Coping: With My “Designated Smart Guys”

This about the easiest Monday morning column I’ve ever written.

That’s because of two phone calls Sunday from my list of “designated smart guys.”

Everyone has them, or should.  They’re the people who work in an industry, have a specialized practices, or some skill or exceptional expertise that sets them apart from run-of-the-mill people who don’t think, don’t store intellectual capital, and who couldn’t connect two dots to form a line to save their souls.

The world is full of “average” people, for a reason: Laziness.

It’s simple enough to cure, fortunately:  All you need is a design template:  If you want to be like smart, successful people, all you need to do is spend your time talking and learning from (care to guess?) smart and successful people..

I like to share the thoughts of my “Designated Smart Guys” (Ure’s Brain Trust) because they are extremely smart people and when they nod in a particular direction, you’re best advised to look where directed, because something BIG is likely coming from off yonder thataway.

The first call was from my friend Howard Hill, who recently published the definitive book on how the Housing Bubble collapses.  The book hasn’t sold particularly well, but that’s because it was late to market.

In the world of high finance opinions are made quickly, but unfortunately, it can be argued that books prior to Howard’s missed key aspects of the crisis.  They simply got it wrong.  Howard’s book, on the other hand, really takes things apart, gets it right, and extracts a lesson which is useful to UrbanSurvival/Peoplenomics readers who invest in the longer-term  and don’t so much care about scalping a dime today and a nickel tomorrow.

Howard doesn’t write enough, but when he gets into a serious writing mood (three very excellent posts in one weekend) I feel compelled to share Howard’s work with you as incredibly useful in developing your understanding of high finance.

So part one of this morning’s column is to read the following (in this order):

Are We There Yet?

The Next Big One Might Already Be Warming Up

Three Conditions and Three Warning Signs

How to Tell if the Next Financial Crisis is Upon Us.

It’s a Wonderful Business

Bailey Bros Building and Loan

The last one will particularly appeal to people who enjoy Jimmy Stewart’s role in the Christmas Season classic – it’s a reminder of just how deeply ingrained our canonization of the financial industry is. 

Oh, and it also is yet-another reason to believe that “The Movie is the Message” as our Gulfstream-crowd sources have mentioned on many occasions. 

When one of the inventors of Financial Engineering as a craft calls, I listen.

But that wasn’t the only call to pass on from Sunday.

The second call was from a very knowledgeable smart guy in a different field: Military affairs. 

While we can’t reveal his former rank or other personally identifiable information, what I can tell you is when a former US Defense Attaché calls, I pay strict attention..

In particular, as we are watching The Global Caliphate get rolled out, watch Constantinople closely and check the Wiki entry for Ottoman Empire.  The hint of future from that exchange was simple:  Watch the Turks

During the 16th and 17th centuries, in particular at the height of its power under the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent, the Ottoman Empire was a powerful multinational, multilingual empire controlling much of Southeast Europe, Western Asia, the Caucasus, North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.[11] At the beginning of the 17th century the empire contained 32 provinces and numerous vassal states. Some of these were later absorbed into the empire, while others were granted various types of autonomy during the course of centuries.[dn 4]

With Constantinople as its capital and control of lands around the Mediterranean basin, the Ottoman Empire was at the center of interactions between the Eastern and Western worlds for six centuries.

The advice from our source is simple:  Notice that religion in Turkey is 67% Sunni and that their most recent leader has been turning from his predecessor’s Western-leanings back to a more traditional Sunni social structure.  Which, in case it’s too early to connect the dots, makes Turkey a key ISIS player, even while they may put on some NATO duds now and then.

Turkey has “run” the ‘Stans before, all the way to Mongolia, so while we watch the birthing of the Global Caliphate, I expect relations to warm between the Saudis and the Turks and for ISIS to continue gathering resources in that part of the world.

Also, you may find one other part of the conversation interesting:  Why Russia may be expected to double-down on any Ukraine bets. 

It comes down to two things:  Most Russian military hardware depends, at least in some measure, on parts made in Ukraine.  The other key point is that Ukraine is Russia’s breadbasket, not to mention the Crimea being their only warm water port.

The EU desperately needs another financial date rape (ask Cyprus, Greece, and others about how much fun this is), but Russia is not about to be bullied by cookie-pushers into a Western rollover.  Not without bigger trouble than we can afford. 

2017?  We should be in the depths of the economic collapse, and that will speed up Armageddon since many of China’s five-year plans for 2020 are working well ahead of schedule.

Not later than 2020, seems our front row seats at World Collapse will be ready for prime time and if you haven’t resettled well away from a major city by then, please take a few moments of which country invented firestorm attacks on civilian populations. 

Two hints:  Dresden and Hamburg.

Along with Nagasaki and Hiroshima, these kinds of highly successful attacks on civilian populations set the USA up for a 70-year run as a global superpower.

Surely, you and I can’t be the only ones who have noticed?

Around the Ranch:  Leaf Me Alone

It you ever wondered about living out in the woods, there is one tiny detail that is NOT it any sales brochure.

It’s the matter of how many leaves come off the hardwood trees around here in the wintertime.

Sunday I finished up hours and hours of leaf blowing because if we don’t blow the leaves off, what passes (barely) for a lawn gets covered with so many leaves that sunlight doesn’t reach the plants and then the grass dies….all of it.

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Super-Prepper Alert: Could the US Population Be Controlled?

Say, here’s a wild-eyed thing to consider if you’re a prepper:  Can the US Population be controlled?  Not that it’s impertinent, since we have had demonstrations in places like Ferguson and more recently, New York, Dallas, and elsewhere.

So to what degree can the civilian population be controlled?  It’s an important question to investors to keep up on, since how people feel has everything to do with who feels enough confidence in the future to put some money behind it in the way of investments.

