all have the same ideological roots. Nothing in those roots calls for them to be dovish WRT getting our next generation of breeding stock shot-up or exterminated. The only difference is the Dems are more-duplicitous and will openly lie about their intents. NeoCons like our favorite SC Senator get a reputation as (war)hawks, but when there’s a serious shooting conflict in the offing, it’ll be prominent Dems who have to buy in, before the magazines get live rounds — hence, conservative talkers, trying to make an issue regarding Clinton, Kerry, signing on to the Iraq War…

        “severely degraded military that is stretched to the limit with now mostly old outdated equipment”

        Trump updated the military, from an equipment and materiel standpoint, so we’re no longer “outdated.” However, he did nothing, regarding Obama’s purge, where our best, brightest, and most-loyal field commanders were fired or retired, leaving bureaucratic suckups and tactical lightweights in-charge.

        It is suckups like Milley who’re responsible for our military becoming less capable than any military in history, since Khan pillaged unarmed villager-militias…

      • Please, do NOT underestimate the stupidity or weaseliness of the current crop of American politicians. Also, do not underestimate how “convenient” a war would be for purposes of explaining away our pending financial collapse, potentially rescuing us from said collapse, and focusing the voting public’s attention away from the pols’ generally inept and irrational behavior…

      • “Please, do NOT underestimate the stupidity or weaseliness of the current crop of American politicians. Also, do not underestimate how “convenient” a war would be for purposes of explaining away our pending financial collapse”

        I actually think that the economy will be the reason.. historically War has brought economic stability.. it has been that way for centuries..
        the problem is.. it reduces population.. creates jobs.. or rebirth.. the big issue here is.. WE OUTSOURCED OUR INDUSTRY.. we no longer build we consume..
        in a war situation we don’t have the trained staff on hand that can teach the youth of today how to rebuild.. components are years back ordered.. and we put all our eggs in one basket.. yup what five pop off a few hundred miles in space and we are back to the stone age.. we should have been strengthening our grid and rebuilding our decaying utilities deliverance systems.. instead we have been spending money on wars so someone that doesn’t even live in the USA can benefit..
        Now we are bankrupt.. the people are dependent on govt programs to survive.. its all very sad.. a throw away country.. our leaders all have been swayed by the whispers of those that have no moral values, all for a few coins.. hiding the coins away in the hopes that the dollar can survive this.. ( I doubt it can at this point.. ) a war from all estimates would reduce our country to an estimated what 34 million then the ensuing nuclear winter would take it to a whole new level where what three million nation wide. the DUMB’s that have been prepared have a capacity for just a few thousand people. We are not china or Russia that try to prepare for the masses of people.. build ghost cities and factories.. put power distribution and infrastructure distribution so that if one fails another can be put on carry the load of the down area’s.. the Dumbs I was in and have seen could house quite a few.. the one next to a friends farm will provide shelter for a small city.. but lets face it.. those are far away the people with the knoweledge to rebuild would be gone.. and travel depends on our status quo to remain as it is today.. and the vast majority of those intended to stay.. won’t ever make it.. we went down in one .. my boss told me that a senator told a friend of his in NYC.. he didn’t make it..luckily it was a flock of geese..

  8. The Chinese government knows how to bide its time. Why invade Taiwan and get its hair mussed with a couple of hundred thousand casualties when it can wait and just buy the darn thing? And probably at a discount.
    “Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.”

      • Xi’s political base wants Xi dead..

        ?wonder if they got a dealy plaza in Peking?
        and no – just because that guy in the pictures looks like george bush sr, does Not mean he was running the “OP” that day for the Christians In Action.

      • ODG, not more dominoes!

        So why is Xi described as “President for Life” if he has a chance of not getting a third term?

      • @ Another George

        “So why is Xi described as “President for Life” if he has a chance of not getting a third term?”

        The Chinese did not make Xi emperor. They removed their statutory 2-term term limit. He can be “fearless leader” for life, or voted out at any time.

  9. George, great column today! Good info. Tried to give you a thumbs up, but the widget was frozen at 3.

    Keep in mind that 11/3/2021 is a 3-1-1 day… Think Fukushima and so many other days with that number combination.

