FedCoins: Peoplenomics Annual Forecast (Part3)

This weekend, we wrap up the remaining four subject areas in our Seven Major Systems model of how (physical) life works for humans as we peer into 2014. We’ll hatch an answer to Bitcoins in our discussion (finance: subset virtual) about a concept I call FEDCOINs. You will be flat-ass amazed at how many of our financial woes they could solve both short and long-term. (Doing our annual forecast is a joy when a decent breakthrough concept bonks me on the head.

Triskaidekaphobia for Markets?

I don’t think so, but the devil is in the details.

When I looked earlier, markets had taken on a slightly bearish bias as the Dow was heading toward a lower opening.  But the news du jour that we should focus on is the Producer Price Index report that’s just out:

“The Producer Price Index for finished goods edged down 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods decreased 0.2 percent in October and 0.1 percent in September.

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Coping: With Blood Red Moons

A number of readers have asked me “What do you think the four blood moons will bring?  ould you discuss it in your column sometime?”

Huh?  About here, the I-Ching Inbox, that seems to deliver hints and clues about how the Universe operates came through…in spades.

It was an email from my friend Chris Tyreman who’s head of that small Jewish studies group up in Canada which for years now as quietly been working an embedded “error correction” system built into ancient Hebrew.  Upon discovery they have become quite expert at getting to the original meanings of many thinks Biblical.  An example may help.

One of the larger linguistic debates over interpretation deals with the often-cited “Thou shalt not kill” Commandment.  In some versions of the Bible, this is said to be taken literally.  Others, however, tune the Commandment to “Thou shalt not murder.”

This distinction is important, especially if you’re trying to raise an army to go conquering far-off places.  But, when the Chronicle Project’s technology is applied, the meaning comes closer to “Thou shalt not leave a member of your tribe alone in the wilderness…:” or words roughly to that effect.

Since the “wilderness” is a big, bad place (before the days of GPS, beef jerky, trail mix, Sig Sauer small arms and AK long arms) leaving someone in the wilderness might be sort of like killing them, or murdering, or a combination of both.  Plus, as an added bonus, that person’s bloodline dies off when they do, so only the cooperative members of a tribe survive.

That approach to Human Resources is a longer topic for another day, namely how humans can either breed totally at random, or, over generations of cooperative efforts, can reduce the prevailing level of anti-social behavior with a few “rules” that effectively prevent the “worst of the worst” of humans from reproducing. 

Eventually, though, social rules that differentiate fade into the background.  Along comes a modern day movement (like young Christianity)  based on “best practices” of those who came before.  But as their good/right/tuned efforts to move along get bigger, they are – as always seems to happen – taken over and changed-up.  And this is where something like a “corporate Church” begins to reinterpret the “best practices” and monetize it.  It is spun into something new and in the process, some of the “best practices” get all wrangled up and wrapped around the axel.

Which is why Led Zeppelin’s “…buying a stairway to Heaven…” lyric is so powerful, poignant, and historically astute.  Who would have thought? 

So what does this have to do with an email from Chris Tyreman about his irritation about Blood Red Moons and his irritation with end of the world theories?” 

Read for yourself:

Jews and the Blood Red Moons.

Ed has been sending me info on the next upcoming blood red moons in Israel as some Pastors have been touting them as a harbinger of things to come.  So I did an article on it for our upcoming newsletter.  I thought it might be up your alley

Seven back-to-back, blood-red moons have fallen on the first day of Passover and Sukkot, with the eighth time coming in 2014 and 2015

Ed was wondering what my thoughts on them are.

So let’s muddle everything with the facts:

First, you might want to know what a blood moon is, so… Here’s an article from EarthSky that’s on point.

It is the Hunter’s Moon, in skylore, is also sometimes called the Blood Moon. Why? Probably because it’s a characteristic of these autumn full moons that they appear nearly full – and rise soon after sunset – for several evenings in a row. Many people see them when they are low in the sky, shortly after they’ve risen, at which time there’s more atmosphere between you and the moon than when the moon is overhead. When you see the moon low in the sky, the extra air between you and the moon makes the moon look reddish. Voila.

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The Pause then Claus

Editor in Chief, Zeus the Cat, suggested “Paws then Claus” as our opening headline this morning instead of our obscure reference to the drop in markets in order to build a base for the “Santa Claus Rally” that often happens at this time of the year.

“What the hell do PAWS have to do with the market” I asked.

“Scratch profits, you idiot!” he meowed back. “What goes with PAWS is CLAWS in my world and that would be a nice play off the other fatso  – the one in the red suit.”

