One of the more confusing holidays of the year is before us this morning:  Good Friday. 

Stock and bond markets are closed in the US, but elsewhere around the world, it’s a different deal since not everyone buys in to the Christian-Judeo view of things.  Still, this weekend’s  confluence of Easter happening in mid Passover has left folks confused.

On the federal side, the ultimate arbiter is the federal office of personnel management which has their list here.  Feds get 10-scheduled and some personal time, if I recall.  Comp time, if memory serves, too.

Most of American industry – in order to squeeze out more work has dropped to about six holidays – and in many cases, not even that.  Particularly in retail.

The Miami Herald run down over here demonstrates the complexity of navigating today:  Federal, state, and county offices are open, unless you are a lawyer, in which case the courts are closed  in Miami Dade.

In a way this makes sense; , lawyers needing more forgiveness, perhaps.

But they’re not a forgiving lot themselves; the post office is open today so bills (including ones from lawyers) will be delivered in a timely fashion. Is this a great country, or what?

Around the country, some libraries are closed on Easter, others open.

As far as I know, most of the Big Box stores will be open.  Parking meters?:  Another hit and miss area.  Most will take money, though.

All of which gets me down to Ure’s Holiday Planning Decree.  I figure that everyone in the country ought to have at least one three day weekend a month.  Two would be nicer.

Part of the growing sense of “us versus them” we have comes from inequality in things like holidays; it’s more than just money.  Time off and serious relaxification is way up the list.

Personally, I think we ought to have one three day weekend every month (12 holidays per year) and half a dozen “floaters” for a total of perhaps 18.

This way, if you’re one minority, you might take a day off early in the year, while another might opt to take off Cinco de Mayo.  Everyone’s happy.  Well, except the quadrilingual teachers who would have to work through all holidays.  But welcome to public service in the melting pot.

I’m only partly joking here:   At some point, I’m looking for a Hispanic holiday to be added out of political correctness….seriously! ^{(or nearly so)}  Perhaps Cesar Chavez Day?  Just as Dr. King fought against injustice against Blacks, did not Chavez lead and work against injustice toward Hispanics?  So how about a holiday?

The Black population of America is 12.6% or 38.9 million.  The Hispanic population of America (legal or otherwise) is up around 16.4% and 50.5 million.   I’m not sure if that counts the 11-20 million illegals, or not.  Where’s the holiday?

The reason  such “common sense” as my “six floaters” isn’t here yet is simple:  If Cesar Chavez Day appeared, then we’d doubtlessly see a  parade of other population subgroups and chaos would ensue. What about a National Taxpayer Day?  Hell, that seems only fair, right?

The only reasonable answer, therefore, is six “personal floaters” to solve the mess.  I figure it one day for each grandparent (since we’re all of varying pedigree and most have four grandparents, last time I checked, morning science headlines not withstanding) and a few more days for personal use.

Being deeply culturally conflicted, I could celebrate Denmark Constitution Day (June 5th, by the way).  Not that I care so much about Cinco de Hangover.  It’s just that since tequila is sort of the order of the day there, why not have a day of aquavit/akavit and snaps? 

Then (after the upcoming rebellion) I could observe Scottish Independence Day (whatever it turns out to be).  I’ll leave it to you to figure out what liquid would be celebrated on that day, although a nice peaty single malt 25-year old ought to be a good clue.  (No, that’s not a girl!)

We get onto thin ice on this holiday booze discussion quickly; there’s been so much marketing of holiday alcohol that it has caused a major health problem and one that spills over (so to speak) in ways that can destroy lives.

Yet, when I think about it, Christmas has always been associated with a tawny port in my mind, though some people think Crown or Black Velvet; New Years with champagne, of course.

All of which gets me around to the ponder of the morning:  What will all those financial industry people be drinking this weekend?  Nothing, I would hope.  The excesses in that world have done quite enough damage to the country already and it’s driving too many people to drink.

National Stock Broker (and lawyer) day – which today is, in a sense – might be more wisely timed for October 3rd this year.  That’s the Day of Atonement and, methinks, far more fitting for those in finance and law who manage the yoke.

Which gets me to Matthew 21:12 and a note to ponder on the lure of false profits.