Before we get into the details, though, our usual first stops will include a few news stories that being to sketch out something I’m calling the “Workberg”.  Remember, last time we stood on the bring of America The Titanic, we coined the word “Debtberg” which, as projected, rolled over and caused the Housing Bubble to collapse.

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Jobs Report: What Really Matters

The Economic Outlook for the balance of this month couldn’t get much better.

For one, an increasingly unpopular president ought to be held in check by an incoming opposition congress, starting next month.  While this won’t be good for social issues (since both parties show up at the same paymaster window in Washington (staffed by the K Street Mafia), it will likely mean nothing (big) will get done.

And stability is something business likes.  A lot.

Going into this morning’s Employment Situation Report, the market has been holding near recent highs, the price of oil seems to be stabilizing around $66-$68.  Everyone knows that deflation is still out there, but as we explained earlier this week, when things like re-leasing previously leased cars (you can now lease the lease-return cars) the hyper-optimization of the auto industry seems to be sure to push auto sales to more highs, yet.   Even if we hit the skids in the new year and layoffs bounce off historical lows.

Economically speaking, it’s like we’re all passengers on the Titanic and we have all rushed up on deck to admire the field of icebergs which have been going by.  One was named AIG, but we got by that one, a small one was named Madoff, and there’s a group of bergs called the “naked short-selling” bergs, yet none of it seems to matter.

While following the ice breaker Dodd Frank, we seem to believe nothing can go wrong.  But when one of the architects of complex financial instruments says the Dodd-Frank didn’t really clear any of the ice ahead, you should take notice. 

Yet most don’t and won’t…such is the nature of the extraordinary popular delusions of crowds.

But not without reason.

There is just enough evidence that growth is returning to keep even the most skeptical over on the long side of the markets. 

I’ve been hinting at a further decline in the unemployment rate this month for a while so let’s fast-forward to this morning’s press release:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing.

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Coping: With the Predictive Power of Dreams

Before we get into some of the most fascinating work of the National Dream Center (on their outlook from 4-weeks ago) for Hawaii to be hit with a big something this weekend, a personal note first.

As you know, I have dreams now and then which seem to hold predictive content.  Perhaps the most detailed example was under “Irwin Allen’s Dreams” which accurate described many aspects and attributes of the Gulf Horizon oil rig disaster in he Gulf of Mexico some 18-hours before it happened.

This morning I had another one of those odd dreams and I’m not sure what it meant, but there were two physical features of the dream that were most curious.

The first involved an airplane flying and it had something to do with three mountains.

The mountains are three progressively higher peaks, with A being the lowest, B the mid-sized one, and C being the largest and (significantly?) the most rugged.

The problem ahead was for an airplane that would be taking off from the runway, traveling right to left and then following the flight path indicated between the smaller mountain and the middle-sized one, and then running into difficulty with sufficient altitude trying to climb over the largest mountain to the right…

Not that it is meaningful… just a curiosity and something to be aware of:  Plane trouble in mountains on departure from somewhere.  Green, rounded and jagged mountains.  Or not.

Side Note:

Both Elaine and I had extremely intense, vivid dreams last night – in another part of mine there was a visit to a coast with a mysterious (unexpected, unseasonal) fog.

The oddity?  Zeus the Cat, our Editor in Chief, was full of piss and vinegar this morning in a most unusual way.  You know how cats will sometimes get that “Wild-Eyed” look to them?  He was chasing imaginary critters all over the place…very strange behaviors for this animal – never seen it before in the house to this degree.

But that gets us to another project to hand off to Chris McCleary who has taken up the www.nationaldreamcenter.com project:  In addition to running language bots against the dreams people have, would it be possible to add an “intensity scale” so dreamers could, with a click, rate their dream intensities?

The reason for suggesting this line of inquiry is what?  The damn cat.

It seems intuitively true that there may be a cycle to people’s dreams.  A time of moon phase, maybe the location of a planet, or something on that order, which seems to reduce the veil between knowledge/visioning while in the sleep state and when the most intense dreams take place.

My personal “hot zone” for dreams seems to run from full moon to third quarter, and sure enough, full moon time, so the arising vivid dreams is not so unexpected.

Wikipedia has this quickie course in “lunacy” as in lunatic

The term lunatic derives from the Latin lunaticus which originally referred mainly to epilepsy and “madness” as diseases caused by the Moon.[3] By the fourth and fifth centuries astrologers began to commonly use the term to refer to neurological and psychiatric diseases.[3] Philosophers such as Aristotle and Pliny the Elder argued that the full Moon induced insane individuals with bipolar disorder by providing light during nights which would otherwise have been dark, and affecting susceptible individuals through the well-known route of sleep deprivation.[4] Through at least 1700 it was also a common belief that the Moon influenced fevers, rheumatism, episodes of epilepsy and other diseases.[

I have known a fair number of “out there” people in my life, running into them both as real nutters/crazies on the one hand, or those who express as gifted/geniuses, particularly in music, on the other.  One of the rewards of being a long-time professional journalist.

What comes through when you interview such people is that their worldviews are, for lack of a better term, “canted” this way or that.  If you think of human consensus as a compass needle that tends to point in a single direction, these people express views that may be anywhere from totally on track to 90-degrees (and in many cases orthogonal to) the generally way humans convince one another to behave.

In other words, to make the “herd of animals” analogy, these would be the critters on the outer edges of the herd, tuned in to a different kind of sensing that the rest of the herd.  Depending on their behavior, the rest of the herd might move this way, or that, in regard to a particular “danger” – or, in the case of non-violent or prophetic thinkers – away from new knowledge which “the herd” doesn’t want to (or have an ability to) come to terms with.