It’s comments like that had get him kicked out even on sub-freezing mornings.

Still, Katzenclaus is too strange a way to begin, so how about we start putting down some bets on the Fed meeting next week?  More than anything, the market is sending a message to the Fed about it’s deepest, darkest fears:  Namely that rational economics might return.  think of this decline as lobbying.

To be sure, the (bad) joke of a budget agreement isn’t gong to qualify, but. NBC’s got a handy guide to use how it will impact your life is on their site over here.  The main feature I can see if that if you’re planning to travel next year, buy the tickets ahead of time, although that may not insulate you from the financial thuggery.

Oh, and think about shorting airlines, hotels, rental car outfits, and anyone else who depends on people moving about the country for revenue.  But not till we maybe get one more pop into January…we’ll see.

Of course the budget deal would also reduce cost of living adjustments for military retirees under age 62, which when you think about it is breach of contract for someone who has served the country for 20-years under one “deal” and gets out, only to find the crap-hounds from hell are then going to rewrite “the deal.”

But such behavior (decline of honor and bond of a man’s word) don’t mean crap anymore, which is why ‘Mercia stands where America Great used to be perched.

You ever wonder how many other “Snowdens in the wings” are out there watching the nation’s ever-expanding tendency toward breach fealty to contract?

Out here in Texas, you can still shake a man’s hand and have it mean something.  You might be mightily disappointed to try that in Washington…know what I mean?

Retail Sales

Figure are just out this morning…

“The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $432.3 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5%) from the
previous month, and 4.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2012. Total sales for the September through November 2013 period were up 4.1
percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2013 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to
+0.6 percent (±0.3%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from October 2013, and 4.6 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Auto and other motor vehicle
dealers were up 10.9 percent (±2.1%) from November of 2012 and nonstore retailers were up 9.4 percent (±2.1%) from last year.
The scheduled release dates for 2014 are as follows: January

The news out this morning didn’t breathe any fire into the markets which look to open flat to down, since the number was right at consensus. 

While this is for the month of   November   it still demonstrates a sense that people are out on a a ”get it while we can” spree.  The big towering gray bar on the chart up above is retail general merch and it was up strongly.  Cars are falling compared to past deal-slinging…

Speaking of which…

Warhammer Notes: That New Military Command

As if the world wasn’t a dangerous enough place with three new wars threatening in 2014 (We have Israel-Iran, China-Japan, and West versus Central African Republic) we now have another military player flexing muscles:

Nature abhors a vacuum. So too do certain Gulf states with similar economic interests. 

Note the “Gulf nations to create joint military command” report.

As the U.S.

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Coping: Wujo and Personal Clinical Trials

“George, you know that favorite frying pan of yours, the one you love to do eggs in?  Have you seen it?” Elaine asked at breakfast Wednesday.

Oh-oh.  Not again…

We live in a very modest little manufactured home out at the end of the string (life past cell phone coverage) and there are only the 2 1/2 of us who would know anything about this frying pan:.  Elaine, me, and my retired brother-in-law.  But his quarters are off in another building with its own cooking capabilities, bathroom, and so on.  Sure, he comes over for breakfast most mornings, but except for boiling water and making oatmeal, or toast, or whatever, it’s just me and Elaine in the kitchen.  He doesn’t borrow dishes.

And we do have a few more pans, I suppose, than some people.  But we both get a tremendous amount of enjoyment from cooking, and I like to keep the “chef-wrist” tuned up, but doing perfect flips of two eggs over easy.  Great for hash browns, too.  To do this, you need a particular kind of pan.  One with very gently sloping sides to it. It went missing – on its own.

So there we were…wondering if the local ghosts (“the visitors”) had made off with another one of our goodies.

So we took the kitchen apart, including the oven, in which our cast iron gear lives so we don’t have to worry about mixing it with the Cuisinart hard-alloy, which would likely be ruined by just being around the cast iron.

Anyway, we both looked for about 15-minutes.  Then passed it off as simply gone.

And hour later Elaine exclaimed “Found it!”

Turned out that it was under the pizza pan, also in the oven.  We also season and dry it there, yada yah.

The problem is that it was there earlier…at least I didn’t see it when I looked, as the pizza pan was right on the rack…not above it as it was when Elaine showed me.

All of which was pretty damn interesting…It points out how Wujo-like events can often be solved:  You are simply tricked by perception and expectation.

Or, did it just return from the “wherever” and decide to pop up under a pizza pan where neither of us would put it, at least while in our right minds.  Deep rabbit hole there.

Still, the experience underscored for me that when people experience Wujo, they may simply be experiencing absolutely “normal” things going on that live below the perception threshold.