I’m open to other thoughts, of course, but the more holidays, the merrier.  Besides, since everyone only works at 50% of capacity anyway, we could easily add a dozen more holidays and still hit the same GDP figures. Be a hell of a lot more time off…and we’d need more toys and that would rev up the economy.

See?  Doesn’t this make sense?  As a bonus:  There’d be a lot less fluff on social media – and who’s to say that would be a bad thing?  We’d be living the actual instead of living the virtual and that’s the point.

Web Surveillance

Reader Mark out in the Bay area wonders ”What’s wrong with data capturing for corporations?  Give me more…”

George,

I don’t get all the fuss about your comment this morning…”the corporate customers of all these analytics (read: spying on your habits) ARE going to slice and dice your thinking based on your social and they will try to sell you things.”

Back before social media, computers and such there was the Nielsen ratings system. These people would send mailers to be filled out or in overnights, call random households on their land line and ask them what their TV viewing habits were that night or during a ratings period. And, people loved it. It was an honor to fill out that log and questionnaire Nielsen gave you.

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Not too often that I seek reader input on project around the ranch, but we’ve been busy getting the new sunroom and the new audio/video room ready to “button up” with sheetrock.

And so the question of the morning is:  Between Lowes and Home Despots, who’s got the lightest-weight 1/2 rock for the ceiling?

I know this is a rather esoteric kind of question, but it’s the little decisions that make a difference in home improvement projects.  Given a choice between wrestling around the heavier sheetrock or some of the new (lighter weight) material, this seems like a no-brainer.  Also, the lighter rock is supposedly less susceptible to sag when using 24-inch centers on the ceiling.

Any thoughts welcome, particularly brand.

Speaking of sheetrock…this will be my first time using Grabber GWNS125 Wet-N-Stick Water Activated Adhesive Joint Tape.  I have used the mesh type tape, which is touted as giving a much stronger joint where there might be movement (like along the ceiling-wall joint) but I’m going to see how this goes.

I decided a long time ago down here in bug country, that the only civilized thing to do is buy cases of Alex caulking and caulk everything you can find.  So that’s how we’ve rebuilt the house…probably more caulking than anywhere in East Texas around here.  But we get damn few bugs, says the Orkin man, so that’s a good thing.

Meanwhile,the adventure continues: A large enough part of Wednesday was spent wrangling 3/4” plywood onto the floor of the sun room…so today I will finish up the storm door on that and we’ll be ready to rock that room, as it were.

Then we’ll move on to the real entertainment (after one more bundle of itchyglass insulation to finish off the A/V room.  And today or maybe this weekend, Panama will do the under-house crawl to bring in the feeder line for power from the breaker panel…and then we will be ready for sheetrock.

The most interesting visual feature is the glass block which Elaine insisted on.  5-by-7 block is fairly inexpensive and when framed up with 2-by-4’s, it’s easy enough to put in during the framing and sheathing.  But it will make the sheet rocking a lot slower.  Architectural Digest material it isn’t, but fun, good use of recycled materials (20%) and a check way to turn deck space into something really useful while adding value to the homestead.

As I try to counsel our kids:  If you take all your free time and figure some way to monetize it, like putting “sweat equity” into a home, eventually you’ll come out ahead of the other 99% of humans who sit on their asses and take the dole.

It’s all about wise spending, too:  Thanks to Howard’s visit, we are now the proud owners of a pair of recyled/reclaimed Bose 901’s (series 1) which will be the mid-range speakers at the mixing console/computer.  These will be augmented with a pair of Polk Audio PSW10 10-Inch Monitor Series Powered Subwoofer (Single, Black) (one on each side) and for the tweeters, we’re still thinking about that problem…we may not need them as my hearing is starting to roll off about 14 KHz now, anyway.  And yes, virtually everyone’s high-end rolls off with age….

The cool thing is that thanks to eBay, GREAT 1970’s and 80’s used sound gear on the market, makes it possible to put together a world-class studio (playback) for under $500.  Or, you can just get a pair of Sennheiser headphones and call it good, too, too, I suppose…

For now, my biggest problem in life are mounting a storm door and installing more of that damn itchyglass insulation.

Thursday At the WoWW: Dreamland Ventures

Well, it happened again:  I had another one of those dreams with predictive content.

Rather than bore you with the details (or recount them again, what me being lazy and all…) I will just point you over to Chris McCleary’s National Dream Center site where I posted it (and also on the Peoplenomics.com site).