Ergo, date-stamping  the dream date becomes important and while each dream has a “posting date” the fact is that I’ve read many dreams in the Dreambase (which is what you call a database of dreams, right?) that were stamped with one date (posting) yet often referred to a dream from a different date.  Most are a couple of days, but I saw a few as old as 2-5 years which would seriously skew the data.

Hawaii’s Near Miss

Long-time subscriber Teresa in the Philippines sent a note this morning which ties into the discussion of dreams:

“Hi George, it’s been a long while since I’ve communicated.  This is to let you know another super typhoon headed our way in the next day or two.  We still have not gotten over the “Yolanda” that hit us in the South especially, Tacloban last year. 

This typhoon, “Ruby” is 100 MPH more powerful  than last year’s. If the Philippines is still afloat after Sunday,  we will let you know.

From the Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical website, we can see how the Philippines will be smacked hard this weekend by Super Typhoon Ruby.

Maybe Monday Teresa could check back with us on an update, as many people are interested to find out how this typhoon compares with other ones of recent vintage.

One of the more fascinating questions (which puts us up into the timeframe of two full weeks, maybe three from now is what happens if this bad boy heads into the subarctic and then ricochets off as another “polar vortex” like the recent storm did a month and a half, or so, back from Hawaii up to the Arctic and then bouncing down onto Canada and the US with record cold…

How the DreamCenter Fits All This

Remember their warnings about Hawaii?  Well, in dreams, one lush set of tropical islands looks pretty much like any other.  A note from DreamCenter director Chris McCleary offers this:

Typhoon Expected in the Pacific

At a minimum, we already have a headline that fulfills today’s Red Alert. That makes sense based on historical timing, but there are still questions needing answers, and one of those questions is….wouldn’t this event take Hawaii off the table?

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You Know Markets Are in a Blow-Off Top When….

Glad I’m not the only one seeing it.

Just remember all our references to the Roaring Twenties and how we’re in the replay.

Then flip over to this Financial Times article that says the market has put in the biggest string of record sessions since

1929!

I don’t expect you to remember stocks that year peaked in September (3rd to be exactly) and then plunged in October, but from where this market finally gives up on its string of rallies, we keep counting 55-days forward.

Now, thanks to Grady at the www.nostracodeus.com project, we can see pencil in Iran action in mid-to-late April of next year.  If his date has any substance to it (April 19, more in “coping” below) then we can simply back-track 55 days and begin to eye February 23rd as when the markets should be hitting their all-time highs that should stand for decades.

Between here and there?  Ain’t got nothing to fear, but fear itself, as one quote has it.

There was a bit of good news in economic numbers yesterday, not the least of which was the chart (right) showing that there has been a major increase in hiring in the small business arena (employers of less than 500 employees).

Whether this is because three guys and a six pack, programming a new app constitutes a “company” I can’t tell, but any port in a storm, huh?

“What storm, Ure?”

Oh, the wild-ass deflation that has started to lay the seeds of the rig laydowns we talked about Tuesday.  And did’ja see where a gas station in Okie-lahoma has dropped gas down below $2-bucks…the first such instance since 2010 according to the report?

Still not convinced?  How about the ECB being unable to raise interest rates due to the crappy conditions in EU-land?  Hell of a note when even the banksters are having a hard time figuring out how to make a buck, even with access to free money. 

You knew that….you’ve just been told “It’’ ain’t so!”  ‘Cept it is, of course.  Your problem may be not casting your info nets far enough to fish up more truth.

Still in the Roaring Though

Press release on the Challenger Job Cut report is just out:

Downsizing activity by U.S.-based employers declined by 30 percent in November, with 35,940 planned job cuts announced during the penultimate month of 2014, according to the report Thursday from global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. The November slowdown comes just one month after job cuts surged 70 percent to 51,183 in October. The November total was 21 percent lower than the 45,314 job cuts announced the same month a year ago.

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Coping: With Taxes & Another Sign of “Renting Life”

There is a huge change underway in the world:  It used to be that the objective of hard work was to “own your life.”

Say you started off as a young person in the Great Depression (as some of our readers have):  Back then the idea was pretty simple – it’s the philosophy of our way of living, too – Own Everything Outright.

The reason for doing so should be obvious:  If you live on five acres of land, with some diligence and ingenuity, you can survive without assistance from anyone and that includes government.  All that needs to be done to keep government at bay is to obey laws and pay taxes on your property.  End of story.

Since the New Deal, however, government has become much more intrusive, not to mention soaring property and other tax rates.

One reason Elaine and I are reluctant to leave our little place in the woods is that 28.8 acres, a modular home, 40-by-40 shop/office building with it’s own apartment for the brother-in-law, and a 12×12 storage building costs us $843.63 per year in property taxes now that we get the senior discount.  Even so, last year it was still under $1,000.

On  our fact-gathering travels this year we talked to a lot of people in the different states along the way.  We’d ask about the cost of living, but mostly it comes down to how taxes are stacked.  In most states there is a property tax, sales tax, and in some even and income tax.  By the time you toss in county and city sales taxes, you can make up a simple tax index that explains a lot about the local cost of living.

When we looked as several properties we were shocked to see how Washington had a property tax that was on the order of $3,200 for most homes in the $200-300-thousand range.  Did you happen to notice how in the housing bubble collapse, property taxes didn’t come down accordingly for many people?

Still, the cost of living in our home here in  the outback is about $71 a month.  On Social Security that’s an acceptable number.  For people who bought the nice home of the beach in the northwest (typically taxed in the 4,000-6,000 range, you could be talking up to $500/month just to stay in your own home that you paid for.

Government’s your silent partner who will stab you in the back if you blink.