And then there are stories like this one from reader Georgann:

Hi there George,

A few weekends ago both my husband and I had something weird happen. I woke up in the early wee hours, with extreme time disorientation. I thought it might be weekday. And in my mind I was trying to find something to reorient myself, then I remember that I hadn’t met a friend for coffee yet, which was scheduled for Sunday morning.

Later that morning my husband wakes me up thinking it Monday and I needed to get up for work. He was surprised that it wasn’t. And you know, the whole day was off about 3 hours for both of us. It was very unsettling.

Would this fit as a WuJo?

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Peoplenomics Annual Forecast (2)

Housing, Food, and Communications are in our sights this morning. In Saturday’s subscriber report, I put forth some market expectations for 2014 and it seems only right to look at the translation of that forecast into possible cost impacts in specific areas of life. While the (false) glee of a budget agreement may seem like a grand thing, it is merely an effort to postpone the inevitable conclusion which must occur when demand for service – paid for by taxes – runs into the hard reality of limited taxing power as the number and wages of working humans declines. As the old demographer said, “If you want to know the future, start with birth rates…” But first, we’ll have coffee, check out some headlines, and see what our Trading Model says about the period immediately ahead.

Pick a War–Any War

“Dot connecting class is now in session.  We have a whole string of dots, but do follow along and you can connect them as we go…”

In an article back on Monday, November 25th, I had a crazy dream described in “Winds of Noumenon” that related to Harriers on carriers, sitting on the deck.  I thought it was a goofy, although potentially revealing dream at the time about what’s ahead. 

Two days later the news stories begins to increase around the word Harrier.  As in “Harrier by Jonathan Glancey, review” and lots of others.

Heck, the word pops up all over the place.  Shows up as a video game (Space Harrier for Nintendo 3DS) and it’s the name of an oil exploration ship the Sea Harrier which is on the move.

But while things like this slowly come up in the language surveys from our www.nostracodeus.com project, we also can’t seem to put down the idea that maybe there’s a war out there on its way.  Mid to late 2014.

OK: Where?   As of this morning we have two leading candidates.

Our first nominee for Harriers to be used (thus fill some more headlines) would be in the Central African Republic which (since trumped-up Syria didn’t work out so well) is coming in as the stealth replacement war to keep the West solvent based on war spending.

Two French soldiers, for example, has been killed in fighting there, as detailed in this BBC report.  And, since your tax dollars have made it possible for us to wage war everywhere, the US has ordered support for the efforts to disarm people in the Central African Republic, (CAR)  as well. 

As soon as that was done, US SecDef Chuck Hagel put out the world to start moving war materiel to the region.

OK…why?  Well, a check of the CIA World Factbook tells us (among other things and to borrow from their work (paid for with tax money, so WTF)…

Timber and diamonds account for most export earnings, followed by cotton. Important constraints to economic development include the CAR’s landlocked position, a poor transportation system, a largely unskilled work force, and a legacy of misdirected macroeconomic policies. Factional fighting between the government and its opponents remains a drag on economic revitalization. Since 2009 the IMF has worked closely with the government to institute reforms that have resulted in some improvement in budget transparency, but other problems remain. The government’s additional spending in the run-up to the election in 2011 worsened CAR’s fiscal situation. Distribution of income is extraordinarily unequal. Grants from France and the international community can only partially meet humanitarian needs. In 2012 the World Bank approved $125 million in funding for transport infrastructure and regional trade, focused on the route between CAR’s capital and the port of Douala in Cameroon. After a two year lag in donor support, the IMF’s first review of CAR’s extended credit facility for 2012-15 praised improvements in revenue collection but warned of weak management of spending.

We could also toss in that China is looking to expand its influence and ties with Africa and (look surprised here) this is likely a new front in my (hypothesized but real-looking nevertheless) Manufacturer’s Resource Wars with even more at stake than Afghanistan.  Cheap labor and resources plus diamonds.

Oh, and you did catch the involvement of the IMF which – if you’re read John Perkin’s The Secret History of the American Empire: The Truth About Economic Hit Men, Jackals, and How to Change the World, ought to have caught your eye.  Wars for banks and industries, eh?

Well, seems to me that Harriers would be well-suited to a country which may not have a lot of long airstrips.  So maybe this is where things point?

The other war-in-the-making is the one between Japan (or what’s left of it post Fukushima) and China.  This one, says our resident war gamer, could be a dandy:

“George,

The headline sure is an attention grabber! “China-Japan Could Lead To WW III.

