Coping: With Earworms (Ohrwurms)

“Have you lost your frigging mind?  What is an Earworm?”

Ah…well for no particular reason, every so often when my brain is working on various projects, I do get the occasional ohrwurm.  Song you can’t get out of your head that just shows up for no obvious reason…

This morning’s was the Christmasy song “O Tannenbaum.”

Not everyone thinks about ohrwurms….they just come and go. 

Like last week, because I was spending a lot of time over in the house (instead of out here in the office doing real work, thanks to the flu) Elaine and I had a ‘dumb music’ festival that we’d planned to surprise G2 with during his recent visit. 

We played such memorable hits as “Does your chewing gum lose it’s flavor on the bedpost overnight” and “One-eyed, one-horned, flying Purple People Eater…”   Songs you hate but can’t get out of your head.

Which ought to set off more than a few ohrwurms in the over-60 set, fo’ sho.

Oh, it’s a legit thing, this ohrwurm thing, says Wikipedia:

An earworm is a catchy piece of music that continually repeats through a person’s mind after it is no longer playing.[1] Phrases used to describe an earworm include musical imagery repetition, involuntary musical imagery, and stuck song syndrome.[2][3][4] The word earworm is a calque from the German Ohrwurm.[5]

Researchers who have studied and written about the phenomenon include Theodor Reik,[6] Sean Bennett,[7] Oliver Sacks,[4] Daniel Levitin,[8] James Kellaris,[9] Philip Beaman,[10] Vicky Williamson,[11] and, in a more theoretical perspective, Peter Szendy.[12] The phenomenon is common and should not be confused with palinacousis, a rare medical condition caused by damage to the temporal lobe of the brain that results in auditory hallucinations.[13]

All of which led to the first conscious thinking of the day.

I trust you know that  your brain has multiple memory types. In other words, I’m one of those people with semi-eidetic memory,  It’s a skill that most people have – to one degree, or another – but like so many capabilities of mind, it only works on two conditions:

1.  You have to give yourself PERMISSION to have a nearly flawless memory.  If you are bundled up in tension and self-doubt, your mind will provide exactly what you expect of it.  So, step one to a memory is to simply CLAIM it.

This has amazing implications in school and learning later in life, and if was while working on this improved memory stuff, that I came across my “everything is a recipe” method for learning highly complete material quickly.  (Another story for another day…)

2.  the second thing you have to do is use it.  Which seems obvious, except that it’s not all it’s cracked up to be.  Go watch a lot of episodes of the BBC version of Sherlock (or the American series Elementary) and you’ll see that having an ability to process/recall huge amounts of information can also be a curse.

Which – at least as far as personal observation goes –  is why many really, really smart people over-indulge in either booze or drugs.  It’s a way of “turning off the damn machine” in your head now and then.  Sometimes it can be a major battle lasting through large parts of people’s lives to get a proper relationship going between the different levels of personality…machine on, machine off…but again, another topic for another day.

OK, first point was what?  That when you start actually using more of your brain than the “room temp IQ people” you find that complex…..everything…..becomes fairly simple.  It always has a recipe under it somewhere, and once you have the underlying rule set nailed, then learning anything is simple as pi.  (To a bunch of places…)

Second point is that as you begin to develop your (much higher than you’re trained to believe you have) mental abilities, you begin to recall other than pictograph or linguistic symbols.

You will find, for example, that you can recall (and play back perfectly, in your head) whole complete pieces of music without the need for an iWhatever and ear buds.

What’s more, you can change the music on the fly to whatever suits your mood.

Of course, this is not something in the way of commonly told (or discussed) mental capabilities because (for one) it would wreck the iWhatevering business.  CVan’t have too many empowered people around, now, can we?  Why, having people figure out that they can play back music in their heads, well, that’s quite a dirty secret.

And, besides, there are some aspects of iWhatevering that are superior to what most people can recall, because there’s the problem of the bass line.  And has a mental/physiological basis.

Key Point: Think of your mind as a constantly running multi-track recorder.  Except that the only thing our little 18-track here at the ranch all we can capture is sound.  The distinction is that the multi-track personal mental recorder (PMR) that is constantly running in your head is actually recording different “sensory tracks” and that makes certain kinds of “perfect playback” of music quite difficult.

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The Nonlinear Market Period Approaches

Peoplenomics this weekend was, if I do say so myself, one of the better ones in that it explained a curious bit of (simple) math that demonstrates the market tendency to become very nonlinear ultra-low interest settings like those expected in the period ahead.

The nonsubscriber way of thinking of it goes like this:  The closer interest rates get to zero, the more volatile the market becomes.  That’s because stock prices become cost-justified as infinitely high on an earnings basis just before yields hit zero, and then, once that barrier is passed, they become infinitely overpriced!

