Paradox: Turnaround Tuesday or Blowing Higher?

by

Another Market Inflection Point?

Several readers have asked about where the market could be headed.  The simple answer is?  “It’s almost anywhere…”

You need to survey the currents and counters swirling about:

  • This morning Jerome Powell (jefe d’ Fed ) speaks.  Markets generally “play nicey-nice” while official-speak is being dispensed.
  • The other Fed reveals this week will include meeting minutes tomorrow afternoon and the Money Supply confessional Thursday.
  • These are “great BIG deals” because the Fed has already said (to markets) “Expect to skid along the effective zero bound to at least 2024.”  Which means no growth – except a money-printing festival in an attempted to offset systemic deflation.
  • This gets us to another problem:  When does public “normalcy bias” break down?  In other words, as the economy goes Titanic on us, how long before anyone (except’n us) realizes the Band has gotten in their lifeboats, already?
  • Layoffs are kicking up, too.  Worth notice:
  • With all of this, we sadly report that partisan wangling will likely prevent any more “relief money” from hitting your account until AFTER the election.  Sure, Second Stimulus Check: Trump Wants Democrats, GOP To Pass COVID-19 Relief Bill…but we don’t think the republicans in the Senate will agree because if they do, things like a tough moratorium on evictions – and  money – will be claimed as victories by the dems.
  • If all this isn’t enough, we fully expect president Trump will make at least one more visit to Walter Reed – as his personality-type will likely drive him to “too much, too fast” and that could foreshadow a relapse.

What could go wrong?  Plenty.  I don’t think the market is pricing it in.  We perma-bears are like that.

Market Decline #1 In Perspective

We will have the updated view on our Peoplenomics.com subscriber website tomorrow.  But, as of last Saturday, from the February 2020 all time high earlier this year, comparing that with the market “rally since” it seems we could be out of harms way.  (Thing is, we’re not.  I’ll explain, but first eye-gobble this:)

Let’s chew-through this from left to right:

This chart lines up the all time high of the Dow (9/3/29) with the February high this year of our Aggregate Index.  It also happened that the Aggregate and the S&P peaked on the same day; February 12.

Like us, the Fed was no doubt worried about the wheels coming off EVERYTHING as we sank into the March lows.  As a result, as the parallel to 1929 (blue circle left) became obvious to even dumb people like me, they pulled out all the stops.  Money creation went ballistic (beginning in the red circle, left).

At a minimum, the Fed wanted to retake the old market high from February.  Mission accomplished, except that thanks to faster trading velocity in modern times, we “peaked sooner” than the 1930 analog.

We THINK (and this is not trading advice) that those “trading boxes” – mid chart – have told the Fed “OK, boyz, this is what $7-trillion buys.”  The green oval (lower right) offers the notion that we could/should bump along.  Maybe putting in something of a “lazy double-top” and then start back down in 2021, if not right after the election.

Bottom line is?  Time has been bought.  Expensive stuff, time!

Screwing Technical Analysis

There was one other thing the Fed got for its $6+ trillionish in direct and indirect (proxy) interventions:  The death of long-term technical analysis.

The reason is simple:  In Elliott (to name one) the March high should have been “IT.”  Fifth wave and all.  BUT, we had another high in September.

THAT shouldn’t have happened.  But, the notion (which I’ve never bought into) is that Elliott Waves should (and maybe CAN) only be measured on a PPP (purchasing power parity) basis.

The reason?  People don’t care about “market waves” and such in real life.  But, if they notice that the price of bread as gone up 25%, then their behavior is modified.  Which gets to a fascinating topic for a (bigger brain than mine) like Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave International to calculate:

That would be the “Inflation disconnection coefficient” of wave counts.  Obviously, if you have a 10-year period you’re measuring a wave through, and inflation is stable (within a few percent) over the length of the timebase, then sure.  Inflation’s not such a big deal.

But we’re in a period now where the money supply behind the one-year charts (previously running in the 2-3% monetary inflation range) is now up more than 35%.  This is why (in my humble) we are in a period that should have peaked with a 50% or a 61.8% (Fibo) bounce, and then we would work sideways.

The Fed, though, couldn’t risk that.

