I’m pretty much convinced that everyone has (like cats) nine lives.  I can account for a handful of times when I have almost lost mine…and each time there’s a lesson to be learned.  The imminence of losing your life does two things for you:  First, it teaches you how incredibly important having information is.  The second thing it teaches that not everyone dies every time.  And that leads to point three:  When your number’s up, your number’s up.

We’re going to talk about skydiving in a minute, but first a few notes on nearly dying that are quite personal.  Worth sharing because they taught me things…

When have I almost died?

Once, back in 1986, or in there, I was on my way to the office.  I was driving my 2.7 liter Porsche 911, wearing the power suit, and looking like “that guy.”  The engine made an odd noise and I popped open the rear deck to take a look by the side of the road, engine running.  My yellow “power tie” took one turn around the alternator belt as I bent over and flipped back out, again.

Whew!  Close one!

That’s what I mean by a close brush with death.  Wrapping a tie up in an alternator would have pulled my head into a running engine.

Oh, sure, I was competent in all kinds of things mechanical and aced every shop/power tools course I’d ever taken.  And yet, that’s how accidental death works.  It sneaks out when no one is expecting it and WHAM!

Another time, much younger, I was working on a transmitter.  A Johnson Pacemaker, (here’s a whole page on how cool they are) one of the finest early single sideband transmitters ever. 

Aged 17, or so, I’d replaced a few components and the final tube (a 6146B if that matters) and I was readjusting the plate neutralization cap.  Momentarily, I lost focus, distracted (looking at the manual while making an adjustment inside a high voltage cage that’s open ain’t terribly smart.

WHAM!

800 volts!  I had been wresting the bottom of my palm on the grounded metal chassis and one finger brushed a high voltage point.  The reason I’m still alive is simple:  When I was 13, I’d picked myself up off the floor from a more modest 200 volt shock and already had learned the “keep one hand in your pocket” rule of dealing with electronics.  High voltage through the hand was another one of those near-miss deals.

And on my first flight solo in an airplane, I inadvertently entered a spin after doing a series of [planned/required] stalls.  I recovered from that because I’d memorized the part in the “learning to fly” book about stall recovery.

So far, I haven’t hit nine lives, but toss in a commercial flight to Panama where I was in an L-1011 that dropped 1,500 feet in severe clear air turbulence and a close call of short final in Miami when a new mechanic pulled a DC-10 in for maintenance right onto the active runway as we were 500 feet up in a 727-227 down and dirty for landing.  Again, close, but no cigar.  The Captain (Kel) had a nearly photographic memory and rolled left, keeping an eye on the 727’s left wingtip, holding it 10-feet off the ground in order not to cartwheel a fully loaded 727 into the ground.  It was a full flight, as I recall, and I was riding jump seat. 

All’s well that ends well, in each of these cases, but it reminds me of the critical things to pass onto my kids, lest they do similar things and exit this life prematurely.  My list?

• Never, ever, no matter what, get near a running engine with anything other than bare arms and tight-fitting clothing.
• In ham radio, never make an adjustment without a) wearing nitrile gloves on the “hot” hand and b) memorize the schematic, settings, and only look at a diagram with hands away from hot transmitters and receivers.
• Never unintentionally let a stall develop into a spin when driving airplanes.
• Never – even for an instant – take off your seat belt when flying (even commercial).
• Always – if you have a choice – fly with the smartest pilot you can.

Those are just a few personal encounters with death that didn’t work out for the Grim Reaper.  But now that I’m up there a bit (65 shows up next month) I’m hardly in a taunting mood.  I know he’s out there somewhere, waiting for me to put on one more pound and trigger an M.I., waiting for me to choke on a big piece of steak, waiting for me to slip and fall wrong off a ladder, or have a table saw blade break up while I’m using it.

Death is always around and you’ve just got to keep an eye out for it.

But this morning’s ramble isn’t about me …it’s about why we pursue the kinds of activities that give us the adrenaline rush.