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Coping: Business Model or Exploitation

I’m just fond as hell of the phrase “Everything’s a Business Model.”  But now, I may be forced to a revision of that outlook due to a conversation I had with a buddy of mine (Howard) last night which has really given me “cause to pause” for a bit and rethink the whole EBM concept.

I don’t think Howard would mind me sharing this.  He called and we got to talking about this, that, and some of the very high-end hi-fi gear he’s selling on eBay. 

Turns out, one eBay lately, there’s a new kind of exploit which has been developed by unethical buyers.  They buy something, take delivery, and then swap out a bunch of parts.  In electronics it might be tubes, highly prized original knobs, and things like that. 

Then, they turn around and exploit the seller by demanding a return – and they send a stripped out piece of junk back!

Doesn’t happen on every sale, of course.  But it has led to sellers ((including my son, who sells things once in a while) putting in long, involved disclaimers about “no returns” and “buyer agrees to no return under any condition” and that kind of thing.

You see the point?  Yes, I’m sure eBay has had issues with unethical sellers, but now they also seem to have occasional unethical buyers.  And might that, I wonder, over time imperil the eBay business model?  Hmmm…

And  we got on to talking about the book he’s writing and how economics of ebooks push out.  He’s been writing a cookbook (it’s really good since he is nothing short of a phenomenal cook) and he was thinking about releasing it as an Amazon ebook.

One thing led to another and I explained how ebooks, while fun, and not a major source of income like they once could be.  The reason?  Everyone and his mother/brother/son who has delusions of becoming a famous writer is cranking out ebooks on Amazon, hand over fist.

Some of the ebooks there, self-published and in the 99-cents to $3-dollar price range are really good.  But, the other side of it is that there’s a lot of trash and slop out there as well.  Collections of crap copy-pasted from Wikipedia and then sold.  That takes either some gumption but more fitting is the word exploit.  

You might remember that I’ve written a couple of ebooks myself, such as “How to Live on $10,000 a Year, Or Less…”  When that ebook first came out, before Amazon self-publishing came along it was sold directly on the internet as a .pdf delivered by email, it was $9.95 and it sold maybe 1,500 copies over a 5-year period.

That was then.  Along came the digital thieves and the book value has gone pretty near to zero now, although I think it’s still full of good information.

But it has been something of a turkey on Amazon, due to the huge increase in the number of ebooks for Kindle.

Then there’s a rise of writing “schools” which are now teaching people how to crank out 99-cent to $3.99 ebooks all day long, and flood the market with a huge number of titles instead of flooding the market with highest quality.  The theory is that if you write enough you will get some sales.

In other words, Amazon has been part of the very “commoditization of writing” that mirros what has gone wrong in many other parts of life.  Everything’s a commodity, now.

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Monday At The Rock Pile

OK, corporate wage slave, up at an ‘em:  Time to jump on the treadmill like a good little hamster and press your nose toward the cheese for another week…all so we can pay interest which will accrue to the Uber Klassen so they, in turn, won’t have to work and can reinvest their money in continuing to buy corrupt politicians who don’t listen to the people, preferring instead the poison lies of the lobbyists instead.

Boy, am I ever a motivator, or what?

The good news, such as it is, holds that we are likely to see a 25% decline in the Dow and other major indices when people figure out how bad the economy really is. 

If you didn’t catch it, the UK Telegraph article “Europe repeating all the errors of Japan as deflation draws closer” is a real eye-opener.

What people don’t remember is that the Japanese Nikkei 225 index (roughly the Japanese equivalent of our Dow Jones average) was up nearing 40,000 points (yen) back in 1989. Overnight, the Nikkei had a huge rally (2.29%) but even so, it’s been stuck in this area (closing  at 15,650) seemingly forever.

“Wait!  You mean the Japanese market was 2 1/2 times higher 25-years ago?”

Well, yeah, duh.  Welcome to Depression economics.

That’s evident when you look at the “max timeline” chart of the ^N225 over here at Yahoo Finance, dude.  It also shows the problem that Europe is running into and where the US is going, as well.  The only thing we’re missing is the killer radiation levels, but give it time. 

Crude Lingo Alert: [Remember SBD – silent but deadly – farts?  Fukushima’s like that…]

One of our readers asked this morning if I could explain the robust growth in GDP.  Well, one way to look at it is “channel stuffing” by manufacturers, who are desperate to hit year-end sales targets so they are pushing crap into the warehouses of retailers.  No target hit?  No bonus…

The retailers, in turn, because of the collapsing cost of money (read: zero percent interest rates effectively) can lock in goods cheap today (they believe)  on the theory that prices will come zooming upward as soon as the “recovery” kicks in. 