  10. yep up we get woken by wankers playing yellowdog turd games . inflation my ass yah storytelling yep yankee . good for nothing . like the old get smart this joint , kaos and control . agent 86 mr moose hard runnin the jin joint . childish stupid economic dribble from all yankee gurus . but dont worry my sewer kingdom down under is no better

  11. playing lttle games turning dials 24/7 . bag china bag biden no food too expensive disease and jabs everywhere . eh . sure george , tell some yellowdog stories that will click right in

  12. DGW

    And to think I’ve got one of those DX-160! (from your Sunday posting). Found it fifteen years ago for forty bucks. Works pretty good. I’m not wise enough to be much more than a lurker of the night waves (any chance of hearing Taiwan?), nor do I have a steady solderer’s hand to recap et cetera. But it works well just as it is. Thanks George for showing me I have something good. (And does anyone know good tube gear restorers in Oregon’s far eastern High Desert? I’ve hoarded other stuff!)

    I am reminded of the old American Negro Spiritual – “Who’ll be a witness?” – which in its earliest working traditions was a ‘Call and Response’ style. Many reincarnations can be found on YouTube, but just this clever modern arrangement will lift your spirits. Isn’t that what’s going on here weekly? Lots of calling and responding, with George lining out the issues we all wish to witness too. And we must do that at least, while we can.

    Which also calls forth this challenge, from a letter to William F. Buckley, written August 5th, 1954:

    We can hope to do little more now than snatch a fingernail of a saint from the rack or a handful of ashes from the faggots, and bury them secretly in a flowerpot against the day, ages hence, when a few men begin again to dare to believe that there was once something else, that something else is thinkable, and need some evidence of what it was, and the fortifying knowledge that there were those who, at the great nightfall, took loving thought to preserve the tokens of hope and truth.
    – Whitaker Chambers

    Thanks for the Witnessing everyone does on this board and for St. George making it possible! d-

      • years ago I tried unsuccessfully to get my mother into computers.. I set up web cam sites on it so she could watch the wild life .. cameras set up to monitor the animals for study.. unfortunately the computer scared her and I took it back.. but it was cool watching bears catch salmon or eagles nesting.. a friend has a cam on humming birds nesting.. amazing stuff..
        the whole planet is filled with live webcam’s..

    • “And does anyone know good tube gear restorers in Oregon’s far eastern High Desert?”

      There are several. Do an Internet search for “antique radio” or “HAM boatanchor” and limit it to within a couple hundred miles of Spokane.

    • Find a LIVE CAM from Taiwan …. they exist for everyplace in the world now.

      Throw it up on the big screen while you do other stuff (via casting from your computer) and “IF” something happens either you will see stuff on the screen happening … or the feed will just DIE.
      (I imagine if there is an invasion one of the first things China would do is physically CUT the fiber optic cables connecting the island to the rest of the world – how long will that take? 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 6 hours? personally I imagine it will be down within a hour and it may actually go down just BEFORE the aircraft coming in are spotted on radar)

      Late Thursday night Rome is early Friday morning Taiwan time. Taipai is 6 hours ahead of Rome
      (per my cheap clone of a Geochron – I have a great program that I have used for years as a Screen Saver and for noting times around the world which is the computer version of a Geochron [got a spare $3000 – $12,000?] “Map Maker Sun Clock” – if you get the PAY version it used to even put the current satellite weather pics over the world map as I recall, but being the cheap bastard I am I have always just used the free version)

    • Wow, David Worth, beautiful. Thank you.

      I gain inspiration here daily from all.

      We will prevail.

      Our prayer: I cast this burden, on the Christ within for the whole planet to be awakened, and the truth to be revealed. That the perpetrators are removed from power and God loving and fearing people take over and lead and liberty and freedom reign.

      2 Chronicles 7:14

      King James Version

      14 If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.

  13. “Forbes offers extremely cogent insight reporting Evergrande’s Proposed Shift From Real Estate To Electric Vehicles Fails To Convince (”

    Feint, for the investor class who never research…

    Evergrande is the ChiComs’ “junk real estate” holding company. This is not just what it is, but what it was set up and chartered as.

    It is failing because its charter requires it to acquire every other Chinese financial’s “bad” or “junk” real assets.

    It is not a financial services company or real estate investment company. The nearest analog we have to Evergrande is as a “collection agency,” except they are FORCED to take any bad real debt ANY OTHER Chinese company tosses their way. It was set up this way so the ChiComs could tout Maoism by bragging about all their good reports, and only have one bad report to whine about, then bury, when markets got dicey. The problem lies in the fact that Evergrande has taken on so much bad paper it’s hanging over the precipice and can’t paper this fact over any longer.

  14. China isn’t going to take Taiwan. This week or any time in the near future. Taiwan isn’t going anywhere, and as the US economy implodes and China secures their place as the next economic superpower, Taiwan will have no choice but to come crawling back on their own accord. China just has to wait. It’s all about the long game.

    • “It’s all about the long game.”