Yes, it’s a crazy way of looking at things, but the math holds up – and now we’ve got more research ahead to see how much of the market actually moves on the mathematical foundations laid out.

It’s like that Sunday football game.   Oh, sure, there were statistical indicators of what would happen, but there’s always that “emo component” – emotional component – that works its way into investment decisions and which team you support.

Just like I can’t understand how people get all wrapped-around-the-axle on a sports team, the answer is really quite simple:  It’s all about what goes on down at the archetype level that CG Jung wrote so eloquently about.  I won’t ask you to whip out your copy of  Memories, Dreams, Reflections, but transference behavior is oftentimes a “mother transference” and by the rule of “least resistance” the closest substitute wins.  Mass marketing of sports is what we get.

This is not to say that sports fans (and investors) are all idiots when it comes to manipulation of their emotions, but the reason that sports franchises have mascots is precisely because it enables and empowers transference that to the fan – at the experiential level – seems “normal.”  But to the aware (recovered sports addict or aware investor) the method is easily seen and stripped of its power to herd us blindly.

Just as the Seattle “Seahawk” in an amalgam of northwest First People’s myths, the bronco has it’s own Wikipedia listing, as well.  It’s quite ridiculous to cheer for any team, particularly one that may pay less (percentage-wise) in taxes than me or you.  Yet millions did it Sunday, not realizing they were cheering for either a…

… large raptor, reaching more than 60 cm (24 in) in length and 180 cm (71 in) across the wings.

Or, they were sucked into cheering for…

…an untrained horse or one that habitually bucks.

Raptor or untrained horse.  It’s insane, but only if you detach and looking for meaning.

My (How’s your hangover?) column this morning will not get into the depths of MMMR (managing multiple matrices of reality) as it relates to sports – and investing.  That will be discussed in more detail for subscribers in Peoplenomics Wednesday.

I’m just pointing out that people will cheer for the damnedest things (fish, birds, social or racial subtypes) and not realize they are being “worked.”

In similar fashion, the markets have not yet crashed (although, give it time) because there are many market players who are too dumb to figure out (as great sage Jimi Hendrix warns us) “Castles made of sand, fall in the sea, eventually.”

Which is why, after the silliness of the Sunday, it’s time to roll out our new mascot around here.  No, we don’t know how long he’ll be around, but already the Urban Bears are kicking the average investor’s ass in Seattle-like style.

We can report the Bears whipped the Nikkei’s by almost 2%, the Chinns by 106 points, and in Europe, the Bear was continuing his run for the gold by beating the Frogs by 18 points and ahead of the Huns by 66, although both of those games are still underway.

Also in play, the Bears versus the Queens with the bears ahead by 45-points. 

The US game will be getting underway shortly, but we notice the monthly unemployment report won’t be out until Friday as the Labor Department has been on the injured reserve list from the partial government shutdown last year.  They’ve never made it back into the action.  Instead, fans will have to watch slow car sales and dwindling construction as they look for a reason to bet against the Bears.

Down here at the old sports book, we notice the Bears have won three weeks running in the S&P playoffs.  And only the most casual fan of Reality Bears would overlook in the stats that the Bears have ruled since Christmas week.

As you settle up on those office wagers today, you might think about putting a little something on the Bears next.  They’re looking sharp and the team makes a lot more sense around here than washed out birds or bucked-up horses.

“Go bears, or go broke.”

I trust you know what the Seattle win means by the Super Bowl Indicator?

More after this…

(I have no idea what this means.  Usually Amazon ads make sense to OFs like me, but this one is included because it’s so…uh….mysterious.  No clue what it means, but I will try it later, since I don’t have any friends… Now, where we we?  )

Happy Times Ahead for East Africa, Turkey

Well, not quite.  Understanding this next story requires you have your UrbanSurvival concealed carry training card with you….which means you know what a man-portable air-defense system is (MANPAD) and that it knocks airplanes out of the sky…

Dear Mr. Ure,

Links are circulating to this “Armament Research Services” article of manpad related weaponry allegedly captured from rebels in South Sudan.  While the verbal focus is on the weapons, evidently the seizure was worthy of a photo-op. Perhaps one may deduce out of the picture link from “The East African” discussion board that a son of the president of Uganda could be present.

Regards,

Gold star for our Winnipeg news analyst fellow on this.  And while we wait for planes to start dropping, we also should have our eyes on Turkey, figures warhammer…

It is becoming clear that the U.S. retraction into isolationism, the reluctance of Europe to play a leading role in Syria and the perseverance of radical Islamic factions led by al Qaeda are collectively precipitating an increased likelihood for instability in the Middle East region.

Now Turkey finds itself drawn into the cauldron of chaos, finding itself having to defend its borders and territory from incursion with overt but limited military action.

As Turkey joins the fray, the regional dynamic intensifies, with the potential for larger scale armed conflict seriously escalating.