Also on the topic of dreams this morning, Stu over at the Age of Desolation site – where Nostradamus is the center of focus – thinks with the WoWW dreams I should be ready for what may be out there on the horizon:

George,
Read about your dream today… Holy smoke right on target… very weird about the Frenchman… Henri V perhaps?
I just finished reading Linda Moulton series: http://www.earthfiles.com/index.php?category=Headline+News

April 14, 2014 – Part 10: Hall of Mirrors with A Quicksand Floor

You need to check out the whole series, especially with your dreaming.

Stu

Yep, she writes some darn interesting material, alright.  My dreams haven’t involved any trips to UFOs and such, but if it ever does, I’ll be sure to let you know.

Oh, and if you find me naked by the side of the road in the wilderness, yammering senselessly, get me to a computer.

For now, the focus of my dreaming (off we go into the weird, here, so hang on…) seems to have been this morning’s dream which told me (in no uncertain terms) that I needed to read about “acquisitions in the Boston Globe” this morning and I would find something of interest.

Which I did, and sure enough, there’s there’s story about how Twitter is about to acquire Gnip…but here’s where it get interesting:  Apparently the way Twitter will make dough in this thing is by reselling analytical data from Gnip.

So as near as I can figure it, my “dreamland” input on this stuff is to keep an eye on all the action in data analytics when it comes to social media.

Think the NSA is interested in your personal life?  Well, corporations have an even greater interest because (unlike the alphabet boyz who don’t sell you soap) the corporate customers of all these analytics (read: spying on your habits) ARE going to slice and dice your thinking based on your social and they will try to sell you things.

That, says this morning’s out-take from dreamland, is a very big dead, indeed, and one of the reasons the web is “broken.”  NO ONE reads all the fine prints, but you go write up some social media remarks about thinking about buying a big ticket item (big screen, new car, things like that) and if you watch the web sites you surf and emails, and posts, care to guess what you’re likely to find?

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I had occasion to head up to Tyler, Texas Monday to meet up with visiting Howard Hill and lead him back to what we jokingly call Deliverance Country here in the outback.  And while I was there I loaded up the car with supplies because we don’t like to shop and it’s 15-miles just to find a gas station around here…

What struck me was how busy the town was.  There were wall-to-wall people everywhere I looked.  Parking lots of shopping areas were full, or darned near.  The Barnes and Noble was busy, Northern Tool had a steady flow of people going through.  But most telling was (to me) where people were hanging around at the Brookshire’s grocery.

They didn’t appear to have any restraints on spending and although there were some good deals on meats, on the high end they had some prime beef which was was staked $22.95 a pound.

OK, far from scientific, but it’s definitely not the kind of consumer behavior that I would have expected, especially given the strength of the online retailers in Monday’s retail sales report.

Yet there are signs that the “End is Near” financially.  One of these is the Baltic Dry shipping index which was down to 989 yesterday and this morning stands at    

These are the kinds of levels that we would expect to see when the country was running into a major recession.

However, as you can see in the chart to the right (if you have a big screen, anyway) the Census data on business inventories has continued to crep up in recent months, including the report out Monday.

Maybe people are shopping out of habit, but not actually buying much…that’s one possibility, I suppose.  And some hints may be had in other data that this may be the case…take the….

Consumer Price Data

Although the market seems (at least for a while) to be ignoring my outlook for a drop in the S&P to 1,750 levels, the strong rally Monday might be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event looking ahead to consumer price data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the shelter and food indexes accounted for most of the seasonally adjusted all items increase.

The food index increased 0.4 percent in March, with several major grocery store food groups increasing notably.

The energy index, in contrast, declined slightly in March as decreases in the gasoline and fuel oil indexes more than offset increases in the indexes for electricity and natural gas.

The index for all items less food and energy also rose 0.2 percent in March.

Besides the 0.3 percent increase in the shelter index, the indexes for medical care, for apparel, for used cars and trucks, and for airline fares also increased.

The indexes for household furnishings and operations and for recreation both declined in March. The all items index increased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to a 1.1 percent increase for the 12 months ending February.