Notwithstanding “Free Money”

Technical analysis still works.  It’s just that it can only  work when the massive portion of monetary intervention has been completed.  And we MAY be there, or in that neighborhood, now.  Since the market (and Fed) can coast past the election.  Next spring?  People will become extremely aware of the PPP change.  Just not now.

What we are left with, when we apply the spreadsheet subscribers can download to tinker with,; is this view of the S&P 500 basis the September 2 high:

As you can see, when put plug in a high, then a low, the various levels to look forward to (though again, not trading advice!) is laid out.  Would a lower close today surprise me?  No, but the Powell Magic Show is this morning!

Thus, when I told you I expected the S&P to be under 3,000 by the time the election arrived a week, or two, back, here’s the reason I anticipate that.

In terms of “economic soothsaying” we might have a year-end down around (tosses dart) 2,850, a rally to the 3,200 area in January, but then down to ther 2,700 area in the spring?

It’s axiomatic – regardless of inflation regimen – that “You can sometimes get prices, but you can’t get time.  Which is why we spend hours staring at charts instead of doing real work around here.

Newest Trade Data

You have to love the PR positioning of the trade chart.  People don’t really think “OH, chart goes up – must be good…next?”  Except this is one *(like the CV body count or cases chart) where going up in BAD.  REPEAT:  BAD!!!

The story about how the Dow Futures Turn Higher As Trump Returns to White House; Fed Chair Powell Speech in Focus, misses something.  Sure, the Dow futures were up 0.29% but remember, we’re totally into Aggregates and the NASDAQ” futures were down 0.25%.  This one could go down to the wire, but a lot will depend which rabbit J. Powell hisself pulls out of the hat.

We’re wondering what a Bull-Rabbit hybrid would look like…ridiculous?

Delta’s Coming

On track to visit Nawlins next week:

If it heads up into our area, could bring some rain (obviously!).  So we will be watching for any (call the pun police!) Delta delta….

(No yuck-yucks in Yucatan, though – coming ashore as a Category Four…)

Urban’s Dept. of Useless

Where there’s smoke, there’s Navajo?  “Chaos and Cannabis: A Hemp Empire Brings Trouble to Navajo Land.”  Light up some of that signal for us…

Another Vote by Mail confidence builder: Postal service investigates bundles of mail found near dumpster at N.J. shopping center.  Wait – Ain’t Joisey a mostly democrat state?

CV-19 Tagging in Politics is coming.  Now that Trump can be tagged,  notice the appearance of stories like Boris Johnson says rumours about him having long-term coronavirus health problems are ‘seditious propaganda’.  Which will lay the groundwork for the fake newsers here to load up another bandwagon…

Follow-Up:  Psyche Break

Someone commented on Monday’s post:

“George…Where do you get this dumb idea of Family Olympics? His family was a complete mess. Trump has only one personality and it’s a huge disorder.“

As I explained in an email to this reader, I don’t make this shit up.  Long-ago interviewed the author of the 1981 book “Overcoming the Fear of Success” by Martha Friedman (Psychiatry, New York Medical College). Here’s a key part from Kirkus Reviews:

“What, consequently, is the child’s fear: one of success in loving parent number one, or one of failure in dealing with parent number two? Still, Friedman has a background in family therapy, and she does have some points to make: in the “”family Olympics,”” sibling competition may pave the way for fear of success in later life (because of guilt about outdoing brother or sister, for example); or negative criticism may weigh so heavily that we feel undeserving of success….”

Sets up life-long patterns and odd compensatory behaviors…

My article Monday went to the point of the Trump Family internal “Olympics” with a (delayed) nod to Friedman circa ’81.  (Took a while to dredge that up from the memory banks – one 20-minute interview from untold career-long thousands – and almost 30-years ago, at that.  One day, I’ll have to write an article on “deep recall” but not today.)

Ham Radio Notes

Still haven’t been able to find a front panel gasket for the restoration of the Icom M710 marine radio.  Note from Icom service dept. tells me “Sorry to inform you that we no longer support this model of radio. I have provided you with the part numbers and the description.  I recommend that you go to eBay or Amazon you might be able to find the part there….”

No joy on that front.