Still, in the wake of the Great Depression, people had a lot of this stuff figured out.  Property prices were cheap, and interest rates were reasonable.  Even so, a down payment of 50% wasn’t uncommon and homes were usually paid off in 10-15-years.  Of course, since America still had a lot of handcrafting and trade skills about, millions of people actually built their own homes.,

A couple of my relatives, including one late uncle in particular, who built fine homes…better than most builders would put in.  For about $15,000 in materials (not counting the labor) on e home I remember was sold for well over $100,000.  That home was one his family lived in while he built a newer home next door.

Thus, a man with some gumption and get-up-and-go could build a great retirement nest egg with some hard work and sweat equity.  Come time to retire, a person could sell the property on a real estate contract, without a bank getting a cut, an Bingo!  Retirement set for life with lots of money coming in from mortgages.

If there was social security, fine, but a man (or woman) who likes to work with their hands can easily build 3-4 houses in a lifetime, and develop a pretty good income stream that way.

This is how people thought in the Depression…and for fifty years following…..because it makes sense.

That’s a part of our history that is going away and the design of the PowersThatBe can be seen at many levels

First; in order to really shake the money out of people, you have to “de-skill” them.  Convince people that industrial skills lake carpentry, woodworking, metal smithing, welding, working concrete or tile, doing electrical and plumbing; all that is manual labor.  Then cast manual labor as bad.

Now you’ve got a government “three-fer” going: 

First, people won’t be able to support themselves in America, so it sets up the need to bring in immigrants to do work Americans are no longer willing, or able, to do themselves.  This, in turn, sets up social disasters in education, crime, drugs, and so forth, but that, in turn, means more jobs and THAT is a dandy excuse to collect more taxes.

Second thing that happens is the people move into smaller and tighter quarters in suburban areas which are then too small for people to support themselves on.  So now hardly anyone is allowed to build their own homes (we’re blessed this way) and as a result, government gets to set up licensing bureaus to issue permissions to bang a nail, install a wire, or toss in a new sink.  Permissions is a whole government industry that ranges from the Zoning folks, who have stolen your right to do anything you want if you own your own land, to the building inspectors who won’t let you work on even simple home wiring or construction, unless you pull a permit.

Then, since you probably don’t hold a general contractor’s license, you can’t do your own work on your own property…and strangest of all, it’s in these places that home prices go up the most, which means those governments are rewarded for permission-restrictions and they collect more what?  (Property Taxes!)

Thirdly, the requirements to hold a contractor ticket for most trades means industrial arts are not being taught in the schools like they once were.  You talk about a complete and utter disaster?  But government knows best:  It knows that independent people who assert their property and “King of their own Castle” rights wouldn’t put up with such things voluntarily, but then comes the Education Industry which parcels out student indentures for millions of students who will never work in the field for which they have trained.  There is NO market for Middle Ages History experts, except regurgitating the same facts to the next group of victims.

I don’t mean to start off on a sour note, like this, but Elaine and I went to the big city Wednesday to do a little shopping.

Sure enough, while listening to the radio on the way back to the ranch, we heard yet-another scheme to turn even more people into permanent “Life Renters.”

It was an ad to lease a used vehicle.

The ad pitch was pretty simple: 

“You know how a lease works:  A person leases a new car, rather than buying it.  But now, you can lease that recent model, low mileage car and the first owner will have taken the depreciation on it!  We call this program re-leasing.  And it allows you a much smaller monthly payment.  In fact, in order to get a car this cheaply, you’d have to take out a six-year conventional loan.  So why not just re-lease a car for a much smaller payment?”

The rest of the trip home, I just sat there shell-shocked.  America has lost its way Big Time when the idea of building personal equity (ownership) has been hollowed out to this degree.

Not that it hasn’t been tried elsewhere:  You remember, I’m sure, my previous rants about the dangers of the 40-year home mortgage.

But this is where America seems to be going:  We’ve gone from a fine idea to a population of 317-million asset-strippers in just a few generations.

People who  develop and personally hold equity have little use for Big Government.  On the other hand, people without two nickels to rub together are totally dependent on Big Government, right down to meals and housing.

In the past, the balance has been somewhat reasonable, but that’s quickly fading in the rear view mirror.  And with it, the America that once was.

What is the functional difference between democratic socialism and we have now?  I’m having a hard time seeing it.  And every time I pay taxes or hear an ad on the radio announcing yet-another-way to asset-strip (into more “rent-your-Life”) the blur continues to build until now it’s looking like the fall of the old Soviet Union was just a trick to push America down the same subtle agenda.

When you change from a Land of Personal Initiative to a Land of Permission, there’s a price. An d the price keeps going up as the level of government dependency is raised. And even more when new schemes to lower personal equity come along.

What disappears over time?  Oh, uh, just…uh….Freedom.

Futuring: Disaster in Q2 of ‘15?

Not to put too fine a point on it, but it we are building into a year-end market peak, then we should see a marvelous decline in Q1 that could be tradable, even by us reprobates who manage our own money.

We don’t often put glimpses of the future out there, but this note from chief programmer of the www.nostracodeus.com project, Grady,  seems to exactly fit with where some chart projects have things in free-fall:

We’ve been seeing indications that Iran would be going to war but we didn’t think it would be in support of the fight against ISIS. It is. Iranian Phantom Jets have been spotted doing bombing runs on ISIS targets in Iraq.  John Kerry cautiously welcomed the help this afternoon. [3 December 2014] It got us to wondering if it will have any effect in future nuclear talks with Iran. There will be more of Iran in this fight April 19, 2015

Markets almost always need a scapegoat.  My guess in some golden mushrooms would be a dandy distraction from a self-imploding blow-off market top.

But, that’s only a guess, for now.  Still,  Israel has made its “line in the sand” clear enough that sooner or later that’s bound to turn into a line in the glass.