I don’t know as I mentioned it, but my son came down to visit on Saturday.  After a nice steak dinner, the usual father-son chat, we went off to the local Denny’s Sunday morning, him driving my old pickup truck, and I haven’t seen him since.

Since Sunday, he’s been down at Skydive Spaceland where’ he’s been fine tuning his free-fall skills.  When he left the house he had 61 jumps, or so, but when he returns this morning he’ll have about 75 under the canopy.

Why skydiving?  Frankly, he’s an adrenaline junkie of the highest order.

Yes, he got into a bit of trouble when he was young, but turns out that his brief encounter with crime was not because of a need for money, or a drug addiction.  No, for him it was an addiction to adrenaline.  That’s been sorted out for 10 years and then some.

Over the years he’s found more socially acceptable (and legal) ways to “get some” of the buzz that goes with high adventure and it has worked for him professionally.  That’s why he’s been a first responder, EMT, and works in epidemiology sorting out who’s got AIDS and so forth.

About a year ago he took up the sport, getting his “A” license up at Harvey Field (Snohomish) north of Seattle.  It’s a wonderful place to jump, but George II wanted to visit with “the old man” a bit and he didn’t want to wait for the wintertime Seattle gray to clear every time he wanted to go up.

The weather is a lot better for skydiving this time of the year, and he made a decision to come down here and use four days of vacation time to get max fun out of life, which seems to be the point of it, right?

You can click over onto the Skydiving Spaceland site and go through the pictures, but the nice thing about it from G II’s standpoint is that if you are a jumper, they have a bunkhouse (great showers and facilities including laundry) for itinerant skydivers, which G II fancies himself.

I know from our talk before he headed south that he’s thinking about becoming a “skydiving tourist.”

Tuesday, the winds in the drop zone were running 25 and gusting 30, so he only got one jump in, but as he pointed out, by jumping a 170 chute instead of a 180 or 190 and keeping speed up on final approach while in the pattern, you can come down, flare out, and so a “tip-toe” landing with no forward speed.

For reasons that aren’t clear to me, skydivers are some of the most adrenaline-hooked-up people on earth.  To hear G II tell it, nothing on terra firma is anywhere near as exciting. 

And for those who find event free-fall not enough, there’s the matter of base-jumping.  This is where you find a tall structure and pack a special chute and go off at super-low altitude.  I friend of mine from back in my news days, John S. was one part of the original group that base-jumped the Space Needle in Seattle.

Oh, and that’s why the Space Needle Observation Deck was eventually encased with clear plastic so people like John and Art couldn’t plan round 2.  (Not sure what the statute of limitation is on base jumping, but it was more than 30-years ago now…)

Rumor has it that G II almost went base jumping while on this trip.  Apparently there’s a high antenna somewhere down on the Gulf Coast where base-jumpers go. 

So far, and fortunately for a worried parent, G II hasn’t gone that route.  He enjoys the free-fall part of it the most…but for how long?

When he gets back, we’ll have the father-son discussion about gear:  Does he keep renting, or, at some point, does he buy?

The “numbers” work out this way:  Rental rigs run about $25 per jump.  George is looking at buying his own hear now, and has been saving money like crazy for it.  Still, he’s looking at a $5,000 investment in equipment.  And, worse, if you do get all that gear and want to go schlepping around the country, you’ve just got that much more crap to pack and carry.

Oh, and the gear as a useful life about 10-years, he figures.

This is where I put on the “accounting hat.”  In order for gear rental to make sense, he’ll have to do 200 jumps over the next ten years.  That’s only 20-jumps a year.  OK, I can see how that might make sense – at least for now.

But one of these days, one of those young ladies he’s been dating is going to get her hooks in and there goes the party animal lifestyle of a vagabond skydiver.

Meantime, get’s got the full court press on to get dad and Elaine to take up the sport.  I continue to decline, however.  I’ve counted up the number of times that I’m had near-misses with the Grim Reaper and if we’re playing a “short game” of 9-holes in Life, I’m not going to taken a chance of a bogey.

He’s had to pull his reserve twice in his skydiving adventures so far…in both case “normal accidents” with safe recoveries.