The quest for gasket (seal) MP2816 continues.  I thought they were still making the M710 and variants…shows what I know…

SuperAntenna-III got on 20 meters last evening for a quick “Does it work?”  Oh hell yeah!  With 100-watts (basefoot TS-590) it was tossing a 20-over S9 signal into Pittsburgh (1,056 statute miles on 20 meters)…which has to count as working.  40-over S9 when I turned the amplifier on….  More work to follow, but pneumatic “antenna launchers” are the solution to all ham radio antenna problems, lol.  50-60 is an easy-peasy shot.

Hmmm…wonder if there’s a market for a decibels vs. altitude antenna chart by band…hmmm…

Around the Ranch:  Limb Trim

Been a busy couple of days for the power line right of way crew.  We now have what looks like a golf course fairway on the lower 16-acres.  No chance of me hitting a golf ball the full length of it.  That’d be 1,200 feet from the “first tee” on Ure’s Rough Country Golf Course.  “Cotton Mouth Creek Country Club” we call it. (3 to 5 “official holes”, 18 if you count gopher, snake, rabbit and fox holes.)

Bucket truck will be by this morning to trim the big oak up front.  Couldn’t safely get the big 70-foot reach extension-blade monster through the front gate.  It’s about 10’5″ wide and tires that are as tall as me (and heavier! If that don’t beat physics…).

Breakfast roundup is next, then on to work over Peoplenomics for tomorrow.

Dig that trade hole, rally that market.  I gotta find a new dealer cause even with a toke, this shit just ain’t workin…sheesh!

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

61 thoughts on “Paradox: Turnaround Tuesday or Blowing Higher?”

  1. At this point the market don’t mean squat and hasen’t since back in the 80’s when Greenspan thought the Fed. should run the market.Now Trump is braying about his huge tax cuts if re-elected, which again don’t mean squat because like his one before which benefited only the 1% this one will to.

    Strange how people vote for clowns who do nothing for the main street economy (well except lie of course) but yet will spend trillions to protect the wealth of the 1%,yet turn around to compound their error by doing it all over again.!!!

    • ok, blue dogg, can you name ONE politician in the last 100 + years (since the nonFederal Reserve Act was created) that did ANYTHING for the main street economy????

      When I look back, I can’t see anything that affected the 99% more than the 1%….not even WW1, the programs in the Great Depression, WW2, Korean War, not the War on Poverty programs, War on Drugs, Middle East Wars, etc. There are little snippit give aways like forgivable down payment assistance for first time home buyers, free education, free healthcare, all the welfare programs, but that doesn’t add up….

      The IRS certainly isn’t on the Little People’s side;

      What then?

      Veterans programs?

      Obamacare? NO WAY!

      Illegal immigration programs?

      Social Security? (Taxed under Clinton, changes are made to take away opportunities for the best distribution of benefits from couples; more changes to come.)

      You know when the BLM/Antifa types are fire bombing the Federal Reserve and all of their regional offices, and holding riots out front and breaking and burning their properties down, then I will think that the LEFT has some sense LEFT in it.

      The non Federal Reserve is the FIRST CAUSE of ALL OF OUR ILLS.

      • Nope I can’t say as I really can the last one was JFK and we all are aware of what they did to him, along with his brother and the peacenik’s,as he took on the bankers in the Fed, and the CIA along with the military.

        But then again you have to remember that its the way the founding fathers set it up,Hamilton said when he set up the treasury that at the center he placed a wealthy group of indivdual’s who would build the factories,shipping,etc,and of course they were the bankers,and they simple took over control of the treasury with the Fed,Reserve act,unless we clean up the constitution which at this point is little more then rambling piece of paper why I guess your right.!!!

  2. “Layoffs are kicking up”

    Between taxes or inflation, taxes are the better choice.

    With taxes it may take years to fill a dresser drawer with cash or a USB flash drive with Bitcoin on whatever is left.

    But once layoffs strike the sweat and effort is still there in the dresser drawer or on the USB flash drive.

    Inflation on the other hand pounds away the savings within a few years.

    Yesterday when I was at Mejier I noticed they are now pulling $2.99 for a gallon of milk. At the beginning of the year a gallon of milk there was $1.99.

    (Add up work, 20 years old to 65 years old (arbitrary numbers), most people started collecting newspapers or cutting grass at 14 years old… 50 years of work.)

    After working 50 years layoffs strike and 1/3 of the savings gets whacked in terms of milk at this Mejier.

    With inflation we’re always in terminal decline when it comes to standard of living.