“Rut Roh” Scooby. Lil’ tardy on that one…

This is all quite circular, don’t you see?  Channel-stuffing makes jobs which makes demand, which creates jobs, which creates spending, which creates channel “sell-through” which is why Ures truly expects some hellacious deals to be had on everything under the Sun in January. Someone in retail is going to wake the ‘f up in January and start to dump.

Check this out:  A chart (through November) of the total business inventories…got it?

Now, let’s look at inventories in 2009 because that was a pretty good indicator of how these things work.  Back then we had…um….call it $1.33 trillion in business inventories.

What would the equivalent level be today?  It would be about $1.447 trillion, using the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator over here.  But, as you can see, inventories are at about $1.68 trillion (plus or minus a can of soup) today, which means inventory levels are 16% higher, on an inflation-adjusted basis, in the last four 1/2 years.

That’s a mighty big swing.

So:  Here’s what I’m speculating will happen:

a.  The Fed will hint at increasing rates when they meet in late January.

b.  People in retailing will look at their inventories (up 16% on a real basis, remember?) and scream “Holy shit!  How are we going to afford all this inventory if we actually have to pay interest on it?”  Free money was such a nice ride….

c.  Inventory dumping will begin…

d.  Which means profits will fall…

e.  Which means stocks will fall….(*because earnings will fall)

f.  Which means the Fed is now locked into permanent money printing in order to keep the whole financial system from going KA-BLOOEY!  We become like the Japanese!

g.  Which will set off another round of job cuts…

h.  Which will set off a further decline in real estate prices…  (Also due in part to the prospect of those real estate-binging venture groups facing the prospect of actually paying someone back with interest, which is why housing prices are about to level off and maybe head face down…Banks being under pressure to unload their REO (read estate owned) too…

i.  As soon as this dynamic is realized, then what’s left of commercial real estate falls on its butt (again) since with home office automation, what’s the point of paying big bucks for an office?  Everyone has Skpe, Broadband, and Starbucks!  Toss in online banking and who needs a building?  Ever use Quickbooks Online?  Your accounting department can be in Bozeman.

I could, of course go on, but it would make a mighty messy and depressing report.  So I decided to keep it really light and uplifting this morning (and this is the best I could come up with?):

OK, corporate wage slave, up at an ‘em:  Time to jump on the treadmill like a good little hamster and press your nose toward the cheese for another week…all so we can pay interest which will accrue to the Uber Klassen so they, in turn, won’t have to work and can reinvest their money in buying corrupt politicians who don’t listen to the people, preferring instead the poison lies of the lobbyists instead.

If you’re not saving money hand over fist, you’re screwed. 

And even if you are saving money, you’re screwed anyway, because when all this begins to roll (it’s the Debtberg, remember?  90 percent of the Debtberg is invisible…) you’re going to be subject to a “wealth tax” which will roll globally in order for the PowersThatScrewedThingsUp (PTSTU) will take one last turn at the global citizens financial gang-bang before the global version of the French Revolution comes around.

I expect America, unlike other countries (think Iceland) will call BS on what’s coming, but we could roll over Cyprus and Greece-like.  Depends on the marketing.  But if Healthcare is a template, there is no alternative to becoming a Prepper.

The realities were Friday (and still are, Monday) that:

  1. You can’t have more people getting free money than paying taxes
  2. You need REAL jobs in order to pay taxes.  Flipping burgers is counted as a “manufacturing job now” notes a similarly cynical reader.
  3. You don’t have jobs because of automation and robotics and 10-an-hour foreigners.
  4. Until robotics are taxed on parity with humans, and the lie of job-wrecking imports is dispensed with,  this is a one way ride to the financial slaughterhouse.

You see why I love getting up and writing on Monday?  Things are just so crisp and clear…

See Dr. Marc Faber’s comments along the same line, too: “World Center Bankers are going to Bankrupt the World.”  Yeah, we noticed…

In spite of reality, the markets looked flat this morning because the 7% unemployment figure is all based on free money which is unsustainable and as some point the markets will think that part through, too.  I sense one more blow off to the upside and new all time highs.

Then duck.

More after this…

Obamacare:  The latest nightmares

…is the report that “New affordable Care US health plans will exclude top hospitals.”

I don’t know as I’d go so far as to write something like “Shock Claim: Obama worse than a communist.” 