You’ll notice I refer to that part of the world as where the Sand Peoples live.  Within a decade, tops, I reckon to change the reference to the Glass Peoples for this reason.

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Boats As Bug-Out Platforms

A reader request brings me back to one of my favorite pastimes of life:  Boating.  Specifically, he wondered, realizing that I lived on a 40-foot floating survival platform for more than a decade, what would I do in today’s world?  Which boat…details like that.

If I wasn’t 65?  Or, if I hadn’t built an ideal survival platform in the middle of the country which can be more self-sufficient than a boat?  These are incredibly complex discussions, but I want to share his question and show you some darn interesting things about boats and bug-out tools…many of which you may not know – even if you are a boat owner yourself.

But first the headlines and another peak at the blow-off top that’s ongoing here in the latter part of the Greater Depression’s replay of the Roaring Twenties.  We don’t have the flappers and prohibition, but lots of other social taboos of the more modern sort…it’s just the kind of thing we like to chew on around here…

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Did Malware Slow Today’s report

All kinds of computer treachery around here this morning…report prepared in skeleton form for later this week was twisted up into this morning’s and there’s been a flash sent out from government computer experts to businesses to keep an eye on things for a malware attack.  Server hasn’t been cl;earing cached data proper…all kinds of baldness inspiring crap going on.

Not like I’m alone though…

Sony Pictures is coming back up to normal operations after a devastating attack that left a lot of its operations exposed….

Oil and Energy Wars

We note that Russia is giving up on plans for a southern gas pipeline project, and while blaming Europe in the process, there is likely more to this.

The Wall St. Journal this morning report, for example, that Russia looks to be headed into a recession in 2015 and that’s the kind of thing that the West might look at with some satisfaction, in that it’s Russia punitive actions have really started to bite and bite hard.

The Global Game

Is pretty much unchanged this morning on the interest rate front. India is apparently looking to ease rates perhaps next year.  That might make for something of an economic rally.

There’s also a report that RBA (Australia) may lower rates next year, as well.  The problem with this is that such a decline would only reinforce what oil prices have been telling us:  Global deflation, not inflation is the big problem now.

This has tremendous implications for investors in things like precious metals:  Don’t dismiss our long-standing belief that as the world’s economies go into their last-gasp death throes that gold could sink well under $1,000 before printing money goes absolutely crazy in a few years.

Commodity prices have stabilized going into the open and there has been oil trading back up to the $68 range, but that doesn’t eliminate the “rig lay down” issue covered in Monday’s report.  Below a certain level ($60-$75 and we could argue that all day) putting in new rigs doesn’t make sense.

As one reader noted, when you hear ads on the radio to bring new investors into the oil and gas exploration business with hype about owning an oil well, you can almost bet more downside is out there.

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Coping: With the Lost Art of Adventuring

MY brother-in-law who lives in his own apartment on the property with us, and who is retired military (SF & Rangers) is getting the wanderlust again, and so are we.

I’ve been eyeing a weather window next week where we might be able to pick up some strong tail winds out of Texas and head west to Arizona to do some high country flying.  Panama has been half eyeing homes out in the Las Vegas area because none of us are exactly “retirement material.”

The house is approaching ideal but that doesn’t leave much to do.  A couple of days with a small dozer to put in a small lake, raise some fresh water shrimp and put in pasture for some beefs might work.  Time in the garden, too….but to what end?  We look for ends – great adventures as just such things to us tumbleweed types…

Travel and adventure is what life’s about.  Growing up in Arizona, both Elaine and Panama like to get out and hike.  And t’other day when we were talking about it, Panama mentioned how he wanted to be back in the West again, so he could pull off the highway (wherever) and just go hiking as he did in his earlier days.

In his military career, I thought he would have gotten his fill of hiking, especially after hiking 600 miles from Turkey toward Europe to catch up with his unit.  They’d been out practicing “go to ground” and he did it, umm, a little too well.  When no one could find him, they simply left. 

That’s the short version of the hike, but he’d had others. In our discussion, the idea of “pulling off the road and being able to walk for 10 miles…” came up.

Sadly. I told him of our most recent 6,000 miles drive a couple of months ago.  “Even in places where you’d think you could get out and hike,” I explained “There’s really not much of anywhere to do it.  Even in the wilds of southern Wyoming, heading west on I-80 toward Salt Lake from Fort Collins and Loveland, most every foot of land is now fenced, at least along the road.”

To be sure, that’s a stretch, but over 2/3rd’s of Wyoming looks fenced from the freeways, at least.  And if you park your car by the edge of the road, it’s likely not to be there if you return in much more than 3-4 hours.  Police don’t want derelicts left by the road, so it becomes a tag ‘em & bag ‘em.

Not at all like camping trips in the 1950’s when barbed wire was rare in the BC interior where we waded through brush to fly fish pristine lakes.

We’ve seen some places where you can still get out and walk, like West Texas, but even here the art of exploring is quickly fading.  For one thing, if you do it within a hundred miles of the border you’re likely to stumble into either CBP units or weed walkers and coyotes.

Up north, Utah and Wyoming, if you can find a break in the barbed wire, there’s still a lot of public land around, but access to the public is being systematically denied.  Access permits, fees, scheduling of hikes (as in the Sierra)…it’s all a gigantic change from open/natural to confining around the edges.

Worse, I hear from friends and relatives up north, that barbed wire sales are still brisk in places like the northern wilds of British Columbia and even Southeast Alaska.  Time was when a salmon troller, of the sort that used to work the 34-40 foot double-enders out of Seattle’s fisherman’s terminal back in the day, could simply winter-over in Southeast Alaska. Ever see a Columbia River Bowpicker?