Instead of the West proactively infusing meaningful measures to encourage peace, such as deliberate enforcement of nuclear and ballistic missile arms control, naval embargoes, intensified economic sanctions, and the demand for the surrender and dismantling of Syrian chemical weapons, the U.S. and it’s allies stand idly by as the pieces click firmly into place for armed confrontation.

There are simply too many competing pieces in play for the situation to end with a completely peaceful resolution for all interested parties.

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Coping: WoWW and the SuperBowl

“OK, Ure, what does the World of Woo-Woo – WoWW – have to do with the SuperBowl?”

Damned if I know – for sure – but something hit me this morning.  And I think we ought to try it out as a kind of woo-woo science project.  Here’s the idea:

As I got up this morning and turned on the ‘net to see who won the SBG, I noticed a slide show on one of the side panels of the browser that had a title something like “30 hottest cheerleaders in the NFL”.  Hmmm…#23 was kinda cute…

Naturally, when I got around to writing about this, I couldn’t find that link, but there are lots of other, similar, photo galleries to be found.  Like this one that promises the “30 hottest Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders of all time.”

“So what, you chauvinistic pig?”

Oh, all in the name of science, I promise! 

Let’s suppose that Jung (and Freud, et alia) were right and there’s a high correspondence between what goes on in the external world and what goes on in the inside of our personalities.  Bear with me on this.

Let’s then imagine that we can connect the inner and outer worlds with the right tools. In this case, a cheerleader gallery.

Most people have an idea about how Tarot cards work, but today’s flash was that we could look at collections of pictures – like the 30 hottest cheerleaders – and by picking out the most appealing one, we may have discovered a new way to pick what?

LOTTERY TICKETS!!!

Hell yeah!  What a fun new crackpot theory to test.

Now, if you live in Texas, obviously you could use the “30 hottest” of the Cowboys and then for the rest of the lotto numbers, you could pick from the hottest picks from a Houston collection.

So you take a collection of photo galleries, find the pictures you are most drawn to, and then use the picture numbers as lotto picks.

Then tabulate your lottery results to see if they are better – or worse – than how much you didn’t win before.

Or, I suppose, if you have a deep-seated Loser Complex, you pick pick out the six ugliest (or however many numbers you need for lotto, PowerBall, or whatever, and see how that works.

I’m always intrigued with the notion “as above, so below”  or, since I’m deep in research in other areas that run parallel (sans cheerleaders, which would sure make it more interesting) the correspondence between “inner world” and “outer world” and this just struck me this morning as something worth mentioning.

If you have other ways of picking lotto numbers, please send them in.

And if you hit The Big One after trying this “pick from pictures” to get numbers approach, a 10% tip to the House is in order….

Our Healthcare Cost Poll

One of my friends left me a critical note (and voicemail) about my Obamacare/ACA cost poll.  He said a better poll would be…

“I became a year younger last year.

I became a year older last year.

There, now I’ve fixed your poll about health care costs.  Duh.  It’s an actuarial pricing model.  Think about it.”

Well, I have been…all damn weekend…and it still doesn’t make sense.  The Obamacare / ACA price experience is NOT a zero-sum game.  There appear to be more losers (people paying more) than there are winners (people paying less, and insurance companies).

So first our UrbanSurvival reader experience with the ACA:

Number Who Report Lower Healthcare costs:   17

Number Who Report Higher Healthcare costs:  52

I didn’t vote in this poll, because my healthcare costs went down, but only a couple of bucks.  Thanks to joining the ranks of the Olde Pharts (age 65 this month) I am now on Medicare which is a whole other problem.

Representative comment from someone whose costs got cheaper:

We (wife & I ) were on Minnesota care- low income. $48. Month. Now we are on medical assistance (MA) Free.

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Peoplenomics: Has the Long Wave Been Defeated?

With the departure Friday of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and the elevation of Janet Yellen to the position of Fed chair, have we seen the demise of the long wave cycle in economics? Or, has there simply be so much “creation” of “paper money” that we can no long see the true scale of what’s going on? These are some mighty juicy morsels to ponder as we survey this week’s action in markets. Which we’ll get around to after a few headlines and coffee, as always… More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW!

World Ending…but Which World?

Still saddled with this crummy flu/cold./plague/or pox upon me, I almost crawled back into bed this morning upon discovering that the world would be ending sometime in August of this year.  Yes, there’s a story out on the Turner Radio Network (no relation to Ted, so far as we know) that assures us that a “Professor gives coordinates of planet inbound toward Earth.”

Of course, the story’s cited source, a “Dr. Kaplan” (no first name given) seems to have a video up on YouTube, which would be terribly important except for one thing:  the UT Austin Astronomy Dept. doesn’t have any Dr. Kaplan listed on it’s personnel directory (here) and so it doesn’t look legit, so we continue our quest for how the world is likely to end this year.