    • “most people started collecting newspapers or cutting grass at 14 years old… 50 years of work.)”

      Phew.. I was sacking groceries at an A and P at 12 and operating push cat on a daming crew at 14 for school clothes…
      I started mowing lawns at 7
      Not to mention pulling weeds detasseling corn, etc..throwing bails.. th today they use tractors…

  3. G – What a glorious day – POTUS is out of Hosp. and back in the saddle at the WH ! In the meantime creepy joe – he who wants Ure Vote for PRESIDENT – just said on Video:https://t.co/RqxZtSSFl0

    “Geez , the reason I was able to sequester, is because some BLACK WOMEN was able to stock the grocery shelf” – NOT A RACIST BONE IN THAT MANS BODY!

    The absurdities get better today Chief – with news out of ARGENTINA..

    – That the longest LOCK DOWN, has PRODUCED the Highest Covert19 Positive Rate GLOBALLY. F-ing Brilliant.

    And here BCN thought CDC & WHO were supposed to HELP people Fight Disease and Sickness – Not Contribute to Dis-Information Campaign, LIE,Suppress and Cover-Up EVERY SINGLE piece of Covert19 information, and actively sabotage the PRESIDENT, much like that filthy,nasty,disgusting haspel at ClownsInAction = active Sabotage

    Hows R those Mouth Diapers Working 4 U ?

    My guess – about as well as BTC has been working for U..NOT!

    • A Carter’s Little Liver Pill in order for NBC4U today. He’s spewing bile and maybe it’s help.
      Pray for him (and Trump). (OK< just Trump, then...)

  4. Once upon a time — when the Earth was still soft and warm, and God lived in a small apartment, before He made it big — “shade tree mechanics” knew of an interesting goop-in-a-bottle called “Form-A-Gasket.”

    This was for when the right gasket was unobtanium. Brush it on, close the parts up, and — PRESTO!! — one had all the gasketness one needed.

    It was stronger than RTV, and higher temperature tolerant than most other caulks.

    Maybe it still exists.

    73

    • Great stuff! Problem with the gasket is it is an appearance item – radio works fine without it.
      I may try to 3-d print it (when I get time, lol) but yeah…shocked they wouldn’t sell or even have the part…

      • If your gasket needs a little squish to it, get some TPU in black or whatever color your rig needs. It prints very nice gaskets. I even made a stretch seal band for my old rotary brass tumbler lid from TPU. Stout stuff!

  5. Off topic but back on the Trump derangement syndrome (TDS). I don’t personally like his personal actions before becoming president. But as president, what actions has he taken that make such a visceral dislike?

    Postive: Trying to enforce emigration laws, international trade agreements, lowering our international military deployments, aiding in recent middle east peace treaties. I think his judicial picks have been decent. Requiring regulation reduction, for new regulations is a positive for me, though I realize others never believe we are over regulated. Lowering taxes has certainly benefited me short term. Offers to cities to help with rioters are a good thing for me.

    Negative: Not negotiating lower spending, even during the “good” early years or republican control. Continuing drug wars, though as executive, he has to enforce that laws or even better he should campaign to ease the laws and enforcement. Covid response? Certainly his messaging has not been very helpful, but personally I don’t listen to medical advice from a politician. Our president is not a dictator, nor do I want such. The states have their own leaders and should be setting state policies by the state needs. NY policy should look nothing like South Dakota policy. I can certainly fault the helicopter money, not sure how much influence the President has had on their policy of giving to the 1%s.

    So what is it about the specific actions the president has taken that deserves such an emotional response from people? Don’t tell me he hates this or that, but what policy has he implemented or supported that gives you those opinions. Tweets don’t matter to me, but actions as president?

    I have my absentee ballot, I normally vote libertarian but really am considering Trump this year.

    • “So what is it about the specific actions the president has taken that deserves such an emotional response from people”

      Nothing.

      Americans have become so shallow that they respond to personality rather than action. The “news media” has shirked its responsibility to tell us what IS, in favor of suborning an ideology which is destructive to the “American Experiment” and editorializing toward that end, in lieu of reporting.

      (Unless we search out and locate actual sources for actual information) WE don’t know what Mr. Trump has done for the Nation and the People, because nobody will tell us accurately, or without color or prejudice, of any of his accomplishments.

