You gotta love it when the market has just run into overhead resistance in the S&P 1,686 level and just can’t seem to get enough traction, and then looks like it will fall back. You see, because the S&P and the Dow have not been able to punch through the old highs set on August 5th and 2nd respectively, the doors of hell could open in the next couple of weeks because (repeat after me) Crashes don’t just appear out of thin air: they occur often times 55-days, or so, from a major high (which is coming up soon enough) and along the way there, you’d expect (under Elliott wave rules) to see Wave 1 down, then a wave 2 rally, and the decline and rally would then give you some key insight as to what will happen next.
That’s because a “normal” decline might be expected to be 1.608 times the first wave down, and then a 5th wave down would be another 1.5 to 1.8 times, except that with high frequency trading, it could be 2 1/2 or 3 1/2 times that. So we sit with our cuppa Kona roast this morning (thanks again Hawaii Hank for that!) and ponder our navels and next trading moves.
One more “up” is possible, to the 1720-1735 area on the S&P, but catching falling knives is not the smartest thing to do on Friday the 13th.
A week or three back I suggested in one of my columns, with gold north of $1,425, that a move down to the $1,200 level and lower seemed to be in the cards, too. And sure enough, this morning, gold futures are down to $1,312 and, once a potential sell-off in coming weeks in the markets gets organized (if it does, remember this is not financial advice) than as big players sell everything including the kitchen sink and any gold or silver laying around, we could see the bottom drop out from under gold. Not yet, but the potential is out there.
Retail Fails – Saved by Cars!
OK, new report out from the Census folks this morning sounds like all sweetness and light:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $426.6 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5%)* from the
previous month, and 4.7 percent (±0.7%) above August 2012. Total sales for the June through August 2013 period were up 5.4 percent
(±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2013 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.4 percent
(±0.2%).
What could be wrong? Do I have to beat you on the head with this stuff? OK, I snipped the year on year change chart and drew my squiggly line across what year on year inflation at the M2 level has been based on the Fed’s H.6 money stocks report. Other than being “saved by the auto industry” are you still all bright-eyed and bushy-tailed?
There, how’s that feel? Yes, that’s why credit card use is down…people are sitting on their wallets.
Here’s comes more evidence of our deflationary depression in this morning’s Producer Prices report, too:
The Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 0.3 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods were unchanged in July and increased 0.8 percent in June. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods were unchanged in August, and the crude goods index fell 2.7 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods moved up 1.4 percent for the 12 months ended in August, the smallest advance since a 0.5-percent rise in April 2013.
When crude goods producers have no pricing power, their wages are flat to falling and that lights a fuse going forward for weakness. Intermediate looking flat ignores that 6.8% watering down of the purchasing power of money, but let’s pretend that doesn’t mean anything and everything is coming up roses and lollipops for another week, shall we?
Consumer prices next Tuesday…
Climate Change to the Rockies?
Normally, the backside of Colorado’s Front Range is a notoriously dry place. Until this week, that is. Over the past couple of days, 8-inches of rain has fallen, leaving some cities cut off by roads washed out. and more rain ahead today in the forecasts.
With our trip starting tomorrow, we’ll be sure to take pictures and route to avoid the worst of it.
Boardwalk Disaster
A terrible disaster at the other end of the spectrum may be found in the fire which consumed more than a six-block area of the famous New Jersey Boardwalk which was just rebuilt in the wake of hurricane Sandy. Governor Christie getting lots of face-time on the tube with this…
More after this…
Our Good for Nothing House
How useless and irrelevant has the US House of Representatives become lately? Let me count the ways: No constitutionally required federal budget, check. No immigration reform, check. No vote to contain presidential war-making powers, check.