The smart money is on the world ending because of financial destruction, instead of errant planets.  Errant financial policy is far more likely…

In the early-going today, the Dow which was up 109 points yesterday, is likely to drop more than a hundred-fiddy  around the opening, and as a result, we expect the week to end down around its lows, or under.  Remember, below the S&P 1,770 level is where Robin Landry and a lot of other experts in market analysis expect things to get really interesting.

While we await the market opening today, we can begin munching on a side order of quick-fried numbers – personal income and expenses.  Have your ViceGrips at the read as you read this one…

“Personal income increased $2.3 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $3.8 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in December according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $44.1 billion, or 0.4 percent. In November, personal income increased $29.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $14.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $74.8 billion, or 0.6 percent, based on revised estimates. Real disposable personal income decreased 0.2 percent in December, in contrast to an increase of 0.1 percent in November.

Real PCE increased 0.2 percent in December, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent in November.

No surprise, however I do have on my questions to ask BEA list this one: Are ya’ll counting healthcare tax in your accounting?

And then there’s personal savings:

Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $495.2 billion in December, compared with $541.0 billion in November. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 3.9 percent in December, compared with 4.3 percent in November.

How they can come out with such stuff month after month is mystifying.  But the real numbers to wait for will be the January numbers (a month from now) after all the healthcare changes roll in.  Or, will they simply not count that as a tax?  Jokes on us.

But meantime, if there’s a decline in your standard of living, if you tear into their underlying spreadsheet, you’ll see they do things like count home equity as “savings” and such, you’ll see that the last YTD increase in personal savings for 2013 was 4.5% while in 2012 it was 5.6% and In 2011 it was 5.7%.

Gee, do you think this economic reality has anything to do with why the Dow will open down 150 this morning?

Which gets us to….

Obamacare Poll

I’m looking to collect actual reader experience with healthcare reform, so please click one of the following links and send me a note:

My healthcare become MORE expensive under Obamacare

My healthcare became LESS expensive under Obamacare

Oh, sure, there have been other polls out there, but I want to find out what actual UrbanSurvival reader experiences are.  If the poll comes in good – then fine – we’ll be pleased to report that.  However, if the poll comes in negative, well, that too will get reported.

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Coping: Flu Link to the Shaman in the Living Room?

This is getting old: That chest cold I was telling you about earlier this week has come back for “round 2” and although it’s bad, there may be some good to come of it.  Takes a little explaining, but here’s my logic:

As you remember, my son came back from Skydive Spaceland with a really hoarse voice and a bit of a cough.  Nothing serious, so I chalked it up to a “no risk” event.  Since then, he’s gone back to Seattle where he’s on the job for the health department and university up there and feeling fine.  He was symptom-free in 72-hours.

So I talked to him Wednesday and wondered why I was feeling like crap.  “Well, you know dad, since I’m a first responder on just about everything up here, I have not only the regular flu shots but also two kinds of investigational flu shots in my.  So I’m immune to bird and swine in all the variants we know of, at least as of when the studies started.  Have you broken into your Tamiflu yet?”

Could it be something as simple as that?  Could he have had a close brush with one of the new flu’s and I’ve simply gotten a version of one of those? 

One way to check on your temperature, if you don’t have a thermometer handy, is to run your blood pressure with a BP cuff.  G2 has me do that and it came in as 113/69 with a pulse of 74.

“Doesn’t seem like more than a degree, or two, dad.  The way we figure it on the fly is for every degree of elevated temperature, the heart rate can go up about 10-beats per minute.  Last time I had a bad flu and 105, my heart rate was up around 110-115 resting.  So you don’t have anything bad…at least not yet.  But keep an eye on the heart rate…”

One reason I am super-sensitive to chest colds is that as a life-long asthma sufferer, I remember the nearly fatal combination of cold, fever, and “seeing the blue light” and all from where I was very young and had been rushed to the ER for oxygen and treatment.  For the last 40-years, being aware of allergies has moderated that and between one pill and a puff or two on an inhaler every day or two (albuterol and QVAR) the lungs have been dandy.

Until this cold, this week.

So I went back through my allergy/eating habits and nothing had changed. “What is going on such that I feel like I’m being…..waterboarded?”

OH-OH…. I just solved my own question!!!

Last Saturday, Elaine and I ordered an Amazon Instant Video: Escape Plan with Sly Stallone and
Arnold Gubernator.  Hugely entertaining flick.  EXCEPT for one minor detail:  There are lots of scenes in the movie where the heroes are having all kind of difficulty breathing.  Such things as being underwater on the prison ship they’re on (“The Tomb”) and, in one scene in particular Stallone was being waterboarded.