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The market is going to rally this morning – and it might even make it back up to 1,840 on the S&P.  But we play the long game around here, and so we begin this morning with a very somber outlook for markets, except as our Peoplenomics subscribers have known for weeks, it won’t be somber around here because anyone with half a brain can make as much (or more) money when markets are going down, compared to when they are going up.  It’s just that that the American public has been hoodwinked into thinking that taking the short side is somehow bad.  Truth is:  Your money doesn’t give a shit.  It goes to the people who make the “right” bet, not the ever-higher economy pap that’s sold by politicians and hucksters; if it’s not too early to draw a distinction between ‘em.

We look at some comments from a “couple of Robins” to get things rolling:  Robin Handler of the Options Signal Service offers this (in small part) to his readers:

This is the absolute worst set-up I have ever seen in my life!  DJI at 4000? Yes! Very possible in the next two weeks.

I am not an astrologer. I am not a numerologist. I just look for anomalies that foreshadow big and unusual events in the stock market.  To quote Bob Dylan, “You don’t need to be a weather man to know which way the wind is blowing.” And if there are dark clouds on the horizon, it is time to “seek shelter from the storm”.

Things have already started happening that I predicted, and could take the DJI down a few thousand points IF the Stock Exchange is not closed.

The issue, he notes is the Cardinal Cross where Pluto goes retrograde and Mars kicks it up a notch around the 21st, so our April 23 “duck date” may be pretty good.  Especially with the battle of words over Ukraine that (in Energizer bunny fashion) just keeps going, and going, and…

The other Robin who always has a a fine perspective on things is Robin Landry who manages client money from his office up in Shawnee, Oklahoma, which he decided long ago was better than the big city rat race.

Landry’s view is less influenced by the headlines, the starts, or any of the rest of it:  He just looks pragmatically at his charts and when it comes to Elliott waves, I put Landry in the same league with Bob Prechter, but without so many calls about the “big one” is here.

Landry’s approach is very measured:  As of last week, he was expecting a bit of resistance in the 1805-1810 levels on the S&P, but at that time his indicators were suggesting that these could fall quickly which leaves us at the 1,740-1,750 levels as the next target zone.  “We’ll just take it one step at a time, George,” is one of his favorite remarks when I pencil out scenarios several wave movements ahead.  He’s been a great teacher.

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As you know, UrbanSurvival was one of the original “doom” sites, and then into prepping, long before it became vogue.  And our present focus  – unlike many of the doom porn and “whip ‘em up” sites – is about making it through the present and still arriving disruptions over the next couple of years with as much common sense as possible.

This morning I had emails galore from outfits like Patriotsomething and Survivalsomething and they were assuring me that Obama has plans to fill up FEMA camps, take away our guns, and all the rest of it.  Oh, and let’s not leave out sites – selling newsletters and what-have-you – that are worked up over changes in law coming July 1 which “…will collapse the US dollar!”

Poppycock and panic sell well…so our first item of business this morning is to remind you of the Wikipedia entry on Yellow Journalism which begins…

Yellow journalism, or the yellow press, is a type of journalism that presents little or no legitimate well-researched news and instead uses eye-catching headlines to sell more newspapers.^[1] Techniques may include exaggerations of news events, scandal-mongering, or sensationalism.^[1] By extension, the term yellow journalism is used today as a pejorative to decry any journalism that treats news in an unprofessional or unethical fashion.

Thus, the difficulty we all face in noisy times, rumors of war, and fast market conditions is sorting out the what from the hype in order to make well-informed decisions.

Thus, whenever I get emails (like imminent dollar collapse, taking guns, or FEMA camps) I do two simple exercises.  First, I look at the manpower picture and secondly I look at “How would I handle it?”

Since UrbanSurvival is mainly about economic matters, the hype (running to typical tax-dodger pandering) about the upcoming start date of FATCA, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, is a fine example.

No, it will not likely cause a collapse of the US dollar and gold going to the moon.  That’s still 2-5 years out.  The purpose of FATCA is to catch tax dodgers and, since the world is becoming awash in computer horsepowe4r, it seems like a reasonable thing to do.

As a regular taxpayer myself, not having any offshore accounts, the impact of FATCA on my life looks to be about zip. 

On the other hand, if you’re got offshore accounts, perhaps even trusts and the like, then yes, it could be a very big deal.  For people squirreling away money, looking to make you and me pay their share of the cost of government, it is a HUGE deal.