I’ve carded a few more bogies and realize that I’m playing an opponent who never loses.  I’ll keep landing with the airplane we take off in, thank you very much.

But for him, it’s a fine ADHD treatment and much better than what comes out of a bottle of pills.

Explaining Conan O’Brien

Reader Ray H, one of our favorite critics of the ol’ column, sent in this:

Wurst, brats, dogs, get’cher links here. They’re fresh, they’re smokin’, and a few are even spicy! Links, get’cher links…

Media Reacts: A Christmas Present Or Two Or Ten Edition

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM8L7bdwVaA
A Conan O’Brian clip featuring excerpts from a number of local news broadcasts. The broadcast affiliates are ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, and a smattering of non-network stations.
Tell me, upon viewing the clip: Are there any “broadcast journalists” left?

Oh, dear, Ray…you missed something. Lemme fill you in…

What most people don’t realize is that there are “story idea” companies that send out suggested scripts and story ideas for “soft news” that begins to fill up the local airwaves around holiday.  Usually a subscription service…a couple of hundred a month is budget dust compared to Chopper X time, right?

So when I see this kind of compilation, I recognize it for what it is….a whole of of assignment editors and/or news directors saw the “suggested script” that came with the story idea from one of these news consultancies, and they look at what the “ratings consultants” have been telling station management “(Usually:”More health heart, and pocketbook!”) and all decided to run with the same story,. same script line, local variances and local B-roll. 

They show up on slow news days, mostly.  We used to make jokes in radio on such slow days like “Can’t Channel 4 go out and roll over a car on Interstate 5, or something?” 

So nothing mysterious about it. 

Just like there’s nothing surprising when  administration “sources” tell the same thing to key reporters (like the WaPo or NYT) because as anyone knows in the major media, when you go to a presidential news conference, the most important story is often not what’s being said by the “talking head” – it’s often what’s being said to the Biggest Media by the “staff briefers.”

Those remarks often begin with “What the President means to say here is….”  or “What the President is trying to get across is how…”  And yes, I had White House press credentials at one time and I’ve seen “the dance” first-hand often enough to enjoy the choreography.

No Worries About Summer War

Earlier this week, we were talking about how one solution to cryptic Nostradamus painting might be the advent of global war this summer.

Well, hold up there, old pard, says reader Michelle:

Sorry George,

The Sun will be in Cancer Jun 21/22 to July 22/23. The dates here depends on the time zone. The Sun will be in Leo on Jul. 27/14, Jupiter is in Cancer till July 16/17…

Now, she’s not a professional astrologer, and I don’t have time to go through all the machinations, but additional input is welcome.

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Serious futuring discussion here:  The news all makes sense, at some level. It tells us the future, if we but listen closely, inspect the details, view with detachment, and just watch how it flows… 

Other than the random AoG’s (Acts of God) caused by semi-random mechanical failures and such, there’s a “string” or “current” that becomes clear over time. 

A flow of events.

When it clarifies, everyone sits back and says “Aha!  So THAT is what all that stuff that happened before meant!”  Usually, after the fact, though.

Pardon a long ramble, but we’ve got a ton of data now that is in the formative stages of becoming semi-connected, and perhaps at a meaningful level.  These could be the initial eddies formed as the River of War makes up its mind where to flow next.

How to see it?  Ah!  That’s the problem.  Most people read the news and see only singular events. Yet, as our studies of finance reveal, there are lever-like. cause-and-effect, relationships that become easily seen with not too much difficulty.  And because big things like War tend to influence things like Markets, some attention should be paid to the playing field upon which the small investor has chosen to engage.

Consequently, we have a collection of notes that lead us to expect huge (humanity-changing?) developments later this year.  This is not yet conclusive, only conjecture. This is not to say that something will happen.  Only that in nooks and crannies of the new flow there are interesting bits, hints, nibbles, gnaws, clicks, and pops that give signs or a loose a sketch of this big “thingy” that could be happening this summer into fall. 

Naturally, if the data changes, our outlook changes, as well.