Hmmm…

About here I began to play back a number of things we all know about television, starting with Pappy’s sage advice, issued while I was watching the early Untouchables” series:  “Don’t sit so close to the TV, you’ll get blood all over the place…”

Some where in there, he also mentioned that one of the rare games that his crew down at the fire house would do on the odd evening in the station when there wasn’t a fire or mayhem afoot, was the firemen would count the number of killings per episode.  I think the high was something like 31-deaths in a one-hour show.  I think a fireman named  Califano kept score, if I remember…

There was even some wonderment at the time whether the wildly escalating number of murders on television would spill over into “the projects” that were in pappy’s district, although it was a busy enough station they didn’t have time for full-on research like that.

Fast-forward: We already know (or at least presume you know) that sitting on lard butt in front of the tube is all kinds of bad for you anyway.  The reasons are simple enough:  No body movement, often accompanied by binge-eating and it’s no wonder heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and even Alzheimer’s are linked to too much butt-time in front of the tube.

But what there doesn’t seem to be too much data on is the shamanistic potential of the television.  Especially when a person’s normal “hard shell” has been softened or weakened by some kind of illness.

The roll of pain and suffering in shamanism is touched on in a 2005 article by Drs. John
Ankerberg and Weldon.  (two Johns)

This one quote in particular, to borrow a cite in their work, drives home my point:

The Salish shamanic initiation includes first a period of torture and deprivation: being clubbed, bitten, thrown about, immobilized, blindfolded, teased, starved. When the initiate “gets his [shamanic] song straight,” or the slate that is the mind is wiped clean, the guardian spirit or power animal appears [to possess the shaman].[

Oh my!  It all gets me to wondering if watching television which sick (or in diminished capacity) might have the same effects on the subconscious?  Could this be the mechanism by which young men under 30 are programmed to commit murder and mayhem?  Is there deliberate (or even inadvertent) shamanistic ritual included in certain shows that could make a person more susceptible to a more serious version of the disease (like my chest cold) than would otherwise happen?

The government’s (savory/excellent) www.pubmed.gov cites something like 76-pages of research into the effects of watching television.  We know that it’s linked to obesity,  it can be a management tool in epilepsy, eating while watching television increases energy uptake in women, so eating with the telly on may be a bad thing, too.

There is one paper in particular that touches on the more general mechanism that I sense around my Stallone movie experience.  It’s the paper “Media’s role in broadcasting acute stress following the Boston Marathon bombing.”

So what is the “learning” to be had from all this?  Perhaps this is too gross a statement, but it seems it will be borne out over time:

When you are ill – even so much as coming down with a sniffle – immediately institute television watching controls.  Limit television intake to those shows that are nonviolent and educational in nature.  Shows that are “uplifting” would likely be OK, too.

But steer away from shows of unknown content (like my watching “Escape Plan” where there may be subliminal permissions implied (drowning, waterboarding) that may expand the subconscious inclination to “fill in” details that might result in a more serious healthcare episode that the one you’re presently in…

There’s a shaman in your living room.

It’s a sad testament to the acuity of present medical thought that the link between content inputs versus clinical outcomes has been so poorly studied.  But, as I’ve said before, if television had to do an environmental impact statement (or video games, for that matter) there would be a lot better content (and games) around that what we have today.

Don’t hand me a pill in the future:  Hand me the remote, first.

DDT Polio Link

Oh-oh….something for reader George from reader/researcher Nancy who has been collecting data on the DDT-Polio link:

As your reader George was espousing the benefits of DDT, he apparently didn’t hear of DDT exposure being the real cause of polio

(See chart here) 

*Note the close correlation to the spraying of pesticides and the worst polio epidemic in US History. “…Before 1940, relatively small amounts of such chemicals as nicotine, rotenone, pyrethrum, and the aresenicals (sic) were used for insect control. During and following World War II a rapid changeover to DDT, heptachlor, dieldrin, TEPP, malathion, and related compounds occurred.” [5]

I have to admit I didn’t know about the polio-DDT/Pesticide link previously.  Related:  Michael R reports “The Epigentics Heretic” in Science magazine notes that pesticide damage can be passed to future generations.

WoWW:  Slippery Time

In Thursday’s column (I think it was, with cold meds, it could have been any time in the past six centuries) I mentioned a reader’s (Doug) experience with time dilation at moments of high stress like playing football.

More details about the phenomena from Big Al:

George

The time dilation effect is called Tachypsychia.

It’s in Wiki and Massad Ayoob writes about it in his recounting of gunfights.

It is an effect of the “fight or flight” dump of adrenalin, norepinephrine, dopamine, etc.

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Fed Aftermath: End of the World In Sight

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 189 points Wednesday following the Federal Reserve meeting at which the reins of power (money) were handed over to Janet Yellen.  Hopefully, Gen Bernanke’s first task now will be to write a follow-up book to his Essays on the Great Depression.   However, I’d suggest a cooling off period of 4-5 years so he will have additional data about the now-emerging Depression Deux.