IRS has set up a FATCA discussion over here where they try, despite the doomsayer hype, to explain what the purpose of the coming law is:

FATCA targets tax non-compliance by U.S. taxpayers with foreign accounts

• FATCA focuses on reporting:

• By U.S. taxpayers about certain foreign financial accounts and offshore assets

• By foreign financial institutions about financial accounts held by U.S. taxpayers or foreign entities in which U.S. taxpayers hold a substantial ownership interest

• The objective of FATCA is the reporting of foreign financial assets; withholding is the cost of not reporting.

There are more links to details on the IRS’ individual taxpayer page over here, but every read I’ve done makes it clear there’s no direct impact on people who have no offshore holdings.

So where does the “end of world” hype come from and why are marketers stuffing my inbox with emails telling must time is running out and I need to buy a newsletter to guide me – even though I don’t have a foreign account?

The logic seems to be that because of the reporting requirements, there may be some foreign banks (and multinationals) who will opt out of doing business with the US.  And this, in turn would cause collapse, seems to be the thinking.

Well, not hardly.

First, bankers are addicted to the US consumer like the suckerfish that swim with whales.  They need us more than we need them.

Secondly – and I keep screaming this at the top of my lungs:  We are in a period of DEFLATION which is where CASH IS KING!  Read your history.

When crap hits the fan in the markets, the Big players have to sell everything including the kitchen sink and, yes, that gold they have been dabbling in.  So it will come down with the market, methinks.

Here’s how I think it’s going to play out:

Between now and say fall of 2015 or 2016, the bonds will continue to be a fine place to park money.  Three years ago, we opted for a 1/2-gold, 1/2 bonds approach to financial assets, even realizing there is a penalty on holding gold bullion of 30% on the gains – which is why we only have (ahem…) a lone gold coin.  But bonds have been a blast, too.

But fully 60% of our net worth is tied up in something even more important:  Fee simple, paid for real estate in a rural area.  We keep the taxes current and focus on the one thing that really matters:  Keeping our break-even (“the nut”) as low as possible.

When you work with serious money for a while, it becomes clear:  You can (and should) manage both sides of the personal financial statement:  The income and the outgo.  Everyone works on the income side, but few focus on reducing costs (except the New Minimalists and some Millenials have caught on to the hype fest).  And that leaves a whole bunch of  50+ people who don’t take time to read the details to panic and make wrong decisions.

Now, as for the history:

The USA is in a longwave economic Depression.  The Fed’s plan (unlike the 1930’s event) has been to step on the gas as much as possible to keep the effects of the Depression from being widely felt.  In order to do this, they have been printing money like crazy.  M1 is going up recently (basis last three months) at an 18+ percent annual rate.  Yet prices are not going to the moon.  Up?  I didn’t say they weren’t.  I said they were being supported.

The recent increase in M1/M2 is in lieu of the quantitative easings, which the Fed is trying to roll out of.  Reason?  The Fed now has a balance sheet of better than $4-trillion dollars, which is almost 25% of a whole year’s worth of GDP.

The problem with those assets?  (Mainly bundles of loans and such…) Well, the Fed and the mortgage outfits are totally screwed if the public – en masse – decides to walk out on the paper held by the Fed.  When someone stops paying, the value of a mortgage quickly free-falls toward zero which is why it’s so important to keep loans out of the “non-performing” column.

Again, this is precisely what economics would predict in a deflationary depression.  The Fed is trying to “build a bridge” over a terrible part of history over a gaping economic valley that could (and may) swallow the whole world.  Right now, we are still a year or two out from the bottom, which will come when bond yields get down to the zero level and we’re getting close.

But here’s the absolute key thing to remember:  America’s dollar will NOT go to zero any time soon.  But, if it does, the price of paid for real estate (*if you could find a buyer) would go to the moon, Jupiter, or the stars.  The government has a vested interest in making sure that doesn’t happen.

If the US dollar DIDN’T FAIL in the last hellatious depression (1930’s) then I keep asking myself, why would it now?

To be sure, at each turn of the great cyclical economy of the whole world, things tend to move “next country west” and so, this time around Asia looks like a decent hangout for people with money and we note that folks like commodity legend Jim Rogers aren’t in the US doing their trading.

Even so, the British pound didn’t fail in the last Depression, and so the US – even if losing its grip as the reserve currency – will likely follow the path of the UK in the last depression. 