The Russian people brought the Soviet Empire down.  But here in ‘Merica, the People can’t bring down the Lobbyist Empire…far most entrenched. Which is why the Russian peeps had a leg up on us…

Making the rounds on discussion boards are posts like this one which claims “Obamacare seeks to segregate patients/doctors by ethnic races…”  Is this “giving the customers what they want” or something more sinister?  I look forward to my liberal pals to arguing both sides of this one…

Madness on Bordering

Over on the “Tea Party Command Center” site, we see “Texas defies feds: We shut the border down ourselves, said Lt. gov…”

NK: The Urge to Purge

Morning seems like a fine time to cover this:  A purge in the ranks of the North Koreans as the kid at the helm has kicked out the party old-line power broker (uncle) who was not playing nicey nice with the People’s resources…

Clearly Kim Jong Un “gets it” – namely you have to feed the People…and feed them an occasional scapegoat to hold hunger at bay.  And Uncle will do, nicely.  Shows that no one is above the “law”.

Good management.  But what about Auntie?  Remember, she (and her hubby) defected to the West, had plastic surgery and are in hiding…

Just a guess:  These North Korean leader/people have some serious unresolved family problems!  Poster family for dysfunctional.

Global Warming Joke

The joke’s on Al. It was the Sun, all along.,…d’oh! 

Here’s the latest just out this morning from the Solar Weather Prediction Center which has been counting the extreme lack of sunspots in what I’m selling as Ure’s Minimum…

Australia is getting snow in their summer.

Record snowfalls around Texas from the storm this weekend.  None here, thanks, but colder’n hell.

Cold snap in Oregon.

Point for Gore: Record cold temperature in the Antarctic is being disputed.

I run hot and cold on this climate thing…(wink-wink, budge-nudge)

Laughable Headlines & Stories Department:

“Congress Readies a Year-End Dash” flashes the Wall St. Journal.  That’s as believable as Ures truly joining the Bolshoi.

Blah, blah blah, Kardashian, blah,blah, yada, yada…

“US Tech companies call for more controls on surveillance.”  Yes!

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Coping: With a Rare Book Review

It’s not often that I find very much useful in life,  maybe because my life is so damn complicated. 

There’s this here website, there’s the odd client project (slow due to the “recovery” that’s going on, lol), developing a server for a “black project” with a friend/client, building the new room onto house, finishing restoration of a tube-type ham radio for my son, and planning for the kitchen rebuild ahead.  All while keeping up the accounting/taxes and staying current on flying.  Then there’s the www.nostracodeus.com project and fine-tuning our Trading Model for Peoplenomics subscribers…Say…did I mention the four books I’m writing?

Like I said: Complicated

But I’m not the only person in this pickle – since you’re either there or remember it from your own recent experience,

So this morning I can’t say enough good things about Gary Keller’s book The ONE Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results which will run you $17 bucks at Amazon. Or, if you have a Kindle, it will set you back about $15 bucks here: The ONE Thing.

If you’re already struggling to find time (but still somehow have $264(!!)  laying around, there’s the The One Thing in 30 Minutes – The Expert Guide to Gary Keller and Jay Papasan’s Critically Acclaimed Book.

Now the reason for the recommendation:  It’ll help you focus on doing what needs doing.

In a way, it’s similar in thinking to William Oncken’s classic book Managing Management Time which is still available.  Oncken’s been writing about time management almost forever, seems.  My friend Gaye of www.backdoorsurvival.com and I were talking bout his work (and others in time management) back in the early to mid 1970’s.

Two points from these:

First, a couple of readers have asked “How do you do all the stuff you say you do?”   Well, here are some hints:

  1. Build “walls” in your life.  Allocate only so much time to Task A and when it’s done (as much as it ever will be in allotted time).  Move on to Task B.
  2. Make a list to keep yourself focused. A short list of a dozen “outcomes” you’re building.
  3. Streamline and find every efficiency you can in order to get things done.  The idea is to get things done, not to reinvent the wheel at every turn.

Here’s what I did Sunday, just for discussion:

a.  Tested a new breakfast (details in the “Around he Ranch” part in a minute.

b.  Solve a half-dozen damn difficult computer issues around the house: All kinds of new security updates, anti-virus and the firewalls, defrags, file checking, speed tuning, network rearranging.

c.  Made spaghetti.

d.  Searched for the  easiest way to build a LAMP server… and found the Linux version of XAMMP

e.

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Just out for Subscribers: Peoplenomics Annual Forecast (1)

While it’s true that I have made more money on the short side of the market than the long side, it’s also true that I’m pretty much an agnostic. That’s because the market is going to move as it will. So anyone who undertakes to manage their own money is well advised to understand hard reality. Toward this, a few classic books exist, such as William Gann’s “Truth of the Stock Tape.” This morning’s report will be nice, short, and to the point as we consider what may be out there in 2014.