You’ll have to pardon my artwork here, since our art department has had massive layoffs and I can’t seem to train the cats to run CorelDraw, but the scrawl on the right shows how Fed policy since the 1999 peak of the Internet Bubble has been a series of serial bubbles over the valley of National Financial Death, through which the River of Ruin runs and threatens to take all with it.

You may recall a while back that IMF bossette Christine Legarde warned of deflation risks, too.  This is not a US-only problem.

But, at the same time, the Fed is discovering that quantitative noodle-pushing has its limits, too, and as a result they took $10-billion of free money off the table at their meeting Wednesday and were hoping that it would not cause panic.

Well a 190-point drop in the Dow may not seem like a big deal, but we can’t help but wonder what will happen when critical support at S&P 1770 breaks.  Will support around 1,725 and then 1,680 be in line to fall, too?

The Fed has a problem:  How to you put a whole country into economic rehab without blowing off another round of jobs?

The rational answer is, you simply can’t which is why – despite looking like a minor rally was expected at the opening of today’s trading – I don’t trust this market any further than I can throw it.  China was down another one half a percentage point last night,   And Japan dropped a further 2.45% and is now threatening the psychologically important 15,000 level.

In early European trading, Germany, France, and England were all down about a third of a percent, which would translate to the Dow down another 50, or so.  But the problem here is this:  Once we get a convincing close under 1,770, then the way for much larger declines open and that’s when you want to have the preps for whatever all topped off.

The Daily Happy Talks

While we wait for the rest of the market to figure out near term direction (bounce then hard down) we can’t help but share the latest GDP report, issued by the Hallelujah Choir over at the Bureau of Economic Analysis…  A quote from the Scripture According to Gubmint, please?

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.1 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and “Comparisons of Revisions to GDP” on page 5). The “second” estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2014.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

All of which would be fine and you might even be able to swallow, except for the fact that year-on-year container counts coming in were DOWN at west coast ports in December.

“Gee, Ure, what do you think is happening, then?”

Oh, golly, let me think:  MAKING UP MONEY!

We will get fresh numbers this afternoon, but when M1 being printed up at a 9.5% annualized increase rate and M2 is printing at 5.8% annualized over the last three months, come on:  What do you think will happen to the paper GDP?

 

Drought: First of Four Million?

No, my estimate of the possible relocation impacts from the drought in California are only hip-shots based on the modern-day impacts from a Dust Bowl-sized relocation scaled up to present day, but already we see the potential for a few of the 12,000 people who live in 17 communities to start “getting mobile” in the next three or four months.

The reason is that 17-communities are on the verge of running out of water.

I suppose that the good news is that a bit of mist and some very light rain is moving through Modesto, CA at this hour, but that won’t last long – before noon it should be ending – and that will leave the area 2.4 inches or more short for the year to date.

On flip side of weather, the snow and ice that slammed Anchorlanta (Atlanbanks?) this week is being blamed for 13-deaths.  I’m not sure terms like “post apocalyptic world” are right.  How about “winter” instead?

Dark Shadows of the PowersThatBe

In yesterday’s Peoplenomics report I unveiled a new concept that I want everyone to be watching for:  the “Gentlemen’s War” between Russia and the West/EU which boldly told Putin in a press conference this week that the EU has expansionist designs that would extend its treacherous reach from “Lisbon to Vladivostok..”

I’m not the only one to pick up the innuendo from the press conference Tuesday…it’s showing up in Ukraine media, but few in the West realize the power grab in play.

While headlines this morning are still trying to whip things up (at the West’s direction) our consulting wargamer sees things similarly:

Putin is probably the most skilled at realpolitik of all the world’s current leaders, doing what is best for ‘his’ Russia vice doing what is morally and/or globally right. 

I like your ‘chess match’ analogy.  Putin completely understands the NWO agenda, while the PTB collectively recognize the formidable power that Putin wields from Europe across the Middle East to the Pacific Ocean.

Obama may be totally in the PTB’s pocket, but Putin remains a dauntingly defiant single-state force that must and will eventually be reckoned with.  That is when things will really get interesting

For those a little short of coffee, here’s the new West/EU global elite/New world order takeover plan:  Pick the “next country” wanted.  Recently, they trying Syria.  So the game was to support the opposition – even if al Qaeda-linked – in order to topple the government.

Now, we see the same smarmy attempt being made in Ukraine…Western dough coming in to agitate and steel influence from Vlad Putin.

Now, since the West is buddy-buddy with AQ (at least in Syria) Putin knows that his hands are tied until after the Sochi games.  But when those are done, look for Putin to start calling out the NOW’ers of the EU who fancy themselves able to steal directly elected government from people foolish enough to follow their crap.  Tossing one more good country (Ukraine) doesn’t turn their sack of crap financial picture.  It just makes them too big to fail…power mongering pricks.