Not that buying gold won’t be a good idea in time…. a year and maybe three or four. 

It’s just why would you buy gold when the long term chart has only recently begun to move up – and only a bit?

From the really long-term perspective, gold looks to me like it has done a major peak (back at the $1850’ish level) and has done a wave 1 down, a wave 2A, wave 2B, and we are in wave 3 now with a target of $1,400.

Unfortunately, however, after that, $1,000 or less comes into view.

The problem most people have is that they don’t see relative values in a long enough time scale.  A quick look at the ultra-long chart of the 10 or 30- year treasury ought to bring you to your senses.

The perfect time to buy a home (for new families) will be when the long term rate bottom is just in and that doesn’t seem to be right now. 

So we sit back, calmly watching the worrywarts and the hype festival in the inbox, an realize (as we point out to Peoplenomics readers twice weekly) the long game is what matters and the ultra long game matters above all.  People have a hard time with that, but a “Foo and his goo are soon poo…” to Shakespeare it.

THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE. 

Since making money is so much like golf, this is how I’ve teed up and it’s my shot for the green.  We can make adjustments when comes down to putter time.  For now, hand me a 7-iron, would you?  The chip shots are for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers (who make UrbanSurvival possible, by the way).  But occasionally we’ll review the Tee shots here…

The Future Close At Hand

All of which doesn’t get us past grabbing at the Tums or taking a swig on the Kaopectate/kay-0oh-poop-straight as things look likely to head into major conflict conflict window.  As I wrote in one of my rare Sunday Strategic notes on March 16:

While you go dust under the bed, for the Spring Scary Season, the smart money around here has circled April 23rd, or thereabout, for the full-on military moves to begin in eastern Europe. 

And just to toss in a dash of Pickapeppa sauc (4pack), here comes a note from G.A. Stewart, author of the Age of Desolation and a/the leader in modern thinking on Nostradamus:

George,
A reader sent me this video clip on March 9th, after things with Russia began heating up.  Father Malachi Martin: Vatican insider.
Listen at 11:55

Question: Does Russia still play a roll in the Miracle of Fatima even though the Iron Curtain has come down…
Father Malachi Martin: It does, it does… Russia will be converted by my Immaculate Heart…
… So, Russia is still within the plan.
…That would take me too far afield into Papal Secrets.
…Why Russia and Kiev are involved in the final solution to this problem, but they are.

The plan is in man… Father Malachi Martin proves it.

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The market will fall today.  It is NOT the end of the world.  That comes this summer.

Peoplenomics subscribers, though, have to be deliriously happy with our Trading Model which has, for about the past three weeks been setting up on a “replay of summer 2011” and which I trade quite publicly.  It’s one thing to have a trading model that keeps you in the Big Trends, but it’s another to bet against it and the market as I have been. Neener, neener.  Ure wins a cheeseburger.   For a change, the market is coming around to my way of thinking.

I’ve mentioned Roget Reynolds email list a number of times.  He’s an “old hand” (OK, not that old…) at markets and he sent out a note after Thursday’s little bloodletting…

DID YOU KNOW THAT—-LAST FRIDAY APRIL 4, 2914 THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE MADE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH. BUT—DID YOU KNOW THAT ON AN HOURLY BASIS IT DID A BROADENING TOP PATTERN DURING THE DAY? THIS COMPLETED A BIGGER BROADENING TOP STARTING ABOUT MARCH 1. —-BUT, THIS COMPLETED AN EVEN BIGGER BROADENING TOP STARTING ABOUT DECEMBER 1.

SINCE THE BROADENING TOP IS A FORM OF DISTRIBUTION PATTERN—-IT MEANS SOMEONE HAS BEEN SELLING AGRESSIVELY ON EVERY UPTHRUST SINCE DEC 1.

SINCE THE 2007 TOP WAS ALSO A BROADENING TOP OF ABOUT 4 MONTHS—-JUNE TO

EARLY OCTOBER—-INVESTORS SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THEIR STOCKS.

If you want on his list, try sending him a note at randkreynolds@usa.net as he’s been kind enough to accommodate new readers in the past. 

Tomorrow’s Peoplenomics will pick up the pieces after today’s session but for now the big battle today will be whether the S&P will be able to close the week over 1835 on the S&P.  If it doesn’t, then the market’s next level down ought to be 1740 (Robin Landry) or 1751 (Ure) and in any event, I’m still thinking about the 1,540 level around the 4th of July.