Numbers for Breakfast and a Side of Sausage

A nice cold, snowy, wintry morning deserves something nice and hot for breakfast.  So along with the usual two-cups worth of reading material today we’ll serve up some hot economic data and a side of sausage.

Our first serving is the Jobs Almighty number which lives more formally in the Employment Situation Report just released by the Labor Department.

The unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.9 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.0 percent, declined in November. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff decreased by 377,000. This largely reflects the return to work of federal employees who were furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown.

As always, we look at the Labor Participation Rate which is 63% this morning, and in a Christmas-sized miracle, it’s up 2-10th’s of one percent.

Dow futures have spikes to 86 up on the Dow.  Crack may be this good, but the jobs number is legal.

“OK, Ure, how’d that come about?”

Heck if I know.  Looks to me like the economy might really be getting some traction.  Free money has to go somewhere.  And how many quantitative whatchamacallits are we at now?

Even the CES Birth/Death Model which estimates jobs into existence decreased the happy talk by 15,000 jobs.

As to whether people who had extended benefits run out this month (many more in coming months) are in some kind of statistical limbo won’t be known for a few months.

Meantime, we have the monthly PhD’s flipping burger’s number which is the underemployed and underutilized people which show up in the U-6 data.  This improved a good bit down to 13.2% from 13.8% last month.

Magic of seasonal employment, methinks.  Pardon me if I hold the Ho-Ho until March.

Or, at least hold it until you read about disappearing incomes in the Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is also out this morning:

Personal income decreased $10.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $23.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $32.7 billion, or 0.3 percent.  In September, personal income increased $64.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $62.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $23.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, based on revised estimates.

More people working – for less money!  Exactly the kind of thing to expect in a lifestyle collapsing economy, like I’ve been saying.

The punch line part is the Personal Savings Rate reference; always a knee-slapper:

“Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $604.9 billion in October, compared with $660.7 billion in September.

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Coping: A Chat With Prepperclaus

“Ho, ho, ho, George, of COURSE I’d be pleased to do an interview with you!”

I’d spied a fat old man, mid 70’s by the look of him,  wandering around our ranch/outpost out by the carport in the wilds of East Texas.  He was staring down the barrel of my 9 mm Ruger and acting like it was an every day occurrence..

Upon hearing my command “Halt!  Raise your hands slowly…” he announced an unlikely claim:

“I am the REAL Prepperclaus and you need to interview me.”

“Are you shittin me?  I’ve got a SWAT Team on speed dial, mister.  So just keep your hands where I can see them and explain yourself.  This is Texas and this is private posted land.  Only a damn idiot would be here uninvited and you look close enough to an idiot for me…”

“OK, OK, I know you’re a little tense, George, but please allow me to explain.

In your column yesterday you hinted that Santa might be a marketing figure and it was a very catchy article.  Not viral, but it did  spawn a lot of talk among the elves, it did.

But you know, Georgie, most of us Joy and Mirth spreaders really are joyous at this time of year.  And your reader,  The Wizard,  was right…you did miss reporting on some of the really evil spirits that put on shows at this time of year…like Black Peter, also known as Zwarte Piet.  Heard of him?

Georgie?  Who was this guy?

“How’d you know about that?  That was in a secured email file…are you connected with the NSA?  We pay our taxes, we inform people, and we keep a crack legal team at the ready…”

“Ho, ho, ho, that’s a good one!  Crack and legal right next to one another…oh, you’re the funny writer…Ho….ho….ho….

No, you silly skeptic, I AM the original Prepperclaus and I’m here to spread the joy of preparation and preparedness.

You were assigned to me by the Head Office because of your Claus clauses, and because the Claus cause was paused by your lack of prepping advice which people need to get from breaking news.”

“Huh?”  I lowered the Ruger, but just slightly.  Whoever this guy was, he was old, didn’t look threatening, and this was getting to be an interesting conversation..

“Your column yesterday reported many things, but of all the headlines you didn’t focus enough on the arrival of bad weather.

And what did you do about it?”

“You mean in the column?”

“Yes, yes…what did you DO about it…”

“Well, I mentioned that Global Warming was having it’s ass kicked.  And I figured when ass-high snow drifts start  stranding people, they’d figure out that this was the time to break out the winter storm gear and get ready for the crap to hit the fan…power outages are something people should ALWAYS be prepared for…”

“But, what did YOU DO after you wrote the column yesterday?”

“Well, I got out my landline phone…it’s an AT&T 210 Corded Phone, Black, 1 Handset and for under $10 bucks on Amazon…”

“And then?”

