If you’re like me (a child of the “duck and cover” era), it has probably occurred to you that we shouldn’t be living in a world full of nuclear weapons (and people willing to pull the trigger).
But facts are facts and some of these include a world full of people, a world which is running short of new technologies and “must have products” to the point that there is seemingly little to spur further growth. And, besides, we spent on this money on arming ourselves to the teeth, and so what good are the arms if we don’t use them once in a while?
I thought you’d enjoy a quick look at how the map of the boundary world between the US/West/Europe and Russia looks today because it illustrates the military and economic standoff that is evolving even as the G-7 (minus the naughty Putsy) sits down to work out its economic strategy. Behold! Ure’s view of things!
One of the reasons to invest in a copy of Microsoft Streets and Trips 2013 is so that you can sit in the comfort of your (pre-WW II) home and take a look at how the battle lines are being drawn.
“The Front” as I’ve drawn it above is a dashed line that represents the boundary between spheres of influence. At the top left, we see the blue (EU/NATO/US) pushing in on Ukraine, trying to solidify the independence of the country to become another pawn in the EU’s chess game to expand all the way across Russia.
Russian interests (black arrows) are not about to sit back and let Europe get away with European expansionist efforts that failed before under Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler, and now, well, we’ll see how the EU does. For now, the dashed line in Ukraine has moved decidedly west as Ukraine has pulled all of its forces out of Crimea and those that remain have thrown in with Moscow.
Dropping down into Turkey, the reason for the Russian strategic interest here is obvious as hell: They have control of the northern part of the Black Sea, but the choke point in terms of naval forces and trade is Turkey.
Which is why what is going on?
A look at Turkey headlines this morning shows that along that dashed border between Russia and West, there was the shoot-down this weekend of a Syrian jet which supposedly had violated Turkish airspace. The West is doing everything it can to overthrow Syrian plans for elections, which seem bound to occur anyway.
And that gets us down to the lower left/center of our map where you can see the hard red line which is what keeps the Russians from glomming onto the Iraqi countryside, along with all its oil and not only that, I hope you notice how that war conveniently set up a buffer between Russia and the Saudis, which might go a long ways toward explaining 9/11 but that’s a whole other discussion that becomes much more speculative. Except, we note in passing, that there was a strategic reason we “invaded the wrong country.”
And off on the lower right, we see how the West/US has grayed out the Afghanistan area, because it’s a very difficult area to supply, being surrounded by less-than-friendlies.
Thoughtful analysts are, therefore, looking at Turkey and wondering if the West will be able to “pull it out” in the final half of this game. The report this morning in the Jerusalem Post offers “Analysis: Turkey as a model of Muslim democracy in shambles” and that is an understatement.
The whole notion of Democracy in Shambles is echoing elsewhere in the region, as the last remnants of the Project for a New American Century (and supporters of that theory still in our US State Department) not only blew it by pressing wrongly with the neo-Nazis/extremists ion Ukraine, but seem likely to do so again in Turkey.
The whole “control Twitter” was (Turkey this weekend accused Twitter of defamation) seemed for a while like Twitter might be turned on, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The Turks are talking about “ripping out the roots” of social networks, and that’s because they saw how the socials were used as revolution promotion media in Ukraine. Duh!
And elsewhere, how has the Project for a New American Century scorecard worked out? It depends who you ask. The government of Egypt is on financial life support while this morning sentencing 529 members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death.
The US/West has some hard lines on maps – and the Suez Canal is one of them, while Turkey’s Strait of Dardanelles is the other.
The Dardanelles us why the next few dance steps in Waltzing to WW III should involve Turkey. And Wikipedia provides this bit of history that should help put this assertion into perspective:
In July, 1946, the Soviet Union sent a note to Turkey proposing a new régime for the Dardanelles that would have excluded all nations except the Black Sea powers. The second proposal was that the straits should be put under joint Turkish-Soviet defence. This meant that Turkey, the Soviet Union, Bulgaria and Romania would be the only states having access to the Black Sea through the Dardanelles.