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Coping: Notes from the WoWW

The WoWW is, in case you’ve forgotten, the World of Woo-Woo where we get lots of odd/curious things.

For example, one note from a female reader informed me that..

. So I’ve given up on reading past articles that i had tried to save and really, as I sit here with aluminum foil on my head (my husband took a picture to try and blackmail me, but really, no one I know would even care) all I wanted to find was that article you posted on wearing some aluminum foil ..was it on your head or another body part? I occ. wore a colander and that was long before the movie Signs came out. Last night the very high-pitch tone in my left ear (no hearing aids) was most bothersome and it reminded me to find your article. Long lead up to: what were your instructions in that article, and did people respond?

I politely pointed out that many of the past 13-years of articles on the UrbanSurvival site have been removed in an effort to keep our content down to a more manageable side.  But, back in the day I detailed  a number of experiments of the “foil hat” variety and yes, there does seem to be something of a “calming effect” of wearing metal on the head.

It can’t be just any metal, though.  It needs to cover from the base of the neck, over the ears, and under the chin and so forth.  Ideally, so only the eyes can see and some small holes for air serving the nose and mouth.

The Montana reader says she’ll get back to us with results. But if you try it, see if you don’t also experience  a sense of calm of quietness.  My thinking on this stuff is that it has something to do with the huge amount of radio frequency energy that we have been shoving into humans since shortly after Marconi. 

We weren’t designed with RF resistance in mind and I figure that being the case, if could expect a lot of the craziness of humans at a very deep (un or pre-conscious) level.

Was I Wrong on DDT?

Earlier this week I offered up a link to news reports of a link being found between the use of pesticides and development of Alzheimer’s later in life…

As you’d expect, some people said that sure squared with their experience in life…

Wow almost exact same story with my father, fruit trees, grapes, garden all sorts of sprayers, powders, liquids swirling around him throughout the 50’s.

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Crashes: “Shock Timing” and Futuring

While we are sitting around clearing the financial wreckage and waiting for the Fed to be put in its place by the PowersThatBe Wall St. Division, let me share with you a revised chapter from my book “Real Time Machines: The Future is an Ap,” This arises from ongoing discussions between www.nostracodeus.com brainpower Grady, Mike, and Ures truly.

Peoplenomics update: A Look at Fresh Housing Data

Case-Shiller/S&P Dow Jones housing data is just out…and here’s what it means when I say on an inflation-adjusted basis we’re stuck with 2001 or earlier housing prices… More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW! ||| Subscriber Help Center

Crash Planning: Joy of Cash – Data Bummers Arrive

As the market is likely to rally at the open this morning, I’m once again thinking about moving to cash.  The reason is simple: Earlier this morning the S&P looked like it might rally 7 or 8 points, and although the Fed is not likely to actually do anything about getting off the easy-money addiction of quantitative easing, the new banking rules in China do give some reason for concern.

To be sure, the stories about China’s banking picture do give mixed signals:

“Is China running out of cash?”

“China’s shadow banking woes ‘exaggerated’

“China’s banks: fighting back against online upstarts”

“Looming $500 million default to test China’s banking system”

And “Citic’s bad loan writeoff a sign of strain in China’s mid-sized banks”

All of which casts some very long shadows here in the West, since China is the major player in terms of US debt, despite notions to the contrary.  And, China’s economy is inextricably related to the economy of the US>

As you can see in the data that I’ve compiled from major West Coast Ports for the month of December, there has been no year-on-year growth whatsoever in container volumes coming in to the US west coast.

The one (small) bright spot is that US exports to China and the rest of the world is up, but a 5% increase may simply mean that exports of recycled goods (metals) may be up.

This is setting up another devastating round of price attacks on (what’s left of) the US steel industry.  The Chinese output of steel was reported up slightly at mid January, but their domestic consumption is tapers off.  With no huge auto industry, and with most of the steel for all those high rise buildings in Beijing tapering, we expect to see a continued price decline in Chinese steel.

The other name for this of course is the beginning of pernicious global deflation.  And a further indicator of Chinese demand sinking is the report that “Chinese steel firms losing appetite for overseas iron-or assets.”

For now, out expectations are muted:  It seems likely the Fed will be forced into a “No QE change” position in tomorrow’s meeting.  And, depending on how tough Janet Yellen talks, there might even be a rally of a week or three in length.

But for now, the S&P 1,770 level will be key.  If we break that, then there is a fair chance the market could decline a long, long ways.  Like 1,640, or even below that to 1,540.

And if THAT last number fails, then our long-predicted return to the 2009 market lows (and lower) along with falling metals prices (under $1,000 gold, for example) might very easily come to pass.

Still, our trading indicator only momentarily dropped below the mandatory shorting level on Monday and ended the session above it.