With that as a disclaimer, let me toss  out some notes and see how future history for the balance of this year could play out.  Some of this will be highly speculative, while other parts are hot out of this morning’s news runs. 

Let’s toss it ALL on the table and see what the connections are, shall we?

1.  The first “open bin” has to do with the passing of Ariel Sharon recently.  That’s because of the rabbi Kaduri prophesy that with his passing, the Jewish Messiah will arrive shortly thereafter to announce himself in Jerusalem.

We have two population groups awaiting a Messiah/Imam to show up.  Followers of Messiahs/Imams have done great wars in the past.  The Muslim Conquests and the Crusades are sufficiently large as to draw attention from an investment standpoint. Happening today they would be world-changers.

This is because of the huge fractions of population that were swept into partisanship roles during these events in the past.  Wars like these do, indeed, change everything.

2.  The data collection has to do with the motion within greater Islam at the moment where we see two roots of that tree twisting about for supremacy.  One sees it in the strong internal dissent between the Sunni and Shi’ite sects and it works out in places such as Syria.  There, we have a strongly backed Shi’ite government versus a Sunni insurgency. Who will drive?

3.  It becomes even more clear when I get emails, like this one, from our news analyst fellow up in Winnipeg:

Dear Mr. Ure,

Now that the UAE is drafting a mandatory conscription law, Qatar apparently introduced one late in 2013, and Kuwait could be on the same path, one wonders why this and why now?

Regards,

So yes, we see the increasing levels of militarism within Islam.  80+ % of the country is Sunni.

4.  And yet another bin that’s collecting data has to do with the huge investment that the government of (mostly Sunni)  Saudi Arabia has made in keeping Egypt friendly to their views of the world.  And reports of the growing informal relationships being tilled between the Saudis and Israel over the upcoming role of Syria.  See references to “Frenemies.”

5.  This morning, another set of horrors emerges in Syria as a purported photographer for the Assad government has escaped to the West with damning pictures that [allege] to show upwards lots of young dead men – victims of alleged brutality of the Assad regime.

6.  But at the same time, while the bodies are stacking up, readers seem sometimes confused by our reports contributed from “warhammer” as we call him, that point out many of this underlying currents.  Here’s a typical reader concern:

“I do take issue with your war-gamer pal.  Now, maybe he is only presenting strictly the war gamer’s plans, as derived from their personal psychopathic power & warmongering personalities.  But I do think it is a disservice to your readers to not at least mention that Iran has never preemptively attacked or invaded another country in over 200 years.  Iran wants to stay out of the usury game.  They want nothing to do with the IMF.  They also kicked out the Shah, America’s puppet.  They have lots of reasons to dislike us.  And, they were signers on to the IAEA, until they realized it was so rigged.  Israel has refused to sign on to the IAEA.  Even if Iran were to get nukes, and who could blame them, I doubt they would ever use them preemptively, at least if recent history is any indicator.”

And yes, that’s all true, so please consider it mentioned and reminded.

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We begin with the nagging thought (with the markets closed, and all, which we’ll get to) that 2014 could be the year that sets us firmly on the path toward global war.  It’s not a pretty thought, but it may have some basis in fact.

Let’s begin by taking a look at spiraling events in Ukraine, which our Winnipeg news analyst sums up this way:

Dear Mr. Ure,

“Espreso TV” has a live feed on “YouTube” scanning the locale of recent Ukrainian confrontations. Beneath such moving pictures of confusion, Wikipedia’s page of Ukraine’s ruling Party of Regions offers helpful links for reading of well-heeled support, as well as pointing to a Ukrainian president allegedly schooled with American lobbyist knowledge.

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The latest disclosure (nightmare) for the NSA and the Obama damage control teams is the report in the UK Guardian this morning about a program called Dishfire which reads more than 200-million text messages per day.  Probably yours.