“I took one of those phones from our supplies over to the house, one to my office, checked the flashlights, and wrote down the local power outage reporting number.  Then I taped 3-by-5 cards with the phone number to each of the phones.

Panama dug out the backup 10,000 BTU ventless propane heating unit for the house and hauled it over.  I checked the small propane tank for Panama’s apartment and the backup catalytic heater for there…

Then Elaine and I baked bread (sourdough French) in the bread machine…”

“And did you ever mention that you’d purchased a bread machine?  Specifically, according to our records a…hmmm…ah… an Oster CKSTBRTW20 2-Pound Expressbake Breadmaker, White for sixty-three dollars?”

“Well, no, I guess I hadn’t mentioned it …but do you really think people would care that we’re doing bread at home in a machine?

“That’s it!  Now you’re getting to my point!”

“Which is what, besides sneaking around and being obscure?”

This was dragging out and the wind was picking up and all I had on was a short-sleeved shirt.  The rotundo fellow looked like he was decked out for Arctic survival school.

“You need to focus more on the things you actually DO around here.”

He gave a sweeping gesture, waving around the property.

“Well, I do report a lot of it…”

“I’m sure some of your readers find your falling off a ladder interesting, but do you ever talk about the REST of it?

How many readers know about that cheap plastic miter gauge on your table saw that you’re trying to find a replacement for, as an example?  You should give people more useful information, like that.

It’s OK to tell them that an aluminum table on a table saw SEEMS like a good idea, but cast iron is probably a better long-term investment.  That kind of thing, do you see?

Report stuff people can ACT on…”

“Like what?”

“Well, like you and Elaine having the debate about that big bull pine tree  over yonder…and that strip of pines out to the west of your office building.  Why not talk about THAT?”

“I figured that the conversations we have are between us and don’t need to be written up…”

How the hell did he know that Elaine doesn’t want me to take down a dozen big tall pines because my elaborate plans to compete with the Tennessee Valley Authority (with my solar power system ) are being seriously hampered by big tree shadows that are blocking direct sunshine?  I’d figured it’s costing me about fifty to seventy-five bucks a month in lost solar power…

“You want me to write up more of the small stuff?”

“I wouldn’t tell  your bride that going Paul Bunyan on her trees is small stuff.

Nor is it small stuff to think for a week on where to put those 10 glass block windows you’ve framed up for your studio/sound/thinking room retreat you’re building.

Anyone can write on the Internet.  The Head Office just wanted me to drop by and mention you need to focus more on keeping it real, relevant, and responsive.

You knew that, I suppose, but my messenger duty was to remind you.

Now I’ve done that and I gotta go…Ho, ho, ho…

“Wait!”

I’d put the gun back in shoulder shoulder holster.  This fellow had as good a line of BS as I’d ever heard.

“Before you leave, I noticed you’re wearing green cammo.  I thought all you Mirthers wore RED suits.  Nice beard, however…

“Your reader Ben already told you the answer to that…you have to listen more closely to your readers.  That’s the responsive part.”

“What he asked was whether it was true ya’ll used to wear GREEN suits prior to Coca Cola doing a marketing campaign  and forcing you to change to RED because it went better with their product color…”

“Well, he’s right, but like you always say, Everything’s a Business Model, isn’t it?  Ho….ho….ho…..

Say…did you watch Tomorrow People’s first season?

“Yeah…how’d you know?

“Watch this….beats a sled six ways to Sunday….”

With that, he raised his right hand over his head, snapped his fingers once and there was a soft ripping sound followed by what looked like a vertical purple rip in….space-time….and he just stepped through it.  And at that very same moment, a brief orchestral hit with a touch of synthesizer came from his direction.

“Hey!  Where’d you go?  Where did you come from???”

The wind was picking up and it had turned bitterly cold.

Then suddenly a voice – sounding far, far away – was heard clearly just above the wind:

“Check the Carol Christian piece in The Houston Chronicle!   Ho…ho…ho….”

I went back in the office and hit the Houston Chronicle site.  Well, I’ll be damned!  There it was as I read:

Ho…ho…ho….

Now, About that Birthday

I am shocked.

Not one single email complaining about my Christmas story yesterday.  Could it be that the Retailing Christmasjack is that real and apparent?

Reader Rose Marie came to my defense:

Hi George,

I almost always enjoy your columns…and the days I don’t are only because I am too busy to sit and really read. But, today’s article on Christmas was exceptionally good and correct. Don’t misunderstand, I am a Christian. But, I am so tired of religion. And one of my favorite sayings that I use quite frequently is ‘everything is a business model’!

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