      Typing ‘whitehouse.gov’ and reading, rather than turning on the tube, is just too damn’ difficult…

    • Friend it sounds like you have the ME syndrome and that’s the diease that’s infected us and got the country to the point its in.

      .Scanning thru the things that you think Trump has done to help the country I fail to see your point, unless down the road you will enjoy higher taxes for your children/grandchildren and probably their grandchildren for someone has to clean up the mess he’s made, and it sure in hell won’t be the 1% with the huge tax break he gave them and brags that he will give them another if re-elected.Strange how easily people are led astray as if the pied piper had come to town.!!!

      • Just just checked my gold round and yep no expiration date on it either. Is this a pattern forming?

      • No Shitski – BCN went looking for Expiration dates on Bitcoins, aaaaannnd U guessed there is indeed

        No Expiration Date on Bitcoins, not even when the lights go out.

        or

        When the Operators input the Wrong “hertz” into the Teleportation Chambers under the Pyramid.

        .. how else do you think the bodies found inside those giant 50- ton+ black rectangular boxes got “BARBECUED”

        – long way to Mars, takes “tons” of Electro Magnetic Energy..Go ahead look up the name Cairo..the moar U know…

  7. I honestly can’t remember when it was I posted a comment here about everything falling apart while the Dow and other indices go to the Moon but I think it was last Fall or so when it had become more than evident that the only reason for the equities markets to go up was the Fed pumping money into the system. Anyway, here we are, way off the Elliott game plan like cave men taking a ride in a Tesla with no idea how it all moves. At least we can see where we’re going for a little way through the fog knowing there’s a cliff out there somewhere but not knowing how deep the plunge will go.

    Couldn’t help myself yesterday watching Bo Polney’s interview and his “Daniel Timeline” theory thinking that we are, indeed, stumbling through a Matrix like environment from which a benevolent outside influence has foreseen and forewarned of the logical outcomes of human progressions and regressions through Time. Humans are getting better at propping up our artificial constructs that depart from Nature but there still remains our dependence ON Nature that will, eventually, cause us to return to some measure of sustainability within those bounds. We are far from the status of god-like creators of worlds until we can learn to live with each other and not destroy everything we touch for our own selfish pride and profit. Unfortunately, for me, that means some kind of Borg-like existence that I’d rather not be a part of. Perhaps in the next life…

    Today’s economic environment is a Command Economy that demands perpetual growth because TPTB depend on it to maintain their power structure for the time being. We can all see, those that enjoy your site George, the eventual End even though we don’t like to talk that much about it. One mistake, though, is thinking that it is the actual End when it will really be a new beginning – tough for those that buy into the value systems that devolve and become useless as laws of diminishing returns set in but offering grand opportunities for those that are willing to pick up the pieces of what is left – and play by the new rules that will be diametrically opposed to those that exist now. As the Suspicious 0bservers predict we’re past due for a great solar system-wide cycle reset that keeps us two-legged critters in check wiping the slate clean to start anew once again. If I remember correctly from the time I went through a Hebrew studies course The World has started over some 93 or more times as us hairless apes accept and then reject The Law in favor of our own ambitions. The Calhoun Mouse Colony experiments of the late 50s and early 60s could not have been more prescient.

  8. A survey of family and friends the last couple of days shows the positions on Donald Trump to be more distanced, hardened and vicious. No middle ground at all.

    Our Canadian Thanksgiving this coming Monday has basically been cancelled because of COVID but maybe it is a blessing. The carving knife can stay in the drawer.

    Should be a helluva November.

  10. Did anyone notice that when Trump took his staged return to the White House photo op, (in his POTUS costume of course) it looked like he was gasping for breath? I am not mocking. I am being serious. He looked very uncomfortable…nobody has mentioned this, but my wife and I …well my wife…she always catches stuff like this…noticed it and it was pretty obvious . So, what was the point of all that and his stupid tweet that preceded his photo op?

    This is one time he should have kept the mask on to hide his gasps for air.

      • “Here is the link showing Trump gasping for air. This is not normal. ”

        Lol lol I have this powerful muscle that enaes me to sit for long periods of time without tiring. Lol lol..
        Anyway I bend over to tie my shoes and if I stay in that position for any length of time. Well that muscle pushes on my diaphragm and i find myself puffing like an old cow to lol lol..