      Generally, I agree. In this case, I have my doubts, because the Central Committee is not displaying the patience with which the Chinese People have conducted themselves over most of the past 25 Centuries. The ChiCom Leadership is less-flaky than the U.S. leadership, but I DO question their predictability and stability over the short term, and I question Xi’s ego.

      Mao drove the Nationalists into the sea, but couldn’t defeat Chiang on Formosa. If Xi could re-unite the Chinese People in a spectacular military manner, he might go down in history as a greater leader than Mao. I hinted in a previous post [that] I fear Xi’s ego. This is why…

  15. I ran into Potemkin shelves at the regional supercenter.

    The vitamin shelves look fully stocked. But when looking closer I noticed store staff has filled slots with random stock. Maybe they had 25 types out of what looked like 150 unique slots.

    No Vitamin C, no Zinc, CoQ10… stuff like that. Substituted in those slots were jars one, two or three deep of fish oil and whatever they had on hand The substitutes were randomly placed throughout the entire vitamin shelf section.

    I figure vitamins for nutrition w/tree bark for roughage.

  16. WW3 ???

    What what what – I thought WW3 was what I was in – the big bad, silent cold war. Cmon man – you know the one..”Mr Gorbechev, tear down this wall!”- rRrg (rockinRonnierayguns). Since they told you they were developing(testing) space weapons..back in the 80’s….forty years ago..just cant stop.

    “cant stop the spirits when they need you”

    “kickstop the golden generator
    sweet talk but dont intimidate her
    cant stop the gods from engineering
    feel no need for any interfering”

    “Ure image in the dictionary
    Ure life is more than ordinary
    Can I get Two, maybe even Three of these?
    Comin from Space to teach U of the Pleades”

    *futuring…hard fork Bitcoin into new Fedcoin in the workx? scooping up PM’s, while the herd be focused on cyrptos in meantime? nahhhh never gonna happen….rutrow
    -Like Bob Marley’s 3 little birds like to sing “dont worry about a thing, cause every little thing gonna be alright”

  17. IMPORTANT ! !
    I hope this is fake news, but maybe George can intercept radio messages to check if true:

    Below is a report from the Southern border:
    We have two friends on the Texas border who we called last night to warn them about the potential of a border war.
    They confirmed that there were 80,000 angry Haitians headed their way and were expected to get there by Wednesday. They hadn’t heard that the cartel was mounting a large armed force, however.
    The people in Kenney County are terrified as well because they only have one sheriff and five deputies to protect them.
    Absolutely no media coverage.


    • “there were 80,000 angry Haitians headed their way and were expected to get there by Wednesday.”

      you don’t have to listen to a ham radio to hear that one…. that was on the evening democratic slanted news network news.. the way they said it .. I understood that the group was a few times larger than a mere eighty thousand..

  18. “(although we despise crypto currencies because they exist mainly as a way to fund human trafficking, launder cartel money, and help tax-dodgers avoid their fair share of public costs) ”

    Its Dark Pool money and used by terrorist organizations to get funding.. not to mention a few countries to…. and the money actually doesn’t exist.. once you dump it in the crypto market it is gone.. you may get a ledger that says look and feel good.. but seriously its a currency with out any physical form

  19. And, of course, all the stocks I’m watching are going up. Do I buy in? Nooooo sir-ee, bob. I’ll pass for a while. Maybe this time next year.

    • “Maybe this time next year.”

      Or Should you wait Bill.. it depends on how old you are…. people that had stocks in a good company during the depression.. that bought just as it tanked…. had their money double the minimum of sixteen times.. during the depression it wasn’t anything.. but during the years afterwards..
      I knew a guy that had bought five thousand dollars worth of a stock..( major brand we all know) at two dollars a share.. the depression hit.. it was wallpaper.. years later we were talking and he said yeah he had no faith in the stock market.. he had bought xyz stock at two bucks a share and now it was only good for lining dresser drawers.. ( the stock at that time was about two hundred a share) and they had doubled how many times..
      I always thought the secret of investing is doubling your money as a long term goal..( I give the kids and grand kids the buy bonds speach all the time) .. average is a seven to ten year doubling. the younger you are the less you have to put in.. if your an old man then stay away..

  20. I actually read george little story up top . Like a good script for a spy novel or some sci fi movie . Good story george !!! That’ll get it going and keep vege attention!!!! Enough for me off for coffee and smoke . Puilitzer prize stuff . His mob love hysteria

  21. “ Xi’s whole political base wants Taiwan back yesterday. No Taiwan, no third term.”