Oh,; and the really bad part of this?  (Like that’s not bad enough?)  There was no control over whose texts were involved.  It was uncontrolled and aimed at everyone. Once again, proof, as I see it, that the FISA Court has failed.  Wallpaper at its finest

The next act due (center ring) at the National Security Circus, will be Ringmaster Obama calling later today for an “overhaul” of the NSA phone data collection system.  Yeah, sure, you betcha.   But, like I’ve told you before, they wouldn’t do the reform unless the replacement was in the wings.

And gee, gosh, what’s that building outside Provo for, anyway?

Or, will an already bad idea become an outsourcing project?    As country we can’t walk and chew gum, it seems.

Waiting for California’s Drought Exodus

California Burning

As we discussed in the drought story yesterday, our preliminary pencil-pushing suggests that a modern-day Dust Bowl equivalent in California could displace 4-million people (or more) if rain doesn’t come along soon.

And this morning there’s no sign of it.  Nearly 4,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in the San Gabriel mountains where a fire is up to almost 2,000 acres.  Three campers have been arrested for supposedly starting it.

Further to that discouraging drought map I showed you Thursday, here’s a report in the San Joe Mercury News headline “California Drought:  Three more months of dry weather like, National Weather Service announces.”

And in San Francisco, which should be coming up on 2 1/2-inches of rain for the year, we’re still stuck at one one-hundredth on an inch for the year.  No rain for the next week or two, either.

I’m waiting for the “shower on odd days only if your last name begins A through L” to come along.

Say, you don’t think Warren Buffett bought personal care products stock Henkel do you?  Maybe the sage of Omaha looked at the long range drought forecasts and looked up, as we did, who owns the Right Guard deodorant brand…

More after this…

Housing Starts a Mess

A picture is worth a thousand words, but being too lazy to gin those up, we’ll simple serve a side order of Press Release stew here…

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 986,000. This is 3.0 percent (±1.1%) below the revised November rate of 1,017,000, but is 4.6 percent (±1.1%) above the December 2012 estimate of
943,000.

Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 610,000; this is 4.8 percent (±1.0%) below the revised November figure of
641,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 350,000 in December.

An estimated 974,700 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2013. This is 17.5 percent (±0.8%) above the 2012 figure
of 829,700.

HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000. This is 9.8 percent (±10.7%)* below
the revised November estimate of 1,107,000, but is 1.6 percent (±11.9%)* above the December 2012 rate of 983,000.

Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 667,000; this is 7.0 percent (±8.9%)* below the revised November figure of
717,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 312,000.

An estimated 923,400 housing units were started in 2013. This is 18.3 percent (±2.9%) above the 2012 figure of 780,600.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 744,000. This is 10.8 percent (±9.9%)
below the revised November estimate of 834,000, but is 10.7 percent (±11.7%)* above the December 2012 rate of 672,000.

Dangerous Data: Double-Digit Money Spike

We notice this morning that the Dow last Friday closed very near 14,437 while the S&P last week closed at 1,842,37.  With yesterday’s close, the S&P was up a few points and the Dow was down 20 for the week. The Techs, basis last week, are doing a little better.

As long as the market holds above the 1808 S&P level, odds of a running correction before going higher seem to be in place. 

But for now, the futures point to a Dow which would end the week within a few points of last Friday…which means the whole of the financial industry could have taken the week off and it wouldn’t have mattered…

“Warning Will Rogers”

That’s the foreplay.  Now the news….

Thursday’s M1 reading shot up to a dramatic 11.4% 3-months annualized rate.  And, what’s more, the M1 on a six-months annualized basis is now 10.0%.

M2 was going up at a more measured 6.2%, but with the jack-up of M1 we can’t help but wonder is the Santa Season didn’t get a little goose from the Fed just to make sure the holidays didn’t collapse?

I wish I was selling specialty ink to the money industry.

At 9:15 this morning, the Fed will release the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports.  A lot of good news and the markets could move up smartly from here ahead of the month-end Fed meeting.

French-Style Politics

Got to love politics in France.  Pictures over at Breitbart this morning of a load of manure being dumped on the doorstep of government give us all kinds of ideas.

Not of which we can speak, write, or text.