      • Dear Mark,

        Thank you for posting the link from Project Lincoln whose business model appears to be converting the donations of their faithful towards generating income to its founders. Where else can one find such a blatant oxymoronic and ethics travesty of republicans for Biden? Its a mystery to me why such folk wouldn’t just rise off their posteriers and ride their donkeys into their true camp of choice rather than engage in pump-and-dump trojan horse negative marketing voter confusion tactics.

        One can take consolation in the portion of Lincoln’s edict that you can fool some of the people all of the time.

        Kudos to Mr. Trump for a Lazurus-like rising out of sickbay when his nation requires a Leader’s hand on deck. This method of catching breath is called taking one for the team rather than an easy road taking a knee.

      • Lol nope they are addicted like being on some sort of drug just waiting for another fix, and another one after that and it won;t be broken, like those who listen to Rush spewing his nonsense,but you got to give him credit he’s made a pile of money off it ,but it don’t say much for those who listen to him and that’s the way it is with Trump. it don’t say much for those who follow him,it will be one of two things either a depression or a war and my bet is on a war.!!!!

    • twitter exploded with ‘trump gasping’. It’s been getting a lot of coverage in the international press. he’s not well physically, emotionally or psychologically. He’s a very ill man on all three fronts.

    • Yeah we choose between the 74 year old that over estimates his physical stamina and wants to be seen as a leader, and the 78 year old who clearly is losing his mental faculties after working a full day and leads from his basement. Yeah for us. Still amazes me these are the best 2 people these parties can come with as their representative candidate.

      • Joe Dish,
        They aren’t! We have had two elections in a row of unqualified candidates. Blame the media for most of it. Fox is intent on making everyone conservative and the rest of the mediaverse is fighting back and NOBODY wants to meet in the middle. Really sucks!

  11. The dumped mail-in ballots in NJ are from a marginally Republican area.I was at a funeral last night a few blocks away from the scene of the crime.

  12. Mr G,

    Did something occur 10/3/20 in/from our skys overhead – that directly affected the WH ?

    Whispers and murmurs of a Scalar Weapon directed at WH last week.

    Story on the streets is.. last time someone did this (Ruskies) to CONUS/WH, Chernobyl mysteriously started to runaway.
    If there is ANY truth to these “stories” – one could expect some follow on MYSTERIOUS Explosions of Chemical Warehouses, Ports,Jetliners, Ect.

    Do not think a Bull Rabbit hybrid is any more Ridiculous than a Warehouse full of Lawn Fertilizer EXPLODING and Creating a Six Hundred (600) Foot Wide and Forty Eight (48) Foot DEEP Crater in Port of BEIRUT.

    No NUKES is GOOD Nukes, unless Ure a APARTHEID Luving Israeli.

    [Redacted remark, incorrect attribution, fake news – GU]

  13. George

    “In an announcement to customers who might like to get new bills to give as Christmas gifts, a California credit union explains that the Federal Reserve will not be printing new paper currency (they’ve already ceased making coins).”

    I found this on Infowars with no citation as to it’s source. However, I would not be surprised if it’s true!

  14. How much of your ‘data’ actually matters? You’ve been harping on this data for eternity. Your data is just numbers. Sure you’ve been able to keep a pretty wife happy and live a comfortable life with this data. But when you’re standing at the gates of heaven going over the ‘data’ with Pete, he’s going to notice some discrepancies. ‘Going along to get along’ is the easy choice. You’ve been going along for too long. It’s time to come clean and speak the truth. You’ve taken plenty of my cash with your bogus shit over the years. The final days are here and you have a little bit of time to clean up your act.

    • As Potius Pilat said: “What’s the truth?”

      It’s still great entertainment! To make money you have to be a “loner” and listen to no one else. Who wants to be a loner?

  15. fyi…snakes are starting to “hole up”. esp. copperheads. i’ve been bit twice in this life, taint no fun!

  16. “In Elliott (to name one) the March high should have been “IT.” Fifth wave and all. BUT, we had another high in September.”