The hardier, and single Alaska fishermen used to  pull into an inviting cove in the lee of an island, go ashore and build a woodpile, keep the small marine wood stove on the boat going more or less continuously.  For food, there was plenty in the cove, the case or three of Del Monte fruit cocktail would last until you went off to the nearest settlement for provisions.

Storms would come through, blow themselves out, and there was big game if you wanted to clear and smoke it.  Halibut and other seafood was easier.

Point is, back then America had a frontier.  I don’t know where the frontier is, except Southeast Alaska.  There are big open areas in the upper reaches of the Yukon, too, but places to explore without wearing thermal everything?  Ha!

Between privatizations, keeping the public off public lands, and septic requirements for boats, life at the fringe is getting to be just a damn nuisance.  Regulations galore and that means inspections and permissions….

The problem is people.  We have too many of ‘em.

In 1970 there were 3.7 billion people in the world.  I’d been out of high school for several years bv then.  A man like Panama, who’s a bit older than me, remembers the world as about 3-billion people and damn few of them were out trying to hike “public” or just vacant lands around Arizona’s Mogollon rim, or even once you got outside of Tucson 10 miles.  Hell, even I remember that one.

Today, world population is just a shade under 7.3 billion people.  And population is still growing by 75-million a year. 

To put that into perspective, that would be like adding everyone in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, and Houston (16.7 million) and doing it 4 1/2 times.  That’s why world ends badly, more’n likely.

In the short time I’ve been alive, enough people have been born such that if they could be stood on each other’s head, their combined height about be the distance from where you’re standing all the way to the moon 17-times over.

So I just thought I’d mention this morning that growth in small dribs and drabs in person victory over some obstacle, or other.  But in larger doses, it becomes cancerous.

Back when the world population was much smaller  (a mere 1.6 billion people) Joshua Slocum sailed a small boat named the Spray around the world alone, becoming the world’s first solo circumnavigator.

In 1899 he published his account of the epic voyage in Sailing Alone Around the World, first serialized in The Century Magazine and then in several book-length editions. Reviewers received the slightly anachronistic age-of-sail adventure story enthusiastically. Arthur Ransome went so far as to declare, “Boys who do not like this book ought to be drowned at once.”[16] In his review, Sir Edwin Arnold wrote, “I do not hesitate to call it the most extraordinary book ever published.”

Adventuring, at least on the scale of Slocum, or those wintering over trollers and gill-netters in Southeast Alaska are part of a dying breed.

The poet Robert Service, himself a veteran of the Yukon (where he was a bank teller, not explorer) did manage nonetheless to capture the gist of it in his “The Men Who Don’t Fit In.”

   There’s a race of men that don’t fit in,

    A race that can’t stay still;

   So they break the hearts of kith and kin,

    And they roam the world at will.

   They range the field and they rove the flood,

    And they climb the mountain’s crest;

   Theirs is the curse of the gypsy blood,

    And they don’t know how to rest.

 

   If they just went straight they might go far;

    They are strong and brave and true;

   But they’re always tired of the things that are,

    And they want the strange and new.

   They say:  “Could I find my proper groove,

    What a deep mark I would make!”

   So they chop and change, and each fresh move

    Is only a fresh mistake.

 

   And each forgets, as he strips and runs

    With a brilliant, fitful pace,

   It’s the steady, quiet, plodding ones

    Who win in the lifelong race.

   And each forgets that his youth has fled,

    Forgets that his prime is past,

   Till he stands one day, with a hope that’s dead,

    In the glare of the truth at last.

 

   He has failed, he has failed; he has missed his chance;

    He has just done things by half.

   Life’s been a jolly good joke on him,

    And now is the time to laugh.

   Ha, ha!  He is one of the Legion Lost;

    He was never meant to win;

   He’s a rolling stone, and it’s bred in the bone;

    He’s a man who won’t fit in.

 

Seems a bit odd to be writing a farewell to the Frontier.  After all, there always is one.

But the frontier of today is a line of code, an algorithm, a compiler, or may be app.

Something’s lost though, something old school and irreplaceable.   The difference between cold saltwater spray in the face when it’s 40-degrees out and the wind’s piped up to 25 out of the northwest, and having a breakthrough insight into a coding problem is a difference of day and night.

Technology is taking us to the land of non-physicality and I don’t like it.

Worth mentioning to the new generations that don’t write.  In fact, the whole idea of adventuring can be seen sinking into the horizon when it was reported last month that children in Finland will no longer be taught to write.  Instead, they will master keyboarding and mousing.

In Engineering terms, this begins to set up society for a massive epic fail:  When the power goes, so will the people.

And that is why adventuring matters.  It’s the natural reservoir from which human persistence springs.

Climate Note

Reader Ray H. who sends me sometimes daily critiques of my thought processes (don’t tell him but there are none), mentioned this about climate change:

[You wrote]

Is Earth warming? Yes. It from cutting down rainforests and burning off vegetation that used to cause more vertical air mass rising, which in turn brought rains and staved off desertification?

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Monday in the “Land of Lay-Downs”

We can now clearly see how (and more or less when) the US economy will fall apart:  Fall of 2016 is our latest and best dart toss after the long weekend of events.

Not just me, but my consigliore sees it as well.  He called in the middle of a movie last night:

I’ll keep this short.  You see what the Saudis are doing?”

“Yes:  We wanted them to take some of the cream from the Russians and put pressure on Putin by lowering oil prices.  Now they have figured out that if they keep going down with oil prices, they can pressure another competitor out of the picture, which would be us, the US.”

“And what did my model predict back in 1979?”