But I’m not the only one looking at this scenario, apparently:  Dow looks set to open firmly down again and with it, all kinds of talk about the end of the financial world.  And with good reason, mind you.

As I pointed out in Thursday’s headline “Bad News is Good News! (But it’s really BAD)” the news really is bad.  We’ve just gotten onto it way sooner than most…which is what we do around here.

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The markets are on crack.  A special kind of crack called “Easy Money.”  We’ve gone from Helicopter Ben to Jump-shot Janet. Let’s  run through a nickel-bag’s worth of data:

• Russia hasn’t finished its exercising yet and hasn’t pulled back.
• Ukraine is still a mess that could flash nuclear any time.
• The US is hinting that we might send troops to beef up NATO.
• The Baltic Dry Index is falling quickly.,
• Beef prices have just hit all-time highs
• Presidential and congressional approval ratings suck
• The police state emergence continues (we’ll get more into that in a sec)
• And robots are coming to take all our jobs.  Firemen next.

So what does the stock market do when the Fed hints in its meeting minutes that there might be a  delay in interest rates going up?  The market rallies!

The lone (but very reasonable) dissent noted in the Fed Minutes came from Board member Narayana Kocherlakota:

“Mr. Kocherlakota dissented because, in his view, the new forward guidance in the fifth paragraph of the statement would weaken the credibility of the Committee’s commitment to its inflation goal by failing to communicate purposeful steps to more rapidly increase inflation to the 2 percent target and by suggesting that the Committee views inflation persistently below 2 percent as an acceptable outcome. Moreover, he judged that the new guidance would act as a drag on economic activity because it provided little information about the desired rate of progress toward maximum employment and no quantitative measure of what constitutes maximum employment, and thus would generate uncertainty about the extent to which the Committee is willing to use monetary stimulus to foster faster growth.”

Now, let me explain the mechanics of this, in case you’re not clear on it:  The reason the Fed is not already raising rates is that the the economic recovery has been buried.  Hiring more police and bureaucrats is just barely able to keep up with core jobs going down the tube.  The unemployment rate is stuck at 6.7 and institutionalized  unemployment has become a sad fact of life.

Let me put it this way, if the coffee hasn’t hit yet:  Recovery is sick and on life support.

What the Fed minutes mean is what?  They are admitting that things are bad!

So what rally?

Well, we get back to interest rates.  The longer rates are held low, the longer the hedge funds can get (essentially free) money from the Fed though puppet bankermediaries, and this gets spun up and poured into even more stocks.  The higher they go, eventually the further they’ll….what?

And since there’s not enough IPO action of late, the existing stock prices are bid up anyway even if sales are flat and the profits go offshore.

So that’s why the market screamed ahead yesterday:  the bad news (that the Fed might not have the pricing power to raise rates as soon as their own press hype held) means that the upper class will continue to get free lunches like they’re going out of style.

If there was anything to the notion that trickledown worked, we would see a 20% across the board increase in money for Social Security recipients.  Oh, and the money’s there if anyone in Washington would fix their low-T issues.  For instance:

There are wire service reports that there are $2.1 trillion in untaxed US corporate profits laying around offshore.  Got that?  UNTAXED.

Let’s run some numbers, shall we?

OK, let’s assume that $2.1 trillion didn’t all pile up in the last year.  Let’s say it’s only $1-trillion worth.  And let’s then figure that could all result in a 20% corporate tax revenue increase.  $200-billion.

Now, it says over on this Social Security site that we have 63.4 million people on social security.

That means that IF the government would get off its ass and go collect the tax-evading money due, we would be able to send out a $3,000 bonus check to everyone on Social Security this year.  ($3,154 and change to be more precise.)

And that would jump-start the bejesus out of the US economy.  Some seniors would buy a new car, eat out now and then, and in the even, since we grays are always handing money out to the kids, this would really “trickle down” to the family level and would allow employers to raise wages and all kinds of other happy outcomes.  Force multiplier.

Solutions like this should be obvious as hell to anyone with a lick of common sense.  Oh, wait.  I may be at the root of the problem here… How else can government officialdumb keep ignoring the chance to snag a fat gift for We the People that keeps on giving? 