We also note with growing concern that the Baltic Dry index (BDI) (which will be more widely reported by the MSM tomorrow) is down 40 at 1,177 this morning.  Remember, this is the dry bulk cargo pricing and in December the Index was up in the 2,200-2,300 range.  So it has been whacked about in half.  And the index often moves ahead of the major US indices by some number of months.  (Usually around 90 days).

So if I were a betting man, I might be inclined to expect an initially accommodative Fed report tomorrow and that might give the market another month or three to the upside.  We’ll just have to wait and see.  But the main thing to remember is that calling the exact top or bottom of markets is not necessary to make very good returns in the long run.

The real “skill and art” is to consistently catch the middle 80% or larger, long-term, market trends.  If we can do that successfully, then it will be better than most of the ‘herd’.

But for this morning, once we see a substantial rally?  Time to be thinking about the joys of cash and looking closely at leading indicators on global trade.

The odds grow by the day that globalism is on its last legs,but that’s just not apparent to many people yet.  Barry Lynn, I think, over the longer term will be correct in his assessment laid out in his book End of the Line: The Rise and Coming Fall of the Global Corporation.  The book was early (2006) but many of the dynamics have not changed.

And as long as you’re reading about “how the sky is going to fall” be sure to also add Richard Heinberg’s Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines.  Like Barry Lynn’s book, this is another one of those “early, but watch the data” books that came out in 2010.

After you read them, you may have a better appreciation for our “outback” lifestyle and why we’re planning for a world that will likely be vastly different from the world of right now.

I know of several authors who are standing by in the wings with “after the crash books.”  Around here, we don’t hold them in particularly high regard.  Reading about the biggest financial collapse in world history may be interesting after the fact, but our focus both on UrbanSurvival and more so in Peoplenomics.com continues to be on the strategic financial and personal lifestyle decisions than may be implemented ahead of events.

That’s where you have the most “room to move.”  As always, it’s better to be 8-years early than one year too late.  The “prepper movement” sort of get’s it, but most are prepping as part of an “in place” strategy.  And for the majority of Americans, that’s not a good thing; fraught with much higher risks. 

It’s also why the evolution UrbanSurvival will be to the www.ruralpioneer.com™ website, because this has the likelihood of being the kind of mass migration you want to be at the front of.  Not the last one out of Dodge.

Data Bummers

Census has a couple of them, including the drop in Retail Sales (down 7%) in yesterday’s report.

Sales of new single-family houses in December 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 414,000, according to
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 7.0 percent (±17.5%)* below the revised November rate of 445,000, but is 4.5 percent (±19.8%)* above the
December 2012 estimate of 396,000.

We’ll have this morning’s update on the Case Shiller/S&P Housing Index up for Peoplenomics subscribers (hopefully) just ahead of the market open.

And this morning’s Durable Goods report shows an unexpectedly large drop, too:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in
December decreased $10.3 billion or 4.3 percent to
$229.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced
today.

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Coping: Yes, Pesticides Kill

Yeah, as if there had been any question about it.  But a new report out says there’s a link between the use of pesticide DDT and development of Alzheimer’s later in life.  According to the EPA website:

DDT (dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane) was developed as the first of the modern synthetic insecticides in the 1940s. It was initially used with great effect to combat malaria, typhus, and the other insect-borne human diseases among both military and civilian populations and for insect control in crop and livestock production, institutions, homes, and gardens. DDT’s quick success as a pesticide and broad use in the United States and other countries led to the development of resistance by many insect pest species.

The book that spilled the beans on the early dangers of DDT – a classic of investigative reporting in book form – was Rachel Carson’s “Silent Spring”:”

The New Yorker started serializing Silent Spring in June 1962, and it was published in book form (with illustrations by Lois and Louis Darling) by Houghton Mifflin on Sept. 27. When the book Silent Spring was published, Rachel Carson was already a well-known writer on natural history, but had not previously been a social critic. The book was widely read—especially after its selection by the Book-of-the-Month Club and the New York Times best-seller list—and inspired widespread public concerns with pesticides and pollution of the environment. Silent Spring facilitated the ban of the pesticide DDT[3] for agricultural use in 1972 in the United States.

The use of DDT has been contentious, seems like, most of my adult life.  Looking back on my childhood, I sometimes wonder if my father’s long goodbye from Alzheimer’s was related to pesticides. 

I remember as a kid we had a number of fruit trees on our property up in Seattle. And a persistent problem with weeds.  So products like DDT, malathion, and an assortment of othere “things you wouldn’t do today, necessarily, we commonly used.

Remember, this was at a time when “long-chain science” had not really evolved.  People used whatever worked and the long-term cause and effect (like smoking) was just not questioned.

Today, there’s evolving evidence that this lack of understanding about the things we put in the ground – and in our food – is going to come back and haunt us for a very long time, even though the US discontinued DDT earlier than most of the rest of the world.

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