    George – Xi has no longer faces term limits. He’s been “President for Life” since March 2018 and can afford to be patient, unless a bullet finds him first. See:

    (for some reason I could not ‘reply’ to your original response).

  22. Having worked with many professionals from China over the years, I don’t believe they will do anything until the Olympics are over. That would be a terrible loss of ‘face’. They are planning on winning many medals.

  23. Ray, sounds like Freddie Mac and Fannie May.

    GA Stewart: – Exposing Feminism and The New World Order

    Take a look at the 2nd link, especially, then scroll down, for Eyes Wide Shut Smart Alec Baldwin info.

  24. Whooaaa very indirectly dude…

    Hmmmm since I kept thinking my new assistant was from Nigeria but she is not. She is actually where the Arch of the Covenant is stashed. Ethiopia. Been here for 8 years. Waiting for a Boss like me.

    Same place that Queen chick was from who got it from Solomon. Latifah? Nah it was some other Queen. Not sure what she looked like. But this one is really pretty.

    She had a hard time keeping pace with me at Monday night football. But she did good for her first event. Also, had a couple boys down from my home town in Alaska and showed them around too.

    Wonder what inflation would look like on commodities if there was no such thing as National Debt, Bitcoin and alternatives to soak it up and hide it. Often wondered what the Dow would be if they had no such thing as bitcoin. Every thousand points is a trillion dollars if I remember right. WHow knows now?Who cares? Get with the program! What used to be “Bring your A game or stay home.” Is trying to become ‘Get jabed or stay home.” Since I am the A game. I’m out here. And even Who has changed to be the World Health Organizer. Lol

    Let me get this straight. All the 5 top world religions bless me and my office and them my company hires a decencant of the Queen of Sheba to be my assistant?! I’m almost starting to think we entered some sort of warped timeline. What’s next? “Tank Girl” is going to be my girlfriend? After reading your commentary today George. It could very possibly be speaking about me. But I’m just Andy, not really a big deal and all that. Just the wretch that Amazing Grace set free.

    Hmmmm. Well im still here Alice, in the Emerald City. The compounded puns that have been rolling out hot off the press are stickier than a packet of 3m post it notes.. and the doorman said to Alice Feed your head. If you go chasing rabits. According to the new matrix movie out on 12-22-21 what a wonderful date. Since that was my original clean and sober date. 12-22-03. The date of NDE numero 10. Didn’t use of drink for 15 years. It’s a good day to be sober. Or…. if you go chasing Cosmic Chicken Bunnies across timelines I spose. Hahahha

    You know what the nickname of glp is. “Hotel California” because as the doorman says, you can check out any time you like but you can never leave. Originally An Eagles song about that Levay Church in San Francisco. Someone else runs it now.

    Speaking of the eagles. They will be here on November 5th. I got asked to be present and back stage. Meet the band and see the show.

    Now If one of you old people don’t feel like paying $1,748 per ticket on the front row of the show. You can come work for me and get paid to be there. My how the world turns……. hmmmmm.

    They sure are rolling out the red carpet for me. When I am just Andy. Sinner saved by grace. Not perfect at all. Not an Angel or Mesiah or Yoda or Budah or anything like that. I’m just a man. Sometimes I’m not very good at that. LOL

    Hmmmmm. Very insiteful today George. Very insiteful indeed.

    • Cool! You’ll like Joe Walsh (WB6ACU) — bright, funny as hell, and one of the best radio DJs I’ve ever heard (especially noteworthy, since he’s never been one.) Regrettably, I’ve never met the guy, but have acquaintances who’ve hung out with him…

    • I am jealous Andy.. I would love to see the Eagles in concert..I actually thought they had retired a couple of years ago.. some friends seen them about five years ago now.. said they put on one heck of a concert.. Have fun..

      • They did. Henley, Frey, and Walsh each had roaring solo careers, and were frankly tired of looking at each other (Glenn Frey was especially tired of looking at Joe Walsh, because he’s a jokester and a smartass.)

        I believe it was Don Henley, whom someone asked if there were a chance the Eagles would ever get back together. His reply: “Sure, when Hell freezes over.