That once we hit the $65 level, Deflation will dig in hard for six months to a year or longer.  That will trigger drilling rig laydowns and that at the end of it, prices could come roaring back – maybe $150 a barrel, and then we’d see inflation like crazy as the folks in Washington try to inflate out of another deflation from a position of no ammunition left…”

“Yep, just wanted to make sure you saw it…back to your movie…”

“’K – Talk tomorrow….bye…”

And the only part to amplifying is the $63.72 commodity price for oil hit earlier in the day’s trading in London.  This weekend, there was a fair bit of hand-wringing by competent economic writers (example) who fear the Saudis are “paying with fire” but in reality, it’s more like neutering pliers.  Allow me…

If the Saudis can smash oil down into the $60 range, then US oil and gas exploration suddenly doesn’t pencil out so good…banks and investor groups will get a bunch of tax loss carry-forwards, rig work in the patch will dry up by late winter.

Acting all innocent-like, the Saudis will play dumb, hands up all apologetic and probably mumble “Free markets…who knew?”  Don’t fall for it.

THEY do like see exactly what’s ahead…and looks to me like they’re going for a two-fer.  And that, in turn, makes investing in markets a cinch to those who see it, and have a big hand in controlling it.  Even traditional hedges like gold, silver, and real estate may crater down under $1,000 in the coming six months.

Remember, my deflationist pal Jas Jain thinks there is more deflation to be worked out, so in terms of buying real estate, it could be another six-months before mortgage rates hit all-time lows. 

If this turns out to be the case, we may revise our personal plans a bit.  More for subscribers to our premium content over at www.peoplenomics.com when we discuss the deflationary discontinuity.

That’s because the real fire the Saudis are playing with is a panic discontinuity at the interest rate and oil bottom.  Once we’re a bit closer to it, we see how some Saudi families could (in one fell swoop) announce allegiance with the emergent Global Caliphate  (ISIS for now)  about the time they finish ending their equity sales, and with the West held in an oil-lock, the Global Caliphate could actually turn into a three-fer. 

So to recap: the components might be:

    1. Slowly reduce oil prices to induce a laydown of US drilling operations domestically in addition to Russia.
    2. In the controlled deflation, make oodles of money on soaring stocks (as in the Roaring Twenties)
    3. Then when stocks are judged very near their peak, sell off assets at the bubble high.
    4. Spook markets into collapse by aligning with ISIS/Global Caliphate which is now waging two fronts:  from Iraqi territory as well as North Africa as a set-up.  This Google topic search has oodles of background that isn’t in current headlines because events are a “slow-mover” and thus missed by ADHD infotainters.

    Some where in here, ISIS would more formally join ranks with the Palestinians to capture control of the Leviathan oil fields off Palestinian lands (Leviathan, which Israel eyes), and during the US Rig Laydowns, which we’ll stay tuned for, the Saudi bankers would likely buy up US energy assets at low-call prices and thus be effectively able to price control/tame the US market by holding out for $150 oil.  Owning the rights increases US control.

    It’s really quite graceful, scary, and admirable.

    The US State Department, being excessively educated, but not particularly smart, doesn’t have a clue since our economic policies (and ex PNAC thinking) on regime change is what has opened up all these moves on the chessboard…one which we’re virtually paralyzed from acting upon commencing January 15th or whenever the republican control of the Senate takes office.

    Because of the partisan split in Washington, which will about ensure gridlock, we will be sitting ducks, with laying down resources and no where to go but down. Not that the demos would have done better.  It’s like dumb and dumber II.

    I trust you’ll be ready for the slide and ride.  When American rigs begin to “lay down” it will start a chain reaction leading to the Great American Laydown as well. Whether it will be a result of incompetence in Washington or a hatched plan is about the only debatable detail.

    As always, we plan to stick around along enough for Armageddon, but for now, let’s pretend we’re passengers on the deck of the Titanic and we’re arguing about the type of iceberg we just hit.

    Ure, I’m telling you it is tabular or wedge-shaped berg.”

    “No, I insist it’s a pinnacle type.”

    “Blocky type, maybe…”

    What seems like good news on inflation is really bad news on deflation.  “Sell in May and go away” could have an ironic twist in 2015.  It’s when iceberg season begins, too.

    If you don’t see the Global Caliphate yet, just disparate ISIS actions, you’re not necessarily stupid.  You just don’t think about the important stuff because the six major corporations that control 90% of news content in America don’t care and are too lazy at laying out contexts.

    Besides, the Global Caliphate sets up Biblical End times, and no point getting ahead of things, yet. 

    Is there good news good news?  I mean such as it is or can be on a Cyber Monday?

    Yes!  Nuclear winter trumps climate change.  So the only unanswered question might be “Is this the first time?”

    Here’s a stocking stuffer that’s direction on point:

    More after this plug for our hosting service which is having a dandy CyberMonday Deal if you’re a webbly sort…

    There are two links to be away of:  One is for hosting and one is for domain registration.  Since the picture has the hosting link, the domain registration link is here.

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    Coping: With Growth–In Ecuador

    I have shared a good bit of common sense, plus a bit of out-there a ways (relative to the mainstream) ideas worth considering from colleague Bruce down in  Vilacabamba, Loja,  Ecuador.  That part of Ecuador is particularly attractive to Americans, especially those who seek a bit more privacy and less regulation when by comparison the USA has long ago slipped its constitutional moorings and is ominously drifting toward being the world’s first techno police state, if we aren’t already.

    I received a very kind email from another Vilacabama resident, which is reassuring on many fronts.  First it demonstrates that while UrbanSurvival readers may be a bit scarce (until market panic hits) we have a disproportionately large following in this part of Ecuador.  Perhaps there’s a statistical link between reading Urban, eating super-healthy natural foods, and sleeping in clear mountain air that keeps people sane.

    The second thing it teaches us is that sane people even in obscure places are beginning to grok the huge problem of growth.  To wit:

    Dear George:

    I am a longtime daily reader and a paid subscriber to Peoplenomics, and appreciate very much your efforts to keep us informed.