THE ANSWER is simple, but ugly:  Payoffs to the people in office.  Via unlimited campaign dough.  K-Street Mafia.  Interstate election buyer co-ops…you know the drill.  You’re the one being drilled here…

Who needs a Don Corleone when there are special interest groups with unlimited dough?  Political crime is the new organized crime and it’s been legitimized by the courts.

Between taxing corporate profits and selectively hitting back at K-Street America could be won back.  But the fix is in because good people – people who went to Washington with integrity – have failed to keep their on on the real problems of this great land.

While attorney general Eric Holder, argues “vast discretion” over the enforcement of laws (selective enforcement/tolerance policies), I’d venture the American public is sick of the ruling  financial class which just got a green light from the Supreme Corporate Court to keep out-bidding the regular people who live in America. 

Ain;’t gonna happen, but it would be nice.   If Holder can’t answer a  subpoena in more than a year, it’s hoping too much that he’ll be able to tax offshore money in the short time before his boss if out.

Corporate feudalism is the future.  The Obamanista “change” was just another marketing slogan repeated ad nausea to the simpleton voters.  And sure, it suck to be us…because the Fed minutes belie the truth:  that recovery is more smoke and mirrors than walking-around money in you pocket.

And that’s why the market rallied: Out of your pocket, safely into theirs.  America’s just been bent over again.

More after this.  And after my blood pressure comes down enough to continue looking through the crap rolling off the wires this morning…

Nevada: Research on “The Jackboot Cycle”

My consigliere counseled me Wednesday:  “What the government is guilty of in Nevada is gross stupidity…”

It was hardly a breakthrough thought, since I’d just read that story about the town of 7,.000 in Ohio getting a tank… but still, fair point.

The long story made short is a Nevada rancher who disputed land grazing bills from the Bureau of Land Management is now surrounded by 200 federal agents who are picking up his cattle to pay the bill. And it is not like this hasn’t been going on for a while.  The court order against Cliven Bundy in the case has been on the books since July 9th of last year:

IV. CONCLUSION
IT IS HEREBY ORDERED that the United States’ Motion for Summary Judgment (#18)
is GRANTED.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that defendant Cliven Bundy’s Motion to Dismiss (#28) is
DENIED as moot.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that Bundy is permanently enjoined from trespassing on
the New Trespass Lands.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the United States is entitled to protect the New
Trespass Lands against this trespass, and all future trespasses by Bundy.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that Bundy shall remove his livestock from the New
Trespass Lands within 45 days of the date hereof, and that the United States is entitled to
seize and remove to impound any of Bundy’s cattle that remain in trespass after 45 days of
the date hereof.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the United States is entitled to seize and remove to
impound any of Bundy’s cattle for any future trespasses, provided the United States has
provided notice to Bundy under the governing regulations of the United States Department
of the Interior.

So in comes the government to collect its due.

Except that they came in with helicopters, road blocks, and more.  Which has many people in Nevada upset including one reader who advises us:

I’m deeply involved in the ongoing effort to transfer the Federally managed public lands to Nevada as promised when Nevada joined the Union.

Nevada BLM was found by a judge in  the Hage case to have committed fraud and to have been in violation of Rico.  Nevada BLM is a criminal organization.  Use of snipers on Nevada’s public lands is outrageous, and the Clark County Sheriff is negligent and in violation of oath in not enforcing state law.

All of which brings up a critical question every state legislature in America ought to be asking at the end of all this:  Should the federal cessions of land be rethought?

The state cessions are those areas of the United States that the separate states ceded to the federal government in the late 18th and early 19th century. The cession of these lands, which for the most part lay between the Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi River, was key to establishing a harmonious union among the former British colonies.

The areas ceded comprise 236,825,600 acres (958,399 km²), or 10.4 percent of current United States territory, and make up all or part of 10 states.^[1] This does not include the areas later ceded by Texas to the federal government, which make up parts of five more states.

The further west you go, and the later in history, the murkier things become.  Don’t forget that the Texas Independence Movement figures the federal government still owes the state (in 2003-2004 dollars) about $7-trillion for the lands it got. 

Present legislatures and (effectively) eBayed politicians are not likely to make an issue of such facts as cession of land to the central government.  But the Nevada case puts this whole issue back on the table. And it’s one that won’t be gong away any time soon, as the central government continues to kick the public of public lands.

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