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Back on terra firma, Oilman2 added something to think about if you’re considering that idea I mentioned (buy “proven reserves” and wait).

First, read this (it’s short):

BP Expects Shale Boom in Russia and S. America to Cause Problems for Middle East

Now, look at CanUSA – 3450 rigs total with 1754 in US & Canada 804 or so.  There are 3450 land rigs in the world…..1754 + 804 = 2558 and 2558/3450 = 74%

Knowing that Shale gas and oil entail “drill or die” programs due to the nature of their depletion curves, they are proclaiming that the remaining rigs in the world all leave China, Saudi, Africa, Indonesia, etc. and go to Russia, whereupon 26% of the world fleet will perform like the 74% we have here in CanUSA…

DO NOT even get me going on how dilapidated the majority of the Russian/CIS rigs are (circa 1940 in age)…

BP is obviously smoking a unique blend of ganja, and we should invite them to meet us in Colorado where we can “share their vision”…

George, this is why most industry ‘analysts” should be drawn and quartered – they believe anything they hear over a few beers and lack any deductive reasoning capacity. 
FMTT, can I borrow your vicegrips?

Oilman2

We are also thinking through the matter of what’s a “proven reserve.”  Back in the day (when there were real oil analysts you’d be able to get reports that listed in tabular fashion “If oil is $150 then we have Y million barrels recoverable..  If the Price is $80, we have Z barrels recoverable.

They don’t call them the “good old days” for nothing.

Today it’s hard to work the numbers.  An oil company might have X in “proven reserves” but the multiplicity of factors leading to an insight on what’s profitable has tossed in so many interdependent variables has to make home calculation damn near impossible.

Some of the factors that come into play:

• What’s the current (real) water cut in Saudi Arabia?
• Is Venezuela stable?
• How long are current prices expected to remain stable?
• What’s the public mood and education level in proven reserve areas only recoverable by fracking?
• What’s the environmental penalty cost if we frack anyway?
• What’s the US dollar outlook, and how long is China going to keep us afloat?

I’m not going to tell you where this picture of a new kind of law enforcement came from, but once again, we see how the “federalization” of local police agencies is in full-tilt boogie.

As one reader tells us:

LE guys or government bureaucrats who take a 1, 2 or 3-day course and work for counties via the TNRCC. In short, amateur “eco-police” that aren’t likely to know what dihydrogen oxide is….

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While the S&P is off into record setting territory and our Peoplenomics trading model is showing its stuff nicely, we need to consider the impacts of a left-field event that may lead to a California Exodus:  The quickly evolving Drought.

As you can see in the latest report out this week, the map has a big ugly spot that’s located right over the Central Valley and that’s where a good chunk of the nation’s fresh (and frozen) veggies and fruits come from.

According to the data released with the report, and I don’t think there’s an issue sharing this because it is BIG news and of public concern:

“There seems to be no relief in sight as the calendar flips over to 2014. Persistent ridging has kept precipitation at bay for many, leading to record-setting dryness for many locations in California and Oregon; this has become more of an issue of late in Washington as well.

Even though California sees no changes on this week’s map, more deterioration could be coming soon given the weather pattern, or lack thereof, and concern for water supply, fire and other impacts grows each week the rains and snows don’t come. In fact, many locations in California reported the calendar year 2013 as being the driest on record, smashing previous record dry years (including 1976).

One such example is Shasta Dam, where only 16.89 inches was reported in 2013, more than 11 inches below the previous record low of 27.99 inches in 1976. Shasta’s calendar year average is 62.72 inches. Upper elevation Sierra station snowpack and snow water equivalent (SWE) values in California have been abysmal for the Water Year (since October 1) as well. The historic low precipitation totals haven’t just been confined to the upper elevations either as dozens of locations have shattered their previous record low calendar year totals.

In the Pacific Northwest, D1 has pushed northward across western Oregon and into western Washington up to the Canadian border this week. Both snow pack and snow water equivalent SWE levels are very low as we move deeper into the wet season. In Idaho, D0 now covers the entire Panhandle and has pushed into more of extreme northwestern Montana.

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