    You have mentioned several times your “faithful correspondent Bruce” in Ecuador. I happen to be his neighbor in this South American Shangri La. May I add a few of my own words to his about this most unusual hamlet in which we live.

    Our Andean hidden-away village, its origins lost in the mist of Pre-Incan history, has always been known as “The Valley of The Old Ones”, with its mountain people reportedly living longer and healthier than most other populations in the outside world. Even today it continues to grace its inhabitants (local, indigenous and expat alike) with abundant glacial water, unpolluted air, clean locally grown food and a relatively uncontaminated environment. 

    While we don’t have chemtrails and governmental mind control technologies invading our lives, we do have an increasing amount of electromagnetic radiation from cell towers and WiFi routers. What happens when human population centers are flooded with massive amounts of powerful wireless microwave radiation? Well, nobody really knows ….. yet.

    But we will soon.

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    The Great American Crime Business

    This being primo shopping time, we will keep today’s report short, sweet (or semi-sweet, as the case may be) and to the point.

    A number of readers have expressed concern with my outlook on civil disorder, particularly when I referred to the “business” of it in Friday’s UrbanSurvival report.

    So this morning a reality check:  What would the American economy look like without corrections corporations, lawyers police cars, prisons, deportations, TSA, criminal drug families, rehabs and all the rest of how we “Monetize Crime” and turn it into one of America’s most important economic sectors.

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    Checkbook Republic: How Much to Buy Ferguson Peace?

    Millions of people (including us) did online shopping on Turkey Day rather than wait for the click festival and parking brawls of Black Friday.  The rest of our holiday giving will be made as wire transfers and checks.

    When I write that, it sounds like a big deal, but the average transfer size is $100 with a larger check to the local food bank.

    There are no numbers to speak of yet – the real deal on that will come out next week, and this morning the market is worried about whether protests over Ferguson will continue or spread.  Fear is about, so look for the online e-tailers to make out like bandits.

    As we have opined previously, much of Ferguson has nothing to do with “justice for Brown” so much as it’s a chance for would-be revolutionaries to try out their street corner organizing skills, something America has about had it up to here with. 

    As an Associated Press story reveals, Brown’s hands were not up, at least above shoulder height.  But unlike some of the protesters, they actually took the time to read the facts.

    I’ve even had my liberal friends calling me to argue that it’s too easy for police to justify shooting of a civilian in Missouri.  That may be, and in which case it’s time for their legislature to address the problem, no doubt.  But underlying it is the matter of “rule of law” and is America going to be intimidated by latter day lynch mobs. 

    If it wasn’t Brown’s death, it would have been something else.  There is a class of people in ‘Merica who are spoiling for a fight over just about anything.  So they will line up for the free lunch.

    Yet the terrible truth is, suggested one reader, that if we pulled out the police and fire services that put their lives on the line in Ferguson (and elsewhere) and just left the community to show us how enlightened they are, many more square blocks would have been burned to the ground.

    Another reader asked:

    “Why do these people insist on burning down their own neighborhoods.  Can you please answer that?”

    The answer is simple, I wrote back,”Because when they do, we build them new ones.’ 

    It’s part of America’s Do-Over industry.  You have to understand how dissention and war is an industry.  In order to keep a country motivated, you need periodic wars to build a national mindset.  Adolph Hitler made this point in his second book – the one following Mein Kampf – the one that no one but me seems to have read.

    It works at all kinds of levels, too:  We could have left Japan in ruins to fend for themselves after WW II, or the whole of Europe, too.  But we didn’t and the reason is part altruistic and part blood and guts finance.  The bloody hands of finance are simple enough:  It’s a chance for Americans to get a better style of life while “committing rebuilding.”  Thank you Sony, Honda, Toyota, and Nissan.  And Kubota.

    To be sure, I might be accused of racism for having a decent memory, but when I use the term “revolutionaries” to describe the outside agitators who have gone to Ferguson (and elsewhere) to incite, there is ample support in the literature to back up my contention.

    For example, in a forward-looking paper in 1996, a scholar in the Foreign Military Studies group of the US Army made some very good observations:

    Many misunderstood the LA Riot of 1992 as predominantly a race riot. As witnessed by the California National Guard Field Commander, the riots were seen as a case study in urban warfare.10 The Guard’s counter-riot operations tell of the increasingly dangerous nature of military and police operations in the urban environment.

    Black gangs (Bloods and Crips) met a few days before the riots to establish a truce so that they could devote their efforts toward killing Los Angeles police. The riots allowed them to assert their influence on the streets.11 Later (on about 7 or 8 May, during the transition to normalcy), the organized gangs circulated a document calling for $3.726 billion to be spent on a Bloods/Crips law enforcement program, an educational program, a Los Angeles urban renewal program, and a human welfare program. The gangs suggested that Drug Lords would reinvest their funds in the city, and they would provide matching funds for AIDS research and awareness. “Meet these demands and the targeting of police officers will stop,” the gangs advised. By no means were the LA rioters all from black Bloods and Crips gangs. Over half of those arrested during the riots were Hispanics, and over a thousand of those were illegal immigrants, attesting to the inter-ethnic dynamic of the riot.12

    The paper “Combat in Cities: The LA Riots and Operation Rio” is still available online, here, and is worth a read.

    When I contend that the aftermath of Ferguson is one part local rage and five parts revolutionaries trying to get a foothold, the only item up for discussion is whether the FergRevs get traction.

    If you wanted to toss in one or two parts white guilt, that’d be fine, too.  But to attempt to derail (ironically timed) Black Friday shopping, as this report suggests, may be yet-another desperation move by the would-be revolutionaries in an attempt to make Brown more than what it is:  A tragedy in Ferguson, MO.

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