    That is one reason I have the 9/3 high as a W3 top and not a W5 top. The other is the waves up are corrective and if we did indeed see a W5 top, the trip down should be impulsive. This ain’t. When we get a W5 top and it comes down, it’s going to scare the ever-loving **** out of everyone. For us, it will properly hit measured targets. Also (mentioned this before) your 3K target is a 38.2% retrace, which is typical of a 4th wave. Mr. Elliott says we shouldn’t be trading 4th waves, but that would have kept us out of the market for quite some time.

    The trip down in Feb/Mar was also obviously corrective as we only got a 50% retrace in the second wave.

    3447 is going to be a fun area to watch, if it gets there. Is this a 2? If so, that mark will have us tumbling down to 3060 or 2836. The trip down from 9/3, although I can see 5 waves, is corrective. That leaves us with the possibility a bottom is in & we see the top after election day before it comes tumbling down.

    • Once EW will have been all completed it will look PERFECT !!

      Meanwhile, triple f*ck EW, I’d never thought I would write that ;-). However, that is how I feel about EW. And I had known this 70 years ago — but I had fallen for this again.

      Go figure!!

    • 3447 is here, but a day early based on Gann timing.

      If we are in a two, this sucker comes all the way down. If not, we should see a C wave targeting the 3290 area for a trip back to the highs, with a volatile ending diaganol or triangle likely near the top, and the last leg up after election results announced.

      I should warn (If I haven’t already) — The astrology next week is very similiar to what we had at the Feb. top. Jupiter sextile Neptune on October 12 followed by Mercury Retrograde 2 days later is EXACTLY what we had in Feb when it topped at 3393. The New Moon on the 16th next week might keep it lingering next week, or provide an inflection point for a bottom for a retrace. Too far out to tell.

      As I’ve pointed out before, 3290-3300 is a battleground area for the elections based on LPL research. Their indicator says if we close higher on election day, incumbent party wins. Lower, they lose. 20/23 track record, but somehow I think this year might not matter.

  17. “More work to follow, but pneumatic “antenna launchers” are the solution to all ham radio antenna problems, lol.”

    Ahem… Unless one doesn’t have trees!

    I have all the parts to add the third wire to my OCF dipole for the ‘Ure gain modification’. Using short sections of PEX tubing as 6″ spacers to support the added wire below the main wire. It will look like a horizontal section of ladder line. And it’s all supported on Mil. surplus fiberglass masts along the fence line. No trees…. remember?

    • Plant, fertilize, water!
      Or in How-wah-yah: Rebar, Bend, Weld, Rebar, Bend, Weld – see the Vince and brother Gingery Book on how to weld up a 35-foot bend over tower that with a little effort could have a 25′ aluminum extending Kit pole on it to get up to 50 feet.
      Say, How about that antenna gain by wire elevation chart, huh? Slick-un there. Never been in QST yet, except buried in a zillion pages.
      New ant just rocks on 20.
      Had a half-hour QSO with VA7HA on 20 meter CW (100 watts) and was rolling into Vancouver BC area at S9 to 10 over…just freaking amazing signal. 20-30-over with the amp…

      • I have put together a tilt-over pipe mast at the end of the house. Working on the cable crank mount yet. It will go up 30′ and support a light wire Hex beam for 20-6. I used to have a small forest in the backyard of junk trees. Took 30 of em down and chipped up for mulch. They were dense ‘absorbers’ of signals from the Hilo TV air stations. I have one mango tree that was topped and I installed an extended fiberglass post atop it to support the longwire antenna. Ladder access. The Lychee tree keeps wanting to spread over the fence line and OCF dipole wire and needs trimming again. These tropical trees are not your pine forest. Wet, green leafy and grow at obscene rates with our 150 inches of rain annually.

  18. DOTI- Is the timing ripe for the selective shut-down of popular communication systems to prevent quarantined from ? Or has it already happened?
    You be the Boss G.

  20. Killing Time, Shame on you for saying anything bad about George I would guess you never sent him any money, Never seen you post before, He is fair, thats why he posted your BullXXXX, You are the one when you get to heaven, they might tell you to get in the other line, Tim

  21. Sign this morning at the drive-thru order kiosk:

    “Drivers must wear a mask at the pickup window.”

  24. Pack of bullsheet artists all of yous. Gold up dow futures up . Yous love it yah nazi scum. You have ruined the world . Low life. You want broke trump cause he is on the take

Comments are closed.

Toggle Dark Mode