        Some years later came the “Hell Freezes Over” tour. They got back together in the ’90s, not for fame or money, but for the sheer joy of making a kind of music that none of the three could make alone. They’ve been touring sporadically ever since. When Glenn Frey passed away, there was talk of retiring the band. Then Henley recruited his oldest kid and Vince Gill to replace him, and the Eagles simply reloaded…

  25. And today is 10/24. The day I work up in bootcamp after dropping a shit load of acid to finally come down in Company 32, San Diego Boot camp for sailor’s. I never heard of anyone eating 487 hits of Acid in 3 months besides me and woke up in boot camp. Note to self. Don’t make major life choices on LSD. Hahahahahaha. Oh I done other crazy stuff. Once I did a ton of ketomine, Cocain, two tabs of Molly and a whipit, hit the dab, made a martini, dumped 117 goldfish in a hotel bathroom, fired up a joint laced with PCP and purposed to a stripper naked in the bathtub. She said yes. Hahahaha. Almost married her. But my Momma and Benni Hinn praying for me on National TV with everyone at the Superdome put a stop to that. And I got sober again. Can’t have any fun! Damn it! Hahaha

    Seems to be a pretty mello day. It’s Mile marker for sure. Lots of NDE’s and 2 wedding purposes, 3 houses I have owned closed on this day 10/25…. guess we will see. If I have to go to the other side again. I’m going to have a word with them about a few peeps attitude lately.

    Idk. Who knows. The whole day could be just another day at the office. But when I posted that last post. My left ear rang like a mofo and got all itchy. Left for love. Right for spite.

    Maybe the whole thing could turn around. Maybe. We can all get along and have a good life. It’s a nice thought. Dontcha think George. As much as I get tested in life. THE DUDE is measuring both the thieves and those who tests me, reactions. So HE can know them by their works. Lol.

    Later dude. I’m truly Blessed and Highly Sexcessfull! Keep that to myself this time.

    You ever notice since I started doing Que songs. Look where it’s got me. At every show that comes to town. Keeping everyone safe and having fun.

    Dawned on me the other day. Pretty funny if ya think about it.

    Cue: ~ ramble on –

    Led Zeppelin


      P.s. you ever take a bath with a stripper and 117 gold fish higher than mount everest on a Thursday while drinking a giant martini and smoking a Cuban cigar in the suite of a 5 star hotel? It’s quite the experience, I assure you. Lol

  26. One pretty funny thing George. This little Asian Chef dude puts out a special Buffet for the ESPN dudes at the Seahawks game. ESPN has it specially catatered. I always wear my PGA Masters buddies ESPN tye to take him to the game with me since he passed.

    They always have the best food at the ESPN place. The ESPN dudes know that a Gold ESPN tie with the Golfer on it means it is a Masters Series winner and only a Masters Sieries winner who was a guest on ESPN get that tie. They are given to only by ESPN to masters winners who were on the show. The ESPN guys wave at me and tip their hats. So I go in there flash my tye and all the help calls me sir and they load up a plate for me. Yummy as F brisket and all the fixens. I get a coke out of the fridge and then grab a bottle of water, stick them in my pocket and a large Starbucks Coffee. Then as I’m skidaddling that little Chinese Chef Bastard comes flying out the kitchen and starts yelling, He No ESPN! He Security! You not come in here! ESPN only! You can’t do what want! This food ESPN only! And chases after me with a butcher knife. I f-ing laugh so hard and I’m running out the door with my plate of food. Evey time! Every fking time! I just roar laughing. He know I’m running Security. I stood behind my people as they check his ass in 3 times at games. He always looks at me and says. No ESPN! I just nod my head and say, check his bag really good I think I saw him on some criminal wanted show last night. They dump his whole bag out. Every time and he just glares at me. No espn! I said looks like he is ok. Let him through. Thanks for all your hard work Mr Yang. He looks and says no espn!

    And every time I watch him because he is always watching for me. As soon he lays out that food and heads to his kitchen. I flash my tie and run in and get a plate. Hahahahhahaha. And the last two times he chased me out with a big ass kitchen knife! Hahahahaha

    Funnest job I ever had. By far! Just because Mr Yang is there. Hahahaha

  27. Comrades,

    In Tom Clancy’s world, Jack Ryan eventually became president. Ukrainian-born Soviet nuclear submariner Anatoly Androsovych’s fictional colleague set sail in Typhoon class Red October from Murmansk 37 years ago in a bid to defect to America. The “Irish Sun” reports that he and his estranged wife are seeking travel documents for entering the USA following the tragic death of their daughter on the set of “Rust”, a movie about an accidental murder. Also “The Irish Sun” notes that The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has instructed The Consulate General of Ukraine in San Francisco “to urgently investigate the circumstances of her death”.

    “Hidden” is a story from Ms. Hutchins that the YT algorithm locates with some scrolling.

  28. Got 3 posts today . Won’t need em only one . You can shove your yankee moose hard sincerely. Clowns . Jabbed veges beleive any crap they are fed

Comments are closed.